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US Election 2020 Thread


Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG

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Hi all,

Some info on what to expect this evening. Obviously these are my views, and should be taken as such (not advice etc).

Good luck!

 

Many states now on a knife-edge  - meaning this could easily turn into a landslide (hate the term) at the slightest shift.

 

The “Toss-up” States

High quality polls seem to be putting Texas & Nevada out Biden & Trump’s reach respectively. Yes Texas might swing, but no point reading this if it does.

Georgia may spike the Trump campaign. It is still marginal “Toss-up” / Lean Rep. due to a late drift to Biden, does appear this will revert to mean (not many high quality polls).

 

 

Polls close

Close (GMT)

First Results (GMT)

College votes

Texas

20:00:00

01:00:00

01:00:00

38.00

Georgia

20:00:00

01:00:00

01:00:00

12.00

Nevada

23:00:00

04:00:00

04:00:00

6.00

 

Assuming these fall as expected leaves you with:

 

Polls close

Close (GMT)

First Results (GMT)

College votes

North Carolina

19:30:00

00:30:00

00:30:00

15.00

Ohio

19:30:00

00:30:00

00:30:00

18.00

Florida

20:00:00

01:00:00

00:00:00

29.00

Pennsylvania

20:00:00

01:00:00

01:00:00

20.00

Michigan

21:00:00

02:00:00

01:00:00

16.00

Wisconsin

21:00:00

02:00:00

02:00:00

10.00

Arizona

21:00:00

02:00:00

03:00:00

11.00

 

 

North Carolina remains the most important state of the night (it’s out early – without it Trump cannot win)[1].

Ohio is, as usual, vital. Trump does just seem to be edging it here – again it’s a must win.

 

 

FL & PA

States

Polls close

Close (GMT)

First Results (GMT)

College votes

North Carolina

19:30:00

00:30:00

00:30:00

15.00

Ohio

19:30:00

00:30:00

00:30:00

18.00

Florida

20:00:00

01:00:00

00:00:00

29.00

Pennsylvania

20:00:00

01:00:00

01:00:00

20.00

Michigan

21:00:00

02:00:00

01:00:00

16.00

Wisconsin

21:00:00

02:00:00

02:00:00

10.00

Arizona

21:00:00

02:00:00

03:00:00

11.00

 

 

Pennsylvania (Biden’s backyard) has been getting all the love /media attention recently. Trump is struggling to catch Biden here.

For Trump to win either the polling is very inaccurate (more so than 2016), or turnout surges heavily in his favour.

Even the Trafalgar group have Trump struggling here in all but their most recent polls. Without PA again he can’t win[2].

Florida is Florida, Trump looks competitive, but must win it. Biden can live without, but might indicate where Arizona falls.

 

MI, WI, AZ

Michigan

21:00:00

02:00:00

01:00:00

16.00

Wisconsin

21:00:00

02:00:00

02:00:00

10.00

Arizona

21:00:00

02:00:00

03:00:00

11.00

 

Michigan & Wisconsin now look very difficult for Trump (Biden 4-6pts ahead in high quality polls). If Biden’s winning elsewhere its safe to write these off.

Final sting in the tail is Arizona – if Trump’s losing elsewhere then this is largely moot. Assuming he’s won Ohio, Florida & one more of the above, Arizona may still trip him up. -this hasn’t change, it’s close.

 

“What if the polls are wrong?”

 

They’d have to be very wrong – in a way that ruins credibility of the major pollsters. A high turnout (now inevitable) will skew this to an extent.

The “shy tory” phenomenon of 2015 fame has reappeared in the vocabulary of American pundits. There is little hard evidence of this in the states (plenty of anecdotal evidence). This & turnout will still likely be the talking points overnight.

 

 

Why are betting odds for Trump shorter than polls suggest?

Probably combination of Trump buyers & the above.

 

 

How best to watch / keep track of results?

On twitter:

@DailyFXTeam

@IGSquawk

Live DFX discussion on November 3rd at 11:00 AM ET here: https://bit.ly/2TNILnO

 

Online:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

 

These state maps were useful last time, updated links to follow(on the wiki):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/florida

 

 

[1] Yes it’s *possible*- but you’d be 0 bid on the chance.

[2] Also 0 bid on Trump winning without it.

 

image.png

image.png

image.png

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
1 hour ago, u0362565 said:

Never traded over an election nevermind one like this! Said to myself don't do anything until there is a winner but of course didn't do that. Looks choppy for a while.

US indices look like gaping up on the open on what is essentially a hung election that may take weeks to sort out.

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Just now, jlz said:

If you look at the url itself:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state

You can see how there isn't any column labeled %Turnout. Your picture is not only fake, it is cooked to spot people that don't check any data behind it.

Also the registered column doesn't match with what the website is showing. 

And if you look at the picture you will see there was more than one source sited and so the final tally was a composite from different sources one or more of which may have changed since the snapshot data was taken to make the composite.

oh dear, this just gets worse ...

image.png.c657a9562a6566ca270e43273846bf59.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
1 hour ago, jlz said:

ok I just wanted to leave the url there so people can check data for themselves and don't fall into your propaganda.

I am going to let you continue with your memes. Don't mind me.

Can't we keep this forum meme free?

I come here for trading/markets discussion. It's turning into Facebook with all the conspiracy theories, memes etc!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
1 minute ago, andysinclair said:

Can't we keep this forum meme free?

I come here for trading/markets discussion. It's turning into Facebook with all the conspiracy theories, memes etc!

why should the forum be meme free?

probably would be better if was free from peeps coming on just to promote their own pay for services though.

Link to comment
16 minutes ago, andysinclair said:

Can't we keep this forum meme free?

I come here for trading/markets discussion. It's turning into Facebook with all the conspiracy theories, memes etc!

yes we can, but I am not sure why you are asking me? I never posted a meme.

Link to comment
  • 2 weeks later...
On 15/11/2020 at 19:56, PlumptiousPatricia said:

 

 

Madam,

May I ask why you are so nosy?

What are YOU trading on right now?

As for this Joseph Biden, will be be a leader strong and true - like Josef Stalin?

Please do advise.

Patricia's Plumptious Beauties

Hey @PlumptiousPatricia

I posted this to inform community members. The reason I ask is to open up a discussion. 

I can't have an opinion on this forum as I work for IG and we're not able to advise or influence trading.  

All the best 

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