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THT

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Hello All,

Let me take you on a journey of the markets - people say the markets are random (they're NOT), crashes come out of the blue (they DON'T) and it is totally impossible to PREDICT the markets (It IS'NT)

We're told buy and hold is best - It is for the fund management industry and to be fair for 95% of traders it probably is correct, but not for all of us

Have you ever wondered WHY a market suddenly crashes, rallies or does something unexpected? - I did

Now here's my CAVEAT to what I'm about to show you - "It IS possible within a zone to predict the markets in terms of TIME, I believe it is impossible to predict PRICE levels"

Also not every Time Cycle causes the market to move significantly - but with a win/hit rate of 85%+ It's pretty **** well good 

Look and follow the SEQUENCE in the charts below - I won't be revealing the factors that causes the Time Cycles - Just bear in mind I refer ALOT to WD Gann - This is his Law of Vibration at play - Also there's "Cycles within Cycles" WD Gann referred to this as "Wheels within Wheels" in his writings

Once you have the sequence you can extrapolate this 500,1000,2000 years into the future too and i bet it will still work then!

In the immediate chart below various long-term cycles are shown (There are more but I've not shown them - namely 1974, 1987, the blip in 1990, 2003 and of course 2009)

I'm fully aware that there's commercial traders on here - Information will be limited to avoid them ripping it off and selling it! - It happens!

REMEMBER the SAME Colour market cycle shown below have been calculated from 1897 and they simply "repeat" - so what you see on the chart are the dates produced from that original calculation

There is a 16-19 year stock market cycle that rotates in a UP/DOWN sequence - The BLUE lines are that cycle (its NOT a static/set cycle), within the Blue market cycle the RED Market cycle (different cycle) operates - this either STARTS or ENDS the BLUE market cycle

Within the BLUE & RED market cycles are the GREEN and the BLACK market cycles - IF the 16-19 yr market cycle is UP it produces the GREEN cycle if DOWN then the Black cycle is produced

IGNORE the PINK cycle

Now if the market cycle that connects the 1974 low and the 2009 low was shown, then that cycle is absolutely riddled in Fibonacci - WD Gann produced a course called the "Square of 12" - 12 x 12 = 144 - that particular market cycle conforms exactly to 144 or square of 12 or simply a side of a golden triangle which is 144 degrees opposite

Keep telling you the markets respect and work off absolute concrete science principles

Now in the chart below you can see I produced that chart in May 2015 - find the LAST RED cycle line date and go see what the markets did on that day and the days that followed Oh and by the way Gann said everything works out in a circle - the platonic solid that the blue lines draw out within a circle is truly amazing

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Now, we'll have a quick gander at some of the INTERNALS of the 16-18 year cycle

You should notice that the START date in the chart below is 4th Nov 2016, in the chart above you'll notice i had it down as 6th Dec 2016 - 1 months difference! Because the market cycles are large this is totally fine ad the market has sync'd from 4th Nov 2016

The 1st cycle from 2016 was due in Dec 2018 (Turquoise Line) and the 2nd cycle Feb 2020 (Pink Line) - BOTH resulted in market turns on or around said times!

You will notice that the next occurrence of the Turquoise line arrives in Feb 2021- The market should react around that date to some degree

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For those still with me - The market cycle that started in Nov 2016 is UP - that is because the cycle in 2000-2016 was DOWN/SIDEWAYS as expected - Overall the market will climb as per 1982-2000 and 1949-1966 upwards over the course of this market cycle, then when it ends in the 2030's the crash will reach the 50% retracement line or thereabouts and stop - but importantly this crash will "come out of the blue" to the trading community!

Markets are patterned, they follow the track that the Time Cycle puts down for them - the charts above are for the USA stock markets namely the Nasdaq100 and the SP500 - I've shown the SP500 but the Nasdaq100 will show a closer correlation as its the speculators market of choice

What I am attempting to do here is PREDICT the TIMES that the market will increase volatility and some of those times should result in crashes, plunges and rallies of a decent amount

Safe Trading - not advice but information - trade at your own risk and don't trade blind dates, they need to be backed up by trading set-ups to confirm

THT

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  • 1 month later...

We've got 7 trading days after todays session left until this TC arrives 

Markets getting nice and volatile in the build up to it - you will see that all the "rational reasoning" for the markets increased volatility around these key dates can be poo pooed as we go forward because I'll publish the dates of the TC's well in advance, so that you can see the TC date published months/years in advance and then the "news" around it

This TC due 10th Feb is the EXACT same TC that arrived at the Dec 2018 low - is this significant? Well it's the same TC that's been present at lots of turns for the past 100 years and it was present at the March 6th LOW of 2009 too! Compared to the Feb 2020 TC this one is a tamer TC, but it does move things, this is the TC's 2nd Occurrence since the major TC commenced in Nov 2016

Whatever happens as traders we have a proven TC date very very close - we need to be prepared as we don't know the extent (IF ANY) of any reaction - but to not be alert to the date would be a crime 

ALREADY in the build up to this TC date the 2nd to LAST sentence (What I am attempting to do here......) from the post above is already true

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Ignore the candlesticks they "squish" together to fit the chart layout

Kudos to WD GANN and BFC for their works in Time and Time Cycles

Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible  for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only

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  • 4 weeks later...

The one thing with the markets is although you can predict WHEN, you can't predict with consistent accuracy the PRICE LEVEL they will rise or fall to

As is proven in the post above WELL before the time and INADVANCE 

I'll do a more complete and fuller review following the next TC date of 4th June 2021

Reaction to the 4th June Date? This TC (Please note TC's of the SAME colour are linked - Different coloured TC's are well as the name suggests - different TC and different degrees) in the past has been very hit and miss, it should cause a reaction but how much and to what degree I can't say

The chart below is of the Nasdaq100 Index

So far the TC's have a 100% hit rate  - I don't want to publish next years chart before 4th June TC has been and gone, as it will mess up the sequence of the thread - to prove that there is no fudging the dates - the 1 and only TC for 2022 is due on and around 4th April (you can compare the dates shown when I publish that chart after June this year to prove no foul play)

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Kudos to WD GANN and BFC for their works on Time and Time Cycles

Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible  for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only

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The market can do A LOT  in the next few months until the next TC date - as a general basic rule of thumb if the market is falling into a TC then it should halt and rally, vice versa for a rising market into a TC as has been seen in the NASDAQ100 for the Feb 10th TC

Listen, any fool can make money from the markets (I was that fool for years lol), millions of them do so passively via buying and holding without a clue as to what is going on in the markets, so you don't need to understand or know anything about TC's at all to be successful in the markets - the purpose of this thread is to SHOW you the markets are not random - it takes geniuses to work out how to time them - Hats off as always to WD GANN  and BFC for publishing works that led me down this road

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OK so lets look at the next TC due 4th June 2021

Look closely and you will SEE that the THICK BROWN date lines are the exact same as the BLUE TC date lines in the 1st chart posted in this thread - This IS the cycle that DRIVES the markets - it IS ABOSLUTELY responsible the UP/DOWN sequence of the market 

The THIN BROWN TC date lines for internally to the THICK BROWN date lines and they are HARMONICALLY structured - EVERY like for like cycle (down and down, UP and UP etc) will have a very similar FORM visually to all previous like for like cycles - its exactly why the nasdaq100 in 2000-2003 resembled the Dow from 1929-1932 (and onwards!) (same cycle repeating just in a different era)

So - we can see in the chart below their influence in the 1998-2016 cycle - this cycle tends to be fairly turbulent in DOWN major cycles, as the period 1998-2016 WAS a DOWN cycle, that cycle changed from down to UP as mentioned previously in Nov 2016

The Internals during an UP cycle as we are in I hesitate to say will not, so I'll say should not be as bad as in the Down cycles and that of 1998-2016, but they could cause significant turning points up or down

Remember right throughout an UP cycle the pullbacks and corrections will mostly be minor in the grand scheme of things and they will ALL be quickly and easily recovered, just as 2018 and the "big one" of Feb 2020!

I've been asked about 1987 - It's coming in the next few years - will post closer to the time, the dates have been on the chart below since 2015 and that's what the scrubbed out text on the chart mentions

You can pay thousands for bad middle of the road technical analysis none of which will show you any of this - I plan to publish all the key cycle dates going forward - there is the 1987 cycle to come, also look at the chart below, eyeball 1994 - imagine KNOWING that was going to be a massive acceleration turning point up into the highs before the whole major cycle stopped and turn downwards - well guess what, those points ONLY occur in an overall UP cycle and we've been in an UP cycle since Nov 2016! That SAME rally is going to happen all over again THIS DECADE

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Disclaimer - Trade at your own risk and only if you understand a method 100% - THT will not be held responsible  for anyone's losses other than his own - posts for information purposes only

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2 hours ago, Ozquant said:

There are no ABSOLUTES in markets ,only probabilities but carry on  

Oh I'm afraid there are a couple - thanks for your permission to carry on lol

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Really enjoying your missives re market timing. Thank you for your continued diligence. Interesting and informative. Left field too, which is satisfying. Your understanding of the methods of WD Gann are profound, though suspect WDG adopted said methods rather than originally authored them. 

Btw, suspect Oil market will retrace from Monday/Tuesday, till 23rd March(ish) then resume it's bullish trend. 

Have a great weekend and look forward to your next update. 

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I was going to keep this thread specifically for the stock market, but I'll slip this one in for educational purposes - please note the cycles that form in the Stock market are different in times to the commodity markets 

Everyone that has NOT researched or looked at the markets properly will tell you that the markets are "Random", "It's Time in the Market, NOT Timing the market" etc etc.........BS

Right Let me explain: This is the CORN market (Soybean market is VERY VERY Similar)

Ultra basic cycle analysis - but shows WHY you should be looking back decades!

Within the Corn market there is a 4 year cycle

The BLUE circles show the 4 year cycles hitting LOWS every 4 years (not exact 4 yr periods!) AND

The PINK circles show the 4 year cycles hitting HIGHS every 4 years (not exact 4yr periods!)

As we can see this cycle hits every 4 years, there's a cycle of importance EVERY 2 years throughout this sequence = TRADING OPPORTUNITY!!!!!!!!

Now only if it were that simple! There is a slight fly in the ointment - the INVERSION points!

As you can see the INVERSIONS cam e in bang on time but instead of being a low or high they inverted to a high or low point!

You could still trade these - as all you have to do is identify what the market is doing in the run up to the date

For those of you that haven't worked it out, let me show you the opportunities:

  • Blue to Pink cycle period = 2 years - If Blue is a LOW, then prices are going UP for 2 years -that simple!
  • Pink to Blue cycle period = 2 years - If Pink is a HIGH, then prices are going DOWN for 2 years!
  • Notice the cycles are turn points - they do not have to be extreme high/low points - this is important

The Inversion points cause some issues and reverse things - but NOT precisely I'm afraid!

You should also note that 2018 to 2020 was a L-L cycle, 2018 + 4 years = 2022 AND as Pink 2020 Inversion was a LOW then we expect the 2 year cycle to BLUE will be in 2022 too, which fits with the pattern or 4 yr and 2 yr cycles syncing

The question is will BLUE 4 yr cycle be a LOW or an Inversion High point again?

Who cares - you can devise trading methods to trade either way! Look at the last PINK Inversion point, it was clear at the beginning of 2020 that is was going to be a LOW - In my How to Win thread, I've shown Gann's secondary reaction as an entry set-up, that formed!

Part of this game is KNOWING when in the future turns should happen - I'm showing you the stock markets in this thread, in this post I'm showing you another way to analyse markets

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As usual don't trade if you can't form a logical trading decision, as you're responsible for your own trading results

Permission is not granted to replicate this post at all

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  • 3 weeks later...

Tale of 2 charts

We have non-conformance in the USA Indices BUT both are displaying corrective overlapping formations

SP500 is printing new highs and the Nasdaq is still trying to rally to prev highs

Most USA and "maybe" the UK Indices will conform to the Time Cycles at some "degree" (The nasdaq100 is THE chart to watch for the TC's)

As you will note in the thread above the Feb TC was pre-warned/forecast whatever you wish to call it - we've had a reaction as can be seen below - next TC is early June 

Again we should have some sort major or minor reaction to it in the days around it (although out of all the TC's this is the one in a overall major UP trend to react the LEAST badly) but all we can done is wait and see

The key is we are aware of the date in advance and ahead of 99.9% of all other traders out there!

Remember - the June TC is the harmonic of the BROWN TC lines in a chart shown above - the overall cycle in that chart shown above was a DOWN cycle - the cycle changed from DOWN to UP on the thick brown line of 2016 - so you can't compare like for like now (markets act differently in down and up overall cycles) 

I know what I am saying is forecasting the markets - I'll do a quick review in May as we'll have more price on the chart by then and it might be in a position to give further clues 

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As usual don't trade if you can't form a logical trading decision, as you're responsible for your own trading results not me.

Permission is not granted to replicate this post at all

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On 12/03/2021 at 15:55, 786Trader said:

Really enjoying your missives re market timing. Thank you for your continued diligence. Interesting and informative. Left field too, which is satisfying. Your understanding of the methods of WD Gann are profound, though suspect WDG adopted said methods rather than originally authored them. 

Btw, suspect Oil market will retrace from Monday/Tuesday, till 23rd March(ish) then resume it's bullish trend. 

Have a great weekend and look forward to your next update. 

Well done on the retracement bit. What was your forecast based on? What trends did you spot?

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 02/04/2021 at 12:58, Ikechukwu said:

Well done on the retracement bit. What was your forecast based on? What trends did you spot?

Technicals were all at their peak. Moving averages were due to cross and did. Trigger point. Normal retracement suggested 8-13% down trend, especially after such a sustained Bull run. Hedge Funds took their profits and freed up some cash while remaining Bullish in overall outlook.  Been on holiday from trading subsequent to retracement, as was knackered and had had a good couple of months, so figured it was better to chill out than burn out. Back on it now though and took some time to investigate likely algorithms for future trading strategies. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hello All

We are closing in to one month to go until the final Time Cycle of the year

Remember we have NO IDEA that it will work - it could be a mega volatility period or it just be a flat squib affair with an average correction

Context we have to remember IS - In 2016 the overall market changed from down to UP - TC's act and behave differently in EACH of the 2 types of Time Cycle!

As we can see the expected and published in advance TC date for Feb caused the USA market to stutter and stall

4th June is fast approaching.................Lets see if/what happens

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This is the sequence for the 4th June TC

As you can see I first published the future dates way back in 2017 [yellow date section on the chart]

I applied the Time Cycle sequence/spacing from Sept 1998 as that was when the last UP cycle ended and the down cycle started - Other cycles [not shown] actually start and end the appropriate cycle

To see this scroll up to the very 1st chart posted in this thread - the RED and PINK TC's dates caused the top in 2000 and the 2015 LOW

As we can see knowing this TC we could have predicted the 2003 LOW and the 2007 HIGH before the plunge into 2009 (2009 could have been predicted by another cycle)

This particular cycle works best during the DOWN TC phases especially the 1st 2 occurrences of the cycle during that down cycle as can be evidenced below

I suppose if you take one thing away from this - its the end date of the UP cycle - if you've been paying attention, the RED Time Cycle in the 1st chart in this thread lands AFTER the thick BROWN TC line/date [but not by much] - so watch out for the ultimate TOP in that year!

For the record - the THICK Brown cycle lines = DENOTE the Time Cycle that CONTROLS and dominates the USA stock market - this is what causes the UP/DOWN 16-19 year stock market cycle - all other cycles shown sync into and within THIS cycle

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As usual don't trade if you can't form a logical trading decision, as you're responsible for your own trading results not me.

Permission is not granted to replicate this post at all

 

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  • 1 month later...

Looks like it's a flat squib affair for the SP500 - I'm away early next week, but I'd give this until Tuesday (max 3 weeks after the physical date) to do something otherwise I'm marking it down as a failure

Which is not bad, out of all the TC's this one is the one to be most concerned won't work, especially during an UP Bullish major cycle, which is what we are in, but the expectation was for the market to react as per May 2012 as shown on the Internal cycle harmonic chart in the post directly above

So unless we get a 7%+ correction from the highs next week - I'll simply log this as failed - remember we trade the market NOT the Time Cycle 

The small correction into the actual date is NOT good enough to say that was it! - We should be able to see these corrections/upswings clearly on a monthly chart, which means they should be of significance

I'll hold off publishing the next Time Cycle just in case something happens next week

SP500 Index Daily Chart: data to Thursday 17th June 2021

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One thing we need to observe as time passes is price action from the TC date - you could "technically" say the TC worked if we get a sprawled out trading range from the TC date

I'm not classing it as that though - I'm ultra hard with the markets, it either works as expected or it gets logged as a failure - this series of TC's (the brown TC lines in the chart 2 posts above) in a 17 yr BULL cycle market don't work as well as the exact same ones in a 17 yr Bear cycle market

Remember not all these TC's work so you need to have trading strategies in place for trading them if they display characteristics that say it's here and happening and you need to have a strategy in place if it doesn't show up - I definitely don't trade these dates blind

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Here's the next Time Cycle date of significance:

4th April 2022

As you can see this is the first occurrence of this particular Time Cycle in this 17yr UP cycle market

So we won't know if its sync'd and relevant until it arrives - we've not got a cast iron 100% certain TC for a little while yet (there's only a couple of them in existence and they arrive at certain specific times)  

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  • 3 weeks later...
1 hour ago, Ozquant said:

No Absolutes  as  previously stated , carry on  .  🤐

Oh you're one of those types

There are a couple of absolutes in trading - I never said this TC was one of them, in fact I said it was least likely to work out of all those I'll show - but some of them shown in charts above are absolutes so far to date in 227 years of stock market history with a 100% hit record

I'll give you credit for trying, as 10 years ago I was of the opinion there were no absolutes in this game too

 

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i'm one of "those types" too.. thinking there are "absolutes" in trading is dangerous.. a lot of hedge funds thought there was absolutely no way a rapidly-sinking dinosaur like Gamestop would hit even $20 - never mind $60... a few weeks later it was $350..

I didn't read a word of your original posts btw - nothing personal, i just don't consume trade ideas at all, anywhere.

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5 minutes ago, LloydB said:

i'm one of "those types" too.. thinking there are "absolutes" in trading is dangerous.. a lot of hedge funds thought there was absolutely no way a rapidly-sinking dinosaur like Gamestop would hit even $20 - never mind $60... a few weeks later it was $350..

I didn't read a word of your original posts btw - nothing personal, i just don't consume trade ideas at all, anywhere.

I know exactly what you are saying, unfortunately there's a huge number of you out there and always will be - If you can come to me and say listen I've read almost everything out there and tested it, then you cannot say there are or aren't any givens in trading, because I'm afraid there are a couple and that's because many years ago I actually spent years reading and testing most of what was out there - so my "absolutes" come with 1) research, 2) physical testing and 3) no guessing

Now I've not actually said what the absolutes are and I never will to a public forum, but when someone comes to me and says there are no absolutes in trading when I know that they are simply wrong, I will correct them

I have never listened to hedge funds, fund managers or business news since 2009

I don't take things personal - don't have the time or the patience for the drama - I had the exact same attitude years back, if you weren't a professional trader, trading your own money for a living then I wasn't interested a jolt what anyone said about the markets, because as 95% end up failing, their thoughts, opinions and posts are basically a load of tosh based on what they think, not what they know

 

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