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A moment of truth for JPY/EUR/GBP!


Mercury

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It's like buses, you wait around for ages and then 2 or 3 show up at the same time.  I guess with global markets being connected this is not a surprise and in fact could be seen as a good thing.

 

I have been tracking EURJPY and GBPJPY while USDJPY has been on its rampage.  It seems to me that both of these pairs are at a moment where they will either breakout through a long term tramline on continued Yen weakness and perhaps temporary EUR and GBP retrace strength OR the Yen will go into retrace strength along with the others.  It seems that USDJPY could indeed be coming up upon an area of resistance and EURUSD is at its own pivotal point.  GBPUSD look to have already commenced a decent retrace, I'm looking for a retest of the Flag in or around the 13000 area initially.  As EURGBP seems almost ready for a relief rally then EURUSD can't be far behind GBP (Italian Referendum not withstanding).

 

If you look deeper than the Weekly charts I have posted below, into the Daily charts, you may see a complex retrace pattern on EURJPY, which could suggest the Wave 4 retrace is due to complete.  Of course there is always the chance that the Wave 4 retrace will travel further to the Fib 38% (GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY) kicking our beyond the tramline only to return down, as happens a lot with Wave 4s.

 

Don't know which way this goes but price action over the coming days should tell the tale.

 



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With $-Y the way i see it is that ultimately we will head to 118 level in the medium term, before having a deeper retracement possibly? Without doubt Kuroda is jumping for joy along with Abe, but dollar bullishness is not infinite, and a deeper pull back will occur, for me a key break will be the 4 hourly rising trend line, but until this occurs, i would rather look for bullish entries and keep adding fuel to the fire, without doubt the fed are very worried about this and so our emerging markets who have borrowed everything in dollars. 



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You have to admit it is a stunning chart, half of the 1 year gains whipped out in a matter of days, the money is moving brother. Note also the daily DOW index, up spike - flag - upside continuation. Proves it doesn't pay to be married to a bias.

Just follow the money, of course there will a correction some time, but who cares when, as Peter To says to the doom sayers, 'even a broken clock will be right twice a day'.

If you play these charts and have missed these rallies then you are not actually trading.

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