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Trading Vs investing


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Hi all, excuse my nievety on the subject but given that a lot of buy and hold investments are index tracking. Would it be so bad to open a long futures position at the start of every month on an index and close it at the end of each month and repeat. It's not intelligent but given stock markets tend to close up more than they close down wouldn't you end up on top? Also your adding leverage into the mix to amplify the capital you can play with compared to investing where it may have less of an impact.

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4 hours ago, u0362565 said:

Hi all, excuse my nievety on the subject but given that a lot of buy and hold investments are index tracking. Would it be so bad to open a long futures position at the start of every month on an index and close it at the end of each month and repeat. It's not intelligent but given stock markets tend to close up more than they close down wouldn't you end up on top? Also your adding leverage into the mix to amplify the capital you can play with compared to investing where it may have less of an impact.

Refer to my THT NEW MOON thread which is very very similar - I'm updating that thread next few mins too!

All depends if using stops and targets? But YES it would work to some degree

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I think I'm one of those people trying to be clever and think of some new way to trade the markets and your simple system works better. Point proved :) it might be overly simplistic to you but I wondered if your R/R ratio and method of moving the stop is actually as good as any other method? Our similar to what you'd do in reality? 

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11 hours ago, u0362565 said:

I think I'm one of those people trying to be clever and think of some new way to trade the markets and your simple system works better. Point proved :) it might be overly simplistic to you but I wondered if your R/R ratio and method of moving the stop is actually as good as any other method? Our similar to what you'd do in reality? 

Listen Trading is really really hard but the SIMPLEST systems probably work best - in this game being smart or ultra clever is a hindrance

I've been EXACTLY where you're at right now - you need to remember ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING has already been thought of, tried and tested - absolutely everything

There's one big positive here - at least you're thinking, most don't even do that

Re the NEW MOON method - I made the rules up in about 5 seconds - so I have not nor will I back test to see if more optimum stop money management placement would be better - I think over the past 10 years its returned about 5% per annum on average, which is not that good, last year it returned 55% but that was an exceptional one off year

By widening the stop some of those stopped out trades would have gone on to be winning trades so messing with the stop placement would have worked yes - to what exact extent i don't know

I DO NOT TRADE THE NEW MOON METHOD - I'm only publishing it so that you can see that by GUESSING you can still trade, win and that trading is ALL about the laws of PROBABILITY

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