Jump to content

Trading Vs investing


Recommended Posts

Hi all, excuse my nievety on the subject but given that a lot of buy and hold investments are index tracking. Would it be so bad to open a long futures position at the start of every month on an index and close it at the end of each month and repeat. It's not intelligent but given stock markets tend to close up more than they close down wouldn't you end up on top? Also your adding leverage into the mix to amplify the capital you can play with compared to investing where it may have less of an impact.

Link to comment
4 hours ago, u0362565 said:

Hi all, excuse my nievety on the subject but given that a lot of buy and hold investments are index tracking. Would it be so bad to open a long futures position at the start of every month on an index and close it at the end of each month and repeat. It's not intelligent but given stock markets tend to close up more than they close down wouldn't you end up on top? Also your adding leverage into the mix to amplify the capital you can play with compared to investing where it may have less of an impact.

Refer to my THT NEW MOON thread which is very very similar - I'm updating that thread next few mins too!

All depends if using stops and targets? But YES it would work to some degree

Link to comment

I think I'm one of those people trying to be clever and think of some new way to trade the markets and your simple system works better. Point proved :) it might be overly simplistic to you but I wondered if your R/R ratio and method of moving the stop is actually as good as any other method? Our similar to what you'd do in reality? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
11 hours ago, u0362565 said:

I think I'm one of those people trying to be clever and think of some new way to trade the markets and your simple system works better. Point proved :) it might be overly simplistic to you but I wondered if your R/R ratio and method of moving the stop is actually as good as any other method? Our similar to what you'd do in reality? 

Listen Trading is really really hard but the SIMPLEST systems probably work best - in this game being smart or ultra clever is a hindrance

I've been EXACTLY where you're at right now - you need to remember ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING has already been thought of, tried and tested - absolutely everything

There's one big positive here - at least you're thinking, most don't even do that

Re the NEW MOON method - I made the rules up in about 5 seconds - so I have not nor will I back test to see if more optimum stop money management placement would be better - I think over the past 10 years its returned about 5% per annum on average, which is not that good, last year it returned 55% but that was an exceptional one off year

By widening the stop some of those stopped out trades would have gone on to be winning trades so messing with the stop placement would have worked yes - to what exact extent i don't know

I DO NOT TRADE THE NEW MOON METHOD - I'm only publishing it so that you can see that by GUESSING you can still trade, win and that trading is ALL about the laws of PROBABILITY

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Global markets have kicked off the week on a largely positive note ahead of major central bank meetings and data releases that will impact rate hike expectations. Japan's Nikkei index moved on past 40,000, having enjoyed a strong rally so far this year, buoyed by tech and AI stocks like Tokyo Electron. The Nikkei has benefitted from a shift towards tech nearshoring as foreign funds leave Chinese markets. Japanese Tokyo inflation data on Tuesday will test whether price rises are slowing as expected after base effects. Markets expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates and yield curve control in April given strong wage growth. Japan may also declare an end to deflation this week, further supporting policy tightening. Upbeat Q4 GDP data suggests Japan may have avoided recession after all. China's National People's Congress this week could unveil new stimulus measures and set a 5% 2022 GDP target. Attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony midweek for any fresh rate hike signals. Friday's US jobs report could also shift expectations if hiring remains robust in February after January's strong gains.  
    • USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart, 1 March 24   U.S.Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Day Chart USD/CHF Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend   MODE: Impulsive   STRUCTURE: blue wave 1   POSITION: Black wave 3   DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES:blue wave 1 (started)   DETAILS: blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 0.88958 . Now blue wave 1 of 3 is in play . Wave Cancel invalid level: 0.88958   The "USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart" dated 1 March 24, provides an in-depth examination of the U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) currency pair using Elliott Wave analysis. The analysis, conducted on the daily chart, is geared towards understanding the prevailing trend dynamics and forecasting potential future movements within the broader wave structure. The identified "FUNCTION" is "Trend," indicating that the analysis is primarily concerned with identifying and navigating the existing trend in the USD/CHF pair. The focus is on capturing the directional movement of prices over a more extended period. The specified "MODE" is "Impulsive," suggesting that the current market conditions are characterized by forceful and decisive price movements aligned with the overall trend. This implies that the USD/CHF pair is exhibiting strong directional momentum. The described "STRUCTURE" is "Blue wave 1," representing a specific phase within the Elliott Wave pattern. The analysis emphasizes the development and progression of blue wave 1, indicating a significant upward movement within the broader wave structure. The identified "POSITION" is "Black wave 3," signifying the current placement within the larger Elliott Wave pattern. Black wave 3 represents a higher-degree wave, suggesting a powerful phase in the upward trend of the USD/CHF pair. Regarding "DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES," the emphasis is on "Blue wave 1 (started)." This highlights the initiation of the next phase within the Elliott Wave pattern, indicating the continuation of the upward trend. The "DETAILS" section notes that "blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 0.88958." This signifies the completion of a specific subwave within the Elliott Wave pattern. It further states that "blue wave 1 of 3 is in play," indicating the continuation of the upward trend and the start of the next higher-degree wave. The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is set at 0.88958, serving as a crucial reference point. A breach beyond this level would invalidate the current wave count, necessitating a reassessment of the analysis. In summary, the USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis for the daily chart on 1 March 24, underscores a focus on the impulsive and trending nature of the market. The analysis anticipates the continuation of the upward trend, with specific attention to the completion of sub waves and the initiation of the next higher-degree wave. The Wave Cancel invalid level at 0.88958 serves as a critical marker for potential shifts in the wave count and trend dynamics.   USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour  Chart, 1 March 24   U.S.Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 4 Hour Chart USD/CHF Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend   MODE: Impulsive   STRUCTURE: blue wave 1   POSITION: Black wave 3   DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES:blue wave1 (started)   DETAILS: blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 0.88958 . Now blue wave 1 of 3 is in play . Wave Cancel invalid level: 0.88958   The "USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour Chart" dated 1 March 24, presents a detailed technical analysis of the U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) currency pair using Elliott Wave principles. The analysis primarily focuses on the 4-hour chart, emphasizing the current phase and potential future movements within the broader structure. The identified "FUNCTION" is "Trend," indicating that the analysis is oriented towards capturing and understanding the prevailing direction of the market. In this case, the emphasis is on recognizing and navigating the existing trend in the USD/CHF pair. The specified "MODE" is "Impulsive," suggesting that the current market conditions are characterized by strong and decisive price movements in the direction of the trend. This aligns with the overall trend function identified in the analysis. The described "STRUCTURE" is "Blue wave 1," which represents a specific phase within the Elliott Wave pattern. The analysis focuses on the development and progression of blue wave 1 as part of the broader wave structure. The identified "POSITION" is "Black wave 3," indicating the current placement within the larger Elliott Wave pattern. Black wave 3 signifies a higher-degree wave within the overall structure, suggesting a significant and powerful phase in the upward trend. Regarding "DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES," the emphasis is on "Blue wave 1 (started)." This highlights the initiation of the next phase within the Elliott Wave pattern, reinforcing the impulsive nature of the current trend. The "DETAILS" section notes that "blue wave Y of 2 looking completed at 0.88958." This signifies the completion of a specific subwave within the Elliott Wave pattern, and it states that "blue wave 1 of 3 is in play," indicating the continuation of the upward trend. The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is set at 0.88958, serving as a crucial reference point. A breach beyond this level would invalidate the current wave count, prompting a reevaluation of the analysis. In summary, the USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis for the 4-hour chart on 1 March 24, underscores a focus on the impulsive and trending nature of the market. The analysis anticipates the continuation of the upward trend, with specific attention to the completion of sub waves and the initiation of the next higher-degree wave. The Wave Cancel invalid level at 0.88958 serves as a critical marker for potential shifts in the wave count and trend dynamics. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!    
    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 4 March 24, Dogecoin/ U.S. dollar(DOGEUSD) DOGEUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Follow Trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave III Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave (I) of Impulse Wave Cancel invalid Level: 0.0770 Details: Wave III is Equal to 161.8% of Wave I at 0.1575 Dogecoin/ U.S. dollar(DOGEUSD)Trading Strategy: Dogecoin has entered a full-blown uptrend. Which is currently an increase of Wave III with a chance to test the level of 0.1575. Therefore, Dogecoin overall is in an uptrend. And there is still a chance to increase continuously. Dogecoin/ U.S. dollar(DOGEUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an Uptrend, Wave Oscillator is a bullish Momentum. TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod, CEWA Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!         Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4Hr Chart, 4 March 24, Dogecoin/ U.S. dollar(DOGEUSD) DOGEUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Follow Trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave III Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave (I) of Impulse Wave Cancel invalid Level: 0.0770 Details: Wave III is Equal to 161.8% of Wave I at 0.1575 Dogecoin/ U.S. dollar(DOGEUSD)Trading Strategy: Dogecoin has entered a full-blown uptrend. Which is currently an increase of Wave III with a chance to test the level of 0.1575. Therefore, Dogecoin overall is in an uptrend. And there is still a chance to increase continuously. Dogecoin/ U.S. dollar(DOGEUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an Uptrend, Wave Oscillator is a bullish Momentum.    
×
×
  • Create New...
us