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10/06/21 10:53
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Gold on the rise, as Brent crude and natural gas show signs of impending weakness Ongoing trends look likely to continue, with gold grinding higher as Brent crude and natural gas show signs of potential impending weakness. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023 Gold grinds higher after collapse into trendline support Gold ended last week with a bang as price collapsed into a fresh four-week low. However, despite growing calls for a reversal across a number of asset classes, this week has seen equity markets and the dollar turn back in the direction of their prevailing trend. Given the close correlation between the dollar and gold, this signals the potential for another move higher for precious metals if money does not flow into the dollar. For gold, the current grind higher looks likely to continue, with a break back below the recent low of $1861 required to create a fresh bearish outlook. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude rebound takes price back up towards descending trendline Brent crude has spent much of the week regaining lost ground following a bearish turn that saw $10 sliced off the price in the space of a fortnight. The wider trend does remain bearish, with the descending trendline and Fibonacci resistance levels bringing the potential for another bearish turn before long. With price currently at the 61.8% retracement ($85.20), there is a good chance we see the bears come into play before long. Watch for a move through 80 on the stochastic to signal a bearish turn from a momentum perspective. To the upside, we would need to see a push up through the $89.01 resistance level to bring confidence of a more protracted bullish rebound. Source: ProRealTime Natural gas turns lower from Fibonacci resistance Natural gas has turned lower once again after a rebound in the early part of the week. This is a market that has been a consistent performer for the bears, with the relatively balmy European winter ensuring that storage levels remain well topped up throughout the drawdown period of the year. While we did see a push into the 76.4% Fibonacci level on Tuesday, price has been reversing lower in line with the wider bearish trend. With a very consistent bearish trend still in play, we would need to see a push up through the $2.789 swing-high to bring about a more positive outlook. Until then, further downside looks likely. Source: ProRealTime -
ASX 200 afternoon report: 9th of February 2023 Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market. Updated as of 9th February, 3.00 pm AEDT. Source: Bloomberg Indices ASX Coal Dividend S&P/ASX 200 Interest rate Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023 The ASX 200 trades 43 points (-0.57%) lower at 7487 at 3.00 pm Sydney time. The ASX 200 has slumped today, taking its lead from a fall on Wall Street, as Fed Speakers hit the wires to beat the hawkish drums and remind markets that higher rates will be required for longer to bring down inflation. IT sector The tech sector experienced losses today, led by Google. Google fell 7.44% after its new AI intelligence chatbot Bard underwhelmed Sezzle fell 8.53% ZIP fell 5.91% Megaport fell 5.65% as it elected not to pay a dividend Novonix fell 4.72% to $1.72. AGL fell 11% after reporting a loss of $ 1.1 billion for the first half of the year. It also slashed guidance and its interim dividend to 8c per share. Elsewhere, Real Estate heavyweight Mirvac slumped 5% to $2.28 as wet weather, interest rate hikes, and labour shortages limited its first-half earnings. Financial sector The pressure of this week’s RBA rate hike and intensification in the fight for new deposits has hada negative effect on all banks apart from ANZ. ANZ has added 0.23% to $23.85 after its upbeat trading update NAB fell 0.8% to $31.80 Westpac fell 0.36% to $23.82 CBA fell 0.4% to $109.89. Mining sector The 40% fall in the price of coal out of Newcastle since the start of the year continues to weigh on the coal miners. Whitehaven coal fell 5.62% to $8.06 New Hope fell 4.9% to $5.81 Yancoal fell 4.62% to $5.87 Coronado Coal fell 4.65% Fortescue Metals added 0.89% to $22.68 BHP added 0.02% to $48.13 Rio Tinto fell 0.4% to $123.65. Technical analysis We view the ASX 200 as being stretched to the upside and overbought after five straight weeks of gains. For the Elliott Wave followers, there is a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low to this week’s 7567.7 high. All of which warn that a pullback is looming. A break of support at 7460/50 (coming from recent lows) would indicate that a medium-term high is in place and that a corrective pullback is underway. We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area. ASX 200 daily chart Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of February 9th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 make fresh push higher Indices have had a mixed week, but are once again attempting to make upward progress. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023 FTSE 100 moves above 7900 again The index is making a new attempt to push on above 7900 today, having struggled around this level yesterday. The index clearly has the psychological 8000 level in focus, as it makes a move to build on the bounce from the late January support zone above 7700. So long as it holds above this level the bullish view remains in place, with sellers needing a move below 7700 to suggest a short-term pullback is in play. Source: ProRealTime DAX edges higher After the weakness on Monday and Tuesday the index has pushed back above 15,500. Additional gains continue to target 15,600, and from there the 1 February 2022 high at 15,715 comes into view. The index does remain overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and today’s initial gains have widened the gap. But for the moment this is more of a warning to buyers not to chase this market higher, and at present there is little sign of any serious pullback developing. That would require a move below 15,000 at the least. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 stuck in a narrow range The index has found it impossible to establish a clear direction this week, but overall the buyers still seem to have the upper hand. The consolidation for the week so far means that we await a move above 4200 to establish a fresh bullish thrust in price terms, potentially opening the way to the August highs above 4300. Meanwhile, a reversal below 4100 would provide the bears with some hope of a short-term pullback, though as long as the price holds above the 200-day SMA the outlook will continue to lean broadly bullish. Source: ProRealTime
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