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Trading Ranges for 09-04-2021 Plus a new tool ANYONE can use.


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Good morning. 

     Here we are again. Friday, a day where bears have been taken out to the back of the barn and shot. As I have been saying, I am still quite bullish on the world economy. Things are moving along nicely on the vaccine front, Stims have been passed, Biden wants infrastructure and most importantly, we are coming up against some of the best comps in the history of economic data series since the 20s. A time will come when the tide will change and when that happens, my portfolio will look a lot different but for now the wind is behind us so we remain bullish. Looking at my Volatility signal on the VIX and VXN plus a lot of things I own and these indices are coming up against the top of their respective trading ranges we may see a pull back so I will be reticent about buying up here. I put a note out this morning in the education section below 👇  It covers stripping away sources of unnecessary noise such as news headlines, talking points and my fav  #WUFLU conspiracy theories ( which may or may not be true)  and admonishes readers to focus to the most important drivers of markets which is data. There is also a spreadsheet tool at the end to help track the data sources so check it out.

Trading ranges for the day

SPY (Bullish) 395.465 - 413.78  prev. close: 408.52
QQQ (Bullish) 318.763 - 341.741  prev. close: 335.08
IWM (Neutral) 205.285 - 229.55  prev. close: 222.56
XLK (Bullish) 133.228 - 143.284  prev. close: 140.42
XLF (Bullish) 33.422 - 35.652  prev. close: 34.85
XLE (Bullish) 45.836 - 50.891  prev. close: 48.51
XLU (Bullish) 64.101 - 66.085  prev. close: 64.89
XLI (Bullish) 96.19 - 102.12  prev. close: 99.54
XLC (Bullish) 72.709 - 78.371  prev. close: 76.94
XLP (Bullish) 67.841 - 70.93  prev. close: 69.04
XLB (Bullish) 76.666 - 82.11  prev. close: 79.36
XLY (Bullish) 166.26 - 177.304  prev. close: 174.32
XLV (Neutral) 115.184 - 119.193  prev. close: 116.67
XLRE (Bullish) 39.315 - 41.256  prev. close: 40.28
XRT (Bullish) 83.032 - 94.208  prev. close: 90.79
GLD (Bearish) 157.821 - 166.687  prev. close: 164.51
SLV (Bearish) 21.905 - 24.079  prev. close: 23.62
USO (Bullish) 37.221 - 42.845  prev. close: 40.82
BNO (Bullish) 14.475 - 16.823  prev. close: 15.97
TLT (Bearish) 135.223 - 141.142  prev. close: 138.01
UUP (Neutral) 24.733 - 25.206  prev. close: 24.79
VIX (Bearish) 15.269 - 19.372  prev. close: 16.95
BTCUSD (Bullish) 55762 - 63788  prev. close: 5857

 

Good Luck out there

CA

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      10/06/21 11:53

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    • You need to get hung up on them, because they happen - I know for a fact that during 2007-09 bear market you could have traded long and made money, because I did it, but the easiest route was shorting and down Get a chart WEEKLY of any forex market or commodity - go back as far as poss and notice the big turns/swings - much more volatile than the SP500 - there's a reason for that  I always say anyone who's making a packet from trading or Investing on SP500 etc go have a crack at the forex or commodity markets - the stock markets natural direction is UPWARDS - especially buy and holders, fund managers would get ripped apart on the forex + comm markets OK - Its totally Impossible to know EXACTLY what the SP500 is going to do on a daily/weekly basis, but it WAS possible to know that a) 2007-09 was going to be a bear market before 2007 even arrived and b) that the market would stop around the level it did.  But this is ultra advanced and very few people are bothered about it I've written a thread on Time Cycles on here - it covers what the SP500 is doing in terms of TIME - if you understand it and think about it, it will put you ahead of 99.99999% of traders out there, because these really big corrections and crashes do not happen out of the blue - they are predictable and forecastable with high reliability years in advance  Look at the chart below - think about what I'm saying: In 1909 WD Gann said that markets always seek their gravity centre, the half way point - that's the 50% level to you and I Traders go on about fib levels - the 50% level is clearly much more important a level  What if you KNEW 1974, 2003 and 2009 should be low points? What an opportunity both long and short! This is why I researched and spent hundreds of hours on Time and Time Cycles for - I missed 2000-2009 because I didn't know what I know now, but I know when the next ones are and I have no plans of missing them These are key once in a lifetime turn points that don't happen often So what I'm trying to point out is that on the stock market the big plunges like 07-09 aren't the norm, but they do happen with very regular intervals, that will catch a lot of people out during certain cycles that the market moves through. with regards to identifying bear markets - yes using a MA to say price below this level is bearish, but it's already bearish as it approaches the level if using price formations such as lower lows etc You don't need to know what I've discovered about time to be able to trade successfully - I was just intrigued if it was possible to be able to time the really big turns etc as I'd prefer to to know if it was    
    • These are relatively rare events but I do find myself getting hung up on them. 
    • If we take the 2008 decline on the US500, I've attached a daily chart of this. You'd be better off shorting but of course you don't know that it's going to be an ongoing decline and the risk potentially is that you switch to a short preference and then the market does revert back to an upward trend. The market stayed below the 100 day MA for an extended time so maybe that's an indication of which way to trade but I know it's not always reliable. Probably also helps if you use a trailing stop at least to minimise damage.
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