DX 1Q 2017

[Caseynotes]

Big 4 hour reversal bar (12pm - 4pm) may be only temp as the move was very sudden and caused by a French election news flash.

EURUSD pushed up to 10550 which is now acting as resistance.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Trump to address Congress Tue 28th Feb and expected to give greater detail to tax cuts and infrastructure spending plans could lead to big market moves either way, disappointment or enthusiasm.  

 

DXY fall caught by the 100 ema and prior value area, currently rejecting 10100, may continue down to retest 10040 prior low.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Trump budget speech to congress tonight 2am. Some hints out already, it has been reported tax cut plans cannot be finalised until health policy is decided (dismantling Obamacare) and that 52 billion extra planned for military will be off set by savings elsewhere, not increased borrowing. 

Not sounding like the stimulus package expected, may squeeze the 'Trump Rally'. 

 

[Caseynotes]

Good article from Money Week on Trump's budget speech tonight.

 

http://moneyweek.com/donald-trump-extremely-crafty-or-just-plain-thick/

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY looking at 10170 again which has been a consistent barrier to the upside since mid January.

GBPUSD testing 13250.

EURUSD trying for 10500.

GB Manu PMI data 9:30.

Reversal or breakout? Not much US data this week. Fed speakers on Friday.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Directional bias for the USD is still bullish, my current favoured chart to see that expressed is USDJPY.

Yellen speaks on economic outlook today at 6pm.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY testing yesterday's high while EURUSD tests yesterday's low.

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY (daily chart) pushing on to next resistance level 10220.

GBPUSD (4 hour chart) breaks down below support on the weekly chart at 12170.

Commentators not expecting major upheaval in today's budget.

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY pausing at 10220.

USDJPY still in touch with the Friday high 11475.

ECB rate decision 12:45, more important presser at 13:30.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY fluctuated on Draghi's comments yesterday, still capped by 10220. NFP today 13:30.

EURUSD still ranging since late Feb. (4 hr chart).

USDJPY continues big move up, now looking to test 11600.

GBPUSD attempted a breakdown that failed. GB manu and indy production data 09:30 and GDP estimate at 15:00.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY falls, 5 reasons.

 

https://www.forexcrunch.com/dollar-fell-rate-hike-5-reasons/

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY trying to pick it's self up off 10000 as eurodollar gets jitters over French election polls. Euro fell as Le Pen increases lead in primary election poll and tightenes gap in secondary. First round still just over a month away but as with Brexit and GBP, polls data could cause increasingly erratic moves for eurodollar.

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY lifting to retake 10000. 10y T- Note falling back from 12400. USDJPY bouncing off 11250.

1 hour charts.

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY breaking down past yesterdays low heading for major support zone. EURUSD closing in on major resistance.

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY reaches major support as EURUSD looks at major resistance.

 

[Caseynotes]

All eyes seem to be on the congress vote tonight around 10 pm London time. USDJPY jumping about on rumour and speculation. Also, there may be a press conf about 7 pm and don't forget the possibility of an impromptu Trump tweet. 

 

[Caseynotes]

Congressional vote postponed last night, maybe this evening or probably lost. Short blog piece here discussing the Health Care Bill vote and why it is affecting the USD.

 

http://blog.fxpro.co.uk/daily-forex-outlook/24032017-healthcare-vote-postponed-due-to-republican-disagreement/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=FxPro_SMM

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY continuation to the upside after big bounce off weekly trend line. Helped along by very good US consumer sentiment data yesterday afternoon.

 

[Caseynotes]

Week, month and quarter end flows today, could get bumpy.

DXY retakes 10000.

Eurodollar searching for support, trying to retake 10700.

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY up move stuck between 10020 and 10060. Eurodollar continues sideways. Push up by USDJPY on ADP US jobs data reverses on poor US PMI. Big US jobs data overshoot could be significant for NFP Friday.

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

USDJPY setting up and waiting for NFP on 15 minute chart. Could break either way depending on NFP and average hour earnings figures but clear levels both directions.

 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting day ahead for DXY after gaining support off long term zone while EURUSD 1 hour pulls back towards the 20 ema after a strong bull day yesterday.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

DXY continuing push up after Friday afternoon failed breakout to the down side. EURUSD breaks yesterday's low.

EURUSD 1 hour.

DXY 4 hour.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Weekly chart shows the low volume trendline break now being retested from the under side.

EURUSD weekly bearish engulfing candle testing 10850 support.

 

[Caseynotes]

EURUSD running into strong resistance at 11140 as DXY drops into open space, just waiting for Trump to start tweeting.

4 hr charts.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Strong opening bull bar EURUSD trying to secure 11250 for another leg up.

DXY in open space, no support till 9605.