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DX 1Q 2017


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Trump to address Congress Tue 28th Feb and expected to give greater detail to tax cuts and infrastructure spending plans could lead to big market moves either way, disappointment or enthusiasm.  

 

DXY fall caught by the 100 ema and prior value area, currently rejecting 10100, may continue down to retest 10040 prior low.

 

240217US Dollar Basket (DFB).png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Trump budget speech to congress tonight 2am. Some hints out already, it has been reported tax cut plans cannot be finalised until health policy is decided (dismantling Obamacare) and that 52 billion extra planned for military will be off set by savings elsewhere, not increased borrowing. 

Not sounding like the stimulus package expected, may squeeze the 'Trump Rally'. 

 

info tr.PNG

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DXY looking at 10170 again which has been a consistent barrier to the upside since mid January.

GBPUSD testing 13250.

EURUSD trying for 10500.

GB Manu PMI data 9:30.

Reversal or breakout? Not much US data this week. Fed speakers on Friday.

 

 

010317US Dollar Basket (DFB).png010317USD (DFB).png010317USD (DFB).png 

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DXY (daily chart) pushing on to next resistance level 10220.

GBPUSD (4 hour chart) breaks down below support on the weekly chart at 12170.

Commentators not expecting major upheaval in today's budget.

 

080317US Dollar Basket (DFB).png080317USD (DFB).png

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DXY fluctuated on Draghi's comments yesterday, still capped by 10220. NFP today 13:30.

EURUSD still ranging since late Feb. (4 hr chart).

USDJPY continues big move up, now looking to test 11600.

GBPUSD attempted a breakdown that failed. GB manu and indy production data 09:30 and GDP estimate at 15:00.

 

100317USD (DFB).png100317JPY (DFB).png100317USD (DFB).png

 

 

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DXY trying to pick it's self up off 10000 as eurodollar gets jitters over French election polls. Euro fell as Le Pen increases lead in primary election poll and tightenes gap in secondary. First round still just over a month away but as with Brexit and GBP, polls data could cause increasingly erratic moves for eurodollar.

 

fpoll.PNG170317US Dollar Basket (DFB).png

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All eyes seem to be on the congress vote tonight around 10 pm London time. USDJPY jumping about on rumour and speculation. Also, there may be a press conf about 7 pm and don't forget the possibility of an impromptu Trump tweet. 

 

tx1.PNGtx3.PNGtx2.PNG

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Congressional vote postponed last night, maybe this evening or probably lost. Short blog piece here discussing the Health Care Bill vote and why it is affecting the USD.

 

http://blog.fxpro.co.uk/daily-forex-outlook/24032017-healthcare-vote-postponed-due-to-republican-disagreement/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=FxPro_SMM

 

 

 

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DXY up move stuck between 10020 and 10060. Eurodollar continues sideways. Push up by USDJPY on ADP US jobs data reverses on poor US PMI. Big US jobs data overshoot could be significant for NFP Friday.

 

050417US Dollar Basket (DFB).png050417JPY (DFB).png 

 

 

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