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      10/06/21 10:53

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    • FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 begin Monday on a weaker footing Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of plethora of central bank meetings by the likes of the Fed, ECB and BoE. Source: Bloomberg  Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 January 2023  FTSE 100 sells off ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate meeting The FTSE 100 continues to slide ahead of this week’s Bank of England (BoE) committee meeting where a 50-basis point rate hike is expected to be announced. Nonetheless the index is to end the month of January in positive territory. A fall through last week’s low at 7,711 would push the 10 January low at 7,668 to the fore. As long as this level holds, together with the October-to-January uptrend line at 7,644, the FTSE 100 remains in a medium-term uptrend with the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 and the psychological 8,000 mark still representing possible upside targets. Immediate resistance can be spotted at Thursday’s 7,786 high. While remaining below it, immediate downside pressure should be maintained. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 gives back recent gains ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting The DAX 40 is seen giving back some of last week’s gains as investors are refocusing their attention on monetary policy with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) expected to hike its rates by 25-basis points on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) by 50-basis points on Thursday. Good support seen between the recent January lows at 14,964 to 14,904 are thus back in the frame but may once more offer support this week. As long as the latter level underpins, a neutral to bullish bias remains intact. If the 14,904 low were to be slipped through, however, the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814 could be eyed instead. A rise above Thursday’s 15,221 high is needed to put the current January high at 15,272 back on the map. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 expected to open lower The S&P 500 is expected to begin this week on a weaker footing, having last week jumped by close to 2.5% amid slowing inflation, weakening economic data and mixed corporate earnings in the US which point towards a slower pace of central bank policy tightening with the Fed expected to raise rates by 25-basis points on Wednesday. The minor psychological 4,000 mark is thus back in play, below which the January support line can be found at 3,955 as well as the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 3,946 to 3,941. Resistance is seen at last week’s high at 4,062, a rise above which would push the early January high at 4,101 and the December peak at 4,139 back to the fore. Source: ProRealTime
    • Amazon’s share price has gained close to 25% since the start of the year. Can its upcoming Q4 earnings support further recovery for its share price? Source: Bloomberg   Shares Amazon Web Services Retail Amazon Revenue Price  Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 30 January 2023  When does Amazon Inc report earnings? Amazon Inc is set to release its quarter four (Q4) financial results on 2 February 2023, after market closes. Amazon’s earnings – what to expect Current market expectations are for Amazon’s upcoming Q4 revenue to come in at $145.4 billion, up 5.8% year-on-year (YoY). This comes after Amazon downgraded its fourth-quarter revenue back in October last year to be between $140 billion and $148 billion. Previous miss in revenue guidance led Amazon’s share price to plunge 13% in a single day, leaving upcoming guidance as one of the crucial factors to watch. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is expected to come in at $18.2 billion, up 7.4% from a year ago. Amazon Web Services (AWS) on watch as Amazon’s growth catalyst Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains a key engine for the company’s growth, considering that it is Amazon’s highest-growth segment (27.5% year-on-year growth in quarter three) and has been taking up an increasing share of its revenue over the years. While there are some earlier hopes that cloud spending could still hold up as companies prioritise digital transformation, recent guidance from Microsoft has put AWS in a tough spot. At its latest earnings release, Microsoft has guided that Azure cloud-computing sales in the current period will slow by four or five points — down from the mid-30s percentage-wise at the end of the fiscal second quarter. This seemingly coincides with the series of tech layoffs announced over the past few months. Refinitiv estimates suggest that moderating growth in AWS may continue through the first half of 2023, which could leave room for disappointment in that the worst has not been seen. While Amazon’s share price has managed to pare initial losses due to the improved risk environment, the upcoming results could deliver another reckoning, if Amazon downgraded its cloud revenue forecast as well in the likes of Microsoft. Aftermath of cost-cutting measures on close watch in earnings call Earlier this month, Amazon has announced that it will be cutting 18,000 employees as it turns to cost-cutting measures to cope with the ‘uncertain economic conditions’. This is the largest layoff in the company’s history. Amazon’s operating margin has been on a declining trend since 2021, coming in at just 2% as of quarter three (Q3) 2022, down from 4.4% in Q3 2021. Higher costs remain a challenge that Amazon must deal with, as total operating expenses as of Q3 2022 continue to rise 17.6% from a year ago. Much will depend on how the management is able to convince market participants that recent cost-cutting measures will provide a turnaround for margins, but some challenges lie ahead with oil prices gaining some upside to kick off 2023 while wage pressures remain. Retail spending still a mixed bag, outlook will be key Amazon’s core retail business is heavily dependent on US consumers’ spending, and upcoming expectations suggest that it could still be a mixed bag. Based on its geographical breakdown, its ‘North America’ segment is expected to grow 8.9% from a year ago, but its ‘International’ business is expected to contract by 6.5%. Online store sales (giant bulk of its retail business) is projected to come in flat, with a slight contraction of 1% from the previous year. Any guidance on the consumer spending outlook could hold greater weight in driving market sentiments. While the January reading for the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index has shown a recovery to its 8-month high (64.9), the improving spending outlook was not echoed by the world's two largest payment card network processors, MasterCard and Visa. From their latest result release, both companies saw purchase volumes on their cards climb less than expected and expect card spending to slow as inflation persists. The weakening trend for consumer spending was also presented with retail sales down 1.1% in December, the biggest drop since December 2021. Much will depend on how Amazon addresses this risk to its core business at its upcoming earnings call. Amazon’s shares – technical analysis There have been some bullish moves in Amazon’s share price lately, having lifted off the lower trendline of a falling wedge pattern. From its weekly chart, a bullish divergence was presented on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), along with a bullish crossover indicating upward momentum. However, a key resistance at the $102.00 level may have to be overcome, where a previous support-turned-resistance coincides with its 100-day moving average (MA). Overcoming this level may pave the way towards the $120.00 level next. A greater test of resistance may stand at a key longer-term downward trendline, which has held prices down on two occasions since 2021.   Source: IG charts
    • Texas Instruments Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Texas Instruments Inc.,(TXN:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 30 January 23, TXNStock Market Analysis:Looking for completion of wave 2 after a potential five wave sequence in wave 1 of (3). TXNElliott WaveCount:Wave{b} of2. TXNTechnical Indicators:20EMA assupport. TXNTrading Strategy:Looking for downside in wave {c} to then start looking for longs. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta     Texas Instruments Inc., TXN:4-hour Chart, 30 January 23, Texas Instruments Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisTXNStock Market Analysis:The move up in wave 1 can also be counted as a three wave move which makes me doubt thecount as a whole.However the potential triangleseems clear for now. TXNElliott Wave count:Wave(e) of{b}. TXNTechnical Indicators:20EMA as resistance. TXNTrading Strategy:You could place shorts on the triangle looking to trade wave {c}.
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