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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected up after a strong start to Q4 globally. AXS200 up strongly after RBA raised rates only 25bps. Brazil Bovespa up 6% on close election 1st round  

FX: AUD on the way down after RBAs decision. USD steepest 4 day loss since July 2020

Equities: Earnings – GRG Q3

Commods: Oil up again head of OPEC+ mtg Wednesday with a possible 1mln boepd cut. Gold holding recent gains silver up 16% in a week

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: end of oversized interest rate hikes in sight?

Europe expected up after a strong start to Q4 globally. ASX 200 up strongly after RBA raised rates only 25bps. AUD meanwhile on the way down after RBA's decision while USD sees steepest 4-day loss since July 2020.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 October 2022 

Macro overview

It was a positive start of the month for US indices. The Dow Jones closed yesterday’s session up 2.66%, the S&P 500 rose 2.59%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 2.27%.

The Asia-Pacific region followed suit, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 outperforming the region as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by 25-basis points (bps) to 2.6%. If this makes it the highest level in more than nine years, the market was expecting a 50 basis-point hike.

The move benefited the equity market but affected the Australian dollar. AUD/USD fell as much as 1% at the announcement before paring some losses.

Rates are expected to increase further. The RBA repeated its commitment to bring inflation down to target levels. Inflation is still too high and should remain so for months to come. The bank expects consumer inflation to rise about 7.75% in 2022, above 4% in 2023, and around 3% in 2024.

Elsewhere, several Fed presidents and board members' speeches are expected today, among them Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, and New York Fed chief executive John Williams. Yesterday, Williams already said that while they can see growing signs of cooling inflation, underlying price pressures remain too high: "Clearly, inflation is far too high, and persistently high inflation undermines the ability of our economy to perform at its full potential. Tighter monetary policy has begun to cool demand and reduce inflationary pressures, but our job is not yet done."

Williams did not share his views on what the next Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike should be. Many are speculating that the Fed will again hike by 0.75 percentage points.

The US dollar remains on the back foot this morning. The US Dollar Basket retreated yesterday for a fifth consecutive day. This benefited commodities, and especially precious metals: gold now trades just below $1,700, platinum gained $60 in yesterday's session, and silver hit a three-month high.

At 10am producer price index in the Eurozone is expected to accelerate in August. Economists see a month-on-month (MoM) increase of 4.9%, after 4% in July. The year-on-year (YoY) rise is forecast to reach 43.1%.

In the US, factory orders are expected to rise by 0.3% in August on a month-on-month basis.

Equities overview

Elsewhere on the equity market, Greggs PLC said in a trading statement its sales rose 14.6% in the third quarter (Q3), adding its full-year (FY) outcome will be in line with expectations.

Investors will remain attentive to Credit Suisse Group AG (CH). Shares of the Swiss bank recovered their losses and ended yesterday’s session down around 1% after a big market rally. The stock had dropped as much as 10% at the start of trading after the Financial Times reported the Swiss bank's executives are in talks with its major investors to reassure them amid rising concerns over the lender's financial health.

Commodities

Oil prices are on the rise this morning, and the market is waiting for tomorrow's OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, where members will be discussing output cuts that could go above one million barrels per day (bpd).

Last month the organisation cut production by 100,000 bpd, signalling it would do what it takes to maintain oil price stability. In September, oil prices retreated for a fourth straight month.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 4 October

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq breaking higher as bulls return to the fold. EUR/USD and GBP/USD edge up while USD/JPY falters at Y145 again. And Brent crude oil and gold rally on falling US dollar and US natural gas prices.

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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Market data to trade on Wednesday: NZD rates; TSCO earnings; OPEC+

After the downside surprise from the Australian central bank, could the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also go for a smaller rise in rates? If so, this may push the AUD/NZD up to key resistance levels.

Also, an OPEC+ meeting could support oil if it delivers a 1-million barrel cut in production.

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor also looks at Tesco (TSCO) earnings.

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: After the biggest 2 day climb since the early days of Covid, Europe expected to open mixed

Equities: Musk confirms TWTR purchase for $44bln (subject to debt financing). Earnings – TSCO TPT

FX: USD holds recent losses. EURUSD climbed back to within 2 ticks of parity. NZD up after RBNZ raised rates by 50bps as expected, considered 75bps

Commods: Brent holds $90 ahead of OPEC+ mtg where mkts expecting 1mln boepd cut. Gold holding recent gains

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: US dollar settles as RBNZ sends hawkish message

USD holds recent losses while NZD is up after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised rates by 50bps as expected.

 

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 October 2022 

Equity markets overview

US equity markets accelerated their rebound yesterday.

The S&P 500 rose by 3.06% and posted its biggest two-day rise since April 2020. The Nasdaq ended the session 3.36% higher.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng trades close to 6% higher after returning from a holiday.

RBNZ raises rates as expected

As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted its official cash rate by 50-basis points (bps) to 3.5%, an eighth increase in 12 months that took the bank's rate to a seven-year high. "The Committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue to tighten monetary conditions at pace to maintain price stability and contribute to maximum sustainable employment".

RBNZ minutes showed there were talks around a 75 basis-point increase, but policymakers decided against this as rate hikes are slow to pass through to retail interest rates.

Macro overview

In Europe equity markets opened lower this morning after recording a strong session yesterday.

France’s CAC40 outperformed the region, ending the session up 4.24%. In Germany, seasonally adjusted trade surplus narrowed to €1.2 billion, and imports increased more than expected by 3.4%. Exports also rose at a softer rate of 1.6%. i

In the US, economists expect the ADP survey to announce 200,000 job creations in the private sector for the month of September. As for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), 250,000 job creations are expected. Unemployment rate should remain at 3.7%, and average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) and 5.1% year-on-year (YoY).

The market also awaits the latest US trade balance data for the month of August. Economists expect the US deficit to shrink to $67.7bn in August.

At 3pm, ISM non-manufacturing PMI is forecast to fall to 56 in September from 56.9 the previous month.

Tesco, Twitter

Elsewhere on the equity market, Tesco PLC reported a 10% fall in adjusted operating profit, and maintained is profit guidance within the previously announced range, “albeit towards the lower end”.

Billionaire Elon Musk has undertaken what appears to be a complete about turn and has now agreed to buy Twitter for the agreed $44bn. Twitter shares jumped 22% when investors learned Musk agreed to pay $54.20 per share. The surprise reversal comes just weeks before the two sides were due in court.

Commodities

Oil prices are little changed this morning after a second day of strong gains.

WTI and Brent have been rallying as oil traders gear up for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Oil ministers of the organisation meet today in Vienna, where they'll be discussing the size of production cut.

Last month the organisation cut production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), signalling it would do what it takes to maintain oil price stability. In September, oil prices retreated for a fourth straight month.

Reuters sources say the market could expect production cuts in excess of one million barrels per day. And one OPEC source said yesterday the cut could amount to up to two million barrels per day. As a reference, world daily crude consumption is around 100 million barrels.

Yesterday evening, the latest API data showed a fall in crude oil stocks of 1.77 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by nearly 3.5 million barrels and distillates by four million barrels.

Gold now trades at a three-week high as the dollar continued to weaken yesterday.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 5 October

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 on track for further gains. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD rebound likely to prove shortlived. And gold, oil and silver looking to build on gains.

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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Market data to trade on Thursday: Aussie Trade; Levi earnings

With the upside risk for forecasts for the Australian trade data, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the long trade on the Aussie benchmark, the S&P ASX 200. Earnings out on Thursday include Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss.

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

 

UK outlook revised to negative by Fitch

Indices: European stocks to open up after small drop yesterday. Recession fears still haunt mkts after eurozone PMI data yesterday. APAC mostly up  

FX: USD holds recent gains. EURUSD pulls down from parity. Rtrs poll says GBPUSD will climb next year BUT could challenge parity later this year.

Equities: Earnings – LEVI STZ. CSGN still under pressure as CDS climb again

Commods:  Oil up after OPEC+ delivered 2mln barrel cut. Gold bumping up against 50 day sma

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: Shell warns on earnings as refining margins drop

The oil price is up after OPEC+ delivered a 2-million barrel per day cut, while Shell warns on earnings as it sees a drop in refining margins.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 06 October 2022 

Macro overview

US equity markets consolidated yesterday after two days of strong gains. The Dow Jones fell by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq ended the session 0.25% lower.

Overnight the session was mixed in the APAC region. In Australia, trade surplus narrowed to a six-month low - A$8.32 billion - in August, below market forecasts of a A$10.1 billion surplus. Exports grew by 3%, while imports increased 4% compared to last month.

For San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, the path has been very clear: "we are going to raise the rate until we get into restrictive territory, and then we are going to hold it there" until inflation comes down closer to 2%. In an Interview with Bloomberg yesterday Daly reiterated the Fed's commitment to restore price stability, and it particularly waiting for two important sets of data. She hopes tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) will confirm the start of a hiring slowdown.

Earlier this week, JOLTs openings fell to their lowest level since June 2021. Current expectations for non-farm payrolls are 250,000 job creations in September. If actual figures were to match that forecast, it should be the lowest number of job creations since December 2020.

The San Francisco Fed president would also like to see next week's CPI showing underlying price pressures either stabilising or falling. She could be disappointed there. If the headline figure is expected to fall to 8.1%, economists see core CPI rise accelerating to 6.5%.

The Fed is expected to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike when it meets early next month.

Equity overview

Elsewhere on the equity market, Shell warns this morning that its third quarter (Q3) profits will be weakened by a sharp drop in refining margins and expects "significantly" weaker earnings from natural gas trading.

N Brown posted an 82.4% drop in adjusted profit before tax and revised its profit guidance down.

Imperial Brands announced £1 billion share buyback programme, and says that total capital returns in full-year 23 (FY23), including ordinary dividends and share buybacks, are expected to exceed £2bn.

Levi Strauss & Company is set to post its third quarter earnings after market close tonight. Analysts anticipate earnings of 37 cents per share, gathering pace after the 29 cents reported three months ago, but some 23% lower than the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is forecast to increase by 6.7% to $1.6bn.

Levi Strauss can count on the strength of its brand, but like many other retailers, it has to face supply chain issues, in an adverse economic environment. Investors will be particularly attentive to the group guidance, which at the moment stands at $1.50-$1.56 for the full year.

Constellation Brands Inc is poised to release its second quarter (Q2) earnings before the US opening bell. The maker of Corona beer is expected to report an 18% increase in earnings per share to $2.78. Revenue should reach $2.50bn.

Commodities

Oil prices are holding at the new three-week high set yesterday. OPEC+ agreed on a two million barrels per day (bpd) cut yesterday, saying it was an adequate response in a context of rising interest rates and weakening global economy.

US president Joe Biden called the decision "short-sighted" and said he would continue to assess whether to release further strategic oil stocks to lower prices. The next OPEC+ meeting will take place on 4 December.

OPEC+ will move to meet every six months instead of monthly meetings. The EIA confirmed the decline across the board announced by the API on Tuesday.

Crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels last week. U.S. gasoline stocks shrank by 4.7mn barrels, and distillate stockpiles fell by 3.4Mln barrels has context menu

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 6 October

GBP/USD and EUR/USD come off their recent highs while EUR/GBP consolidates. We also look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX and FTSE. On the commodities front we look at Brent, gold and copper.

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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Market data to trade on Friday: US jobs; UK house prices

The focus of the day will be the US non-farm payrolls which may see the USD rally again. Meanwhile, UK house prices may affect the FTSE 350 Household Goods sector and we’re also watching the DAX around German factory prices.

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe to open mixed. Despite yesterday’s losses mkts on for their 1st weekly gain in 4. Trading likely to be thin ahead of NFP data   

FX: USD holding recent gains ahead of those jobs numbers at 1:30pmUK. USDJPY near new 24yr high

Equities: Earnings - JDS SDRY. LEVI last night down 5% in extended trade after earnings a 4% drop in cash session. TWTR/Musk deal held up over debt talks?  

Commods: Gold down for 3rd day. Cotton breaks below long term support again. Oil down but on one of the best weeks since June 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD holding recent gains ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

USD holding recent gains ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls data at 1:30pm UK.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 07 October 2022 

Market overview

Thanks to a strong start to the week, equity markets are on track to post their first weekly gains in four weeks. Yet, APAC equity markets have been consolidating overnight, following a negative US session yesterday.

In Europe, indices began today’s session lower. UK Halifax house price index fell by 0.1% in September, after a 0.4% rise in August. On a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the index increased by 9.9%, down from a rise of 11.4% the previous month.

In Germany, industrial production and retail sales came short of economists’ expectations in August.

Forex

The currency market remains subdued as traders await latest US job data. Economists expect 250,000 job creations in September. The unemployment rate should remain at 3.7% and average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) and 5.1% YoY.

Fed policy makers will be particularly attentive to the non-farm payrolls (NFP) release, but it is very unlikely it will shift their mind when it comes to the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on rates. The Fed is widely expected to hike by 75-basis points for a fourth time in a row at their next meeting.

Newly appointed Fed board member, Lisa Cook is the latest to support the bank's broad consensus for continued interest rate hikes. In her first public comments on monetary policy, Cook said that US inflation "remains stubbornly and unacceptably high, and data over the past few months show that inflationary pressures remain broad-based.... [Inflation] must come down, and we will keep at it until the job is done."

Cook is the latest to relay the Fed's willingness to raise its target policy rate to a restrictive level, even at the risk of less economic growth and more unemployment. To quote just a few, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday: "I anticipate additional rate hikes into early next year". For Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, "Inflation is high right now and we need a more restrictive setting of monetary policy. " Neel Kashkari sees at this point "almost no evidence" that inflation has even peaked. Fed governors John Williams, Loretta Mester and Mary Daly also expressed their willingness to get rates into restrictive territory.

Earnings update

Elsewhere on the equity market, JD WetherspoonJD Wetherspoon posted a pre-tax loss before exceptional items of £30.4 million for the full year, while Superdry returns to profit after recording at statutory pre-tax profit of £17.9m.

Yesterday evening, Levi Strauss shares fell in extended trading after the group cut its full-year profit forecast. Levi Strauss posted earnings of 40 cents per share for the third quarter, three cents higher than consensus. Revenue missed expectations, as the denim maker had to deal with softening demand, a strengthening dollar, and persisting supply chain issues.

With inflation at decades high levels across the globe and a looming recession, consumers are moving away from higher-priced products and clothes to essentials such as food and energy. The strengthening also affected Levi Strauss margins, down 60 basis points compared to a year earlier at 56.9%. The company now expects full-year 2022 adjusted profit between $1.44 and $1.49 per share, compared to prior forecast of $1.50 to $1.56.

Commodities

Oil prices are showing small losses this morning. Yet, after this week's OPEC+ decision to cut output by two million barrels per day, WTI and Brent are set to clinch their first weekly gains in six weeks.

Oil traders await the Baker Hughes weekly data. Last Friday, total rig count rose by one to 765. The number of oil rigs in operation increased by two to 604, while the operational gas rig fell by one to 161.

 

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Charting the Markets: 7 October

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 stall ahead of US jobs data. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD reverse lower after recent rebound. And gold and wheat fall back as oil continues on an upward course.

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

 

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Today’s coverage:

VIX rises, looks set to rise above falling resistance

Indices: Expected to start the day in Europe down after Friday’s slump on the US jobs report

FX: USD holds last week’s gains as US data this week expected to show US inflation remains red hot and the FOMC will still go 75pbs a next mtg

Equities: US earnings start this week with the big banks JPM WFC C BAC MS

Commods: Oil down after strongest week since February. Gold down for a 4th day. Base metals holding up, iron ore up 3.5% at resistance

 

 

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Early Morning Call: global equity markets, including S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fall after NFPs

VIX rises, looking set to move above falling resistance. Global equity markets are down after Friday’s slump on the US jobs report.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 10 October 2022 

Equity markets fall after NFPs

Global equity markets fell after the publication of US jobs data for September.

On Friday the S&P 500 dropped 2.8%, while the Nasdaq shed 3.8%. US stock and bond markets will remain closed today for Colombus Day.

Overnight the APAC region followed suit, and European equity markets opene lower this morning.

Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFPs) showed the creation of 263,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, from 3.7% in August, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on last month, and 5% on September 2021.

The number of people employed in the US is now higher than it was before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. And according to the latest report of the bureau of statistics, job openings fell to 10.1 million, their lowest level since May 2021, while only six million people are looking for a job.

Interest rates

All this reflects a tight market that gives enough room to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue to raise interest rates to bring inflation down.

This Thursday, consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by 8.1% in September year-on-year (YoY), after 8.3% in August. Core CPI increase is expected to accelerate to 6.5%, after 6.3% in August, matching the peak recorded in March 2022, a then 40-year high.

Should inflation data rise more than expected, like it did last month, it could give the dollar a leg up and send equity markets lower.

Earnings overview

This coming Friday, four of the US largest banks, JPMorgan , Citigroup , Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley will report their quarterly earnings.

While banks may have been able to charge more for customers to borrow because of interest rates hikes, demand for loans, such as mortgages, has dropped due to the jump of the same borrowing costs, in a context of growing risks of an economic downturn triggered by high inflation, the war in Ukraine, and other supply chain issues.

As a result analyst expect banks to post lower earnings, and an increase in money set aside to cover bad loans.

JP Morgan Chase revenues are expected to increase by 5.4% YoY to just over $32 billion, but analysts see a 22% drop in earnings to $2.91 per share. Three weeks ago, JPMorgan's CFO warned the markets that investment banking revenue would be down by 45 to 50% in the third quarter (Q3).

Last year, strong demand for IPOs and other deals pushed investment banking revenue up to $3.3bn.

As for the other three, the biggest US mortgage lender Wells Fargo is expected to post earnings of $1.10 per share, that's a 17% decline according to Refinitiv. Revenue is expected to fall by about 1% to $18.75bn.

Citigroup is seen posting a 32% decline in earnings, down to $1.49 per share, on revenue of $18.38bn.

And for Morgan Stanley, analysts anticipate earnings of $1.52 per share, and revenue to reach $13.2bn.

Outside the banking sector, earnings reports expected this week include PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines and UnitedHealth.

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices are cooling off after recording their strongest week since February.

Last Friday, Baker Hughes total rig count fell by three to 762. The number of oil rigs in operation decreased by two to 602, while operational gas rigs fell by one to 160.

 

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Charting the Markets: 10 October

Indices weaker following strong US jobs report. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD head lower after recent retracement. And gold, Brent crude and natural gas ease back but questions remain after OPEC action.

 

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Market data to trade on Tuesday: UK retail; Aussie confidence

With the corporate calendar only on from midweek, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at two FX trades that may develop early in the day. These are the short trade for both GBP/USD and AUD/USD around data out overnight.

 

 

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected to open lower as increased war expectations and raised rates hits risk assets. Wall St & APAC all down. HK Tech index record low

FX: DXY breaks 61.8% fib retracement resistance. Overnight UK BRC saw retail sales up, now watching GBP around UK jobs & borrowing costs at 7am – chancellor may now have to RAISE UK taxes to pay for gilt mkt troubles!   

Equities: Earnings - RCH

Commods: Oil down for a 2nd session on recession fears and that stronger USD hitting other commods too including gold down for a 5th day near Fib 61.8% retracement support (see me Trade idea ‘short gold’ yesterday)

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: dollar strengthens on prospects of rate hike, weaker economy

DXY breaks 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance. Europe expected to open lower as increased war expectations and raised rates hits risk assets. Wall St and APAC all down. Hong Kong tech index at record low.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 October 2022 

Equity market overview

Equity markets continued to fall overnight in the APAC region, led by tech stocks.

The Taiwan Stock Exchange dropped more than 4%. Its star stock, TSMC, plunged 8% as investors assessed the impact of new US export rules on the chipmaker.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 posted smaller losses.

Westpac consumer confidence dipped in October to 83.7, from 84.4 the previous month. According to Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans, the outcome would have been worse if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had not chosen to deliver a rate rise of only 25 basis points last week.

NAB business confidence fell by five points to five in September.

In Europe, indices opened in negative territory, extending losses in the previous session.

In the UK, BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor shows that retail sales in the United Kingdom increased by 1.8% on a like-for-like basis in September, hitting a seven-month high due to higher prices. Total retail sales rose by 2.2%. Sales volumes remained low as consumers continued to grapple with the cost-of-living crisis. As consumer confidence declines, people are avoiding large ticket items and are preparing for higher energy costs this winter.

The UK unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in August, from 3.6% in July. Claimant count change rose to 25.500 in September from 6,300 the previous month. According to the Institute for fiscal studies, UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng needs to make £62 billion of spending cuts or tax rises to stop public debt growing ever larger as a share of the economy. Interest rates for new long-term government borrowing rose to a 20-year high last month, after Kwarteng’s mini-budget spooked the markets.

Dollar strength

The dollar has strengthened on aggressive US tightening prospects. After falling to trendline support in the middle of last week, a move that coincided with the RBA decision to hike by only 25 basis points, the dollar index has been rising ever since, boosted first by a plethora of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, and the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

The course of the dollar is unlikely to change until the release of US consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday. Economists expect the headline figure to rise 8.1% in September year-on-year (YoY), down from 8.1% in August, while core CPI is expected to accelerate its pace to 6.5%.

Meanwhile the Japanese yen is nearing intervention level. USD/JPY is a whisker away from the ¥145.89 hit on 22 September.

Commodities

The strength of the dollar is, meanwhile, weighing on the commodity market.

After five straight sessions of gains, Oil - Brent Crude prices dipped 2% yesterday as recession fears and a potential fall in oil demand once again outweighed the supply concerns that followed OPEC+ decision to cut production by two million barrels per day from next month.

Precious metals continue to fall. Gold, silver and platinum trade at a one-week low.

 

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Charting the Markets: 11 October

Dollar strength boosts USD/JPY, while hitting EUR/USD and GBP/USD again. And Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas fall on strong US dollar.

 

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Market data to trade on Wednesday: FOMC minutes; UK GDP

Dollar strength is widely expected to continue, and this move may well be supported by the release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting expected to retain all the recent hawkish rhetoric.

Outside of that watch sterling as it continues to react to the Bank of England’s input and, GDP numbers out early in the day.

 

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe mixed open after heafty declines globally yesterday  

FX: GBP small rise after FT rpts BoE support may now be extended. USD rally takes a breather ahead of FOMC min, but USDJPY hits new 24yr high  and JAP authorities ‘ready to intervene’?

Equities: Earnings - PEP 3Q. UBER & LYFT down heavily after work ruling. INTC cutting ‘thousands’ of jobs. PHIA taking €1.3bln non-cash charge in Q3

Commods: Biden threatens ‘consequences’ after OPEC+ 1mln bpd cut – oil holds 2 days of declines. Gold supported by big Fib retracement levels

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: GBP remains volatile - will BoE extend its bond-buying programme?

Small rise in GBP after reports that BoE support may now be extended. USD rally takes a breather ahead of FOMC minutes, but USD/JPY hits new 24-year high.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 October 2022

Equity markets overview

European equity markets show no real direction this morning, after a negative session yesterday.

In the UK, traders are left in the dark after Bank of England (BoE) governor, Andrew Bailey said yesterday he had no intention to extend the bank's bond purchases beyond 14 October as initially planned.

But the Financial Times reveals this morning that according to three different sources the central bank has told lenders it is prepared to extend its bond-buying programme if needed.

Meanwhile, GDP contracted by 0,3% in August. Economists had expected it to remain flat. The three-month average us down 0.3%, against expectations of -0.2%.

Industrial production surprisingly fell by 5.2% in August year-on-year (YoY). Economist anticipated a rise of 0,.6%.

In the US at 1.30pm, producer price index (PPI) is expected to rise by 0.2% in September month-on-month (MoM), +8.4% YoY.

Forex

The yen continues to weaken. USD/JPY rose overnight to ¥146.35, a level not seen since August 1998 during the Asian financial crisis, and crucially moving above levels that triggered intervention by Japanese authorities last month.

Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki reiterated to the press that there was no change in the country's stance at all and they were ready take necessary steps in the foreign exchange market.

Last month, Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market for the first time in 24 years, selling dollars and buying ¥2.8 trillion to slow the fall of the Japanese currency.

Earnings overview

Elsewhere on the equity market, PageGroup reported a 18.6% increase in quarterly gross profit to £270.5 million, while Barratt Developments, Britain's largest homebuilder, warned this morning of lower private reservations, adding that its annual outlook looks "less certain" as homebuyers face rising mortgage rates in a worsening cost-of-living crisis.

Philips warned this morning that its third quarter (Q3) core profit will fall by about 60% as supply chain problems are expected to continue to hit sales throughout the year. It also announced a non-cash charge on €1.3bn in Q3, linked to the recall of machines used to treat sleep apnoea.

Yesterday after the close of the European market, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA posted better-than-expected sales in the third quarter. They came to €19.8bn, up 19% on a comparable basis from a year earlier, beating analyst expectations of a 13% increase. The French luxury goods giant has seen its sales in Europe, the United States and Japan rising sharply since the start of the year, benefiting from solid demand from local customers and the recovery in international travel.

The strength of the dollar also incited Americans to splash out in Europe, and business improved in China as Covid curbs eased.

Bloomberg News reported yesterday that Credit Suisse Group AG (CH) is under investigation by the US Justice Department, to find out whether the bank continued helping some of its US clients hide assets from authorities, eight years after the Swiss bank paid a $2.6-billion tax evasion settlement. "Credit Suisse does not tolerate tax evasion," the bank told Reuters in a statement yesterday, adding that it was "cooperating extensively with US authorities, including the US Senate and Department of Justice.

Uber Technologies and Lyft shares tumbled yesterday after the US Department of Labor proposed a rule that would make it more difficult for companies to treat workers as independent contractors. If the new proposal were to become rule, workers would be considered as employees, entitled to more benefits and legal protections than contractors. A 45-day public comment period will begin on Thursday, and the final ruling is expected next year.

Bloomberg reported yesterday that Intel is planning thousands of job cuts in the face of a slowdown in the personal computer market. According to people close to the matter, the layoffs will be announced this month. The chipmaker declined to comment on the job cuts.

Intel is set to report its quarterly earnings on October 27. Last July, it cut its annual sales and profit forecasts after missing estimates for second quarter results.

PepsiCo is scheduled to report earnings before market open today. Analysts expect earnings of $1.84 per share on revenue of $20.78bn. Investors want to know how much of an impact the strong dollar has had on the group's sales. Forecasts for the current quarter will also be scrutinised, as it is normally the highest revenue-producing quarter of the year.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Charting the Markets: 12 October

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 try to stabilise ahead of US inflation data. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD expected to bring further downside. And gold, oil and silver edge up after recent losses.

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Market data to trade on Thursday: US CPI; Delta Airlines

US earnings start to kick-in ahead of Friday’s big banks with Delta Airlines, all-sessions on the IG platform. But the big news is expected to be the US inflation numbers at 1:30pm UK, which could steer the next US rate decision.

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected down UKX the worst performer. Losses on Wall St and APAC

FX: Little or no move for USD with no surprises from the FOMC mins. Although USDJPY new 24yr high. US CPI later today. GBP one of the better performers in last 24hrs despite BoE withdrawing support tomorrow

Equities: Earnings – EZJ HAS DAL

Commods: Oil holding 3 days of losses as recession looms & API inventories climbed. Gold little moved. Orange Juice near 6yr hgh after Hurricane Ian

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD/JPY tests 24-year high ahead of US CPI data

Little or no move for USD with no surprises from the FOMC minutes, although USD/JPY at new 24-year high ahead of US CPI data later today.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 October 2022 

Equity market overview

APAC equity markets mostly fell overnight, following US indices, as investors weighed the risks of a global recession.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released last night, from the Fed's September meeting, show that the bank’s officials have been surprised by the pace of inflation and indicated that they expect higher interest rates to remain in place until prices come down. "Participants judged that the Committee needed to move to, and then maintain, a more restrictive policy stance in order to meet the Committee's legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability."

In the discussions, policymakers noted that inflation is especially hurting lower-income Americans.

Equity markets in Europe opened in negative territory this morning, after edging lower yesterday. The FTSE 100 was the worst performer in the region, as the Bank of England (BoE) insisted its emergency bond market support will expire on Friday.

Forex

The currency market is little changed this morning. Traders await 1.30pm UK, when US consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by 8.1% in September year-on-year (YoY) after 8.3% in August. The core CPI increase is expected to accelerate to 6.5%, after 6.3% in August, matching the peak recorded in March 2022, a then 40-year high.

Should inflation data rise more than expected like it did last month, it could give the dollar a leg up, and weigh further on equity markets.

Also at 1.30pm initial jobless claims are expected. Economists anticipate 225,000 new claimants.

The yen, meanwhile, remains near a 24-year high against the dollar. Overnight, Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, said the government will take decisive action in the currency market if speculative moves were seen in the yen.

Earnings

Elsewhere, easyJet published a trading update this morning. It expects EBI to break even in FY2022, and a loss before tax between £170 million and £190m.

In the US, Walgreens Boots Alliance reports its fourth quarter (Q4) earnings before market open. Earnings per share (EPS) should come at 77 cents, and revenue just above $32 billion. Focus will be on next year's profit forecast, and investors await an update on the group's investment in healthcare.

Delta Air Lines is expected to post its highest quarterly profit since the start of the pandemic. Analysts expect earnings of $1.55 per share on revenue of $12.91bn.

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices edged lower yesterday afternoon. API inventories showed a large increase in crude oil stocks of seven million barrels last week, helped by the release of 7.7 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Gasoline stocks rose by two million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels.

NY orange Juice is heading back towards the recently reached six-year high. Florida orange production was already expected to plummet which explains the steady rise since mid-September. And that was before Hurricane Ian. The latest estimates say that production has been hurt further by the hurricane, down to levels not seen since the 1940's. NY orange juice rose by more than 5% yesterday.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Charting the Markets: 13 October

Bearish outlook for FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 remains firmly in place. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY await US CPI data release. And gold and Brent crude turn lower as orange juice turns upwards once again.

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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