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[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 30 November

FTSE 100 and CAC 40 remain bid while DAX 40 lags. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD turn upward after latest decline. And gold and oil hold firm as natural gas edges lower.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 1/12/22: China PMI; Japan consumer confidence; German retail sales

The first day of December brings economic data and we’re watching EUR/GBP around key German retail sales data. In Japan, could consumer confidence move the Nikkei, and will there be more soft Chinese PMI numbers?

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Markets responding positively to Powell’s suggestions that smaller US rate rises may start in December – Elon Musk says only rate CUTS will avoid a recession  

Indices: CAC joins INDU in bull mkt. Europe expected to open higher

FX: DXY breaks support pushing up EUR GBP JPY etc etc. GBP awaiting N’wide house prices and EURUSD clears 200day SMA resistance awaiting German retail sales

Equities: FTSE reshuffle – IN…abrdn, Beazley, Weir vs OUT…Harbour Energy, Intermediate Capital and Dechra relegated

Commods: Gold biggest rise in 2 weeks and oil also up strongly after big drop in inventories

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Powell's dovish tone pushes indices, precious metals higher

Markets responded positively to Fed chair, Jerome Powell’s suggestions that smaller US rate rises may start in December.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 December 2022 

Equity market overview

US equity markets recorded strong gains yesterday after Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Jerome Powell said it was time to slow the pace of coming interest rate hikes.

In his last scheduled appearance before the Fed's next meeting in two weeks, Powell said the bank was "slowing down" from the pace of 75 basis point (bp) rate hikes that have prevailed since June. But he also signalled that the economic adjustments underway could mean a long period of elevated interest rates. "Cutting rates is not something we want to do soon. That's why we're slowing down and going to try to find our way to what that right level is."

Indices in the APAC region followed the lead set by US markets. In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI survey confirmed the downbeat data published in the official NBS survey yesterday. China's factory activity shrank for a fourth straight month in November. The index rose slightly to 49.4 from 49.2 the previous month and beat expectations of 48.9.

In Japan, the consumer confidence index declined in November to its lowest level since June 2020, to 28.6 from 29.9 a month earlier.

Equity markets in Europe also opened higher. In the UK, the Nationwide house price index rose by 4.4% in November year-on-year (YoY), after a 7.2% rise in October, and missed expectations of a 5.8% increase.

In Germany, retail sales fell more than expected, down 2.8% in October month-on-month (MoM). Economists had expected at 0.6% fall.

In the US, at 1.30pm, the market awaits personal income and spending for the month of October. Economists expect personal income to rise by 0.4% MoM, while spending should rise by 0.8%. At the same time Core PCE price index is forecast to rise by 5.9% in October YoY, after 6.2% in September.

And a bit later a 3pm, ISM manufacturing PMI is anticipated to fall below the 50 level for the first time since mid-2020, to 49.8. Last month the index managed to remain just above at 50.2. The index has been declining almost steadily since March 2021.

FTSE reshuffling

Elsewhere on the equity market, Edinburgh-based asset manager Abrdn is making a comeback to the UK's blue-chip stock index, while insurer Beazley will make its FTSE 100 debut in the benchmark's latest quarterly reshuffle.

Abrdn will re-enter the FTSE 100 next month after being demoted in August, alongside Lloyd's of London insurer Beazley and mining machinery firm Weir Group. The companies leaving the FTSE 100 are Harbour Energy, Intermediate Capital and Dechra Pharmaceuticals.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 1 December

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq surge after Powell comments. EUR/USD rises and USD/JPY slips on Powell’s dovish tone while EUR/GBP drops. And gold and Brent crude turn higher as dollar weakens, with natural gas on the back foot.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 2/12/22: German trade data; US jobs

It’s been a week where the short USD trade has won out and looking ahead to Friday it’s unlikely to be any different.

With a poor ADP number and Jerome Powell’s warning that rate rises may slow, many will be thinking that the US jobs data could undershoot.

That would be an opportunity to continue to go long EUR/USD and long S&P 500.

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Global indices drop Europe expected to open down

FX: USD continues to drop – has the Fed overdone rate rises? Watching EURUSD ahead of US jobs data. GBPUSD now at 16wk high

Equities: HSBC denies China pressure to break up – identifies more cost cuts

Commods: Gold above 200 day SMA for 1^st time in 5mths. Silver now up 30% from Sept lows. Oil holds the gains on the week

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: US dollar basket tests support after PCE data and ahead of NFPs

The US Dollar Basket is testing August support, after PCE data gave further indication yesterday that inflation may have peaked in the US.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 02 December 2022 

Equity market overview

Indices in the APAC region traded lower this morning, with stock in Japan leading the losses.

Yesterday US equity markets were little changed. The US Dollar Basket is testing August support, after PCE data gave further indication yesterday that inflation may have peaked in the US. PCE price index rose by 6% year-on-year (YoY) in November, after 6.3% the previous month. Core PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month (MoM), after 0.5% rise in October and missing expectations of 0.3% gain.

The fall of the dollar boosted precious metals. Gold is hovering around $,1800, and silver trades at a seven-month high.

The dollar will be tested again later today, at the release of non-farm payrolls (NFPs) for the month of November. Economists expect on average 200,000 job creations which would be their lowest level since December 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%, and average hourly earnings should rise by 0.3% MoM, 4.6% YoY.

Germany posted a trade surplus of €6.9 billion in October, as imports fell more than exports in October. At 10am, we await producer price index in the Eurozone. Economists expect a 2% fall in October compared to September, and a rise of 31.5% YoY.

Elsewhere on the equity markets, HSBC is once again making the headlines. After selling its operations in Canada, announcing the closure of 114 branches in the UK, and the review of its retail activity in New Zealand, the bank is cutting as many as 15% of its senior operations managers worldwide, according to Reuters.

HSBC CEO, Noel Quinn, said yesterday the bank has identified $1.7 billion of extra cost cuts it will make next year.

Ryanair says it transported 11.2 million passengers in November, a 10% rise YoY. Load factor rose by five percentage points to 92%.

Commodities

The European Union (EU) is getting closer to a deal on the Russian oil price cap. According to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters, governments tentatively agreed on Thursday to a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil. The agreement will still need approval from all EU governments.

Poland, which had pushed for the cap to be as low as possible, has not yet confirmed if it will support the deal.

Later today, we expect the weekly Baker Hughes oil rig count. Last week, the survey showed that total rig count rose by two to 784. The number of oil rigs in operation rose by four to 627, with the number of active gas rigs down two to 157.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 2 December

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 give back gains ahead of US unemployment data. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD gain ground ahead of US jobs report. And gold rallies and oil holds steady, while natural gas continues to drop back.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: HSI best performer as China said to be relaxing covid rules in SOME areas. Europe to open mixed to higher  

FX: USD continues to fall pushing EURUSD to 6mth high. USDJPY below 200 day SMA for 1^st time since April 2021

Equities: AAPL could move all sessions after Foxconn xpected to go back to full production in December   

Commods: Gold hits 5mth high on shrinking USD - silver 8mth high. Oil little moved as OPEC+ keeps oil production steady

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Hang Seng jumps as Chinese cities ease Covid restrictions

The Hang Seng is the best performer as China is said to be relaxing its strict Covid rules in some areas. Europe is meanwhile set to open mixed to higher.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 05 December 2022

Equity market overview

Equity markets mostly rose overnight in the Asia-Pacific region, with the Hang Seng showing strong gains as some Chinese cities announced the easing of Covid restrictions over the weekend.

Also in China, services activity shrank to six-month lows. The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 46.7 from 48.4, marking the third monthly contraction in a row. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 47.0 in November from 48.3 the previous month, driven by falls in both manufacturing and service sector production.

Later this afternoon at 3pm, ISM non-manufacturing PMI is also expected to fall but will remain in expansion territory. Economists forecast the index to drop to 53.1 in November, from 54.4 the previous month.

After recording its worst month (November) since September 2010, the US dollar remains on the back foot this morning as better-than-expected non-farm payrolls (NFPs) data and most recent China Covid news entice investors to look at risk-on assets. Gold and other precious metals benefit from dollar weakness. Gold is trading above $1,800.

Elsewhere on the equity markets, Foxconn should resume production in late December to early January at its Zhengzhou plant, the world's biggest iPhone factory.

According to a Reuters report last month, protests against strict Covid restrictions may have affected more than 30% of the site's November production.

Commodities

Over the weekend OPEC+ agreed to stick to its oil output targets as the oil markets struggle to assess the impact of a slowing Chinese economy on demand and a G7 price cap on Russian oil supply.

OPEC+, which comprises the OPEC nations and its allies including Russia, angered the United States and other Western nations in October when it agreed to cut output by two million barrels per day, about 2% of world demand, from November until the end of 2023.

This decision from OPEC+ came two days after the G7 agreed a price cap on Russian oil.

Meanwhile the Baker Hughes rig count in the US remained unchanged at 784, on Friday, 38% above levels a year ago at this time. Drilling rigs targeting crude oil and natural gas both stayed flat for the week, at 627 and 155 respectively, while two rigs remained classified as miscellaneous.

Lumber is meanwhile well on track to be the worst performing commodity in 2022. It fell below $400 per 1000 board feet for the first time since June 2020.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 5 December

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 cautious at start of a new week. EUR/USD extends gains while USD/JPY and EUR/GBP consolidate. And gold rises into resistance, as Brent crude and lumber weaken.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 6/12/22: AHT earnings; UK retail sales monitor

First half (H1) earnings at business services company Ashtead (AHT) takes top spot in a day of few earnings.

On the economic agenda is the British Retail Consortium with its sales monitor which is widely expected to show the difficulties faced by retailers across the spectrum.

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected down. London mixed as best performer. Wall St pulls-back from 3mth highs as USD climbs on strong US data

FX: RBA raises rates to 10yr high, AUSUSD small upward move vs a strong USD. EURUSD drops from 5mth high

Equities: Earnings AHT FERG. PAH to replace PUM in Dax40  

Commods: Gold biggest loss since mid-September as a reaction on strong USD. Oil down heavily. Lumber another new 32mth lower low

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: AUD/USD shows small upward move as RBA raises cash rate to 3.1%

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.1%, a level not seen since November 2012.

 

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 December 2022 

Equity market overview

US equity markets fell yesterday as the dollar rose following stronger-than-expected ISM services data.

In the Asia-Pacific region the session was mixed, with the Nikkei rising and ASX 200 losing ground. European indices opened lower.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.1%, a level not seen since November 2012. This decision marked the bank's eighth straight rate hike since it started raising rates in April. It's now raised rates a total of three full percentage points. This was the bank's final decision of the year.

In a statement, RBA governor, Philip Lowe said "The Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead, but it is not on a pre-set course", adding that "the size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market."

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) released its sales data overnight for November which has come as a surprise, beating the previous release. But there was also a warning. BRC retail sales monitor said retail sales in the United Kingdom jumped 4.1% on a like-for-like basis in November year-on-year (YoY), accelerating from a 1.2% rise the previous month.

But Helen Dickinson, chief executive at the British Retail Consortium, warned that "Sales picked up as Black Friday discounting marked the beginning of the festive shopping season. Also, sales growth remained far below current inflation, suggesting volumes continued to be down on last year."

This 4.1% increase was the highest since January, but less than half the pace of UK inflation which surged to a four-decade high of 11.1% in October.

Elsewhere on the equity market, Ashtead published a rise in profit and revenue for the first quarter (Q1) of its exercise, and now expects full-year (FY) results to be ahead of their previous expectations.

UK pub operator Marston's PLC posted lower-than-expected annual profit, but said sales were encouraging since the start of the current fiscal year.

Forex

Currency traders await US trade balance at 1.30pm. US trade deficit is expected to widen to $80 billion in October. In September, the deficit reached $73.3bn.

The US dollar strengthened yesterday afternoon as the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rose to 56.5 in November, after 54.4 the previous month. Economists had anticipated a decline to 53.3. As the dollar rose, oil, precious and base metals retreated.

The FT reported this morning that the UK Treasury is finalising plans for a package of sweeping rules to regulate the cryptocurrency industry, including limits on foreign companies selling into the UK, provisions for how to deal with the collapse of companies and restrictions on the advertising of products.

Ministers will shortly launch a consultation on the new regulatory regime, after the implosion of FTX injected fresh urgency into the government's promise to impose order on finance's "wild west".

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 6 December

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq surge after Powell comments. US data bolsters USD/JPY while weakening EUR/USD and GBP/USD. And Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas slide on appreciating US dollar.

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Concerns about the outlook for growth hit markets on Tuesday with some global indices down at 3wk lows. London among least worse performers and expecting a small rise at the start today. HSI down 1% despite China eases more covid rules

FX: USD climbs the a 3^rd day as safe haven flows return. AUDUSD down for 3^rd day as Aussie GDP slows. Watching USDCAD as BoC expected to raise rates 50bps   

Equities: US banks warn of recession. Earnings – MOON REDD MAB AIR

Commods: Recession fears crushing oil now at lows for the year. Gold little move holding recent lows

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: renewed recession fears hit equity markets while USD climbs

Concerns about the outlook for growth hit markets on Tuesday with some global indices down at three-week lows.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 December 2022 

Macro overview

Equity markets were down overnight following the lead of US session yesterday. The mood dampened as top bankers from JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs said they were gearing up for a potential recession next year.

According to JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon, American consumers are still supporting the US economy with consumer spending, but that may change in 2023. He told CNBC yesterday that consumers have $1.5 trillion in excess savings from pandemic stimulus programs, but are now spending 10% more than they did in 2021.

Australia's economy expanded in the third quarter (Q3), for the fourth quarter in a row, but at its slowest pace in the sequence. GDP rose 0.6% in the third quarter, compared with 0.9% the previous quarter and just under forecasts of 0.7%. Annual growth rose by 5.9% year-on-year (YoY), compared to expectations of 6.2%.

China trade surplus missed expectations as exports and imports shrank at a much steeper than expected pace in November. Exports contracted 8.7% in November from a year earlier, the worst performance since February 2020, and well below analysts' expectations for a 3.5% decline. Imports fell by 10.6%. Economists expected a 6% fall.

In Europe, Germany industrial production fell less than expected in October. Industrial output was down 0.1% on the previous month. Expectations were for a 0.6% decrease.

And Halifax house price index showed the sharpest month-on-month (MoM) decline in the UK in 14 years, down 2.3% in November. Year on year, the index rose 4.7%, nearly half the pace recorded the previous month.

At 10am, market awaits the final estimate of eurozone GDP in the third quarter. Economists anticipate a 0.2% fall compared to the previous quarter.

Later this afternoon, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will unveil its last rate decision in 2022. The market expects a 50 basis point (bp) increase to 4.25%. At its last meeting in October the Bank hiked its rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, which was lower that the 75 bp expected.

Its governor, Tiff Macklem reiterated last week that "If we don't do enough, Canadians will continue to endure the hardship of high inflation. And they will come to expect persistently high inflation, which will require much higher interest rates and, potentially, a severe recession to control inflation," adding that "If we do too much, we could slow the economy more than needed. And we know that has harmful consequences for people's ability to service their debts, for their jobs and for their businesses."

Equity markets

On the equity market, Moonpig Group posted an adjusted profit of £18.9 million in the first half (H1), after £24.1m a year ago. Revenue rose 115.4% to £142.8m. The group indicated that trading conditions have become progressively more challenging through October and November.

Mitchells & Butlers the owner of Harvester and All Bar One, posted a full year (FY) operating profit of £124m, compared to £81m a year earlier. The pub group flagged challenges arising from surging energy and labour costs.

Airbus announced yesterday that it was abandoning its delivery target of "around 700" aircraft in 2022. Airbus has delivered a net total of 563 aircraft between January and November, which led to analyst estimates of a total of 680 potential deliveries this year.

Commodities

Brent has fallen below $80, nearing 2022 lows.

Yesterday, API inventories followed the same pattern as last week: crude oil stock dropped, while refined product stocks increased. Crude oil stocks fell for a fourth week in a row by nearly 6.5 million barrels, while gasoline stocks increased by 5.93 million barrels and distillate stocks by 3.55 million barrels.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 7 December

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 drop on recession fears. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD head down towards key support levels.

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 8/12/22: Japanese GDP; AU trade data

With the final estimate of Japanese GDP coming in overnight, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at USD/JPY. Then with Aussie trade data AUD/GBP could be an interesting trade as it approaches some big support.

On the corporate agenda, watch Frasers group following concerns about a warning going into the all-important Christmas period.

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Recession fears continue to circle the mkts. Europe to open lower

FX: Little or no move. Watching EURUSD around US weekly jobless claims. JPN GDP slight improvement – no move in USDJPY

Equities: Earnings – FRAS BBY DS AVGO COST. TSLA possible margin loan to support Musk TWTR debt

Commods: Oil down again on recession fears – Brent now down at Dec 2021 levels. Gold little changed

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: equity markets remain hesitant as recession fears linger

Recession fears continue to circle the markets

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 December 2022 

Equity market overview

APAC equity markets ended up mostly in the red following a similar session in the US. Only Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded higher as the city is considering easing Covid rules.

In Europe indices are set open marginally higher.

Japan's economy shrank less than initially estimated in the third quarter (Q3). The world's third largest economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter compared to Q3, after a previous estimate of -0.3%. Year-on-year (YoY), GDP shrank by 0.8% compared with economists' median forecast of a 1.1% decline and an early estimate of a 1.2% contraction.

In Australia, trade surplus declined to A$12.2 billion in October from the previous month and broadly in line with market forecast. Exports and imports both fell by 1% from a month earlier.

Central Banks

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by 50 basis points (bp) to 4.25%, its highest level in almost 15 years. The central bank has raised rates at a record pace of 400 basis points in nine months. But it also changed its forward guidance and is not saying it will have to rise further.

Instead, the bank said that "Looking ahead, Governing Council will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target."

Meanwhile a Reuters poll published this morning revealed that 52 of the 54 economists asked think that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike by 50 basis points, taking borrowing costs to 3.5%.

In the US at 1.30pm we await initial jobless claims. The market expects 230,000 new claimants last week.

Earnings

Frasers Group has kept its financial guidance for its full 2022-23 year. It still expects full-year (FY) adjusted profit before tax of £450-500 million. The owner of Sports Direct posted a 38.8% rise in first-half profit, defying a downturn across the wider retail sector.

We saw another upbeat statement came from DS Smith. After posting a 28% increase in revenue and a pretax profit of £315 million in the first half, the group said this morning it expects its FY performance to be ahead of previous expectations.

Just after results, JPMorgan announced it was raising its target price on the stock to 411p from 350p. According to Bloomberg, bankers are considering providing Elon Musk with new margin loans backed by Tesla stock to replace some of the high-interest debt on his Twitter deal.

The discussions have so far centred around replacing the $3 billion of unsecured debt on which Twitter pays an interest rate of 11.75%. Musk's Twitter deal was closed with a $33.5bn equity commitment: $7.1bn from investors, and $13bn in loans from banks.

Tesla shares meanwhile fell further yesterday as investors expressed doubts over model Y production in China. Earlier this week, Reuters revealed that production would drop by 20% in December, a comment that the carmaker has denied. The steep drop in Tesla shares means that Musk briefly lost his title as the world's richest person yesterday, according to Forbes.

Bernard Arnault, the chief executive of luxury brand Louis Vuitton's parent company and his family briefly took the title of the world's richest but were back at No. 2 with a personal wealth of $185.3 billion. Musk has a net worth of $185.7 billion.

Chevron announced yesterday it has increased its 2023 capital spending budget by a double-digit percentage from this year to $17 billion. This is due to inflation that has driven up energy production costs, and investments into low-carbon fuel projects.

Commodities

Oil prices this morning are falling further. The EIA said yesterday that crude inventories fell by 5.2 million barrels last week.

Gasoline stocks rose by 5.3 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 6.2 million barrels.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 8 December

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking for a positive catalyst. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CAD consolidate. And gold, Brent, and lumber at risk of bearish price pressure as market risks grow.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 9/12/22: China CPI; US PPI

Inflation data dominates on what is otherwise a quiet close to the week. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the Hang Seng index around Chinese consumer price inflation and EUR/USD later in the day for American producer prices.

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Looking for a stronger start across Europe. HIS continues to be the best performer as China supports ppty sector

FX: China inflation slowest increase in 8mths USDCNH near lowest in 3mths. EURUSD on 6mth high ahead of US PPI and Mich consumer confidence

Commods: Appears little or no sign of a bottom yet in crude prices. Iron ore on for a 6^th weekly gain. Gold up for 4^th day and back up over 200 day sma   

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: China consumer inflation falls as demand softens

China inflation shows its slowest increase in eight months while USD/CNH near its lowest level in three months.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 09 December 2022 

Indices overview

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led gains for a second straight day. The rest of the APAC region also ended the session higher, following the path set by US indices.

Equally, indices in Europe start the day in positive territory.

In China, the consumer price index (CPI) rose at its slowest pace in eight months in November, climbing 1.6% from a year earlier, which was less than the 2.1% annual rise seen in October and in line with consensus.The producer price index was down 1.3% from a year earlier, unchanged from an annual contraction seen in October.

Producer deflation was led by the steel industry, in which prices were down 18.7%. As we get further indications of an economic slowdown, heading in some areas to a recession, global demand is worsening and oil prices are falling further.

Central Banks

In the current context of economic downturn, the Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) will each decide on interest rates next week and scaling back seems to be the common denominator.

According to a Reuters poll published on Friday, the ECB will take its deposit rate up by 50 basis points (bp) on Thursday 15 December to 2.00%. This is the view of 51 of 60 economists surveyed, while two said the ECB would be more cautious and seven said it would be more aggressive.

The ECB started its fight against inflation in July this year, later than its peers. But since then, it's been raising rates at its fastest pace on record. It has added 200 basis points to its key deposit rate in six months, taking it to 1.50%.

Yesterday, another Reuters poll revealed that 52 of the 54 economists think that the Bank of England will also raise rates by 50 basis points, taking borrowing costs to 3.5%.

And in the US the Fed is also likely to raise by half a percentage point to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%. The last time each of these three central banks met, they all raised their benchmark rates by 75 basis points.

Earnings

Elsewhere on the equity market, Berkeley Group says it expects build cost inflation to start to moderate during 2023 from current elevated levels.

Revenue came in at £1.2 billion, £20 million lower than last year. Berkeley Group this morning posted profit before tax of £284.8 million, marginally lower than the £290.7m reported in the first half (H1) of last year, and says it is on track to deliver pretax profit of approximately £600 million this fiscal year.

And Pendragon top investor Hedin Mobility has dropped its pursuit to take over the British auto retailer. In a statement released this morning, both parties cited challenging market conditions and an uncertain economic outlook.

Hedin currently owns nearly 28% of Pendragon. It had proposed earlier in September to buy Pendragon for 29 pence per share, valuing it at about £406m. The announcement sent the share price up by 21% at the time.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 9 December

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 regain lost ground ahead of US PPI data. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD look to continue their bullish two-month trend. And gold and natural gas edge higher but oil prices keep falling.

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

 

Indices: Europe expected lower  

FX: Mkts, this week focused in on central bank meetings at Fed, BoE, ECB & SNB

Equities: COIN at a record low as punters withdraw cryptos from exchanges in the wake of FTX scandal/crisis  

Commods: Gold down after 4 days of gains. Silver down after new 7 ½ mth high. Oil continues near Friday’s near 1yr low

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: dollar stands firm ahead of busy data week

Markets are this week focused on central bank meetings at the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 12 December 2022 

Equity market overview

Asia-Pacific indices recorded losses overnight, after a negative session in the US on Friday.

European equity markets also start the week lower. UK GDP expanded 0.5% on October month-on-month (MoM), a rebound after the 0.6% drop in September, and better than the 0.4% expected. Industrial production fell in October, but not as much as forecast. Output fell by 2.4% year-on-year (YoY). Economists expected a 2.8% fall.

This week, three central banks meet and decide on their rates for the last time of the year. Starting on Wednesday with he US Federal Reserve (Fed) which is likely to raise by half a percentage point to a target range of 4.25%-4.5%.

On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are also widely expected to raise rates by 50 basis points, taking borrowing costs to 3.5% and 2% respectively. The last time each of these three central banks met, they all raised their benchmark rates by 75 basis points.

Microsoft will buy about 4% in LSE group as part of a 10-year commercial deal to migrate the bourse operator’s exchange data platform into the cloud.

The Wall Street Journal revealed this weekend that Amgen is now the frontrunner in the Horizon Therapeutics deal. According to the paper, Amgen is in advanced talks to buy the biotech company as rival Sanofi announced it had dropped its bid, adding the deal could be finalised as early as today. It all started last month when Horizon Therapeutics said it was in talks with Amgen, Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson's Janssen Global Services unit.

Last week, Janssen decided to pull out, followed on Sunday by Sanofi who said the "transaction price expectations do not meet [their] value creation criteria". The Wall Street journal doesn't mention any price for the deal, but the Financial Times, citing sources close to the matter, says the transaction could be worth as much as $20 billion.

Commodities

US energy firms cut the number of their operating oil and gas rigs for the first time in six weeks. According to Baker Hughes on Friday, the total rig count in the US fell by four to 780.

The number of oil rigs in operation dropped by two to 625 and gas rigs also fell by two to 153.

Cryptos

The speed of the collapse of FTX has shaken the cryptocurrency market to the point that investors are heading for the exit.

In November, crypto investors pulled a record 91,363 bitcoin, worth about $1.5bn, the largest outflow on record.

Bitcoin has plunged 64% so far this year, and the online platform Coinbase's share price just hit a new record low.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 12 December

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 subdued ahead of Fed and ECB meetings. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY consolidate ahead of central bank meetings. And gold struggles, as Brent crude and natural gas see energy market divergence.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.