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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Down as US inflation comes in hotter than expected & China rebound not coming as forecast. Despite this UKX breaches 8000 for the first ever time but Europe expected to open down. Asia down overnight

FX: Watching GBP ahead of UK CPI

Equities: Earnings – BARC DNLM GLEN. ABNB up almost 14% after earnings beat and improved outlook.  

Commods: Oil down for a 3rd day on concerns demand may not come through as expected earlier in the year. Gold edging closer to 1833 support and below 50 SMA for 1st time in 3mths  

 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: UKX makes history by breaching 8000 mark

The FTSE 100 has made history by breaching the 8000 mark for the first time ever, while Europe is expected to open down.

Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 February 2023

 

 

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 15 February

FTSE 100 comes off record high, DAX 40 and Euro Stoxx 50 slip post US CPI reading. And stronger dollar drives gold, oil and platinum lower.

Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 February 2023

 

 

 

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Look Ahead to 16/02/23: Japan trade; US producer prices; Banks, Airbus and Nestle earnings

A day after UK inflation showed signs of easing, the US releases producer price data. Standard Chartered (STAN) and Commerzbank (CBKG) report a day after Barclays’ (BARC) profit fall. Plus, Nestle (NESN) reports FY results.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 February 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Another day another record high for FTSE100. CAC40 up now just 0.5% away from record high, Dax near 1yr high. Europe expected up on strong earnings  

Equities: CSCO jumps 10% after good earnings and outlook. Good earnings today from STAN CBK NESN AIR  

FX: USD climbs to a 5mth high. Record trade deficit in Japan helps Yen to lows for 2023

Commods:  Gold another leg lower as USD strengthens. Oil up but remains range bound 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: another day of record highs for the FTSE 100

It's been another day of record highs for the FTSE 100, with the CAC 40 now just 0.5% away from its own record high, and the DAX near a one-year high. Strong earnings are expected to continue driving European markets upwards.

Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 February 2023

 

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 16 February

FTSE 100 at new record high, as DAX and S&P 500 push higher. And gold, Brent crude and natural gas at risk of another turn lower.

Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 16 February 2023

 

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

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Look Ahead to 17/02/23: UK retail sales; US trade data; Natwest, Allianz earnings

Economic data dominates on both sides of the Atlantic. The UK releases retail sales and the US unveils import and export prices. Keep an eye out for results from Natwest (NWG), Allianz (ALVG), and Swiss Re (SRENH).

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 February 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

Volatility has seen its biggest gain this year after stubbornly high US inflation data – this time PPI, down from the prior month but not dropping as fast as expected

Indices: Inflationary worries in the US takes Wall St down and is expected to see Europe open lower. Asia down across the board

FX USD new 7wk high after yesterday’s PPI and news that the Fed’s Bullard voted for 50bps at last meeting and wants 50bps at next mtg. Watching GBP today with UK retail sales

Equities: Earnings – NWG ALV SREN

Commods: Gold down past support next price target 200 day sma at 1776. Oil down on demand concerns that have dogged the minerals markets this week 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: US inflationary concerns affect markets

Volatility has seen its biggest gain this year after stubbornly high US inflation data, this time PPI, down from the prior month but not dropping as fast as expected.

Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 17 February 2023

 

 

 

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 17 February

FTSE 100 comes off record high, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 look toppish. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD head lower as the dollar dominates. And gold, oil and lumber prices under pressure again.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 February 2023

 

 

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: After gains on Wall St on Friday Europe expected up although US stocks will be out today because of Presidents Day

FX: USD down for a second day in a small retracement from recent highs. Rightmove house price index in UK up £14 smallest Feb gain on record 

Equities: META to roll out a new paid verification service for Facebook and Instagram. No meaningful earnings in the diary today, later this week HSBA LLOY COIN MRNA WMT HD NVDA   

Commods: Gold up for a second day along with a small climb for oil 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: Will the FTSE 100 climb to new highs this week?

After gains on Wall Street on Friday, Europe is expected up although US stocks will be out today because of Presidents' Day.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 20 February 2023 

Central banks

Central banks take centre stage this week.

In China, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for a sixth straight month. The one-year and five-year LPR remain at 3.65% and 4.3% respectively.

Tuesday will bring more detail from the Australian central bank when the minutes are released from the last meeting at which the authorities raised rates by 0.25% to 3.35%.

On Wednesday, New Zealand's RBNZ is expected to raise a further 50-basis points (bp) to 4.75%.

Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes are expected on Wednesday 1 March, from the last meeting at which the US central bank raised rates 25-bp to between 4.5 to 4.75%. The report will highlight the voting and despite a unanimous vote for a 25-bp rise in the Fed funds rate, non-voting members such as Bullard and Mester favoured a 50 bp hike.

James Bullard's speech last week saw him suggest he believes that 50-bp is still needed at the March meeting.

In the UK, the Rightmove house price index was almost flat in February compared to January. To be precise, the average asking price rose by £14, a surprising number considering February usually sees a big seasonal increase. It was the smallest February rise on record. Year-on-year (YoY), asking prices rose 3.9%.

Rightmove said the minimal increase - effectively zero in percentage terms - suggested that property sellers were heeding advice to price their homes realistically in order to sell them into a market which has slowed sharply in recent months.

At 3pm, Eurozone consumer confidence flash is expected to rise to -19 in February, after -20.9 the previous month.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity market, Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp owner Meta will launch a paid subscription service, costing $14.99, that will allow Facebook and Instagram users to verify their accounts. The new feature, called Meta Verified, lets users obtain a 'blue badge, get extra impersonation protection against accounts and get direct access to customer support'. It will cost $11.99 for web access or $14.99 a month on Apple's iOS operating system and on Android.

FT says that Meta Verified will be rolled out first in Australia and New Zealand this week.

After Barclays and NatWest fell short of investors' expectations last week on earnings and Standard Chartered impressed, this week it's the turn of HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group to report, on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

But it's not just banks that could move the market: Rolls-Royce, Rio Tinto, WPP and Anglo American are scheduled to post full-year (FY) earnings.

Meanwhile, we are at the tail end of the US earnings season. Walmart, Home Depot and Coinbase will report on Tuesday, followed by NVIDIA and eBay on Wednesday, and Moderna on Thursday.

 

 

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 20 February

FTSE 100 & DAX still looking strong, but S&P 500 struggles. EUR/USD, AUD/USD recover during US Presidents' Day holiday while EUR/GBP slips.

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 20 February 2023 

 

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

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Look Ahead to 21/02/23: RBA minutes; ZEW; HSBC, Walmart and InterContinental earnings

RBA minutes are likely to show the Australian central bank is not done hiking rates yet. Economic risk events: ZEW, Canadian CPI and US home sales. HSBC (HSBA), InterContinental (IHG), and Walmart (WMT) report.

 

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 20 February 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: US markets back today after the long weekend. Europe set to open slightly down

FX: EURUSD awaiting German ZEW expected to climb again. USDCAD ahead of Canada retail sales and CPI data

Equities: Earnings today – HSBA (down 1,3% in HK), BHP (down 0.4% in Aus) IHG ANTO SN WMT HD COIN BABA

Commods: Little weakness across the board 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 remains near all-time high amid contrasting earnings reports

BHP Group posted a larger-than-expected fall in first-half profit while HSBC posted a 92% increase in quarterly profit, beating estimates.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 February 2023 

Equity market overview

APAC equity markets closed marginally down, following a European session that saw little variations. This was due to a lack of direction from the US where markets were closed to celebrate George Washington’s birthday.

In Australia, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on 7 February show that it abandoned all thought of pausing its tightening policy and signalled more rate hikes would be needed in the months ahead. There were only two options for the board members: a 25 or 50-basis point (bp) hike. Eventually, it settled on a quarter point rise, which brought the cash rate to a fresh decade-high of 3.35%.

Since last May RBA rates have risen by 325 basis points. "The recent inflation data suggested more breadth and persistence in inflation than had been expected and that strong demand was leading to price increases in some parts of the economy," the minutes said. "While inflation was expected to decline, there was a risk that it could persist at an uncomfortably high level, which would entail longer-term costs." Inflation is currently running at a 32-year high of 7.8% and is only expected to slow to the top of the RBA's target range of 2-3% by mid-2025. As for the market, it expects a peak for interest rates to 4.2%, compared with 3.6% back in January.

In Europe, the market awaits S&P Global PMI manufacturing and services PMI for February, and Germany ZEW economic sentiment. The index is expected to rise for a fifth straight month to 22 in February, from 19.6 in January. Last month the index jumped by about 40 points to end a 10-month period below 0, which means that a majority of economists and analysts are optimistic for the German economy.

Macroeconomics

On the other side of the Atlantic, a couple of macroeconomic indicators could move the Canadian dollar later today. At 1.30pm, Canada's consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to fall to 6,1% in January year-on-year (YoY), continuing to cool from the beginning 8.1% peak reached in June 2022.

Also at 1.30pm, retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5% in December month-on-month (MoM).

And in the US at 3pm, existing home sales are expected to rise by 2% in January YoY, ending 11 months of decline.

Corporate news

Elsewhere on the corporate front, BHP Group posted a larger-than-expected fall in first-half (H1) profit. Underlying profit from continuing operations fell 32% to $6.6 billion, missing estimates of $6.82bn. The group proposes an interim dividend of 90 cents per share, down 40% compared to last year.

BHP said it logged a $1bn inflation hit, primarily from diesel costs, for the half, and added that the lag effect of inflation and continued labour market tightness will impact its cost base into the 2024 financial year.

One bright spot though was China, which appears to be a "source of stability" for the commodity demand. According to BHP CEO Mike Henry, "There's a lot there that is giving us confidence that we will see an acceleration in the Chinese domestic economy."

Another miner, Antofagasta reported a 39% fall in full-year profit to, as high input costs and a drought in Chile hit its copper production. EBITDA was $2.9 billion, compared with $4.84 billion the previous year.

HSBC posted a 92% increase in quarterly profit, beating estimates. Pretax earnings rose to $5.2bn for the fourth quarter (Q4), up from $2.7bn a year earlier and ahead of the $4.96bn average estimate of analysts compiled by the bank.

Despite the fourth quarter increase, annual profit fell to $17.5bn from $18.9bn in 2021, due to an impairment of $2.4 billion related to the sale of its retail banking operations in France. Annual credit losses rose to $3.6bn, more than the $3.2bn expected. The bank intends to pay a special dividend of $0.21 per share, as a priority use of the proceeds from the $10 billion sale of its Canada business.

InterContinental Hotels Group posted higher full-year profit, helped by strong occupancy demand during the holidays and higher room prices. Operating profit rose 55% to $828 million. The group plans to buy back shares to return an additional $750 million in 2023.

In the US, Walmart is scheduled to post its Q4 earnings before the market open. The market expects earnings of $1.52 per share on revenue close to $160bn. Over the past 12 months, Walmart has seen its share price increase by just over 8%, but the period has been quite a ride for the retailer.

Another all-session stock due to report before the opening bell is Home Depot. The group is expected to post earnings of $3.28 per share on revenue close to £36bn, down some of 7% YoY.

Alibaba is expected to report earnings later this morning. The Chinese e-commerce legacy business is facing real challenges to revive its growth despite China's reopening and the abating regulatory fears.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.89, higher than the $1.5 reported in the previous quarter but remains 14% lower than the same quarter in 2021. The group's revenue is anticipated to shrink 6% year-over-year to $35.85 billion.

Tonight, after the US closing bell, analysts anticipate Coinbase Global to post a loss if ¢2.51 per share on revenue of $588m.

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 21 February

PMI volatility ahead as FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq ease back. And WTI and gold resume their descents as copper rallies post US President Day.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 February 2023

 

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

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Look Ahead to 22/02/23: Fed minutes; Ifo; Lloyds, Rio Tinto and NVIDIA earnings

The Fed minutes and the latest reading on German business morale come as data indicates a brightening in the outlook for the euro zone economy. Watch for key results from Lloyds (LLOY), Rio Tinto (RIO) and NVIDIA (NVDA).

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 February 2023

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Economic reality hitting US retail earnings taking Wall St down tech badly hit, Europe to open lower, Asia down across the board HSI now in correction, ASX200 closed  

FX: USD at recent highs. USDJPY 8 wk high. Watching EURUSD ahead of German Ifo and Fed minutes

Equities: Earnings today – RIO LLOY STLAP NVDA EBAY. Last night COIN down 5.5% on Q4

Commods: Little move for gold, oil and base metals. 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 opens lower as Rio Tinto profits fall and Lloyds' credit losses rise

Lloyds Banking Group reported flat annual profit for 2022 of £6.9 billion, while Rio Tinto's underlying profit fell 37.9% to $13.28 billion, missing expectations of $13.96bn.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 February 2023 

Equity market overview

US indices posted losses in excess of 2% in yesterday’s session, led by technology stocks.

APAC equity markets followed suit overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 recording the worst performance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng showed little reaction to the release of the region’s growth data. Fourth quarter (Q4) GDP fell 3.5%, but the economy is expected to expand between 3.5% and 5.5% in 2023.

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its official cash rate by 50 basis points (bp) to 4.75%, a 14-year high, and expects to keep tightening further as inflation remains too high. New Zealand's annual inflation is currently running near three-decade highs of 7.2%, close to an estimated peak of 7.3%.

The RBNZ continues to expect the official cash rate to peak at 5.5% in 2023.

Europe main indices open lower this morning, after posting losses of about 0.5% yesterday. At 9am, Germany Ifo business climate is expected to rise for a fifth straight month to 91.2 in February, one point more than the previous month.

Yesterday the ZEW economic sentiment rose more than forecast to 28.1, a one-year high.

Tonight, the market awaits the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes. At its last meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4.5 - 4.75%, with chair Jerome Powell arguing that the disinflationary process had started.

The tone seemed dovish at the time, however, the market now wants to know whether board members discussed higher rate hikes. Since that meeting, US consumer price index (CPI), although decelerating to 6.4% year-on-year (YoY), was higher than the 6.2% forecast.

Corporate news

Lloyds Banking Group reported flat annual profit for 2022 of £6.9 billion, in line with analyst forecasts compiled by the bank. The bank announced a final dividend of 1.6 pence per share and a share buyback of up to £2 billion, taking total shareholder returns for 2022 up to £3.6 billion.

Rio Tinto posted full-year (FY) earnings after the Australian market close. Underlying profit fell 37.9% to $13.28bn, missing expectations of $13.96bn. The miner suffered from weaker iron ore prices due to slowing demand from top consumer China.

But like BHP on Tuesday, Rio Tinto said China consumption showed signs of rebounding although the economy remained volatile.

The group, however, lowered its capital investments guidance for 2023 to $8 billion from a prior estimate of between $8 billion and $9 billion. It also halved its dividend, announcing a final dividend per share of $2.2500, to be compared with $4.17 last year. It still offers one of the best dividends on the FTSE 100.

Stellantis' operating profit grew 17% in the second half to €10.95bn, topping analysts’ expectations of €9.63bn. The company also announced a €4.2bn dividend on 2022 results, or €1.34 per share, and said it would propose a share buyback program worth up to €1.5 billion to be performed by the end of this year.

In the US, Coinbase reported a loss for the fourth quarter, as the crypto sector was hit by the fall of FTX last November. The crypto exchange posted a loss of $2.46 per share on revenue of $629 million. That is marginally better than EPS of $2.51 and $588m in revenue anticipated by analysts. A year ago, revenue reached $2.5bn.

Coinbase's trading volume plunged to $145bn in the fourth quarter, compared with $547bn a year earlier. Retail traders also pulled back significantly, with their trading volume in the quarter plummeting nearly 89% to $20bn.

Subscription and services revenue however rose about 33% to $282.8m in the period, benefiting from hefty interest rate hikes. The crypto exchange forecast revenue in that segment to rise to between $300m and $325m, above Wall Street estimates.

NVIDIA is set to report earnings tonight after the US closing bell. The market expects earnings of 81 cents per share, a 61.5% drop compared to the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is anticipated to increase by about 21% to $6.01nn.

New US trade rules and export limitations introduced in 2022 have put the group's revenues under pressure. Investors await an update on the new graphics card NVIDIA is rumoured to launch in April, one that is likely to become the fastest of its kind in the gaming world.

 

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 22 February

Dow in negative territory year-to-date while FTSE 100 and DAX 40 also point lower. Dollar strength likely to drive EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD lower. And stronger dollar weighs on gold, oil and lumber prices.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 February 2023

 

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

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Look Ahead 23/2/23: US GDP; jobless; Rolls-Royce, WPP and Moderna earnings

US GDP growth estimates and initial jobless claims provide further hints to whether or not the US economy can achieve a soft landing. WPP (WPP), Rolls-Royce (RR) and Moderna (MRNA) spice up the earnings diary.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 22 February 2023

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage: 

Indices: Europe looking slightly stronger at the start but UKX finding it a little more difficult and is currently flat. Asia down overnight

FX: USD closed at 6wk high after Fed minutes keeps the pressure on US rates

Equities: Earnings – RR WPP AAL HAS HIK BAE CS MUV2 MRNA. Last night NVDA up 9.5%

Commods:  Gold closed below support and is now looking weak down to 200 day sma at 1774. Oil holding recent declines, yesterday big drop on more demand concerns

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 earnings reports see Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems post upbeat results

Rolls-Royce's full-year underlying operating profit rose 57% to £652 million, while BAE Systems posted underlying earnings up 9.5%, and lifted its annual dividend by 7.6%, citing confidence in long-term growth.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 February 2023 

Equity market overview

US equity markets ended the session little changed after the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes. They confirmed that a solid majority of Fed officials agreed to slow the pace of increases in the Federal funds rate to a quarter point.

They also acknowledged the risks of high inflation remained a "key factor" shaping monetary policy and warranted continued hikes in borrowing costs until it was under control.

Last week two influential non-voting members, James Bullard and Loretta Mester, both confirmed that they would have liked to have seen another 50-basis point (bp) move, Bullard telling the markets that he still believes the Fed should go another half point at its next meeting.

The dollar extended its gains after the Fed minutes. Today, currency traders await the second GDP estimate for the fourth quarter (Q4). Economists anticipate a 2.9% rise quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).

Earnings

Rolls-Royce's full-year (FY) underlying operating profit rose 57% to £652 million, helped by a better performance in Civil Aerospace and Power Systems.

Anglo American posted an adjusted EBITDA of $14.5 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $4.97, better than the $4.85 expected by the market.

BAE Systems posted underlying earnings up 9.5%, and lifted its annual dividend by 7.6%, citing confidence in long-term growth.

French insurer AXA posted a lower-than-expected full-year earnings. Net income fell by 8% year-on-year (YoY) to €6.7bn in 2022. This missed the €7.22bn consensus of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv. Gross revenues over the year were up 2% to €102.3 billion.

AXA raised its 2023 guidance, announced a share buy-back programme of up to €1.1bn this year and a dividend of 1.70 per share.

German reinsurer Munich Re posted a 74% rise in net profit in the fourth quarter, to €1.52bn. Profits for 2022 rose to €3.42bn, higher than the €3.29bn analysts had expected.

On Wednesday, Munich announced it would raise its dividend and buy back up to €1bn worth of shares.

NVIDIA shares jumped in extended trading, as the chip maker reported better-than-expected earnings and guidance. The group posted an adjusted profit of 88 cents per share for its fourth quarter, beating analyst estimates of 81 cents. Revenue reached $6.05 billion, compared with analysts' estimate of $6.01 billion.

NVIDIA forecast first quarter revenue of $6.50bn, plus or minus 2%, higher than the $6.33bn anticipated by analysts.

Artificial Intelligence has been the catalyst of this set of earnings. NVIDIA's CEO said the use of its chips to power AI services like chatbots had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days."

Like other Covid vaccine makers, Moderna's sales are likely to have been much lower than a year ago, with the impact of the pandemic receding. Today, Moderna is expected to report earnings of $4.70 per share on revenue of just over $5.05bn.

In the same quarter a year ago, Moderna posted EPS of $11.29, and revenue reached $7.21bn.

Commodities

US crude oil inventories increased substantially last week, according to the API. Crude oil stocks rose by nearly 10 million barrels last week.

Gasoline stockpiles rose by 900,000 barrels and distillate stocks rose 1.4 million barrels.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: European mkts to open up after gains across Wall St yesterday, but a mixed performance overnight in Asia. NKY best performer on new BoJ Gov 'loose policy' comments

FX: USD JPY little changed despite Japan inflation at 42 year high - incoming BoJ Gov saying he wants to maintain loose policy. GBP little moved - UK consumer confidence at 10mth high 

Equities: Earnings – IAG HOLN 

Commods: Gold little moved. Oil on track for second week of decline despite being up for a second day. Orange Juice back on the way up 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: Japan's consumer inflation rises to 42-year high

Consumer price index rose 4.3% in January year-on-year, accelerating from a 4% rise in December to a level not seen since December 1981.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 24 February 2023 09:47

Japan CPI soars

Japan's consumer inflation is now at a 42-year high. Consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.3% in January year-on-year (YoY), accelerating from a 4% rise in December to a level not seen since December 1981. Core CPI increased by 4.2% in January YoY, in line with expectations.

Yet, incoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor Kazuo Ueda, named earlier this month, expressed his intention to maintain the central bank's ultra-low interest rates for the time being to support the country's fragile economy.

Speaking to Japan's lower house, Ueda said the recent rise in inflation is driven largely by rising raw material import costs, rather than strong demand: "It's standard practice to act preemptively to demand-driven inflation, but not respond immediately to supply-driven inflation".

Other major economic news

After recent signs of improvement in the UK economy, GfK's headline consumer confidence index rose by more than expected to a 10-month high in February. The index increased to -38 in February, from -45 the previous month. This seven-point increase is the biggest month-on-month improvement in almost two years. Economists expected a rise to -43. But there is still a long way to go to the -7 recorded in February 2020, just before the Coronavirus pandemic hit.

And the cost-of-living crisis remains a challenge for UK consumers. The survey shows that nearly half of consumers are now digging into their savings and one in 10 are taking on debt to cover essential costs.

In Germany, the second estimate of GDP shows a contraction of 0.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), compared to expectations of -0.2%. Gfk consumer confidence improved to -30.5 in March.

In the US, the dollar could react to the core PCE price index due at 1.30pm, which is expected to rise 0.4% in January month-on-month (MoM), and 4.3% YoY. The greenback trades at a seven-week high against the euro.

Earnings

IAG posted profit for 2022. Profit after tax came in at €431 million, following a loss of €2.93 billion a year ago. The group also announced yesterday evening after European markets closed that it had agreed to pay €400m for the remaining 80% of Air Europa it did not already own.

Commodities

Oil prices are on track to post a second straight week of declines.

According to EIA data, US crude oil inventories rose for the ninth week in a row to their highest level since May 2021. Crude oil inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels last week. This was partly due to ongoing refinery maintenance.

Refinery utilisation rates fell by 0.6 percentage point to 85.9% of total capacity.

Gasoline stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels, and distillate inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels,

Tonight, oil analysts await the Baker Hughes rig count. Last Friday, the total rig count fell by one to 760. The number of oil rigs in operation declined by two to 607.

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Charting the Markets: 24 February

FTSE 100 top heavy with Dow and S&P 500 also under pressure. EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY continue to be driven by dollar dominance. And gold unable to move higher, but oil and sugar post recoveries.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 February 2023

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 opens the week higher; ABF raises profit forecast

Later this week, a few big names of the FTSE 100 are due to report their full-year earnings, starting with Ocado tomorrow.

 Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 27 February 2023 

Indices overview

Equity markets fell overnight in the APAC region, following the lead of the US session on Friday. Last week was the worst weekly performance this year for US indices.

Is confidence in the economy gradually improving in the eurozone? This is what economists anticipate. The euro area's economic sentiment indicator is expected to increase for a fourth straight month in February, to 101, from 99.9 the previous month. Last month most of the sub-indicators of the index rose, but one showed continued signs of weakness: the construction sector.

In the US, the market awaits durable goods orders for the month of January. Economists forecast a 4% fall on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. The index seems to have become more volatile in recent months. In December it rose 5.6%, its biggest month-on-month rise since July 2020. Likewise, the 4% drop expected would be the largest monthly fall since April 2020. Durable goods orders will be released at 1.30pm.

A bit later at 3pm we expect pending home sales, also for January. A month-on-month gain of 1% is expected. In December the index posted its first positive variation in seven months. Two straight months of gains have occurred since mid-2020.

Earnings

Associated British Foods released a trading update for the first half (H1) of its fiscal year. The group says it expects adjusted operating profit to be broadly the same as the first six months of last year. This is an improvement on the group’s previous expectations of a lower operating profit. And the situation is set to continue to improve during the second half of the year, as inflation is becoming less volatile and some commodity costs have started to decline.

As for Primark, ABF expects H1 sales to rise 19% to £4.2 billion.

Watch out for Dechra Pharmaceuticals stock at the open. The group said this morning it now expects full-year (FY) underlying operating profit at the lower end of analyst forecasts, saying that trading patterns in the US at the start of this year have been unpredictable.

Later this week, a few big names on the FTSE 100 are due to report their full-year earnings, starting with Ocado tomorrow. Apart from the last three months where the stock has been trading sideways, 2022 has been another difficult year for Ocado. The share price has been divided by seven in a period of twenty months, from February 2021 to October 2022, reflecting the four profit warnings issued by the group last year alone.

Also, on the cards tomorrow are Abrdn, Travis Perkins and St James's Place, followed on Wednesday by Persimmon, Reckitt Benckiser and Aston Martin Lagonda.

Thursday is the busiest day of the week in terms of earnings in the UK, we'll get reports from LSE Group, Taylor Wimpey, Haleon - the newly spun off consumer division of GSK - and ITV.

After a massive drop of its share price this time last year followed by an almost continued slide to support level end of September, ITV has been recovering until now. Recently ITV reported a boom in viewership, lifted by the football World Cup and the launch of its new streaming platform, ITVX.

In the US, we expect Zoom Video Communications to report its earnings for the fourth quarter tonight after the US closing bell. The market anticipates earnings of 81 cents per share. This would be the lowest earnings per share (EPS) for the group since the second quarter (Q2) of 2020. Revenue is forecast to reach $1.1bn, broadly unchanged on the previous quarter, and up 2.6% on a yearly basis.

Zoom was one of those stocks that benefited immensely from the pandemic, then very quickly fell from grace, and is now getting closer and closer to its IPO price of nearly four years ago. A couple of weeks ago, Zoom announced it was parting with around 1,300 of its employees, that's about 15% of the group's workforce, joining the ever-growing club of tech companies having to adjust their staff count after having massively hired in the previous years.

Also this week in the US, tomorrow we'll get a quarterly report from HP, while Wednesday sees reports from Dollar Tree, Salesforce and Snowflake, followed on Thursday by Broadcom, Best Buy and Costco Wholesale.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed overnight that Pfizer is in early talks to acquire another drugmaker: Seagen. No price tag has been formally announced, although the WSJ says Seagen is valued at about $30bn.

It is not the first time Seagen has attracted a competitor. Last year, it was nearly acquired by Merck, in a deal worth around $40bn, but the two groups failed to reach a final agreement.

Commodities

Last Friday, the Baker Hughes survey showed a drop in total rig count to 753 from 760 the previous week, entirely due to the number of oil rigs in operations, down seven to 600.

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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Look Ahead 28/2/23: Japan & Australia retail sales; Canada Q4 GDP; Ocado, HP results

The global consumer dominates on Tuesday with retail sales data from Japan and Australia. Canada releases its latest growth numbers. Plus, watch out for what Ocado and HP say about jobs and the outlook for 2023.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 27 February 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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