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Charting the Markets: 15 March

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 mixed post Tuesday rally. Can the dollar regain lost ground across EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY? And gold and lumber rally, but oil drops back.

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 March 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 16/3/23: ECB rates; Aussie jobs; ROO earnings

As indices sink analysts are expecting central banks to be more accommodative on rates but it seems the ECB will continue to deliver 50-basis points across the board. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at EUR/GBP.

In Australia AUD/USD could move on the unemployment data, while we’ll be looking at the Nikkei 225 on Japan trade.

Earnings include FY numbers at Deliveroo (ROO), Rentokil, and Savills.

Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 March 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Fears of a full-blown banking crisis grow pushing VIX up to levels last seen in late October 2022

Indices: Europe expected to open up after SNB supports CSGN – likely to be a short reprieve. Indices look like they may be on their way down to the Oct 2022 lows

FX: Brief flight to safety as USD benefits, but EURUSD the cross to watch – will ECB continue to go for 50bps rate rise today OR will current mkt sensitivities prevail? It’s inflation vs recession/crisis

Equities: Earnings – ROO RTO SVS. Last night ADBE climbed 4.7% on earnings

Commods: Brent below $75 for 1st time since Dec 2021 on recession fears. Copper near lows for 2023. Gold holds near recent highs, retaining its haven status  

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Credit Suisse emergency lifeline brings some market relief, but for how long?

There was some relief on the equity market this morning, after we learned overnight that Credit Suisse will be able to borrow up to ₣50 billion from the Swiss Central Bank.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 March 2023 

Equity market overview

There was some relief on the equity market this morning, after we learned overnight that Credit Suisse will be able to borrow up to ₣50 billion from the Swiss Central Bank.

The Swiss lender's shares fell by as much as 30% yesterday, sparking a broader sell-off in European and US bank stocks. This latest announcement helped stem heavy selling on the Asian financial markets overnight.

In Europe, equity markets rebounded this morning after yesterday’s sell-off. The FTSE 100 closed 3.83% lower.

ECB

At 1.15pm, the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver its decision on rates. Consensus hasn't changed in recent days. The main refinancing rate is still expected to rise by 50-basis points (bp) to 3.5%. Fifty bp is also still on the cards for the deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate expected respectively at 3% and 3.75%.

But some economists believe that central banks are walking on thin ice, and Christine Lagarde could decide to be more prudent. If she chooses to continue to fight inflation and maintain the pace of rate increases, she runs the risk of worsening the situation in the banking sector, where turmoil could become a full-blown crisis.

The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse last week sent shock waves through global financial markets. Yesterday, the Credit Suisse tumble was seen as an indication that containing the spill-over could prove even more difficult.

Macroeconomic indicators

A few macroeconomic indicators were published overnight.

Japan's trade deficit widened to ¥897bn in February year-on-year (YoY) as imports rose more than exports. Machinery orders, an indicator of investment in Japan as well as a leading indicator of manufacturing production, rose 9.5% in January compared to December 2022.

In Australia, the unemployment rate fell more than expected to 3.5% in February, from 3.7% the previous month.

In the US, investors await building permits and housing starts for February, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for March and initial jobless claims. Economists anticipate 205,000 new claimants last week, after 211,000 the previous one.

Elsewhere on the equity market, Deliveroo confirmed it will deliver positive EBITDA this year after achieving a better-than-expected positive margin in the second half (H2) of 2022.

Savills believes that the first half (H1) of 2023 will be more difficult than H1 2022. The group posted an underlying pretax profit of £164 million, down 18%.

Expect Adobe to jump at the open later today in New York. The stock rose as much as 4.7% in extended trading last night after the company posted a better-than-expected set of earnings and raised its full-year (FY) targets. The maker of Photoshop posted earnings of $3.80 per share on revenue of $4.66bn. Adobe now expects fiscal 2023 profit per share target of between $15.30 and $15.60 versus $15.15-$15.45 forecast earlier.

As for the current quarter, Adobe sees second quarter (Q2) revenue of between $4.75nn-$4.78bn and profit per share of $3.75-$3.80, both largely above Wall Street expectations.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 17/3/23: US industrial production; oil rig count data

With corporates mostly out of the frame, certainly as far as scheduled news is concerned, the markets may be able to have a quieter end to the week.

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor pulls two pieces of data to watch: US industrial production numbers and the weekly Baker Hughes rig count.

Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 March 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

VIX coming off the biggest one day drop since May 2022 as established banks deliver support lines to troubled lenders with traders waiting to see if a full blown banking crisis has been averted 

Indices: Europe broadly holding Thursday’s gains, but expected to end the week down heavily. 

FX: USD down for 2nd day as economists now believe Fed 15% chance of NO rate move next week and 85% chance of 25bps

Equities: FRC receives $30bln lifeline from US banks to stave off collapse. FDX up 11% last night after raising 2023 targets  

Commods: Gold holding Thursday’s gains set for biggest weekly gain since November. Oil holds weekly lows on continued demand concerns around the increased potential for recession. Bitcoin breaks 25,240 resistance 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: European indices open higher after First Republic Bank rescue

US markets posted solid gains yesterday, after major US banks pledged to shore up First Republic Bank.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 March 2023 

US markets

US markets posted solid gains yesterday, after major US banks pledged to shore up First Republic Bank. Tech stocks benefitted the most, with the Nasdaq composite rising 2.5%.

Hours after Credit Suisse's announcement of a Swiss National Bank (SNB) emergency lifeline to up to CHF50 billion, large US banks injected $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank yesterday afternoon. Once confirmed, First Republic Bank reversed a 36% drop, and ended the session up 10. But expect the stock to drop at the open on Friday afternoon.

Shares fell 18% in after-market trading, after the bank said it would suspend its dividend. Is the banking sector facing a liquidity crisis? For the time being, policymakers are saying no, emphasising that the current turmoil is different to the 2008 financial crisis. That said, data yesterday showed the US banks sought record amounts of emergency liquidity from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in recent days. Banks have borrowed $164.8bn from Fed facilities in the week to 15 March.

Cental banks

Yesterday, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to stick with its own aggressive rate hike, raising its main refinancing rate by 50-basis points (bp) to 3.5%. Christine Lagarde couldn't say it more clearly: the ECB is not waning on its commitment to fighting inflation.

Next Wednesday, it will be the US Federal Reserve's turn to decide on rates. Like the ECB, economists believe the Fed will adopt a 'dual track' policy approach, distinguishing monetary policy from macro-prudential policy. US central bankers are continuing with their fight against inflation with a 25-basis point hike, which would bring the Fed's benchmark rate to a 4.75%-5% range.

Expectations of a 50-basis point increase are now gone. A week ago, Fed chair, Jerome Powell signalled he was ready to hike faster if data supported the need. Fed funds futures now show a probability of a pause of about 14%.

This afternoon at 12.30pm, industrial production is expected to rise by 0.2% in February month-on-month (MoM). A bit later at 2pm, Michigan consumer sentiment is forecast to remain unchanged at 67 in March.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity market, FedEx raised its fiscal 2023 profit forecast yesterday evening after the US closing bell, citing progress on its cost-cutting plan. The news sent shares up more that 11% in extended trading. Adjusted earnings came in at $3.41 per share in the third quarter (Q3). That's down $1.18 on Q3 a year ago, 65 cents higher than analysts' average estimate. Revenue fell 6% to $22.2 billion, missing Wall Street forecasts.

Despite weak market conditions, FedEx now forecasts adjusted profit of $14.60 to $15.20 per share for the full year, up from its previous projection of $13 to $14 and well above analysts' average estimate of $13.56.

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices are rising this morning, but are set to post their largest weekly loss this year.

Oil traders await the Baker Hughes oil rig count. Last week, the survey showed a drop in total rig counts to 746 from 749 the previous week. The number of oil rigs in operation fell by two to 590.

Gold remains near recent highs. The precious metal is set to post a third straight week of gains and is poised for its best week since mid-November.

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 17 March

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 recover, the latter even on track for a bullish weekly close. And gold and oil recover, but cotton prices drop.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 March 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected to open a touch lower after Wall St turned round. Initially rising on the light touch statement from the Fed, but that was washed away by Powell in the presser saying that he remains focused in on beating inflation 

FX: Todays currency to watch is GBP vs all-comers ahead of the BoE rate decision. Yesterday DXY fell to levels not seen since the beginning of Feb - seemingly not concerned about the later words from Powell on inflation  

Equities: COIN down 22% after it rec’d a Wells enforcement notice from SEC. Earnings today – WIX

Commods: Gold took heart from a falling dollar. Oil up for a 4th day today 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: BoE to follow Fed and raise rates?

As expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its rates by 25-basis points (bp) to a new target range of between 4.75% and 5%, the highest level since 2007.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 March 2023

Fed rate hike

As expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its rates by 25-basis points (bp) to a new target range of between 4.75% and 5%, the highest level since 2007.

The US dollar fell to a seven-week low as the US central bank sent the signal that it is nearly done with the most aggressive streak of rate rises in decades. Members of its policy-setting committee removed the oft-repeated warning that "ongoing increases" would be necessary. Instead, the committee said "some additional policy firming may be appropriate" to bring inflation back to the bank's 2% target.

Wall Street and the Nasdaq ended the session around 1.6% lower, while gold regained most of the ground it lost earlier in the week.

BoE

The Bank of England (BoE) meanwhile makes its decision on rates at 12pm today, but the picture has been complicated by Wednesday's unexpectedly strong inflation print. Markets now appear to be pricing in a quarter-point rise, a response to headline consumer prices rising at their fastest rate in 45 years.

One factor that will weigh in favour of rates staying the same is that some of the inflation was due to one-off factors such as the weather-related shortages of fresh fruit and vegetables. This led to empty shelves in UK supermarkets and helped drive up prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks at their fastest pace in more than a generation.

Also today, the market awaits US initial jobless claims and eurozone’s consumer confidence flash for the month of March.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity market, Wickes reported a 11.3% fall in pretax profit and said trading in the first 11 weeks of 2023 was in line with expectations.

In the US, Accenture and General Mills are due to report quarterly earnings.

Coinbase, an all-session stock on the IG platform, fell more than 22% after it was issued a Wells notice by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A Wells notice is often one of the final steps before the SEC formally issues charges, generally laying out the framework of what happens next.

CNBC says that "based on discussions with the staff, the potential enforcement actions would relate to aspects of the company's spot market, staking service Coinbase Earn, Coinbase Prime and Coinbase Wallet".

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices fell slightly after the Fed comments, but WTI and Brent remained above $70 and $75 respectively.

Prior to the Fed decision, oil prices rose as US crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week to their highest in nearly two years, according to the EIA. Crude inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels last week, their highest since May 2021. Expectations were for a 1.6-million-barrel drop.

Gasoline stocks fell by 6.4 million barrels, and distillate stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead 24/03/23: Japan CPI; PMIs; UK Consumer; JD Wetherspoon results

Growth swings back to the fore as traders watch out for inflation data out of Japan; PMIs; plus consumer confidence and retail sales numbers from Britain. British pub group JD Wetherspoon reports earnings.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 March 2023 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Small losses at the start expected in Europe although all mkts expected to end the week up

FX: USD holding the weekly lows. Japan CPI has taken JPY up against most currencies after Japan CPI data. GBPUSD holds recent gains after UK Gfk consumer confidence at 1yr high awaiting UK retail sales  

Equities: Earnings from JDW SMIN. TUI has announced a €1.8B capital increase

Commods: Gold nearing $2000 again after breaking briefly over that level twice this week, benefitting from weak USD. Base metals mostly higher. Oil holding the week’s gains 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 opens lower as UK consumer confidence shows persisting financial gloom

While consumer confidence rose, it showed no improvement in its gauge of personal finances.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 March 2023 

Consumer confidence, CPI

UK consumer confidence rose this month to its highest level since March last year.

GfK's consumer confidence index rose to -36 in March, in line with expectations, up from -38 in February. Still, the GfK survey showed no improvement in its gauges of personal finances.

In the Gfk statement, client strategy director Joe Staton underlined that "a small improvement in the overall index score this month masks continuing concerns among consumers about their personal financial situation. Wages are not keeping up with rising prices and the cost-of-living crisis remains a stark reality for most".

Last month UK consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly rose 10.4% year-on-year (YoY). UK retail sales rose more than expected in February, by 1.2% month-on-month (MoM). Economists anticipated a 0.2% gain. Compared to February 2022, the index declined 3.5%.

In Japan, the yen strengthened after the headline consumer price index rose by 3.3% in February, decelerating from January's 41-year high of 4.3%. The latest figure also marked the lowest print since last September.

Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, also decelerated sharply in February, showing a 3.1% increase. But the so called "core-core" index, which strips away food and energy costs, hit a four-decade high, rising 3.5% YoY, after 3.2% the previous month. This is the index the Bank of Japan (BoJ) takes into consideration when it makes its decision on rates. This index is now exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a fifth straight month.

PMI

It is PMI day today in Europe and the US, where S&P global manufacturing PMIs are expected to remain below 50 in March.

In Japan, manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month in March. The Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 48.6 in March, from a final 47.7 in the previous month.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity market, JD Wetherspoon returned to half-year (H1) profit. The British pub chain reported a profit of £4.6 million for the six months ended 31 December, compared with a loss in the same period a year ago.

Watch out for Smiths Group at the open. The industrial technology company posted a 27% jump in first-half profit and upgraded its forecast for the full-year (FY).

TUI announced the launch of a €1.8 billion capital increase for the repayment of state to strengthen its balance sheet. 328.9 million new ordinary shares will be offered at €5.55 a piece.

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices are little changed this Friday. Investors now await Baker Hughes data. Last week, total rig count rose to 754 from 746 on the previous one. The number of oil rigs in operation however decreased by one to 589.

Industrial metals have benefitted from the weakness of the dollar. Copper has risen to a three-week high. Aluminium and zinc also recorded gains.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 24 March

The FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 slide on renewed banking woes while EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD drop as the US dollar, gold appreciate due to flight-to-quality flows. Crude oil and copper tumble on recession fears.

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 March 2023

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage: 

Banks remain firmly front and centre after Friday’s sell-off around DBK

Indices: Europe expected to open a little stronger today. On Friday NDAQ closed at its highest since Aug 2022. Overnight Asia mostly down – NKY only major gainer

FX: USD little moved. Watching GBPUSD ahead of CBI distributive trades data. EUR/USD awaiting German Ifo. China industrial profits slumped 22.9% YoY as Covid recovery struggles 

Equities: US mulls over more support for banks. STAN has sold its stake in Jordan bank to Arab Jordan

Commods: Gold little changed. Oil down on continued recession fears 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 and Europe indices bounce back, amid continued assessment of banking turmoil

European equity markets bounced back on Monday after recording losses on Friday.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 March 2023 

Equity market overview

Equity markets in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Monday as banking sector concerns remained after Friday's sell offs in Deutsche Bank and First Republic Bank.

On Friday, US indices posted modest gains. European equity markets bounced back on Monday after recording losses on Friday. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation confirmed this morning the news broken by Bloomberg over the weekend that First Citizens Bank will acquire Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits and loans.

In China, industrial profits slumped 22.9% in the first two months of 2023 compared to the same period a year earlier, another indication that the factory sector in the country is struggling to recover from Covid-related disruptions. This latest data adds to a list of economic indicators that shows the uneven recovery China currently faces.

Factory output growth accelerated to 2.4% in January-February, retail sales swung back to growth in the sale period, but property investment is still on the decline despite government support.

Macroeconomic indicators

The market awaits a few major macroeconomic indicators in Germany this week, starting today at 09:00 with the Ifo business climate, expected to marginally fall to 91 in March, from 91.1 in February. It would be the first fall in five months.

Then on Wednesday, Gfk consumer confidence for the month of April is forecast to rise to -29 in April, after -30.5 the previous month. It will be followed on Thursday by consumer price index (CPI) for March. The market expects CPI growth to decelerate to 7.3% year-on-year (YoY), from 8.7% in April. The Harmonised CPI, the indicator favoured by the European Central Bank(ECB), is seen decelerating to 7.5% YoY.

Finally on Friday, retail sales are expected to bounce back month-on-month (MoM), up 0.5% in March after a 0.3% decline in February. But the year-on-year figure is expected to come at -5.6%.

Deutsche Bank share sell-off

Friday's Deutsche Bank share sell-off triggered reactions across the European banking sector. Barclays lost 4.2%, and French banks, Société Générale and BNP Paribas, shares fell over 6% and 5.3% respectively.

But some analysts consider the sell-off unjustified. If we compare Deutsche Bank to Credit Suisse, the former has posted profits for the last 10 quarters, and a net income of €5 billion in 2022. During the same period, Credit Suisse recorded a CHF7.3bn loss.

Also, Deutsche Bank has strong solvency and liquidity positions, while Credit Suisse has recently said it had to use its 'liquidity buffers'.

The currency market was also affected by Friday’s moment of panic. Currency traders sold the euro and British pound, favouring the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

Standard Chartered plans to sell its Jordanian business to Arab Jordan Investment Bank. The bank entered into an agreement with AJIB, subject to central bank approval.

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices have recovered most of Friday’s losses. Last week, the Baker Hughes total rig count rose by four to 758, entirely due to the number of oil rigs in operation, also up by four to 593.

Traders will also be attentive to the cocoa price in New York, which has set reached a new two-year high, and orange juice, which jumped more than 5% during Friday’s session.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 27 March

With the weekend having a restorative effect on market sentiment, the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 may be on track for a second positive week in a row.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 March 2023 

Meanwhile EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade in lower volatility and EUR/GBP continues to slide.

With the banking crisis abating, the price of gold drops alongside that of crude oil and copper.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 28/3/23: Australia retail sales; Ocado, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Micron results

Earnings take centre stage on Tuesday with results from Micron Technologies, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Ocado, and Bellway. Watch AUD/USD ahead of Australian retail sales data.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 27 March 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected mixed after gains yesterday on a rebound in DBK. Wall St mainly up although NDAQ saw a drop. Asia mixed HSI best performer as China mkts rebounded

FX: AUD climbed or held recent gains as retail sales came in marginally better than forecast, but economists now expecting a pause in Aussie rates next time. USD down for a second day

Equities: Earnings – OCDO BWY WG WGBA MU 

Commods: NY Cocoa at 3yr highs on tight supplies. Gold little moved. Oil holding yesterday’s marked gains 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 opens higher amid Ocado, Bellway earnings reports

Ocado's retail revenue rose 3.4% in the first quarter while Bellway's revenue rose to a record level, but reservation rate fell by 31.7%.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 March 2023

Equity market overview

Equity markets mostly rose yesterday, with only the Nasdaq ending the session lower. Fears of a banking crisis continued to ease, as First Citizens Bancshares agreed to acquire most of Silicon Valley Bank.

Overnight, indices traded higher in the APAC region. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lead gains as the country’s retail sales index rose 0.2% in February, compared to a revised 1.8% rise in January, beating median expectations of a 0.1% rise. Year-on-year (YoY), retail sales rose 6.4%.

With inflation at 7.4% in January in the country, this means that retail sales volumes are contracting against price increases. The market now awaits tomorrow's Monthly CPI indicator, forecast to ease to an annual rate of 7.1% in February.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chief, Philip Lowe has said the central bank was closer to pausing its rate increases. The central bank has already lifted rates by 350 basis points to an 11-year peak of 3.6%. The RBA decision is next Tuesday, 4 April.

Macroeconomics

A few macroeconomic indicators are expected this afternoon across the Atlantic.

At 1.30pm expect wholesale inventories and goods trade balance, followed half an hour later by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price and house price index, and at 3pm by the Conference board consumer confidence.

Earnings

Elsewhere on the equity markets Ocado's retail revenue rose 3.4% to £584 million in the first quarter (Q1). Average orders per week rose 3.6% and the average basket value came flat.

Bellway's revenue rose to a record level for the group, but reservation rate fell by 31.7%.

In the US, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) is scheduled to post earnings for the second quarter (Q2) before the market open. Analysts expect earnings of $1.10 per share, on revenue of just over $33.5 billion. But over and above earnings, investors want to know more about the future of Boots. Some of them, as well as some WBA board members, want the group to prioritise the US market, and move away from traditional retail to focus on US private health care. This would mean either a spinoff of Boots or even a straightforward sale.

It is not the first time WBA has wanted to part with its UK branch. It tried to sell Boots for the first time in January 2022. The price tag was then £7bn, but Walgreens Boots Alliance did not find a buyer and decided to call it off five months later.

Tonight, after the close of the US markets, Micron Technology, an all-sessions stock on the IG platform, is poised to post a loss of 66 cents per share. Revenue is expected to continue declining to $3.74bn. Three months ago sales fell 41% to just over $4bn.

The semiconductor industry is still suffering from distortion originating from the Covid-19 pandemic. Orders soared during 2020 and 2021 to supply a technology boom, pushing Micron and other chip makers to produce more. Now, in the context of fears of a recession, they are left with excess inventories and are being forced to wind down their capital investment budget.

Commodities

Oil prices are easing this morning after a rally yesterday that took WTI and Brent over $72 and $77 respectively.

Oil prices rose at their fastest pace in four months, due to a conjunction of news. The acquisition of SBV by First Citizens Bank triggered a wave of optimism across asset classes. Also, according to an annual forecast by a research unit of China National Petroleum, China's crude oil imports are expected to rise 6.2% in 2023, as the world's second largest economy continues on its road to recovery.

New York Cocoa's rally continues. This is partly due to tight supplies from Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer of cocoa, where port arrivals have been running behind last year's pace. However, that rally might not last, as there is no production issue here. Ivory Coast expects a good mid-crop, and its neighbour and the world's second-largest producer Ghana is poised to produce a larger crop this season.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Early European mkts holding onto yesterday’s gains, may open a little stronger. Overnight Asia mixed. HSI best performer as China authorities allow more freedom to stocks

FX: USD holds recent lows. EURUSD awaiting German consumer confidence 

Equities: BABA shares up 14% in HK as China brings about a break-up – Jack Ma seen back in the public eye. Earnings – NXT. Last night MU recovered a lot of lost ground after earnings

Commods: Oil rally on concerns over Iraqi exports. Gold little moved. Sugar climbs as harvests fail   

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: watching Next shares on FTSE 100 amid better-than-expected profits

Next reported a better-than-expected 5.7% rise in annual profit. Pretax profit rose to £870.4 million, higher than the £860 million anticipated.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 29 March 2023 09:01

Indices overview

US stocks ended Tuesday’s session lower, led by a nearly 0.45% decline in the Nasdaq as higher Treasury yields hit technology-related shares.

Overnight, indices recorded gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led gains, boosted by Alibaba’s performance. Alibaba shares soared as much at 16% after the company announced a major restructuring plan. Alibaba will re-organise into a holding company structure with six sub-divisions, each with their own CEOs and boards.

In Germany, Gfk consumer confidence rose to -29.5 in April, after 30.6 in March, a sixth straight month of improvement for an indicator that fell to an all-time low in October last year. Watch out for France's consumer confidence at 07.45.

In the US, at 3pm, the market awaits pending home sales for February, expected to fall by 2.3%. This would follow an unexpected rise 8.1% in January month-on-month (MoM), the biggest hike in two and a half years.

Corporate news

On the corporate front, Next reported a better-than-expected 5.7% rise in annual profit. Pretax profit rose to £870.4 million, higher than the £860mn anticipated. For 2023-24, the British clothes retailer kept its guidance for a 1.5% decline in full-price sales and profit of £795 million.

Micron shares were very volatile after the group published its second quarter (Q2) earnings and forecast for the current quarter. The chipmaker posted a loss of $1.91 per share, much wider that the 66 cents loss anticipated by the market. Revenue also fell short of expectations at $3.69 billion, down about 53% on the same quarter a year ago.

Micron expects a loss of $1.58 per share for the current year and a revenue of $3.70 billion plus or minus $200 million, a drop a about 60% which would be the deepest revenue drop in more than two decades. Still, this forecast matches Wall Street expectations.

Micron's President and CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, told analysts he was confident about the long-term. He expects the memory chip industry to hit a record in terms of market size in 2025, helped by the expansion of AI, which is boosting demand for data centres. A typical AI server has up to eight times the amount of DRAM a normal server has, and three times the amount of NAND.

Commodities

Oil prices continued to climb on Wednesday, rising for a third straight session after the latest API data showed big declines in stocks. This data adds to the recent news that lifted the prices by nearly $5 since the start of this week: first, there was the acquisition of most of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank that triggered a wave of optimism across asset classes including oil prices. Then there was a survey saying China's crude oil imports are also expected to rise 6.2% in 2023.

Also, a dispute involving Kurdish authorities halted around 400,000 barrels a day of oil exports from a port in Turkey. Concerns are growing among analysts, some considering the loss of Northern Iraq oil as "underestimated". Barclays told Reuters that any protracted outage of Kurdish exports until the end of the year would imply a $3 a barrel upside to the bank's $92 a barrel Brent price forecast for 2023.

Sugar prices also continue to rally in New York and London. On Monday, a senior State Government official told Reuters that Maharashtra, the top sugar-producing state in India, could produce nearly 16% less sugar than previously estimated. There is limited availability of sugar cane in the region, due to unfavourable weather, forcing mills to close.

South China experienced similar weather conditions over the past two weeks: extreme rainfall and temperatures above normal prompted a decline in sugar yield in the region.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage: 

Indices: Most indices at 2wk high as bank fears fade. Europe expected to start with gains. Miners gain as hopes are China will drive another cmdty boom 

FX: Little move overall. EURUSD awaiting German CPI & US weekly jobless claims  

Equities: Earnings – MOON HMB CZOO. Meanwhile MS says BABA break-up could double the value of the single company 

Commods: Gold little move. Oil consolidating at recent prices. BTC new 8mth high. Lumber close to breaking long term support 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: ASX 200 outperforms APAC indices thanks to mining stocks

European and US equity markets ended Wednesday’s session higher, but overnight only the Australian S&P/ASX 200 recorded gains, with the help of mining stocks.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 March 2023

Indices overview

European and US equity markets ended Wednesday’s session higher, but overnight only the Australian S&P/ASX 200 recorded gains, with the help of mining stocks.

In an interview with CNBC, Fortescue Metals CEO Andrew Forrest said he thinks that China's economic recovery will lead to a demand in commodities stronger than during the period that followed the 2008 crisis. At the time, China avoided recession with a stimulus programme that supported infrastructure development, which boosted demand for commodities. Since 2008, China's economy has grown to become the world's second largest economy.

Macroeconomic indicators

Calm prevails on the currency market ahead of a few macroeconomic indicators expected later today.

At 1pm, the market awaits the latest CPI data from Germany. Economists expect the index to rise 7.3% in March year-on-year (YoY), decelerating from an 8.7% growth in February. The EU harmonised CPI, a reading favoured by Christine Lagarde's team, is forecast at 7.5% YoY, after 9.3% the previous month.

In the US, expect the final reading of US GDP in the first quarter. Economists anticipate the US economy to have expanded 2.7% during that period.

Equities

Yesterday Alibaba announced a major restructuring plan that would transform the group into a holding company and that its activities would be divided in six sub-divisions, each with their own CEOs and boards. Alibaba shares soared as much at 16% on the news.

Overnight, Alibaba group CEO Daniel Zhang told investors that the breakup will allow its units to become more agile and eventually list on their own. On the same call, Alibaba CFO Toby Xu said the group would "continue to evaluate the strategic importance of these companies" and "decide whether or not to continue to retain control", adding that "each company can pursue financing and IPO as and when they are ready".

When asked about the timeline for the listings, Xu said the changes would come into effect immediately. This plan makes sense to analysts, who believe Alibaba is currently undervalued as a conglomerate.

Even Morgan Stanley thinks the stock value could double. A breakup would allow investors to value each business division independently. Alibaba shareholders would also be better protected from regulatory pressures. Penalties levied on one division would in theory not affect the operations of another.

Since Chinese authorities started their crackdown on the country's tech sector, Alibaba's market valuation fell from $800 billion to $260bn.

Commodities

US crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week according to the latest EIA inventories. Crude inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels as refineries restarted operations after maintenance.

Refinery operations hit their highest so far this year, up by 1.7 percentage points to 90.3% of total capacity.

Gasoline stocks fell by 2.9 million barrels, and distillate stockpiles rose by 300,000 barrels.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 30 March

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 post yet more gains. EUR/USD pauses while GBP/USD and AUD/NZD rise further ahead of final US Q4 GDP data. And WTI, gold and NY cotton stall ahead of final US Q4 GDP.

 Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 30 March 2023 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

 

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead 31/3/23: China manufacturing; UK GDP; France CPI and German retail sales

Key data points from the world’s major economies including China, France and Britain give investors more clues on the pace of the global recovery.

 

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 March 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: European mkts continue with upside, but looking to end the month lower. On a quarterly basis Europe mostly seeing small gains. On Wall St NDAQ breaks to near 8mth highs 

FX: USD weakness persists. GBPUSD 2mth high, awaiting final 4Q GDP data to confirm UK avoided recession. EURUSD awaiting German jobs and French CPI 

Equities: NFLX consolidates film units as it cuts movie output

Commods: Gold holds Thursday’s gains. Oil close to breaking 2wk highs. Orange Juice record high, Cocoa 3yr high, NY Sugar new 6yr high London sugar 10 ½ yr high all seem to be suffering from crop failures (climate change?)  

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: UK economy officially avoids recession, but housing market decline worsens

The UK economy grew 0.1% in Q4 compared to the previous quarter, while the Nationwide house price index fell 3.1% in March year-on-year.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023 

Indices overview

European equity markets are hesitant this Friday, but are nonetheless poised to post their second weekly gains in a row.

Overnight in Asia, Japan stocks were the best performers, boosted by a set of macroeconomic indicators. Industrial production rose 4.5% in February compared to January. Leading the rise was car production, up 15.4%, as the shortage in semiconductors eased last month. Retail sales increased by 6.6% in February from a year earlier, logging a 12th straight month of gains, and above the median market forecast for a 5.8% gain.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should avoid a premature exit from monetary easing and outline conditions for raising its negative interest rate in order to improve its communication.

In China, manufacturing activity expanded in March for a third straight month, although at a slower pace than in February. The official NBS manufacturing PMI came in at 51.9, after 52.6 in February, exceeding expectations of 51.5. The services sector was stronger, with activity expanding at the fastest pace in nearly 12 years. Non-manufacturing PMI jumped to 58.2 versus 56.3 in February.

In the UK, the economy grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter (Q4) compared to the previous quarter, according to the final estimate published at 07:00. The Nationwide house price index fell 3.1% in March year-on-year (YoY).

In Germany, retail sales decreased by 1.3% in February month-on-month (MoM), more than the 0.5% decline expected. A bit later this morning, the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 5.5%.

Yesterday Germany's consumer price index (CPI) came higher than expected. Even though CPI in the EU's largest economy decelerated to 7.8% in March YoY from 9.3% the previous month, it was nonetheless higher than the 7.5% anticipated by the market. This sent EUR/USD higher.

France also announced a higher than anticipated CPI for March at 5.6%.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity market, Netflix is restructuring its film group to make fewer movies each year and centralise decision-making.

Bloomberg reports that the group will combine units that produce small and midsize pictures, a change that will result in a handful of layoffs and the departure of two of its most experienced executives.

Commodities

Oil prices are little changed this Friday. Reuters, citing five delegates, revealed earlier that OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal to cut oil output. The organisation is set to meet virtually on Monday.

Last November, OPEC+ reduced its output target by two million barrels per day. The same reduction is likely to apply for the whole of 2023, according to Saudi Arabia's Energy minister.

On the soft commodities market, sugar's rally continues, now at its highest since July 2021. Earlier this week we were talking about how sugar production in the Indian state of Maharashtra, Thailand and Southern China, three of the world's top four producers, was in decline due to unfavourable weather conditions. Now, the European Union says it expects a decline in production of sugar beet this season, and a fall in the planted area for the 2023/24 season. This could lead to a rise in imports.

Also rising, New York cocoa now trades at a two-year high, continuing a rally that started in mid-March, leading to gains of more than 11%, so far. The rise is partly due to tight supplies from the world's largest cocoa producer Ivory coast, where port arrivals have been running behind last year's pace.

As we said here earlier this week, this is not a production issue. In fact, Ivory Coast expects a good mid-crop, and Ghana, the world's second largest producer, is poised to produce a larger crop this season.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 31 March

The FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 surge higher on a positive outlook as EUR/USD, GBP/USD pause their ascents while USD/JPY continues to rise as the greenback appreciates.

WTI remains capped by resistance, gold forms a technical triangle as Robusta coffee trades near six-month highs.

 

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: European markets expected to open near recent highs – a new record high for the CAC40

FX: USD down ahead of US CPI data today and Fed Minutes from last meeting. BoC rates expected to remain on hold for second mtg in a row 

Equities: While not listed Musk says Twitter is near break-even as advertisers have returned. DBK exits Russia IT deal  

Commods: Gold up for 2nd day. Oil bumping up against 10wk highs. Sugar 11yr high on tight supplies and Coffee Robusta at 10mth high on similar supply issues