News and Trade Ideas (Indices)

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 remain bid despite stronger-than-expected UK inflation data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as UK CPI hits 11.1%, its highest reading since 1981.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Consumer price index Inflation Retail Price Index S&P 500 DAX

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 November 2022

FTSE 100 holds at 200-day SMA despite stronger-than-expected inflation data

The FTSE 100 slipped back towards the 7,300 mark but continues to be supported by its uptrend channel support line at 7,288 amid stronger-than-expected UK inflation data which showed its highest reading since 1981.

The year-on-year Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for October came in at a stronger-than-expected 11.1% versus a forecast 10.7% and 10.1% in September with core CPI hitting 6.5% versus an expected 6.4% and the Retail Price Index (RPI) rising to 14.2% versus an expected 13.6% and 12.6% in September.

Minor support below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,323 and the uptrend channel support line at 7,288 can be found at last week’s low at 7,243. While remaining above this level, the October-to-November uptrend remains intact, though.

Since last week’s peak at 7,429 hasn’t been duplicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which instead made a lower high, thus forming what is called negative divergence, it is likely that upside momentum will continue to diminish over the coming days. It also points to a possible correction lower soon being seen.

A slip through last week’s low at 7,243 would push the early November high at 7,221 and 8 September low at 7,174 to the fore. Further down lies strong support at 7,131 to 7,104, made up of the August low, early October high and 55-day SMA.

Resistance can be seen at last week’s high at 7,429, a rise above which would lead to the August and September peaks at 7,515 to 7,577 being in sight.

Source: ProRealTime

The DAX 40 continues to advance post better-than-expected ZEW data

On Tuesday the DAX 40 briefly dipped to 14,125 but ended the day in positive territory as the ZEW Economic Sentiment for November came in at -38.7 versus an expected -52 and -59.7 in October.

While 14,125 underpins, the index remains on track to overcome Tuesday’s high at 14,442 in which case the April high at 14,599 will be in focus. Further up the June peak can be spotted at 14,712 and the March high at 14,927.

Below Tuesday’s low at 14,125 lies the minor psychological 14,000 mark and the August high at 13,976.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 remains bid ahead of US retail sales data

The S&P 500, despite losing a lot of last week’s strong upside momentum, has so far risen to 4,042, close to the 200-day SMA at 4,061, which remains in focus ahead of Wednesday’s US retail sales data release for October which is expected to come in at 1.0% versus 0.0% in September.

The index will technically remain immediately bid while it stays above Tuesday’s 3,952 intraday low on a daily chart closing basis.

Support below this level can be spotted between the 21 September, late October and early November highs at 3,918 to 3,913.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking to move higher

Indices have stabilised in recent days, and a fresh move higher may be developing.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 November 2022 

FTSE 100 builds a base above 200-day MA

The index continues to hold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), providing hope that this consolidation can resolve into a move higher.

Recent gains have been capped below 7400, so this will need to be broken to the upside in order to open the way to previous highs around 7500 and 7580.

For the moment, the index is using the 200-day SMA as support, building a potential springboard for further upside.

A close below the 200-day and below 7300 would suggest that a move back towards the 100-day SMA (currently 7228) could result.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX looks to push higher

The consolidation of the past three days appears to be resolving into another move up, with the price having found support around 14,200.

Should the index continue to push higher, then the 14,650 level comes into view, the high from the beginning of June. This would put the index at a five-month high and further suggest that the 2022 downtrend at least has run its course.

This week, the index has shown reluctance to drop back below 14,100, but a drop below would put 14,000 back into view as possible support.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 holds firm above support

As with the FTSE 100 and the DAX, this index has found support over recent days, around 3960.

A drop back below 3880 would suggest a move back towards trendline support from the October low, towards 3900.

For the moment the price has shown little willingness to head lower, so a move above 4000 bring the 200-day SMA (currently 4057) into view.

From here, the next level to watch would be the 4127 area, last seen as a lower high in September and support in late August.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow remain sidelined

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow amid hopes of China reopening.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Dow Jones Industrial Average FTSE 100 DAX China United Kingdom

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 November 2022 

FTSE 100 remains above 200-day SMA post UK autumn statement

The FTSE 100 dropped back towards the 7,300 zone but continues to be supported by its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,321 post the UK autumn budget which largely didn’t deviate from what had been widely expected.

The fact that the windfall tax on electricity generators and energy companies wouldn't be as high as some have feared helped the index recover, as did Friday morning’s UK October month-on-month retail sales data which came in at a better-than-expected 0.6% versus a revised -1.5% in September.

GfK Consumer confidence also improved with a better-than-expected -44 versus a forecast -46 and -47 in the month prior.

Minor support below the 200-day SMA, the uptrend channel support line and Thursday’s low at 7,321 to 7,293 can be found at last week’s low at 7,242. While the index stays above this level, the October-to-November uptrend remains intact, though.

A slip through last week’s low at 7,242 would put the early November high at 7,221 and 8 September low at 7,174 on the map. Further down sits strong support at 7,131 to 7,104, consisting of the August low, early October high and 55-day SMA.

Resistance can be seen at last week’s high at 7,429, a rise above which would lead to the August and September peaks at 7,515 to 7,577 being eyed.

Source: ProRealTime

The DAX 40 continues to range trade amid China’s reopening prospects

The DAX 40 continues to be sidelined in a tight trading range above Tuesday’s 14,125 low and its November uptrend line amid of hopes that China will soon reopen.

While 14,125 underpins, the index is expected to better Tuesday’s high at 14,442, in which case the April high at 14,599 will be in focus. Further up the June peak can be seen at 14,712 and the March high at 14,927.

Below Tuesday’s low at 14,125 lies the minor psychological 14,000 mark and the August high at 13,976.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s (Dow) minor retracement lower in the course of this week has so far taken it to Thursday’s low at 33,146 amid the longest period of low volatility seen since September 2021.

Since the indices’ recent high at 34,010 hasn’t been confirmed by a higher high on the daily RSI, negative divergence can be made out on the daily chart. It often acts as an early warning signal of either a trend correction, as is currently being seen, or a reversal.

Failure, meaning a daily chart close below 34,010 would engage the early November high at 33,075, a slip through which could lead to the 10 November low and the 200-day SMA at 32,425 to 32,420 being revisited.

Were the current consolidation phase to be followed by further upside, however, and the recent high at 34,010 be exceeded, the August peak at 34,285 would be in the picture.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 open the week in lacklustre form

Rising Covid cases in China cast a pall over indices in opening trading, while US futures were lower too.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 November 2022 

FTSE 100 still stuck below 7400

The index has faltered in early trading, remaining stuck below 7400.

The bounce from the lows of October has carried the index back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), so for now the weakness might not be too concerning.

A reversal below 7300 might suggest a further push back towards 7150 support.

Additional gains above 7400 would target trendline resistance from the March highs, towards 7500.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX down in early trading

Small losses in early trading have reversed some of Friday’s gains, although the bounce is firmly intact.

A deeper retracement may develop if the price drops back below 14,130. Below this the 200-day SMA would come into play as possible support, with the August high at 13,964 also an area where support may be found, having previously been resistance.

Further gains in the medium term would see the index target 14634, the early June high.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges lower

A drift lower here from the high earlier in the month has yet to turn into a more serious pullback.

The gentle declines seen over the past week are heading towards the 100-day SMA (3913). Below this the 50-day SMA at 3787 comes into play.

A revival above 4000 would then see the index push towards the 200-day SMA (currently 4052). Above this the September highs at 4155 are the next target.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq turn lower, but bulls may not be done quite yet

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq show signs of potential weakness, although the bullish recovery phase may not be over quite yet.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 November 2022 

FTSE 100 struggles to break resistance within recovery phase

The FTSE 100 has been pushing higher over the course of the past month, with the index attempting to reach a fresh two-month high once again today.

Thus far that break up through 7429 has not been forthcoming, with a move up through that level required to signal the push into another leg higher.

From the wider perspective, it is clear that we could turn lower before too long, resuming the pattern of lower highs evident throughout the year. However, we are yet to find out whether this current upward move is complete or set to resume.

A break back below the 7292 support level would provide a signal that the bears are coming back into play once again.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX starts to weaken from resistance

The DAX has enjoyed a dramatic rise over the course of October and November, with the index pushing into a five-month high in the process.

While the index has been pushing up into the 14442 high established a week ago, we are seeing price start to turn lower today.

Whether this failure to regain the previous high signals the beginning of a bearish pullback or simply an extension of the recent consolidation phase remains to be seen.

As such, a signal on where go from here comes with a push up through 14442 or below 14124.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq on the slide after recent recovery

The Nasdaq has been leading the move lower for US indices, with the tech-focused index expected to be at the forefront of both bullish and bearish phases for markets.

The recent recovery phase has taken the Nasdaq up through the 11668 resistance level, signalling a wider retracement of the 13722-10432 move coming into play.

As such, there is still a chance that we see price push higher for a deeper retracement before long. However, whether we see such a move or not, it is likely that this recovery phase is a precursor to another move lower for the index.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq on the rise, as the recovery phase looks to continue

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq turn upwards once more, bringing expectations of further strength.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Market sentiment DAX FTSE 100 Nasdaq Risk

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 November 2022 

FTSE 100 surges higher towards resistance

The FTSE 100 managed to push sharply higher once again yesterday, with the index rising into a fresh two-month high.

Set within a wider trend of lower highs, this rebound looks likely to represent a retracement before we head lower once again. However, the higher we get, the more likely we are to see a bullish breakout through the 7577 swing-high.

Nonetheless, for now we are looking for a potential reaction from the descending trendline (provisional) drawn from the June and August peaks.

Given the risk that this current rise continues, another method to lessen the risk involved in looking for short positions here would be to wait for a breakdown through 7292 as signal that the short-term pattern of higher lows has broken down.

Until that happens, there is still clearly strong upside momentum playing out here.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX reaches five-month high

The DAX has managed to push tentatively through the recent high of 14442, bringing about a fresh five-month high for the index.

Coming off the back of a period of consolidation below last Tuesday's high, the break through resistance does signal the potential for another bout of gains to build on the recent two months of gains.

Keep an eye out for German PMI data released at 08.30 as a source of volatility. However, for now, it looks likely that we will see further upside to follow through on this recent break.

A move back below the 14124 swing-low would be required to signal a potential downside move coming into play.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq turns upwards to signal potential year-end rally

The Nasdaq has started to tentatively turn upwards once again, following a week of losses that took some of the heat off the index.

This index is likely to be the main casualty when market sentiment does take the turn once again, but it can also benefit the index with a substantial upside move when markets take a more constructive view.

For the DAX, any short-term gains do look to represent a retracement of the 13722-10432 until we see that 13722 level taken out. However, for the near-term, there is a distinct possibility that we see price rise into a deeper upward retracement.

A push through the 11808 level would bring a signal that we are set for another upward phase here.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 show no sign of turning lower

Indices have held their ground this week, giving hope of a continuation of the rally into the end of the month.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 November 2022 

FTSE 100 reaches two-month high

The index came within a whisker of 7500 yesterday, hitting its highest level since early September.

So far there has been so sign of a reversal in the move higher from the October lows, or even a consolidation after a 300 point move since early November.

If a small retracement does happen then the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) might be a natural destination, as well as the 7300 area.

A break above 7500 would see the price head towards the August highs around 7600.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX holds firm

Similarly this index has yet to see any significant downward move, with small dips this week being met with buying.

For the moment the buyers hold sway, and additional upside towards 14,700 and the June high seems to beckon.

In the event of a pullback, the index may well head back to the 200-day SMA (currently 13,548).

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges close to 200-day MA

US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving, but the index has managed to return to the 200-day SMA, continuing its rebound from the October lows.

The September high of 4127, and then the August high at 4300 (also the last time the price reached the 200-day SMA), are the next levels to watch on the upside.

So far sellers have been unable to keep control over the index except for brief periods last week. A dip towards 3900 was met by buying, so any move down in the short-term needs to breach this level.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 remain bid in low volatility trading

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 as China’s Covid-19 cases hit a record high.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 November 2022 

FTSE 100 remains bid but is losing upside momentum

Earlier this week the FTSE 100 practically reached the minor psychological 7,500 mark which remains in focus as UK car production returns to growth.

It rose 7.4% in October from a year ago, though production figures remain considerably below pre-pandemic levels as global chip shortages continue to affect British car manufacturers.

While Thursday’s low at 7,441 underpins, the August and September peaks at 7,515 to 7,577 continue to be eyed but may, at least short-term, provoke failure next week.

Since US equity markets only trade for a half day over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, European markets are expected to also trade in low volumes on what is known as “Black Friday.”

A slip through 7,441 today would engage the 7,429 11 November peak below which sits the 4 November high at 7,378. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,318.

While remaining above it, the FTSE 100 is considered to be bullish, it being the only major European equity index which trades close to or in positive territory.

Source: ProRealTime

The DAX 40 continues to rise despite surging Covid-19 cases in China

The DAX 40 continues its steep October-to-November ascent of so far over 20% despite surging Covid-19 cases to a new record high and related lockdowns in China hurting local sentiment and global recession fears dampening demand.

The index is approaching its April high at 14,599 which may act as short-term resistance on Friday. If not, the June peak at 14,712 and the March high at 14,927 should be eyed next.

Slips should find support at the 14,442 mid-November high amid an increasingly overbought index which next week may give back some of its recent gains as US players return from their extended Thanksgiving weekend.

Source: ProRealTime

The CAC 40 remains on track to reach the 6,759 late April high despite recession fears

The French CAC 40 index continues to advance, albeit in a more gradual fashion than in October, despite lurking global recession fears and European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers agreeing in their October meeting accounts to stick to monetary tightening, even if this were to lead to a shallow recession.

In case of a prolonged and deep recession, which would likely curb inflation to a large extent, ECB policymakers might consider pausing raising rates, however.

For now, the CAC 40 remains on track to reach its 6,759 late April high, having so far risen by close to 20% since early October. The late April high at 6,759, together with the late March high at 6,831, offers a solid resistance area which may well cap the CAC 40’s advance in the days ahead.

Immediate support can be spotted at the 6,686 mid-November high on Friday with more important support being found at the 6,626 August peak.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 drop back in early trading

Indices are watching China nervously, as news of the demonstrations against Covid restrictions hits risk appetite.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 November 2022 

FTSE 100 remains close to 7500

The index has slipped back in early trading, but it remains within easy distance of 7500.

After the gains from the October low, some weakness towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7317 would not be surprising, but a move below the 200-day might signal that the bounce will be unwound further.

A reversal above 7500 would see the price push on above the September high, and this would bring the 7570 zone into play, the highs from early August.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX drops back on China worries

Some early losses have seen the index drop back from its highs of last week, but the overall bounce is intact.

Recent weakness earlier in November found support around 14,130, so a move below this would indicate the potential for some more weakness down towards the 200-day SMA (13,542).

Above last week’s highs of 14,575, the next major level to watch is the early June high around 14,660, and then towards 14,875, last seen in early April.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges lower

Last week saw the index reach the 200-day SMA for the first time since mid-August. However early trading has seen the price drop back, which might see a test of the 100-day SMA (3921).

It would take a move below 3800 to suggest that the downward move of the year so far has reasserted itself.

A rally above 4042 and the 200-day SMA would then put the September highs at 4155 into view, followed by the August highs at 4325.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq rise after Spain CPI figure

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq start to strengthen after a surprise rise in the Spanish CPI figure.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 29 November 2022 

FTSE 100 pushes onwards towards key resistance

The FTSE 100 has been showing some signs of indecision of late, with the index weakening in the face of Chinese concerns yesterday.

However, we are seeing no such concerns today, with the index kicking off proceedings firmly in the green. That move higher has largely come down to a Spanish CPI reading which unexpectedly fell from 7.3% to 6.8%, lifting hopes that we could see a similar move from tomorrows eurozone CPI figure. This latest leg higher does push the index ever closer to the 7577 resistance level.

Ultimately, while there is a good chance we see markets roll over once again at some point down the line, it makes sense to await a break from this intraday uptrend to signal the end of this recovery phase.

As such, further upside is likely unless we see price fall back below the 7292 swing-low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX starts to recover after yesterday’s selloff

The DAX has been heading sharply higher over the course of the past two months, with price hitting a fresh five-month high on Friday.

Yesterday saw a decent pullback towards the 14124 swing-low support level, but we are seeing price attempt to continue the recent trend of higher lows seen on the shorter intraday timeframes. As such, further upside looks likely unless we see price fall back below the 14124.

Once again, keep a close eye out for tomorrows eurozone inflation data, with any reversal in that wider regional CPI figure likely to bring the index sharply higher.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq consolidates after latest rebound

The Nasdaq has been struggling to maintain its upward trajectory following a rebound into the 12,000 region earlier in the month.

The current 11490-11909 consolidation range looks to be key in determining where we go from here, with a break through either level bringing a greater degree of confidence in the directional bias.

From a wider perspective, the rebound we have seen over the course of November does look to be a retracement of the wider selloff from 13722.

As such, near-term upside looks likely to fade once again down the line, although the timing of that remains the key aspect we are attempting to gauge.

Source: ProRealTime

 

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 and CAC 40 remain bid while DAX 40 lags

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 as China’s Covid-19 cases remain high.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Inflation CAC 40 FTSE 100 DAX Consumer price index

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 30 November 2022 

FTSE 100 trades at three-month highs

The FTSE 100 has managed to rise to a three-month high close to the 7,577 August peak amid ongoing risk-on sentiment due to lower-than-expected European inflation data in countries like Spain.

Short-term the FTSE 100 is likely to be capped by the August high and may thus slip back to the 7,515 September peak and also towards the minor psychological 7,500 mark, slightly below which most of last week’s highs were formed.

While Monday’s low at 7,421 underpins, the medium-term October-to-November uptrend remains intact. Above the 7,577 August high lies major resistance between 7,621 and 7,671, made up of the April-to-June highs. This area is expected to cap into year end, if reached.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 consolidation ongoing amid European inflation data

The DAX 40 is taking a breather, following its steep around 23% October-to-November advance amid stubbornly high Covid-19 cases in China and lower-than-expected inflation at 6.8% year-on-year in Spain and steady inflation at 6.2% year-on-year in France.

Towards the end of last week, the index ran out of steam slightly below its April high at 14,599 and has since slid back to Monday’s low at 14,325, close to the October-to-November support line at 14,322.

Slips below 14,322 should find support around the mid-November lows at 14,150 to 14,125.

In case of a currently unexpected rise to above the 14,584 to 14,599 resistance zone being witnessed, the June peak at 14,712 and the March high at 14,927 would be eyed.

Source: ProRealTime

CAC 40 remains on track to reach 6,759 late April high

The French CAC 40 index continues to advance, albeit in a more gradual fashion than in October, as the country’s inflation rate remains unchanged at its 1985 highs of 6.2% in November and market participants await Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data and Jerome Powell’s speech after hours in Europe.

Provided that the CAC 40 stays above this week’s low at 6,641, the 6,759 late April high remains within reach, despite the index so far having already risen by around 20% since early October.

The late April high at 6,759, together with the late March high at 6,831, offers a solid resistance area which may well cap the CAC 40’s advance in the days ahead, though.

Immediate support can be spotted between the 6,686 mid-November high and the 6,626 August peak.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq surge after Powell comments

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq push higher as Powell comments lift market sentiment.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Federal Reserve DAX Jerome Powell Nasdaq FTSE 100

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 December 2022 

FTSE 100 surges into fresh five-month high

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed yet another leg higher following comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Jerome Powell that saw a major risk-on tone permeate throughout global markets.

For the FTSE 100 this pushed the index up through the key 7577 resistance level established in August, bringing us into levels not seen since June.

It is worth noting that we now trade within a zone of resistance which encompasses a number of major peaks from earlier in the year. With 7577 out the way, the 7647 and 7690 levels represent the next major points of resistance up ahead. With price turning lower, there is a chance we start to retrace some of yesterday’s gains.

In any case, we would need to see a decline through 7420 to mark the beginning of a bearish reversal. Until then, near-term downside is likely to be bought into.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX struggles to break through 14584 resistance

The DAX has pushed up into the key 14584 resistance level yesterday, with the index attempting to break from the consolidation phase that has dominated the past three weeks.

While the recent recovery does signal a likely bullish exit from this phase, a push through resistance would be taken as a signal that the bulls are set to take charge once again.

With German retail sales tumbling to a six-month low this morning, we can see that there are clear concerns over the economy as rates rise and China remains constrained.

Nonetheless, the bulls are expected to remain in charge unless price falls back below the 14124.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq surges back towards November high

The Nasdaq has enjoyed a major move higher following Jerome Powell’s indication that the Federal Reserve plans to slow their pace of rate hikes in the face of falling inflation.

To a large extent this makes sense, as they seek to gain clarity over the implications of the recent tightening phase which should subsequently allow for a more accurate terminal rate. However, it is worthwhile noting that a slower pace of tightening is very different from an adjustment to the terminal rate.

Nonetheless, markets have adjusted to signal a lower peak of 4.75%-5%. This has helped lift the Nasdaq back towards the 12084 peak from mid-November.

Ultimately, this rebound does look to represent a potential retracement of the 13722-10432 sell-off. As such, this rebound does look likely to extend if we see price push up through the 12084 resistance level here.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 give back gains ahead of US unemployment data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 ahead of US non-farm payrolls data.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Unemployment United States Stock market index CAC 40 DAX

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 December 2022 

FTSE 100 comes off its near six-month high

The FTSE 100 is seen coming off its near six-month high at 7,618 ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) data as traders who had bought equities over the past month or so take some of their profits off the table within a key resistance area. It consists of the 7,621 to 7,671 April-to-June highs.

Short-term a fall towards the 7,515 September peak and the minor psychological 7,500 mark may thus ensue with the area around the 7,577 August peak acting as potential minor resistance.

While Monday’s low at 7,421 underpins, however, the medium-term October-to-December uptrend remains valid.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 consolidation ongoing ahead of US unemployment data

The DAX 40 is taking a breather, following its steep, over 23%, October-to-November bear market rally amid hopes that China might loosen its strict Covid-19 policy and as market participants await US unemployment data which could influence the rates outlook.

On Thursday the DAX 40 gave back some of its recent strong gains with it revisiting the October-to-December uptrend line at 14,454 which is expected to soon give way since this week’s near six-month high at 14,606 hasn’t been confirmed by the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI).

This means that negative divergence can be seen on the daily chart and points to a likely retracement lower soon taking shape. This isn’t expected to lead to a large decline in December, however, since the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Put/Call ratio has quickly fallen to low levels under 40% over the past few weeks, showing that far more puts than calls have been bought over that time.

When this happens, equity markets tend not to fall very far and, conversely, have a high probability of rallying in the near future. Furthermore, since 1950 there have been three times as many positive as negative Decembers for markets such as the S&P 500 which European equity indices are influenced by to a large extent.

Only a slip through this week’s low at 14,325 would trigger a minor top formation in the DAX 40 and put the mid-November lows at 14,150 to 14,125 back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

The CAC 40 falters at key resistance ahead of US unemployment data

The French CAC 40 index’s advance of over 20% has taken it to an eight-month high before being capped by the area seen between the late April high at 6,759 and the late March high at 6,831 which represent key resistance ahead of the publication of US unemployment data.

The two-month support line at 6,730 is thus being revisited with a slip back towards the August peak and this week’s low at 6,641 to 6,626 now being on the cards, especially since negative divergence can be spotted on the daily chart.

While the index remains above this week’s low at 6,641, however, the October-to-December uptrend remains valid.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 cautious at start of a new week

It appears the limited reopening moves in China have not been enough to push European indices and US futures higher in early trading.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 05 December 2022 

FTSE 100 stalled for now

The US job report on Friday saw the index drop back towards 7500, but it then recovered to head back in the direction of 7600.

On the upside 7620 and then 7680 become the next levels to watch, as the index continues to push into positive territory for the year. This comes hard on the heels of a huge rebound from the October lows, that has seen the index gain more than 800 points.

There have only been short-term, intraday, dips in the current run higher, but a move below 7400 might indicate that a deeper retracement was beginning.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX holds near recent highs

The index continues to hover around the highs it reached in late November, resisting any move to the downside for now. 14,600 marks the highs from early June, so some resistance around this level was to be expected.

As with the FTSE 100, the index has yet to begin a sustained move lower, although a drop below 14,130 would perhaps signal that one is in progress.

A recovery above 14,600 would open the way to the early April high at 14,840, and then above this 15,047 and 15,278 come into view.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 looking for direction

A steady uptrend remains in place here, although it is less exuberant than some other indices.

The index briefly dipped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Friday following the US jobs report, but recovered in the short-term.

So far the week has begun in lacklustre fashion, but overall the index continues to hold the gains made following Jerome Powell’s speech last week.

Rising trendline support from October comes into play towards 3900, so we could see some short-term weakness towards this level, although it would still leave the uptrend intact.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq lose traction as wider concerns remain

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq have stuttered somewhat within a period of strength. Will this mark the beginning of a bearish turn, or are we simply pausing before the bulls come back into play?

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 December 2022 

FTSE 100 struggling for momentum

The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a remarkably consistent period of strength since the lows of mid-October.

That rally has taken us up into a key region of resistance that has seen a number of major market tops over the course of the year. With that in mind, there is a heightened risk that we see price roll over from this 7577-7690 resistance zone. Thus far we are seeing indecision, but no major reversal signal per se.

With that in mind, it makes sense to watch for a break from this recent intraday uptrend to bring about a fresh bearish reversal signal. That would involve a move back below the 7421 support level.

Until that is broken, there is a chance of further upside.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX struggles to exit consolidation phase as price rolls over

The DAX has struggled to maintain the bullish momentum that saw the index surge higher over a five-week period from early October.

While we have seen price grinding higher in the weeks that have followed, we are seeing it roll over since the beginning of December. Interestingly, we appear to have finally seen the stochastic breakdown from overbought territory after around six weeks above the 80 threshold.

In the past such a move has provided timely sell signals for the DAX. Thus, there is a chance we soon see price weaken from here.

Nonetheless, it probably makes more sense to wait for a break below the 14124 swing-low to bring greater confidence that such a move is taking shape.

Until then, there is a chance we do continue to see price grind higher.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq rolls over as risks resurface

The Nasdaq has been on the back foot since Thursday’s peak, with price struggling to break through the 12084 swing-high established in mid-November.

That failure to break higher does highlight the potential for further consolidation within a period of time that has seen the index struggle to embark upon the next phase of its recovery.

From a wider perspective, we can see the downtrend in play here, with the current recovery phase still looking like it represents another retracement as the bears wait in the wings.

Quite where that rally reverses remains to be seen, with a move below 11443 bringing greater confidence that the trajectory will reverse from here.

Until then, there is still a good chance we see another near-term push higher to continue this recovery phase.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 drop on recession fears

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as recession fears bite.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Shares S&P 500 Recession DAX S&P Global Ratings

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 December 2022 

FTSE 100 consolidates further below its near six-month high

The FTSE 100 consolidates further below its near six-month high at 7,618 as UK house price growth slows sharply.

The Halifax House Prices index in the UK rose by 4.7% year-on-year (YoY) in November, the least since July 2020, compared to 8.2% in October. The average UK house price also declined by 2.3% versus October, the biggest drop since October 2008.

Short-term a fall towards the 7,515 September peak and Tuesday’s low at 7,503 is on the cards, a slip through which should engage the late November low at 7,421. As long as it underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the October-to-December uptrend remains intact, though.

Good resistance can now be found between the 7,577 August peak and Monday’s high at 7,599. Key resistance remains to be seen among the 7,618 to 7,671 April-to-June as well as November highs.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 forms minor top

The DAX 40 is seen giving back some of its recent strong October-to-November gains of over 23% despite China loosening its strict Covid-19 policy as market participants instead focus on US growth, with warnings from US banks about a recession next year leading to risk-off sentiment.

With the DAX 40 having slid through the October-to-December uptrend line at 14,520 earlier this week, the mid-November lows at 14,150 to 14,125 remain in focus but may offer short-term support.

Immediate resistance above the 14,325 late November low comes in at the mid-November high at 14,442.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 slips towards key support area on US recession fears

The S&P 500’s slide through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,032 on increasing US recession fears for next year and global risk-off sentiment has taken it back to its key short-term 3,918 to 3,904 support zone.

It contains the 21 September, late October and early November highs which may hold on Wednesday on a daily chart closing basis. Should this not be the case, the 55-day SMA and early October high at 3,826 to 3,807 would be in sight.

Resistance can be seen along the breached October-to-December uptrend line at 3,975 and the minor psychological 4,000 mark.

Since the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Put/Call ratio has been trading for much of November at elevated levels of up to 1.46, above the March 2020 1.28 peak, the odds of a sharp decline into the end of the year being seen are relatively low as the ratio tends to act as a contrary indicator, meaning that when a large amount of puts are being bought compared to calls, equity markets generally tend not to fall much further.

Instead, they have a high probability of rallying in the near future. Furthermore, since 1950 there have been three times as many positive as negative Decembers for the S&P 500.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking for a positive catalyst

Indices have dropped back from recent highs, but are beginning to show tentative signs of stabilisation.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 December 2022 

FTSE 100 drops below 7500

The drift lower continues, with the index dropping back below 7500 after an impressive bounce in late November.

The past month has seen the index leap off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and rally to its highest level since early June. The retracement over the past week is the first real drop in weeks, and leaves the bounce intact for the time being.

A revival above 7500 puts 7600 back into play, and could see the index push higher into the end of the year.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX tests support

A small drop back here after the huge gains from the October low is now heading towards an area of potential support.

Having rallied to 14,500, the index is drifting back towards 14,150, previously an area of resistance during the downward move of 2022. If this holds as support then a continuation of the rally could see the index move on to 14,500 again, and then towards 14,840.

A drop below 14,100 might signal that a deeper retracement is at hand, potentially towards 13,600.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 holds above 100-day MA

The index is hovering above the 100-day SMA for another session, having fallen back below the 200-day SMA and back from its highs at 4100.

A rebound back above 3960 would potentially open the way to another test of 4100, while above this the 4150 level comes into play. It continues to hold trendline support from the October lows, providing a further boost to the bullish view.

A drop below 3900 might suggest further losses down towards 3842 and the 50-day SMA, and from there 3700 becomes the next area to watch.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 regain lost ground ahead of US PPI data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 ahead of US PPI data.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 09 December 2022 

FTSE 100 rises on short-covering ahead of weekend

The FTSE 100 is recovering into the end of the week as traders buy back some of their recent shorts ahead of next week’s anticipated 50 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) and as inflation in China drops to an 8-month low.

The FTSE 100 is thus bouncing off Thursday’s low at 7,463, made not far above the 7,429 to 7,421 mid-November high and late November low, and is seen heading back towards its 7,515 mid-September peak.

Further up lies its near six-month high at 7,618 which is part of the major 7,621 to 7,671 April-to-June highs resistance zone.

While the late November low at 7,421 underpins, the medium-term October-to-December uptrend remains valid.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 likely to recover at end of first negative week in ten

The DAX 40 is expected to bounce back into the end of the week but will probably still end up in negative territory after nine consecutive positive weeks once US Producer Price Inflation (PPI) has been published on Friday.

Immediate minor resistance may be encountered at the 14,365 early December low but more significant resistance at the 14,442 mid-November high. Above it lurks its near six-month high at 14,606.

Only a slip through Thursday’s low at 14,192 would put the mid-November lows at 14,150 to 14,125 back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

The CAC 40 regains some lost ground ahead of next week’s ECB rate announcement

The French CAC 40 index’s retracement lower to marginally below its 6,641 late November low might be followed by a short-covering advance on Friday, ahead of next week’s European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate hike which is widely anticipated to add 50 basis points to the cash rate, taking it to 2.5%.

On Friday minor resistance can be spotted at the 6,686 mid-November high and then at the 24 November high at 6,730 while support below Thursday’s low at 6,628 sits at the 6,522 mid-November trough.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 subdued ahead of Fed and ECB meetings

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid central bank rate decisions.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 December 2022 

FTSE 100 so far remains above support amid stronger-than-expected UK GDP data

The FTSE 100 has so far managed to hold above its 7,429 to 7,421 support zone, made up of the mid-November high and late November low as UK GDP growth for October came in at a stronger-than-expected 0.5%, the biggest increase in a year, which followed a contraction of 0.6% in September.

While the 7,515 September peak caps, the risk of a slip through the late November low at 7,421 remains in place. As long as it underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the October-to-December uptrend remains intact, though.

Failure at 7,421 would engage the early November high at 7,378.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 trades in low volatility ahead of ECB meeting

Last week the DAX 40 had its first negative week, on global recession fears, after nine consecutive positive weeks which produced an over 23% rally.

The index began this week on a weaker footing, ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decisions with both expected to raise rates by 50 basis points, but so far remains above last week’s low at 14,192. While it and the mid-November lows at 14,150 to 14,125 hold on a daily chart closing basis, further upside into year-end may be in store.

Immediate resistance above the 14,325 late November low comes in at Friday’s 14,389 high and, further up, at the mid-November high at 14,442.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 slips towards key support ahead of US Fed meeting

The S&P 500 is seen dropping back to its 3,918 to 3,904 support zone, consisting of the 20 September and late October, early November highs as well as the mid-November and early December lows, ahead of this week's US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate announcement.

While the index remains above 3,904 on a daily chart closing basis, it may revisit Friday’s high at 3,987, the minor psychological 4,000 mark and perhaps also the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,026 around which it failed earlier this month.

A drop through the 3,904 mid-November trough would most likely provoke a sell-off towards the 3,884 early September low and the 55-day SMA and early October high at 3,839 to 3,807.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 at risk ahead of US CPI release

The FTSE, DAX, and S&P 500 are at risk as the upcoming US CPI figure looks to reinforce or undermine the recent bullish sentiment.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 13 December 2022 

FTSE 100 heads back into key support

The FTSE 100 is on the back foot once again today, with price falling back into the 7421 swing-low support level established in late November.

In part this reflects the jobs data that has been released this morning, with average earnings and unemployment both moving higher. That comes off the back of a period of upside that took price back into a crucial zone of historical 2022 tops between 7577 and 7690.

A break back below the 7421 swing-low would bring about a fresh sell signal after this rally into the resistance zone. With that in mind, keep a close eye out for whether we break through support or rebound from here to establish sentiment.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX starting to head lower despite recent recovery attempt

The DAX has been attempting to regain lost ground since Thursdays low around 14200, with the index managing to kick off the week on a positive footing yesterday.

Nonetheless, we have seen price roll over once again today, raising the chances of a bearish turnaround for the index from here. Keep an eye out for the latest ZEW economic sentiment figure out of Germany this morning, while US CPI inflation provides the big event that could really set equity markets on their way once again.

Any failure to maintain the downwards trajectory in headline and core inflation could undermine this recent recovery for US and European stock markets.

For the DAX, we would need to see a break below the 14124 swing-low to establish a new bearish outlook for the index.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 at risk as price turns lower from trendline resistance

The S&P 500 has started to turn lower after a period of strength that has brought price back into the long-term descending trendline that has dominated 2022 thus far.

The decline seen last week brought price back down towards the 3903 support level, with yesterday’s push higher representing a notable attempt to move away from that critical support level.

Nonetheless, with price respecting the long-term descending trendline, and having broken through trendline support, there is a strong chance that the index falters once again.

Today’s US CPI reading represents a major release that will help influence directional bias as we move forward. As such, watch for a break below the 3903 support level to bring a more confident bearish outlook, with the recent uptrend still in play until that happens.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 struggle in wake of Fed decision

Indices have responded cautiously to the Fed decision, which provided little festive cheer for investors.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 15 December 2022 

FTSE 100 heading back to 7400

The index’s attempt at a renewed bounce has faltered, although a more bearish view would need a decline below 7400.

After falling back from 7600, the index attempted to bounce following the US CPI reading, but it was unable to hold above 7500. Now a fresh test of 7400 may develop, and if this is lost then the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) may come into play.

A revival above 7500 brings about another test of the 7600 support zone.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX stuck in a narrow range

The bounce from the September lows has stalled, and now we have to wait for a clearer signal for the next move.

Gains since late November have run out of momentum just above 14,500, as we saw yesterday following the US CPI figure. Meanwhile, since early November the 14,220 area has been a support zone. Thus, until we see a close above or below these levels the outlook seems unclear.

A move below 14,220 would open the way towards the 200-day SMA, while on the upside bulls need a close above 14,600 to seize back overall control and extend the bounce from the September lows.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 stuck below the 200-day MA

In the wake of the Fed meeting, the index found itself stuck below the 200-day SMA for a second successive day.

After yesterday’s failure to hold gains after the US CPI reading, the index dipped below 4000, but found support around 3960. However, the negative view remains in place after two failed attempts to push towards 4100 since late November.

A move below 3900 would be the necessary catalyst for a deeper retracement, potentially bringing 3700 into view.

A move above 4100 would give the bulls the upper hand once again.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 and DAX looking strong while S&P 500 lags behind

Indices have begun the week on a stronger note, but there remains a wide gap between European markets and their struggling US peers.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 09 January 2023 

FTSE 100 reaches four-year high

The new week begins with the FTSE 100 at its highest level since the summer of 2019.

The past week witnessed the biggest upward move in over two months for the index, taking it above the pre-pandemic highs and opening the way for a push towards 7900, last seen in May 2018.

The buyers remain firmly in control, having reasserted themselves in December with a higher low that has been followed up by the bullish price action of the past three weeks.

Sellers have found themselves unable to regain control, and it would need a move back below 7600 to suggest that there is a chance of a short-term reversal.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX at seven-month high

An almost straight-line move up over the past week has carried the index back above 14,600 and back to the area of resistance that held back gains in November and early December.

Further upside brings the 14,900 zone into play as possible resistance, a level last seen in March. This would mark an impressive recovery for the index from the lows of September and October, and go a long way to restoring a medium-term bullish view.

Sellers would need to push the price back below 14,000 and the 50-day simple moving averagea (SMA) to suggest at least some short-term weakness.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 stuck below 50-day MA

Friday’s price action took the price back to the top of its recent range, with an attempt to move on above the 50-day SMA.

The index has begun the new week below this indicator, and unlike the DAX and FTSE 100 the price is still firmly below its December highs. However, further gains will target the 200-day SMA, and then move on to challenge 4050 and then 4100.

A move back below 3860 would negate this view and bring the December lows around 3775 back into play.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 rallies slow on hawkish Fed comments

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of Fed Chair's speech.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 January 2023 

FTSE 100 trades close to its 4 ½ year high

The FTSE 100 briefly made a 4 ½ year high on Monday and reached 7,732 before coming off for the remainder of the day amid hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) comments but this morning is seen heading back up again on strong UK retail sales data.

Retail sales in the UK increased 6.5% in December 2022, accelerating from a 4.1% rise in November, but lagged behind inflation.

Were the July 2019 high and Monday’s high at 7,730 to 7,732 to be exceeded, the January and August 2018 highs at 7,791 to 7,796 would be targeted, above which sits the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903.

Support above Tuesday’s intraday low at 7,668 is to be found at the 7,649 to 7,621 early and late May 2022 highs and also at the 7,618 to 7,617 November and December 2022 highs.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rally loses upside momentum as German factory orders plunge

The DAX 40’s strong early January rally is beginning to lose upside momentum amid concerns following comments from Fed officials about needing to push US rates above 5% and then hold them.

Resistance can be spotted at Monday’s 14,833 high and while it caps, support between the 14,677 mid-December peak and the 14,606 early December high may be revisited.

Were a continued advance to take the index above Monday’s 14,833 high, the March 2022 high at 14,927 would be in focus.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 trades towards the upper end of its recent trading range

The Nasdaq 100’s attempt to break out of its late December to January sideways trading range was thwarted by hawkish Fed comments on Monday which sapped the energy out of the indices’ advance with it topping out at 11,307 short-term.

A slip back towards the 11,000 region may thus be at hand as Fed Chair Jeremy Powell speaks. Minor support below this area comes in at the 10,940 20 December low and further support at the 10,771 10 November low.

As long as major support between the November-to-January lows at 10,670 to 10,603 holds, a bullish reversal may take shape. For this to become probable, a rise and daily chart close above the 11,287 to 11,307 21 December and current January highs would need to occur.

But even then, good resistance between the mid-November and early December lows at 11,410 to 11,491 may prove difficult to overcome.

If it were to happen, however, the November to December peaks as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 12,084 to 12,258 would be back in the picture.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow remain bid ahead of US inflation data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of Thursday’s inflation data.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 11 January 2023 

FTSE 100 awaits Thursday’s US inflation data close to 4 ½ year high

The FTSE 100 briefly made a 4 ½ year high on Monday and reached 7,732 before coming off for the remainder of the day amid hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) comments.

It then recovered again on Tuesday but so far hasn’t managed to retest its Monday peak as market players await Thursday’s US inflation data.

Were the July 2019 high and Monday’s high at 7,730 to 7,732 to be overcome on a daily chart closing basis, the January and August 2018 highs at 7,791 to 7,796 would be next in line. Further up sits the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903.

Support above Tuesday’s intraday low at 7,668 lies at the 7,649 to 7,621 early and late May 2022 highs and also at the 7,618 to 7,617 November and December 2022 highs.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rally probes major long-term resistance area

The DAX 40’s strong early January rally has reached its long-term major resistance zone which sits at 14,814 to 15,059 and consists of the May 2021 to January 2022 lows, as Fed Chair Jeremy Powell’s speech on Tuesday didn’t provide any fresh insight to the central bank’s monetary stance.

This key resistance area is expected to cap at least in the short-term ahead of Thursday’s US consumer price inflation (CPI) data which is expected to come in at -0.1% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year versus 0.1% and 7.1% in the previous month.

Potential slips in the DAX 40 may find support at the 14,712 June 2022 high with further support sitting between the 14,677 mid-December peak and the 14,606 early December high.

Were a rise to above Wednesday’s 14,880 intraday high to be seen, the March 2022 high at 14,927 would be eyed next.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow Jones Industrial Average remains bid ahead of US inflation release

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) bounced off its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 33,390 on Tuesday and is gunning for its current January high at 33,937 ahead of Thursday’s US CPI data release.

Having traded sideways for much of December and into early January, the index has now broken out of its range and did so to the upside with the mid-November high at 34,010 being in focus.

Support now sits between the early January high, 55-day SMA and Tuesday’s low at 33,492 to 33,343. While it underpins, further upside is likely to be seen.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 and DAX steady while S&P 500 moves up ahead of CPI reading

After their strong run of recent days, the FTSE 100 and DAX are still looking in bullish form. Meanwhile the S&P 500 has managed to return to the 200-day MA.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 January 2023 

FTSE 100 consolidates around recent highs

The index remains at its highest level in four years, having clambered through 7600 and 7700 in the past week.

The highs from 2018 at 7791-7796 would be the next levels to watch, with 7903 the near-term target. The price does look somewhat overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits at 7480, but at present there is no sign of a reversal developing.

A drop back below 7600 might suggest that some short-term weakness is appearing.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX heads towards 15,000

The index is knocking on the door of 15,000 for the first time since February, having surged almost 3000 points since October.

European indices have been strong performers this month, continuing a theme from December, and now the index is focusing on the area around 15,000 that provided support through much of 2022. Its loss in February resulted in a huge downward move. Additional upside targets 15,500, and then on towards the highs above 16,000 that marked peak in the final quarter of 2021.

Arguably the index remains overstretched in the short-term, so a pullback could target the 50-day SMA towards 14,260, as well as the 14,500 area that marked resistance in June and November.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 probes 200-day MA

Yesterday’s leap higher took the index back to the 200-day SMA for the first time in a month.

Now the price targets 4020 and then 4100 in a move higher, but today’s CPI reading and bank earnings tomorrow may keep bullishness in check into the weekend.

A reversal back below 3900 suggests another move towards the 3800 support zone of mid-late December.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 continue to rally post US inflation data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of US banks kicking off earnings season.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 January 2023 

FTSE 100 now 1% away from all-time high

The FTSE 100 is now trading above 7,800, only 1% away from its all-time record high, as Thursday’s US inflation data gave another reason to buy risk.

In view is the May 2018 all-time high at 7,903, followed by the psychological 8,000 mark.

UK GDP slid by 0.3% for the three months to December, a slight improvement on the 0.4% drop for the three months to November. The British economy expanded 0.1% month-on-month in November, easing from a 0.5% growth in the previous period and beating market expectations of a 0.2% decline.

Slips may find support between the January and August 2018 highs at 7,791 to 7,796 as well as along the accelerated January support line at 7,785 and at Wednesday’s 7,773 high.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rally is breaking through its long-term resistance area

The DAX 40’s strong early January rally has overcome its long-term major resistance zone which was made up of the 14,814 to 15,059 May 2021 to January 2022 lows, as US inflation data on Thursday came in as expected at -0.1% month-on-month and 6.5% compared to the year before versus a previous 0.1% and 7.1%.

After five consecutive days of strong gains taking the DAX 40 to an over 7% gain within a couple of weeks, potential slips on profit taking into the end of the week may encounter the psychological 15,000 level. Much further down lies Thursday’s low at 14,534.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 closes above 200-day SMA ahead of start of US earnings season

The S&P 500 has overcome and managed to close above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 3,964 on US inflation data which came in as expected, the first time since mid-December, but faltered below the psychological 4,000 mark as the ‘official’ earnings season begins in the US later today.

It will be kicked off by major US investment banks such as JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup and drive equity markets over the next few weeks.

Support below the 200-day SMA at 3,964 and Monday’s high at 3,951 comes in at the previous resistance zone now, because of inverse polarity, support area between 3,918 and 3,904. It contains the late September and October highs and the mid-November and early December lows as well as the 55-day SMA.

We expect this support zone to hold, were it to be revisited at all.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100 and DAX looking strong, while S&P 500 moves back towards 4000

The strong run in indices continues, with the FTSE 100 still targeting a new multi-year high.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 16 January 2023 

FTSE 100 still on course for new highs

The index begins the week at its highest level since May 2018, having surged from 7400 at the beginning of the year.

From here the May 2018 high at 7903 and then 8000 become the next levels to watch on the upside, though given the scale of the rally some consolidation would not be surprising. This could then resolve into a fresh push to the upside.

In the event of a pullback, the 7700 area may provide support, while below that 7600 may also see buyers emerge.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX hovers near twelve-month high

A new one-year high was reached, albeit briefly, in early trading today.

The surge from the beginning of the year has seen the index add over 1000 points, rallying through the November and December high.

Further upside takes the index on towards 15,645, last seen in February 2022, while beyond this the January 2022 highs above 16,000 come into view.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 back above 200-day MA

The cash index is closed today for Martin Luther King Day, though index futures are tradeable until 6pm UK time.

Friday’s price action saw the price move further above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), pushing on towards 4000 for the first time since the first half of December. Additional gains target the 4100 level, which held back the index in late November and early December.

A reversal back below 3930 would point towards a fresh bearish impulse, potentially bringing 3760 back into play as potential support.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 take a breather as US markets reopen

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as earning’s season continues.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 17 January 2023 

FTSE 100 stalls marginally below its 2018 record high

The FTSE 100 is within a whisker of its all-time record high but struggles to reach it as investors are pausing for breath as the World Bank, World Economic Forum and major US companies warn of a possible global recession this year while US banks increase their reserves amid the worsening outlook.

The FTSE 100 nonetheless still has its May 2018 all-time high at 7,903 in sight, ahead of the psychological 8,000 mark.

Slips may find support around last Thursday’s 7,816 high and also between the January and August 2018 highs at 7,796 to 7,791.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rally is taking a breather

The DAX 40’s strong early January rally last week overcame its long-term major resistance zone which consists of the 14,814 to 15,059 May 2021 to January 2022 lows but this week is losing upside momentum on gloomy economic forecasts by the likes of the World Bank and the World Economic Forum.

It is normal for an index such as the DAX 40 to consolidate in the short-term after such a steep advance as has been seen since the beginning of January and after nine consecutive days of positive closes and a rise of around 7.5%.

A retracement lower is looking increasingly likely with the 15,000 mark representing a short-term downside target. Much further down strong support can be seen between early and mid-December highs at 14,606 to 14,677.

 

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 levels out around the 4,000 mark as US earnings season continues

The S&P 500 is expected to slip back towards its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 3,960, having last week struggled around the psychological 4,000 mark and as worries about the global economy weigh on stocks after the US’s prolonged weekend.

Support below the 200-day SMA at 3,960 can be spotted at the 9 January high at 3,951. Further down a previous resistance zone now, because of inverse polarity, support area sits between 3,918 and 3,904. It is comprised of the late September and October highs and the mid-November and early December lows as well as the 55-day SMA. We expect this support zone to hold, were it to be revisited at all.

A rise and daily chart close above last week’s 4,004 high would push the mid- and 22 November highs at 4,042 to 4,043 to the fore ahead of the early January high at 4,101 and the December peak at 4,139.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 weaken

Worries about the US economy and mixed earnings have put pressure on global equities, but the FTSE 100 and DAX remain firmly up for the year so far.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 January 2023 

FTSE 100 retreats from a four-year high

A higher high appears to be forming, with the potential for a retracement from the index’s overextended condition.

After surging in January so far the index has dropped back from its four-year highs. Potential areas of support now include 7700 and 7660, with a reversal similar to early December taking the index back towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

A move below 7550 would be needed to suggest that the uptrend has run its course for now.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX edges down but upward move still intact

Other indices have fallen back, but the DAX continues to hold on to its gains.

While the past two days have seen the upward move stall, the post-September uptrend still sits at a higher high. A pullback towards the 50-day SMA, similar to that seen in December, might create a higher low and leave the bullish view intact.

Additional upside targets 15,610, and then 15,715, both last seen a year ago.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 drops back below 200-day MA

The retreat seen on Wednesday takes the index back below the 200-day SMA.

This bearish development may well be followed up by a bearish MACD crossover, along with the creation of a lower high at 4000. This now puts the 3760 support area from December back into view, along with the 3700 and then 3600 areas of possible support.

Bulls will want to see a reversal back above 4000 to nullify this growing bearish outlook.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 likely to post first negative week of 2023

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as these are likely to end the week in negative territory on hawkish Fed comments after two consecutive bullish weeks in early 2023.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 20 January 2023 

FTSE 100 opens higher despite disappointing retail sales and a drop in consumer confidence

The FTSE 100 dropped for a third day in a row, this time by -1.1%, on Thursday but is trying to stabilise despite UK retail sales unexpectedly falling by 1% month-on-month in December following an upwardly revised 0.5% drop in November and a forecast of a 0.5% rise.

For 2022 as a whole retail sales fell 3% as rising prices and the cost-of-living crisis curbed consumer spending. The GfK Consumer Confidence indicator also unexpectedly dropped to -45 in January from -42 in December and against an expected improvement of -40.

Despite this the FTSE 100 is seen recovering from its 7,725 Thursday low and is flirting with the 7800 region whilst targeting the current January high at 7,876.

Failure at 7,725 would push the 10 January low at 7,668 to the fore. As long as it isn’t slipped through, though, the FTSE 100 remains on track to reach its May 2018 all-time high at 7,903, ahead of the psychological 8,000 mark.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 tries to rise off Thursday’s 14,904 low

The DAX 40 swiftly dropped to 14,904 on Thursday on hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) member comments but is now trying to regain its losses on the back of mainly stronger Asian equity markets into the end of the week.

Tuesday’s low at 15,081 may act as short-term resistance, though. Above it sits the current January high at 15,272. Below Thursday’s 14,904 low lie the May and October 2021 as well as the January 2022 lows at 14,839 to 14,814.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 is trying to bounce off Thursday’s 11,249 low

The Nasdaq 100 is seen bouncing off Thursday’s 11,249 low despite Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard's comments about keeping policy restrictive, given her previous dovish stance, on the back of better-than-expected earnings by the likes of Netflix which beat subscriber forecasts and showed solid margins for the quarter, resulting in a 7% after hours rally.

Minor resistance comes in along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 11,397 and at Monday’s 11,442 low ahead of this week’s 11,691 high.

A drop below Thursday’s low at 11,249 would put the 11,000 region back on the map. Minor support below this area comes in at the 10,940 20 December low and further support at the 10,771 10 November low.

As long as major support between the November-to-January lows at 10,670 to 10,603 holds, a medium-term bullish reversal may still take shape.

Source: ProRealTime