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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 remain bid despite stronger-than-expected UK inflation data

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as UK CPI hits 11.1%, its highest reading since 1981.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 November 2022

FTSE 100 holds at 200-day SMA despite stronger-than-expected inflation data

The FTSE 100 slipped back towards the 7,300 mark but continues to be supported by its uptrend channel support line at 7,288 amid stronger-than-expected UK inflation data which showed its highest reading since 1981.

The year-on-year Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for October came in at a stronger-than-expected 11.1% versus a forecast 10.7% and 10.1% in September with core CPI hitting 6.5% versus an expected 6.4% and the Retail Price Index (RPI) rising to 14.2% versus an expected 13.6% and 12.6% in September.

Minor support below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,323 and the uptrend channel support line at 7,288 can be found at last week’s low at 7,243. While remaining above this level, the October-to-November uptrend remains intact, though.

Since last week’s peak at 7,429 hasn’t been duplicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which instead made a lower high, thus forming what is called negative divergence, it is likely that upside momentum will continue to diminish over the coming days. It also points to a possible correction lower soon being seen.

A slip through last week’s low at 7,243 would push the early November high at 7,221 and 8 September low at 7,174 to the fore. Further down lies strong support at 7,131 to 7,104, made up of the August low, early October high and 55-day SMA.

Resistance can be seen at last week’s high at 7,429, a rise above which would lead to the August and September peaks at 7,515 to 7,577 being in sight.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

The DAX 40 continues to advance post better-than-expected ZEW data

On Tuesday the DAX 40 briefly dipped to 14,125 but ended the day in positive territory as the ZEW Economic Sentiment for November came in at -38.7 versus an expected -52 and -59.7 in October.

While 14,125 underpins, the index remains on track to overcome Tuesday’s high at 14,442 in which case the April high at 14,599 will be in focus. Further up the June peak can be spotted at 14,712 and the March high at 14,927.

Below Tuesday’s low at 14,125 lies the minor psychological 14,000 mark and the August high at 13,976.

DAX 40 chartSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 remains bid ahead of US retail sales data

The S&P 500, despite losing a lot of last week’s strong upside momentum, has so far risen to 4,042, close to the 200-day SMA at 4,061, which remains in focus ahead of Wednesday’s US retail sales data release for October which is expected to come in at 1.0% versus 0.0% in September.

The index will technically remain immediately bid while it stays above Tuesday’s 3,952 intraday low on a daily chart closing basis.

Support below this level can be spotted between the 21 September, late October and early November highs at 3,918 to 3,913.

S&P 500 chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking to move higher

Indices have stabilised in recent days, and a fresh move higher may be developing.

BG_trading_charts_strategy_forex_indicesSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 November 2022 

FTSE 100 builds a base above 200-day MA

The index continues to hold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), providing hope that this consolidation can resolve into a move higher.

Recent gains have been capped below 7400, so this will need to be broken to the upside in order to open the way to previous highs around 7500 and 7580.

For the moment, the index is using the 200-day SMA as support, building a potential springboard for further upside.

A close below the 200-day and below 7300 would suggest that a move back towards the 100-day SMA (currently 7228) could result.

FTSE_171122.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX looks to push higher

The consolidation of the past three days appears to be resolving into another move up, with the price having found support around 14,200.

Should the index continue to push higher, then the 14,650 level comes into view, the high from the beginning of June. This would put the index at a five-month high and further suggest that the 2022 downtrend at least has run its course.

This week, the index has shown reluctance to drop back below 14,100, but a drop below would put 14,000 back into view as possible support.

DAX_171122.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 holds firm above support

As with the FTSE 100 and the DAX, this index has found support over recent days, around 3960.

A drop back below 3880 would suggest a move back towards trendline support from the October low, towards 3900.

For the moment the price has shown little willingness to head lower, so a move above 4000 bring the 200-day SMA (currently 4057) into view.

From here, the next level to watch would be the 4127 area, last seen as a lower high in September and support in late August.

SPX_171122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow remain sidelined

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow amid hopes of China reopening.

IndicesSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 November 2022 

FTSE 100 remains above 200-day SMA post UK autumn statement

The FTSE 100 dropped back towards the 7,300 zone but continues to be supported by its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,321 post the UK autumn budget which largely didn’t deviate from what had been widely expected.

The fact that the windfall tax on electricity generators and energy companies wouldn't be as high as some have feared helped the index recover, as did Friday morning’s UK October month-on-month retail sales data which came in at a better-than-expected 0.6% versus a revised -1.5% in September.

GfK Consumer confidence also improved with a better-than-expected -44 versus a forecast -46 and -47 in the month prior.

Minor support below the 200-day SMA, the uptrend channel support line and Thursday’s low at 7,321 to 7,293 can be found at last week’s low at 7,242. While the index stays above this level, the October-to-November uptrend remains intact, though.

A slip through last week’s low at 7,242 would put the early November high at 7,221 and 8 September low at 7,174 on the map. Further down sits strong support at 7,131 to 7,104, consisting of the August low, early October high and 55-day SMA.

Resistance can be seen at last week’s high at 7,429, a rise above which would lead to the August and September peaks at 7,515 to 7,577 being eyed.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

The DAX 40 continues to range trade amid China’s reopening prospects

The DAX 40 continues to be sidelined in a tight trading range above Tuesday’s 14,125 low and its November uptrend line amid of hopes that China will soon reopen.

While 14,125 underpins, the index is expected to better Tuesday’s high at 14,442, in which case the April high at 14,599 will be in focus. Further up the June peak can be seen at 14,712 and the March high at 14,927.

Below Tuesday’s low at 14,125 lies the minor psychological 14,000 mark and the August high at 13,976.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s (Dow) minor retracement lower in the course of this week has so far taken it to Thursday’s low at 33,146 amid the longest period of low volatility seen since September 2021.

Since the indices’ recent high at 34,010 hasn’t been confirmed by a higher high on the daily RSI, negative divergence can be made out on the daily chart. It often acts as an early warning signal of either a trend correction, as is currently being seen, or a reversal.

Failure, meaning a daily chart close below 34,010 would engage the early November high at 33,075, a slip through which could lead to the 10 November low and the 200-day SMA at 32,425 to 32,420 being revisited.

Were the current consolidation phase to be followed by further upside, however, and the recent high at 34,010 be exceeded, the August peak at 34,285 would be in the picture.

DJIA chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 open the week in lacklustre form

Rising Covid cases in China cast a pall over indices in opening trading, while US futures were lower too.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_indices_098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 November 2022 

FTSE 100 still stuck below 7400

The index has faltered in early trading, remaining stuck below 7400.

The bounce from the lows of October has carried the index back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), so for now the weakness might not be too concerning.

A reversal below 7300 might suggest a further push back towards 7150 support.

Additional gains above 7400 would target trendline resistance from the March highs, towards 7500.

FTSE_211122.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX down in early trading

Small losses in early trading have reversed some of Friday’s gains, although the bounce is firmly intact.

A deeper retracement may develop if the price drops back below 14,130. Below this the 200-day SMA would come into play as possible support, with the August high at 13,964 also an area where support may be found, having previously been resistance.

Further gains in the medium term would see the index target 14634, the early June high.

DAX_211122.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges lower

A drift lower here from the high earlier in the month has yet to turn into a more serious pullback.

The gentle declines seen over the past week are heading towards the 100-day SMA (3913). Below this the 50-day SMA at 3787 comes into play.

A revival above 4000 would then see the index push towards the 200-day SMA (currently 4052). Above this the September highs at 4155 are the next target.

SPX_211122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq turn lower, but bulls may not be done quite yet

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq show signs of potential weakness, although the bullish recovery phase may not be over quite yet.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 November 2022 

FTSE 100 struggles to break resistance within recovery phase

The FTSE 100 has been pushing higher over the course of the past month, with the index attempting to reach a fresh two-month high once again today.

Thus far that break up through 7429 has not been forthcoming, with a move up through that level required to signal the push into another leg higher.

From the wider perspective, it is clear that we could turn lower before too long, resuming the pattern of lower highs evident throughout the year. However, we are yet to find out whether this current upward move is complete or set to resume.

A break back below the 7292 support level would provide a signal that the bears are coming back into play once again.

UKX-Daily-2022_11_22-07h50.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX starts to weaken from resistance

The DAX has enjoyed a dramatic rise over the course of October and November, with the index pushing into a five-month high in the process.

While the index has been pushing up into the 14442 high established a week ago, we are seeing price start to turn lower today.

Whether this failure to regain the previous high signals the beginning of a bearish pullback or simply an extension of the recent consolidation phase remains to be seen.

As such, a signal on where go from here comes with a push up through 14442 or below 14124.

DAX-Daily-2022_11_22-08h02.pngSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq on the slide after recent recovery

The Nasdaq has been leading the move lower for US indices, with the tech-focused index expected to be at the forefront of both bullish and bearish phases for markets.

The recent recovery phase has taken the Nasdaq up through the 11668 resistance level, signalling a wider retracement of the 13722-10432 move coming into play.

As such, there is still a chance that we see price push higher for a deeper retracement before long. However, whether we see such a move or not, it is likely that this recovery phase is a precursor to another move lower for the index.

NASDAQ-Daily-2022_11_22-03h16.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq on the rise, as the recovery phase looks to continue

The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq turn upwards once more, bringing expectations of further strength.

BG_index_indices_FTSE_Nikkei_Dow_DAX.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 November 2022 

FTSE 100 surges higher towards resistance

The FTSE 100 managed to push sharply higher once again yesterday, with the index rising into a fresh two-month high.

Set within a wider trend of lower highs, this rebound looks likely to represent a retracement before we head lower once again. However, the higher we get, the more likely we are to see a bullish breakout through the 7577 swing-high.

Nonetheless, for now we are looking for a potential reaction from the descending trendline (provisional) drawn from the June and August peaks.

Given the risk that this current rise continues, another method to lessen the risk involved in looking for short positions here would be to wait for a breakdown through 7292 as signal that the short-term pattern of higher lows has broken down.

Until that happens, there is still clearly strong upside momentum playing out here.

FTSE 100 chartSource: ProRealTime

DAX reaches five-month high

The DAX has managed to push tentatively through the recent high of 14442, bringing about a fresh five-month high for the index.

Coming off the back of a period of consolidation below last Tuesday's high, the break through resistance does signal the potential for another bout of gains to build on the recent two months of gains.

Keep an eye out for German PMI data released at 08.30 as a source of volatility. However, for now, it looks likely that we will see further upside to follow through on this recent break.

A move back below the 14124 swing-low would be required to signal a potential downside move coming into play.

DAX chartSource: ProRealTime

Nasdaq turns upwards to signal potential year-end rally

The Nasdaq has started to tentatively turn upwards once again, following a week of losses that took some of the heat off the index.

This index is likely to be the main casualty when market sentiment does take the turn once again, but it can also benefit the index with a substantial upside move when markets take a more constructive view.

For the DAX, any short-term gains do look to represent a retracement of the 13722-10432 until we see that 13722 level taken out. However, for the near-term, there is a distinct possibility that we see price rise into a deeper upward retracement.

A push through the 11808 level would bring a signal that we are set for another upward phase here.

Nasdaq chartSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 show no sign of turning lower

Indices have held their ground this week, giving hope of a continuation of the rally into the end of the month.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 November 2022 

FTSE 100 reaches two-month high

The index came within a whisker of 7500 yesterday, hitting its highest level since early September.

So far there has been so sign of a reversal in the move higher from the October lows, or even a consolidation after a 300 point move since early November.

If a small retracement does happen then the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) might be a natural destination, as well as the 7300 area.

A break above 7500 would see the price head towards the August highs around 7600.

FTSE_241122.pngSource: ProRealTime

DAX holds firm

Similarly this index has yet to see any significant downward move, with small dips this week being met with buying.

For the moment the buyers hold sway, and additional upside towards 14,700 and the June high seems to beckon.

In the event of a pullback, the index may well head back to the 200-day SMA (currently 13,548).

DAX_241122.pngSource: ProRealTime

S&P 500 edges close to 200-day MA

US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving, but the index has managed to return to the 200-day SMA, continuing its rebound from the October lows.

The September high of 4127, and then the August high at 4300 (also the last time the price reached the 200-day SMA), are the next levels to watch on the upside.

So far sellers have been unable to keep control over the index except for brief periods last week. A dip towards 3900 was met by buying, so any move down in the short-term needs to breach this level.

SPX_241122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 remain bid in low volatility trading

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 as China’s Covid-19 cases hit a record high.

BG_ftse_100_ukx_index_indices_stocks_lonSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 November 2022 

FTSE 100 remains bid but is losing upside momentum

Earlier this week the FTSE 100 practically reached the minor psychological 7,500 mark which remains in focus as UK car production returns to growth.

It rose 7.4% in October from a year ago, though production figures remain considerably below pre-pandemic levels as global chip shortages continue to affect British car manufacturers.

While Thursday’s low at 7,441 underpins, the August and September peaks at 7,515 to 7,577 continue to be eyed but may, at least short-term, provoke failure next week.

Since US equity markets only trade for a half day over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, European markets are expected to also trade in low volumes on what is known as “Black Friday.”

A slip through 7,441 today would engage the 7,429 11 November peak below which sits the 4 November high at 7,378. Further down meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,318.

While remaining above it, the FTSE 100 is considered to be bullish, it being the only major European equity index which trades close to or in positive territory.

25112022UKX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

The DAX 40 continues to rise despite surging Covid-19 cases in China

The DAX 40 continues its steep October-to-November ascent of so far over 20% despite surging Covid-19 cases to a new record high and related lockdowns in China hurting local sentiment and global recession fears dampening demand.

The index is approaching its April high at 14,599 which may act as short-term resistance on Friday. If not, the June peak at 14,712 and the March high at 14,927 should be eyed next.

Slips should find support at the 14,442 mid-November high amid an increasingly overbought index which next week may give back some of its recent gains as US players return from their extended Thanksgiving weekend.

25112022DAX-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

The CAC 40 remains on track to reach the 6,759 late April high despite recession fears

The French CAC 40 index continues to advance, albeit in a more gradual fashion than in October, despite lurking global recession fears and European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers agreeing in their October meeting accounts to stick to monetary tightening, even if this were to lead to a shallow recession.

In case of a prolonged and deep recession, which would likely curb inflation to a large extent, ECB policymakers might consider pausing raising rates, however.

For now, the CAC 40 remains on track to reach its 6,759 late April high, having so far risen by close to 20% since early October. The late April high at 6,759, together with the late March high at 6,831, offers a solid resistance area which may well cap the CAC 40’s advance in the days ahead.

Immediate support can be spotted at the 6,686 mid-November high on Friday with more important support being found at the 6,626 August peak.

25112022PXI-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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