News and Trade Ideas (Indices)

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 drop on banking sector woes

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid risk-off sentiment due to panic surrounding the banking sector.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Shares Bank FTSE 100 S&P 500 Silicon Valley Bank

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 10 March 2023 

FTSE 100 drops to six-week low on worries about the banking sector

Worries about the solvency of Sillicon Valley startup bank SVB Financial and the liquidation of crypto bank Silvergate following a mass withdrawal of deposits after the collapse of the FTX exchange have led to strong global risk-off sentiment with the FTSE 100 slipping to six-week lows close to 7,750.

Further down the mid- to late January lows can be found at 7,725 to 7,708 which are expected to offer support on Friday.
Minor resistance can be spotted at the 7,811 23 January high and major resistance between the mid- to late February lows at 7,850 to 7,854.

Source: Tradingview

DAX 40 slips towards its October-to-March uptrend line

The DAX 40, although also coming off, has to a large degree been spared the panic surrounding the global banking sector with investors worrying that higher interest rates are pressuring bank balance sheets due to a rise in borrower defaults.

The index is seen slipping back towards its October-to-March uptrend line at 15,330 which may offer support on Friday around the publication of US unemployment data. Were it to be slipped through, the January peak at 15,272 would be in sight.

Immediate resistance can be spotted at the 1 March high at 15,480 and further resistance at the 23 February high at 15,556 as well as at the mid-February high at 15,552. Below 15,272 sits good support between the late February and early March lows at 15,184 to 15,145.

Source: Tradingview

S&P 500

The S&P 500 slid through its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 3,935 to levels last traded in early January as cracks appear in the banking sector ahead of Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls data release.

SVB Financial Group’s share price declined by 60% after the launch of a $1.75 billion share sale on Wednesday to shore up its balance sheet and as the Silicon Valley Bank had to reassure its shareholders that their money was safe, provoking an over $80 billion drop in the value of bank shares and pushing US equity indices lower.

The now breached October-to-March uptrend line at 3,944 and 200-day SMA at 3,935 do not bode well for the bulls since unless a bullish reversal were to take the S&P 500 back above these on a daily chart closing basis, the December low at 3,764 will represent the next downside target.

Near-term support comes in at the 19 January low at 3,886 while resistance can be spotted at 3,935 to 3,944.

Source: Tradingview

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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 under pressure as banking crisis rocks markets

The bank failures in the US have hit risk appetite, and indices are down sharply in early trading.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 13 March 2023 

FTSE 100 gives up 2023 gains

A pullback here has seen the index drop to its lowest level since early January.

While this has wiped out the gains made in January and February, the uptrend is still intact, although the index has dropped below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A revival above 7800 would help to suggest a higher low is in place, and might then indicate a move back towards 7800 is developing.

Alternately, further losses head towards the 7615 peak from the beginning of December, and then towards the 7500 area.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX drops to 50-day SMA

Aside from a push higher last week, the index remains around the area it first reached at the beginning of February.

This is quite remarkable given the volatility we have seen recently, and points towards some impressive strength. Dips towards 15,200 have found buyers, so unless we see a reversal below this level the bullish view remains intact.

While buyers have been unable to sustain a fresh drive higher, this consolidation may provide the foundation for a move to 15,600 and higher once again.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 struggles on bank crisis headlines

Last week’s losses took the index back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year.

While it has bounced from Friday’s lows at 3850, the overall impression remains firmly bearish. It is possible that we will see a move below 3850 that then tests the December lows around 3780.

It would require a move back above 4000 to put the price on a more bullish footing, and would then target 4100 and then 4170.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq expecting further volatility as US CPI release looms

The FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq have settled somewhat after their recent banking-led declines, although todays US CPI release brings further volatility.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 14 March 2023 

FTSE 100 at risk of further declines

The FTSE 100 has been hit hard over the course of the past week, with concerns over potential contagion in the banking sector bringing a major risk-off tone throughout markets.

However, the impact this is also having on expectations at the Fed has brought dollar weakness, with the gains seen for GBP/USD bringing about a secondary source of weakness for the FTSE 100.

From a wider perspective, this current decline looks likely to be a retracement of the 7296-8045 rally, thus highlighting the potential for us to bottom out around the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at 7473.

However, whether we see that next leg lower depends on if the index can break through 7529, signalling a new period of weakness coming to the fold. As such, another leg lower looks likely if we see price close below that level, with 7473 in view.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX pauses at key support

The DAX has similarly been on the back foot of late, with price falling back down into the 14903 support level yesterday.

That threshold will be key in determining where we go from here, with a decline through support bringing about a fresh sell signal for the index.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq rolling over from Fibonacci resistance

The Nasdaq has been better shielded than the likes of the Dow and S&P 500 thanks to the absence of banking stocks.

Nonetheless, we are seeing the index weaken ahead of the crucial inflation data release this afternoon. With headline CPI expected to post a welcome 0.4% decline, there may be a focus on the core figure given the expectations that it will remain stubbornly high at 5.5% (currently 5.6%).

Therefore, there is risk of further declines given how market pricing for the Fed’s rate decision appears to be a coin toss between a 25 or 50 basis point hike. Having turned lower from the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level, there is a risk of another move lower here. However, the rebound from trendline support does raise the possibility of a move into 76.4% resistance.

With a clear downtrend seen over the past month, we would require a push through 12468 to bring a wider bullish reversal signal.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 mixed post Tuesday rally

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid UK budget and ahead of Thursday’s ECB rate decision.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 March 2023 

FTSE 100 recovers from ten-week low ahead of UK budget

The FTSE 100 benefitted from US inflation coming in at 6% as expected on Tuesday, leading to a recovery in US stock markets ahead of Wednesday’s UK budget in which banks are likely to be in particular focus.

With fears of a run on banks in the UK having dissipated since HSBC’s purchase of SVB’s British subsidiary for £1 and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s assurance that there is no “systemic risk” in the UK banking sector, the FTSE 100 is in a position to possibly recover further this week as the budget is likely to introduce measures designed to support renewed economic growth in the UK.

A rise back towards the previously important support zone, now because of inverse polarity resistance area, at 7,708 to 7,724 may ensue over the coming days. It consists of the mid- to late January lows and needs to be exceeded for a medium-term recovery to become technically possible.

Support can be found at Tuesday’s 7,501 low, a fall through which isn’t expected to be seen on Wednesday but would push the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,422 to the fore.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 recovers from key support zone

The DAX 40, although having fallen sharply on Monday, managed to find support in the significant 14,992 to 14,904 zone, made up of the mid- to late January lows on Tuesday and recovered to above the 55-day SMA at 15,160 as US CPI data came in at an expected 6.0% year-on-year.

On Wednesday the 55-day SMA may act as support, together with the 15,145 early March low, ahead of the 15,100 region before Thursday’s ECB rate decision which is still expected to see a 50-basis point rate hike to 3.5%. The DAX 40 may thus still revisit the early to mid-February lows at 15,245 to 15,276 which may act as resistance, though.

For a continuation of the October-to-March uptrend to be seen, the breached uptrend line, now resistance line, at 15,430 and, more importantly, Monday’s high at 15,486 would need to be overcome.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 bounces back amid falling US CPI

The S&P 500 bounced off its ten-week low at 3,809 and rallied by around 1.5% as US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) fell to 6% in February as expected, the lowest since September 2021, boosting stock markets.

The S&P 500 has thus risen back to the 200-day SMA at 3,932 which has capped the upside over the past four trading days. A rise and daily chart close above it is needed, for the next higher 55-day SMA at 3,995 to be reached, together with the psychological 4,000 mark.

Slips should find support around the 19 January low at 3,886 and at Tuesday’s 3,855 low.

A currently unexpected fall through this week’s low at 3,809 would open the way for the December low at 3,764 to be reached.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 recover, the latter even on track for a bullish weekly close

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as the global banking crisis seems to abate and as the ECB hikes its rates by 50-basis points to 3.50% but may stop there.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 March 2023 

FTSE 100 recovery underway but expected to end week sharply lower

Having slid to negative territory for the year, the FTSE 100 managed to stabilise on Thursday, as a US rescue package for First Republic Bank eased market concerns about another bank failure.

However, the FTSE 100 will nonetheless most likely see its sharpest weekly loss since February 2022. Having said that, the fact that the index stabilises around its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) could indicate that the medium-term bullish trend seen since October may still be intact, provided that no drop through the December-to-March lows at 7,310 to 7,296 is seen.

Slips should find support along the 200-day SMA at 7,422 with the 7,541 to 7,553 mid- to late December highs representing the first upside target.

Only a rise and daily chart close above Tuesday’s 7,644 high would indicate that a probable resumption of the medium-term uptrend is taking place.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 recovers on hopes of averted banking crisis

The DAX 40, although having fallen sharply this week, managed to find support at Thursday’s 14,659 three-month low as fears of a full-blown banking crisis abate and the European Central Bank (ECB) stuck to its guns by raising its interest rates by 50-basis points to 3.50%, its sixth rate hike in a row.

The fact that the central bank indicated that it didn’t intend to hike rates further in the near future also helped European equities stabilise.

The DAX 40 may reach the early March low at 15,144 on Friday, above which meanders the 55-day SMA at 15,194. Only a rise and daily chart close above the next higher 15,273 high seen on Tuesday would indicate that the recent rout has likely ended with the resumption of the October-to-March medium-term uptrend then becoming more probable.

Minor support comes in at Monday’s low at 14,885.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100

Monday’s drop in the Nasdaq 100 to its ten-week low at 11,675 due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was followed by a bullish reversal in the index off the 200- and 55-day SMA as it became clear that central banks not just in the US but also in Europe were going to provide liquidity to those banks who needed it in order to avert a global banking crisis.

The fact that First Republic Bank will receive a $30 billion deposit from other major US banks helped alley investors’ fears further on Thursday with the Nasdaq 100 not only rising but also closing on a daily chart closing basis above its last reaction high at the 6 March 12,467 high.

This and the fact that the index is the only one amid its peers to likely end the week in positive territory is technically bullish price action and points towards the February peaks at 12,747 to 12,896 being in sight once more.

Support below 12,467 can be spotted at last Thursday’s 12,339 high.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100 weakens but DAX and Nasdaq 100 futures move up in early trading

Indices faltered after the Fed last night, and remain mixed this morning, but the DAX and the Nasdaq 100 are looking more positive.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 March 2023 

FTSE 100 struggles to move higher

After surging on Tuesday, the price dropped back slightly yesterday, and it has edged down in early trading from overnight highs.

The index is still firmly up on the lows from Monday, so some consolidation is not surprising. It would need a move back below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to suggest a more sustained period of weakness that could see Monday’s lows tested once again.

Conversely, a bounce back above 7580 would hand the buyers the advantage and suggest a further recovery that might result in an eventual move back to the February highs.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX claws back Wednesday losses

Similarly, this index faltered at the 50-day SMA yesterday, but given it has rallied 900 points from the lows this short-term period of indecision is not surprising.

A revival above the 50-day SMA would mean that the buyers have reasserted control and that a move back to the March highs is back in play. The pullback of the past two weeks does suggest a higher low has been formed.

Thus it would need a move back below 14,400 to really suggest that the sellers are back in control, with a drop below 14,600 indicating that the outlook has shifted to neutral in the short-term.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 pushes off overnight lows

The index continues to be the best of the bunch on Wall Street, rallying back to the February highs this week.

An initial move above 12,900 and towards 13,000 last night in the wake of the Fed was beaten back, but the bounce is intact, after the recovery from the 200-day SMA last week.

Now the index needs a daily close above 13,000 to signal that a break to the upside has occurred, which would then put a move to the August highs around 13,7000 into play.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 likely to end week on a quieter note

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as volatile week draws to an end.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 24 March 2023 

FTSE 100 tries to stabilise as UK retail sales unexpectedly rise

The FTSE 100 index has tried to find support along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,429 as UK retail sales surprised to the upside and rose by 1.2% month-on-month in February from an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in January and versus an expected rise of 0.2%.

Were the index to close on Friday around the 200-day SMA, it would mark the first slightly positive week after the past couple of weeks’ strong sell-offs due to the banking crisis.

Provided that Thursday’s low at 7,416 holds on a daily chart closing basis, a recovery next week towards this week’s high at 7,587 may ensue, a rise above which would push the 15 March high at 7,641 to the fore, above which sits strong resistance at 7,708 to 7,724, consisting of the mid-January and early February lows.

Support below the 7,416 low can be found around the 7,296 December low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 eyes 55-day SMA while 15,011 holds

The DAX 40 slid back below its 55-day SMA at 15,258 on Wednesday and capped it's attempt to move higher again on Thursday as investors continue to grapple with tightening monetary conditions and lingering worries about further bank failures being seen.

From a technical perspective, while Thursday’s low at 15,011 holds on a daily chart closing basis, further upside back towards the 55-day SMA and this week’s high at 15,258 to 15,304 is likely to be seen.

An advance and daily chart close above the 15,304 level would open the way for the 13 March high at 14,486 to be reached, a rise above which would confirm the resumption of the October-to-March medium-term uptrend.

Were Thursday’s low at 15,011 to be slid through, however, the mid- to late January lows at 14,992 to 14,904 may be revisited. Further down sits the 13 March low at 14,885.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 likely to end week on a quieter note

Despite a lot of volatility having thrown the Nasdaq 100 around this week and the US 2-10 yield curve un-inverting following an earlier inversion, normally a sign that a recession is on its way as short-term yields fall sharply in anticipation of rate cuts, the index looks bid and may well end the week higher for a second week in a row.

The February-to-March highs at 12,896 to 12,947 need to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis, for further medium-term upside to enter the fray with the minor psychological 13,000 mark representing the first upside target.

Since banks continue to borrow heavily at the Fed's discount window, a sign that stresses remain despite the actions taken by regulators, a slip through the March uptrend line at 12,715 remains a possibility and may lead to the 17 March high at 12,673 being revisited.

Only a slip and daily chart close below Wednesday’s low at 12,545 would cloud our bullish outlook, though, and put Monday’s low at 12,398 back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 begin week on a positive note

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as markets seem to calm down.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 27 March 2023 

FTSE 100 tries to stay above the 200-day SMA

Despite dropping to 7,331 on Friday due to ongoing fears of possible further bank failures being seen, the FTSE 100 managed to close near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,431 and is expected to open above it on Monday morning.

This has short-term bullish implications with a probable rise above the March downtrend line at 7,480 putting the 17 March high at 7,511 on the plate.

Provided that Friday’s low at 7,331 holds on a daily chart closing basis, a recovery towards last week’s high at 7,587 is expected to take place, a rise above which would push the 15 March high at 7,641 to the fore. Further up sits strong resistance at 7,708 to 7,724, made up of the mid-January and early February lows.

Support below the 200-day SMA at 7,431 can be spotted around the 7,296 December low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 expected to build on last week’s gains

The DAX 40, despite dropping to 14,801 on Friday over the recent banking turmoil and worries of a global recession, managed to close the week above the minor psychological 15,000 mark and is expected to build on last week’s gains.

The index is seen heading back up towards the March downtrend line at 15,176, a break through which would lead to the 55-day SMA at 15,262 and last week’s peak at 15,304 being back in the picture.

From a technical perspective, while Friday’s low at 14,801 holds on a daily chart closing basis, further upside is likely to be seen with the resumption of the October-to-March medium-term uptrend becoming a distinct possibility once last week’s high at 15,304 has been overcome.

Minor support can be found at the mid- to late January lows at 14,992 to 14,904 as well as at the 13 March low at 14,885.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 trades close to its 7-month high

Despite last week’s volatility, the Nasdaq 100 saw its second consecutive weekly positive close, having briefly traded in 7-month highs as some investors who sold their bank shares parked their money in the tech sector.

Investors’ main concern now is that the ongoing deposit flight from banks will result in a major contraction of lending activity which may push the global economy towards a recession. This was, however, tempered over the weekend by comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) head, Kristalina Georgieva, who said that China is showing signs of a robust economic recovery.

Most Asian equity indices seem to have therefore shrugged off the fact that China’s industrial production profits dropped by 22.9% year-on-year in the first couple of months of the year.

The Nasdaq 100 will likely this week once more try to exceed the February-to-March highs at 12,896 to 12,947 and do so on a daily chart closing basis, in which case further medium-term upside may well take the index towards the minor psychological 13,000 mark.

Were a slip through the March uptrend line at 12,702 to be seen, however, Friday’s low at 12,601 would be back in the frame.

Source: ProRealTime

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Indices continue their recovery

The bounceback from Friday’s lows continues for indices, as fears about a banking crisis recede.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 28 March 2023 

FTSE 100 reclaims 7500

The index rallied off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on Monday, having dipped below it on Friday.

Should the buyers be able to drive it back to 7600 then a higher low may well have been formed. This bolsters the bullish view and could see the price claw back more of the lost ground of the past six weeks. In that case 8000 would be an initial target.

A more bearish view requires a drop back below 7300, and then on below last week’s 7200 low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX makes headway

Friday’s session saw the price rally off the 100-day SMA, and it has pushed higher on Monday too.

This continues to build a picture of a higher low, with a move above the 50-day SMA the bullish view will receive further reinforcement, and then the price can contemplate a move back to the March highs and potentially higher.

This view would be negated with a move back below the 100-day SMA, and then on below the 14,500 area that marked the low last week.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow pushes back to the 200-day MA

Monday’s price action saw a tentative recovery to the 200-day SMA, helping to recoup some of the recent losses.

This begins to suggest a low has been formed for the time being and that another attempt at a move higher is underway. This initially targets the 50-day SMA, and then on to the 33,500 high from the beginning of the month.

It would require a reversal below 31,500 and a close below 31,300 to suggest that the lows of the past two weeks have been conclusively broken to the downside.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 boosted by Alibaba split

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as the Alibaba split into six groups points to an end of China’s crackdown on tech companies.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 29 March 2023 

FTSE 100 remains above the 200-day SMA

The FTSE 100 index, even though it dropped to 7,331 on Friday due to the banking crisis, has traded above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,435 for the past three days as bank shares stabilise.

While the two-week support line and 200-day SMA at 7,435 to 7,432 underpin on a daily chart closing basis, the index will remain short-term bullish with a rise above Tuesday’s high at 7,525 putting last week’s high at 7,587 in focus.

If the latter level were to be overcome, the 15 March high at 7,641 would be eyed, above which strong resistance can be spotted at 7,708 to 7,724, consisting of the mid-January and early February lows.

Support below the 7,435 to 7,432 zone can be spotted around the 7,296 December low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 remains bullish

The DAX 40 is heading higher again on diminishing concerns about contagion in Asian banks and as Alibaba shares boost Asian markets.

The shares of the Chinese technology giant rallied strongly as it announced a major reorganisation that will split it into six business groups to “unlock shareholder value.” The split is seen as marking the end of China's crackdown on the tech sector which helped Asian markets rise and led to a higher open in European indices.

The DAX 40 is seen heading back up towards the 55-day SMA at 15,272, above which lurks last week’s high at 15,304. Immediate support can be seen along the March support line at 15,055. Minor support below this level can be found at the mid- to late January lows at 14,992 to 14,904 as well as at the 13 March low at 14,885.

From a medium-term perspective, as long as Friday’s low at 14,801 holds on a daily chart closing basis, further upside is expected to be seen with the resumption of the October-to-March medium-term uptrend becoming a distinct possibility once last week’s high at 15,304 has been overcome.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 expected to resume its ascent

This week’s negative start to the week - with two consecutive lower days being seen on the daily chart - and having taken the Nasdaq 100 to a one-week low at 12,517, is expected to be followed by a positive session, boosted by the Alibaba split into six different entities which implies that China’s crackdown on technology companies is coming to an end.

A rise and daily chart close above Tuesday’s Hammer formation high at 12,712 on the daily candlestick chart would engage the mid-February high at 12,747 and also Monday’s high at 12,850, a rise above which would spell the resumption of the medium-term uptrend taking the index back to the February-to-March highs at 12,896 to 12,947 and above.

Were a slip through the March uptrend line at 12,590 to be seen, however, Tuesday’s low at 12,517 would be back in view, below which lies the 20 March low at 12,398.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 post yet more gains

Stocks have made yet more headway, bolstered by a sudden drop in Spanish CPI that has raised hopes of inflation abating.

Source: Blooomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 March 2023 

FTSE 100 returns to 7600

The price finds itself knocking on the door of the highs reached last week, having clawed back lost ground from Friday’s low.

Additional upside now points towards the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), followed up by the 50-day SMA and then on towards the 8000 highs from the end of February.

The buyers have reasserted control here, and it would need a drop back below 7400 to suggest another attempt to break below the lows of mid-March.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX powers higher

The bullish view continues to receive further strength here too, with a move above the 50-day SMA and a bullish MACD crossover.

After dipping to 14,400, the index has staged a recovery, moving to a three-week high at 15,400. This now puts it in sight of the recent highs above 15,600.

Should the risk on outlook prevail, then we can expect these highs to be breached too.

S&P 500 opens above 4000

The index has moved back to the highs from last week, and is poised to move on and test the highs of early March around 4070.

Clearing this hurdle would open the way to the 4150 highs from January, and mark a significant recovery for the index from the lows of 3800 that it reached in mid-March.

Sellers would need to see a close back below the 200-day SMA to suggest that the bullish view has been negated.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 surge higher on positive outlook

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as the US regulator intends to tighten up on regulations for mid-sized banks and ramp up stress tests.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023 

FTSE 100 nears 7,708 to 7,724 resistance zone

The FTSE 100 rally from last Friday’s 7,331 low has now taken it above its 22 March high on a daily chart closing basis as the UK technically avoided a recession since final fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in stronger than expected at 0.1%.

This and the fact that the index is on track for two consecutive quarterly gains, a pattern not seen in any bear market over the past 50 years, points towards further upside being seen and the advance since October likely being a new bull market and not a bear market rally.

The 7,708 to 7,724 mid-January and early February lows represent the next upside target and need to be overcome on a daily chart closing basis for the February-to-March downtrend line at 7,852 to be reached next.

Slips should find support around the 7,587 22 March high and along the one-month support line at 7,491.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 trades within 1% of this year’s high

The DAX 40 has seen two strong consecutive daily rises over the past couple of days despite German preliminary CPI coming in slightly above expectations on a year-on-year basis at 7.4% in March and despite German retail sales unexpectedly falling by 1.3% month-on-month in February versus an estimate of a 0.5% rise and following a 0.3% drop in February.

The index is thus fast approaching its February and March highs at 15,656 to 15,709, a rise above which would target the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at 16,288 and 16,298.

Support can be found around the 15,304 22 March high and along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,290. Now that two consecutive daily chart closes above the 15,304 level have occurred, the resumption of the October-to-March medium-term uptrend seems to have been confirmed.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 is trading at levels last seen in October 2022

The fact that the Nasdaq 100 managed to close above its previous 12,947 March peak on a daily chart closing basis on Thursday as the US government urged the country’s financial regulator to tighten up recently relaxed legislation in regards to mid-sized banks and undertake more rigorous stress testing of these, is a blessing for the bulls.

The August 2022 high at 13,206 represents the next upside target, ahead of the 13,722 peak.

Support comes in at previous resistance, namely at the February-to-March highs seen between 12,947 and 12,896 as well as along the March uptrend line at 12,748.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 look bid as risk-on sentiment carries on after Easter

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and US March inflation report.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 April 2023 

FTSE 100 nears February-to-April downtrend line

The FTSE 100 continues where it left off before the prolonged Easter weekend, by rising towards the February-to-April downtrend line at 7,814 as risk-on sentiment prevails following a strong session in the US on Monday which pushed most Asian equity indices higher overnight.

Above 7,814 resistance can be spotted between the January high and the late February low at 7,854 to 7,876.

Support below Monday’s intraday low at 7,769 can be found between the 4 April high at 7,728 and the 7,724 to 7,708 mid-January and early February lows.

Provided that this support area holds, further upside looks to be in store for the weeks ahead.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 approaches its 1 ¼ year high

The DAX 40 is approaching levels last traded in January 2022 with the early April peak at 15,742 now within reach as risk-on sentiment continues to propel the index higher.

A rise and daily chart close above 15,742 would put the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at 16,288 and 16,298 on the cards. Minor support can be spotted at the 15,656 early February high.

While last week’s low at 15,481 isn’t being slipped through, the March-to-April uptrend remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 recovers from Monday’s 12,857 low

On Tuesday the Nasdaq 100 is expected to recover further from Monday’s 12,857 low which occurred following Friday’s strong US labour market data which points to further Fed tightening.

Were the index to rise and close on a daily chart closing basis above Monday’s 13,075 Hammer formation daily candlestick high, the early April high at 13,226 would be back in the picture ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes, March US inflation data and earning’s season kicking off on Friday with the likes of JPMorgan and Citigroup.

The 13,226 level was last traded in August 2022, a rise above which would engage the 13,500 region. Minor support can be seen at the 22 March high at 12,947 and along the March-to-April uptrend line at 12,926.

While Monday’s trough at 12,857 holds, the recent one-month uptrend remains in play.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, CAC 40 rally, the latter to a record high, while S&P 500 muted ahead of key data

Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and US March CPI releases.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 April 2023 

FTSE 100 tries to break through its February-to-April downtrend line

The FTSE 100 is trying to break through the February-to-April downtrend line at 7,801 as risk-on sentiment prevails despite market participants awaiting the publication of last month’s FOMC minutes and key US inflation data.

The UK blue chip index looks to be on track for its sixth consecutive day of higher prices with the January high and late February low at 7,854 to 7,876 remaining in focus. This resistance zone may well cap, at least today, though.

Support below Wednesday’s intraday low at 7,776 can be found along the March-to-April uptrend line at 7,746 and also between the 4 April high at 7,728 and the 7,724 to 7,708 mid-January and early February lows.

Provided that the latter support zone holds, further upside remains in play.

Source: ProRealTime

CAC 40 trades in new all-time record highs

The CAC 40 has risen to a new all-time record high, made slightly above the 7,400 mark, despite key US inflation data being published later today.

The index remains in a bullish trend and is gunning for the psychological 7,500 mark whilst being supported by the March-to-April support line at 7,362 and Monday’s low at 7,293. While the latter holds on a daily chart closing basis, the immediate uptrend remains valid with further upside likely to be seen.

Support above these levels comes in between the 7,402 March peak and the minor psychological 7,400 level and early April high.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 awaits US data releases

The S&P 500 has been trading in a very tight, low volume trading range since Tuesday while awaiting the FOMC minutes of the March meeting and the key Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) report which are likely to give investors a clearer picture of whether the Fed is going to hike its rates once more or whether it has already reached its pivot.

While this week’s low at 4,071 underpins on a daily chart closing basis, further upside is expected to take the index to above its 4,141 early April high towards the February peak at 4,195.

Minor resistance on the way up may be encountered at Tuesday’s 4,124 high.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE and DAX march higher but for how long?

The German index rallied to a fresh 15-month high overnight ahead of tonight's release of final German inflation data.

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Indices Recession Inflation DAX FTSE 100 Technical analysis

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 13 April 2023 

A softer open is likely today for key European indices after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes late in the New York Session. The minutes upended an early rally on Wall Street and noted that the banking crisis would likely send the US economy into recession.

"Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years."

Whether the mention of recession will be enough to see the German index end its stellar run in the medium term remains to be seen.

Ahead of the release tonight of final German inflation data, the DAX rallied to a fresh 15-month high overnight and is expected to confirm that inflation fell to 7.4% in March from 8.7% the previous two months.

Additionally, the release of the final PMIs last week indicates robust 1Q 2023 GDP expansion.

Uncomfortably high inflation in the UK (last at 10.4%) and tepid growth prospects mean the FTSE hasn't received the same level of investor support from its March lows as its German counterpart. Tonight sees the February monthly GDP data release which is expected to rise by 0.1% m/m.

Economic growth in the three months to February is forecast to fall -0.1% q/q in Q1 2023.

DAX technical analysis

Another week, another fresh cycle in the DAX!

While we aren't interested in fighting the rally, we doubt its longevity due to the bearish divergence via the RSI indicator and the formation of another bearish or "loss of momentum" type reversal candle at last night's 15,977 high. Our bias remains for a pullback towards an uptrend and horizontal support at 15,000 in the sessions ahead.

Should the DAX see a sustained break below 15,000, it would warn that a deeper pullback is underway towards the March 14,617 low with scope to the 200-day moving average at 14,056.

DAX daily chart

 

Source: TradingView

FTSE technical analysis

In recent sessions, the FTSE has rallied further than expected and broken back above horizontal support 7700 area.

Nonetheless, we continue to view the rally from the March 7206 low is viewed as Wave B or the second wave of a three-wave correction. It is expected a third leg (Wave C) to commence shortly towards support at 7100/7000 in the weeks ahead.

FTSE daily chart

 

Source: TradingView

1. TradingView: the figures stated are as of April 13th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 track Wall Street and Nasdaq 100 higher

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 as earnings season kicks off.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 April 2023 

FTSE 100 gunning for the 8,000 mark

The FTSE 100 has now broken through the February-to-April downtrend line at 7,788 as a surprise decline in US producer prices raised hopes of the Fed nearing the end of its tightening cycle and propelled both US and Asian equity indices higher.

The UK blue chip index has so far risen on seven consecutive days and probes the 7,854 to 7,876 resistance area, made up of the January high and late February low. This resistance zone may cap in the short-term, but once overcome, could lead to the early March high at 7,976 being reached.

Support comes in along the March-to-April uptrend line at 7,810 and also between the 4 April high at 7,728 and the 7,724 to 7,708 mid-January and early February lows. Provided that the latter support zone holds, further medium-term upside is on the cards.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 advances towards its 15-month high

The DAX 40 is rising towards this week’s 15-month high at 15,832 while tracking Wall Street higher, a rise above which would engage the psychological 16,000 mark and then the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at 16,288 and 16,298.

Minor support can be found around the early April peak at 15,742 and along the March-to-April uptrend line at 15,720.

While Thursday’s low at 15,657 holds, short-term upside pressure should prevail.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 rallies on hopes of Fed tightening coming to an end

On Thursday the Nasdaq 100 regained practically all of its Wednesday losses when US March producer prices came in at -0.5% month-on-month versus an expected 0%, leading to hopes that the Fed may move away from its tightening path.

A rise above Wednesday’s high at 13,131 would target the 13,226 early April high as earnings season kicks off on Friday with the likes of JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

The 13,226 level was last traded in August 2022, a rise above which would engage the 13,500 region.

Potential slips may find support around the 22 March high at 12,947 with further minor support coming in along the March-to-April uptrend line at 12,908, ahead of the 10 April low at 12,857 and this week’s trough at 12,819.

While the 12,819 low holds, the March-to-April uptrend remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 continue to advance cautiously

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 following last week’s positive start to the Q1 earnings season and weaker-than-expected US retail sales for March.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 April 2023 

FTSE 100 rises for 8th consecutive day

Last week’s FTSE 100 break through the February-to-April downtrend line has led to the 7,900 region practically being reached with the early March high at 7,976 and the psychological 8,000 mark representing the next upside targets as traders await Tuesday’s UK employment data for February.

Minor support sits between the 7,876 to 7,854 January high and late February low and can also be spotted along the March-to-April uptrend line at 7,840.

While it underpins, further upside looks to be in store.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 pushes for new 15-month high

The DAX 40 is expected to overcome last week’s 15-month high at 15,843 while tracking Wall Street higher after a positive start to the Q1 earnings season with the likes of JPMorgan reporting much better-than-expected earnings on Friday and as the reduction in rate hike probabilities continues to prop up valuations.

The psychological 16,000 mark is likely to be reached soon, above which lurk the November 2021 and January 2022 highs at 16,288 and 16,298.

Minor support below the March-to-April uptrend line at 15,794 can be found around the early April peak at 15,742 and the 15,709 early March high.

While last Thursday’s low at 15,657 isn’t being slipped through, upside momentum should continue.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 benefits from lower rate hike probabilities

On Friday the Nasdaq 100 had a minor wobble as US Q1 earnings season kicked off but then regained all of its intraday losses on a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike probabilities as US retail sales fell by a more than expected 1% in March versus -0.2% in February and an expected drop of 0.4%.

Market players are now pricing in one more Fed 25-basis point fed funds rate hike to 5.00%-5.25%, followed by several months of unchanged rates. 

The Nasdaq managed to briefly reach a high of 13,151 last week, a rise above which would lead to the early April peak at 13,226 being back in focus. This level was last traded in August 2022, an advance above which would target the 13,500 region.

Potential slips may find support along the March-to-April uptrend line at 12,954, ahead of the 10 April low at 12,857 and last week’s low at 12,819.

While the 12,819 level low holds, the March-to-April uptrend remains valid.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and Dow on track for further gains

Indices have held up well as earnings season gets underway in the US, and show no sign of any reversal just yet.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 April 2023 

FTSE 100 toys with 7900

The index’s breakout towards the February highs continued, after it rallied through trendline resistance last week.

The 8000 level and then 8044, the February peak, become the next target in any continued move higher. For the moment, the buyers hold sway, with the price holdings above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

It would require a move back below the 50-day to suggest a period of short-term weakness may develop.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX finally pushing on above February highs

The index has finally managed to close and hold above the February highs.

This then puts it on course to move back towards 16,000 and then 16,285, the highs from Q4 2021. This would mark the complete recovery of 2022’s losses, and leave the index back at an all-time high.

A move back below 15,710, the February high, would signal some short-term weakness, although the uptrend remains firmly intact.

Source: ProRealTime

Dow targets February highs

The breakout from the descending channel continues, and the February high around 34,500 is the next target.

From there, the next target becomes the December high just below 35,000. The breakout from the descending channel reinforces the bullish view, and it would need a reversal back below 33,500 to put the sellers back in charge.

This might then presage a return to 32,000 or lower, towards the lower bound of the channel.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 likely to consolidate

Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 amid stubbornly high UK inflation and Q1 earning’s season.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 

FTSE 100 likely to consolidate after ten consecutive days of rises

The FTSE 100 continued its advance and reached a six-week high at 7,919 on Tuesday despite UK average hourly earnings rising by 5.9% in February instead of an expected 5.1%.

These pointed towards the possibility of another rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE). This view has been strengthened by Wednesday morning’s UK inflation data which came in stronger-than-expected with the headline consumer price index (CPI) at 10.4% year-on-year (YoY) in March versus an expected 9.8% and 10.1% in February.

Core-CPI YoY was seen at 6.2% (versus 6.0% expected), just as in February with monthly CPI rising to 0.8%.

In view of the stubbornly high inflation reading the FTSE 100 is likely to retrace lower, at least short-term, with a fall through Tuesday’s low at 7,881 putting the 7,876 to 7,854 January high and late February low back on the cards.

Were Tuesday’s high at 7,919 to be exceeded, the early March high at 7,976 and the psychological 8,000 mark would be next in line.

Source: ProRealTime

CAC 40 consolidates near all-time record high

The CAC 40 has risen to a new all-time record high on Tuesday, made slightly above the 7,550 mark whilst volatility is dropping off and upside momentum is diminishing.

The index may thus consolidate in the short-term within its bullish trend and is likely to revisit the psychological 7,500 mark once it slips through the March-to-April support line at 7,534.

While Monday’s low at 7,493 holds on a daily chart closing basis, however, the immediate uptrend remains valid with further upside likely to be seen.

A rise above 7,559 would engage the 7,600 region.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 consolidates after reaching two-month high

The S&P 500 has been gradually advancing in a tight trading range since Q1 earnings season kicked off last Friday and came close to but didn’t quite reach its February peak at 4,195 which, together with Tuesday’s high at 4,172, is likely to cap, at least short-term.

Since negative divergence can be spotted on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) with it not confirming Tuesday’s peak, the 4,141 early April high is expected to be retested. Further minor support can be spotted in the 4,125 to 4,111 area, the highs seen between 7 and 11 April.

While last week’s low at 4,071 underpins on a daily chart closing basis, however, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX and Nasdaq 100 make fresh headway

Indices have pushed higher in early trading, which comes despite the warning from Janet Yellen about the US debt ceiling.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023 

FTSE 100 targets 7900

Friday witnessed an impressive recovery from the lows, averting a more bearish view.

It is now up to the bulls to carry momentum forward and on above 7940 in order to point towards a fresh push to the March highs around 8000. From there a move into fresh record highs can be contemplated.

A resurgence of bearish momentum that puts the price back below 7800 would mark the development of a broader retracement.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX pushes on towards 16,000

The index surged on Friday to yet another fresh one-year plus high, and while it is still below 16,000, an ongoing rally could now develop.

This would then target the January 2022 high at 16,288, and from there the index moves to a new record high.

Once more the buyers defended 16,700, so a daily close below this is needed to hint that a new pullback could be underway.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 on the up again

This index too reached a fresh high for the year on Friday, and was able to rise slightly on Monday to a new nine-month peak.

After consolidating in April and dropping back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the price has now recovered and it looks like the buyers are back in control. August 2022’s high at 13,722 now comes into play.

A reversal back below 12,700 is needed to suggest this bullish view is negated and that the sellers have taken charge in the short-term.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 take a hit on US bank failure contagion fears

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and rate hike decision.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 May 2023 

FTSE 100 tracks Wall Street lower

The FTSE 100 tracked US equity indices lower ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (Fed) interest rate decision where a 25-basis point hike, taking the fed funds rate to between 5.00% to 5.25%, is expected.

In doing so, the blue chip index dropped to a three-week low and is approaching the 7,724 to 7,708 late January lows which may act as support. Further down lies the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-April advance at 7,657.

Downside pressure should prevail while Tuesday’s high at 7,897 isn’t being overcome. Below it minor resistance can be spotted at the late February 7,854 low.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 forms interim top around the psychological 16,000 mark

The DAX 40 earlier this week traded at levels last seen in January 2022 around the minor psychological 16,000 mark, buoyed by better-than-expected earnings from big tech in the US, but gave back some of its recent gains ahead of Wednesday’s Fed and Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, at both of which a 25-basis point rate hike is likely to be seen.

Worryingly for the bulls, at least in the short-term, is that this week’s high has not been accompanied by a higher reading of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), meaning that negative divergence is visible. Since in most cases it acts as a precursor to at least a correction against the trend being seen, and sometimes warns of a significant reversal, last week’s low at 15,694 needs to be closely watched.

A fall through and daily chart close below 15,694 would confirm an interim top formation and would push the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 15,505 to the fore as well as the early April low at 15,481.

Immediate resistance can be spotted at the 12 April high at 15,832, followed by the 19 April high at 15,923.

Source: ProRealTime

US regional bank systemic fears spark S&P 500 sell-off

The S&P 500 has come to within a whisker of its 4195 February peak at the beginning of May before rapidly giving back some of its recent gains ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as rumours of another US bank failure sparked contagion fears and led to a sharp sell-off on Tuesday.

The index managed to hold marginally above its March-to-May uptrend line at 4,089, though, a fall through which would lead to the late April low at 4050 being revisited, a drop through which would indicate that a top is being formed.

The negative divergence on the daily RSI also points to possible further consolidation being on the cards this week.

Minor resistance can be seen at the 4 April and 24 April highs at 4,141 to 4,142 and at the 18 April peak at 4,172.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow rise on US debt ceiling optimism

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow ahead of Tuesday’s US debt ceiling negotiations.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 15 May 2023 

FTSE 100 begins week on a stronger footing

The FTSE 100 is seen to recover further from last week’s low at 7,679 and has last week’s high at 7,817 in its sights ahead of Tuesday’s UK unemployment report. If this level were to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis, the UK blue chip index may resume its ascent towards the 8,000 region.

Good support can be spotted between the March-to-May support line at 7,702 and the early and mid-May lows at 7,689 to 7,679 below which the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March advance can be seen at 7,657.

While this area underpins, the odds favour an eventual resumption of the medium-term uptrend.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 is drawn to the psychological 16,000 mark

The DAX 40 remains within its two-month sideways trading range but is once again drawn to its minor psychological 16,000 mark amid the publication of eurozone industrial production data and ahead of Tuesday’s final eurozone Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release.

Only a rise and daily chart close above the early to mid-May highs between 16,005 to 16,009 would put the 2021 to 2023 resistance line at 16,168 on the map.

Slips should find support along the March-to-May tentative uptrend line at 15,822 and below it at last week’s low at 15,756.

While the next lower early May trough at 15,659 holds, this year’s medium-term uptrend will remain intact.

Source: ProRealTime

Optimism around US debt ceiling helps Dow stabilise

While investors remain torn between expectations of a dovish turn from the Fed later this year and the uncertain macro-economic outlook the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to range trade above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 32,783.

Optimism around the US debt ceiling with US president Biden expected to meet House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders on Tuesday to discuss budget negotiations to avoid a default has helped the Dow recover from around its 55-day SMA at 33,142 which offered support last week.

The Dow may thus try to heave itself back up towards last week’s high at 33,782, a rise and daily chart close above which is needed for a bullish medium-term picture to emerge, however.

Good support can be found between the March-to-May support line, 55-day SMA and last week’s low at 33,150 to 33,106.

While the next lower early May low at 32,935 holds on a daily chart closing basis, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to stay intact.

Source: ProRealTime

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Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei move higher but S&P 500 lags behind

While the S&P 500 is still not showing much bullish momentum, the Nasdaq 100 has moved to a new high for the year, and the Nikkei is at highs not seen since Q4 2021.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 16 May 2023 

Nasdaq 100 ekes out new high

The looming debt ceiling crisis does not yet seem to be affecting the Nasdaq 100, which moved back to 13,400 on Monday, to the nine-month high seen last week.

The uptrend is still firmly in place, and a push on towards the August 2022 highs at 13,730 could now be in prospect. Having shown notable strength over the past month, the short- and medium-term bullish views are still intact.

A move below 13,000 might point towards a possible deeper retracement in the short-term.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 stuck below resistance

For this index the August 2022 highs still remain a more distant target, with no notable sign yet that a breakout to the upside is yet in play.

The index finds itself stuck below the late April high, and a close above 4200 still eludes it. This leaves the index in a rather more neutral position than the Nasdaq 100.

A deeper pullback below the April lows around 4050 might target trendline support from the December lows.

Source: ProRealTime

Nikkei 225 hits fresh 2023 high

Impressive gains for this index since the March low have seen it reach a fresh 18-month high.

Trendline support from the March low continues to underpin the index, though having surged over the past three sessions some consolidation might not be surprising.

Additional upside targets the 30,800 level, last seen in September 2021.

Source: ProRealTime

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FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 hope for US debt ceiling agreement

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 22 May 2023 

FTSE 100 remains within a sideways trading range

The FTSE 100 tries to rise back to last week’s high at 7,806 amid ongoing optimism regarding negotiations over the US debt ceiling with US president Biden and Republican leader McCarthy meeting today. A rise and daily chart close above last Tuesday’s high at 7,806 and last week’s high at 7,817 is needed for the bulls to be back in control. An advance above these levels could propel the UK blue chip index towards the 8,000 region. Slips should find support along the March-to-May support line at 7,742 with the early and mid-May lows at 7,689 to 7,679 offering further potential support. A little lower sits the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March advance at 7,657. While this level holds, the medium-term uptrend from the March low remains intact.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 trades close to all-time record highs

The DAX 40 trades close to last week’s all-time record high amid ongoing US debt ceiling negotiations. Upside momentum is slowing ahead of Eurozone consumer confidence data which is expected to be published at 3pm on Monday. Were last week’s peak at 16,333 to be exceeded, the 16,500 region could be targeted next. The only support to speak of below Friday’s low at 16,203 lies between the early to mid-May highs at 16,009 to 16,005.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 comes off its nine-month highs

Last week the S&P 500 managed to rise above its 4,195 February peak to a nine-month high as market sentiment improved. Since then, the index has given back some of its gains as US secretary of the treasury Janet Yellen told bank CEOs that more bank mergers may be necessary and re-emerging worries about the US debt ceiling negotiations dampened the mood. In Monday morning’s overnight session, the S&P 500 revisits its 4,187 early May high which may offer initial support. Below it the early April and 10 May highs at 4,158 to 4,141 may also provide support. A rise and daily chart close above the 4,214 high seen last week would clear the way for the August 2022 peak at 4,325.

Source: ProRealTime

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Dow and CAC40 stabilise while Nasdaq 100 edges down

The Dow and CAC40 have rallied off their Wednesday lows, while the Nasdaq 100 has moved lower after its fourteen-month high earlier in the week.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 June 2023 

Dow holds above 200-day MA

The index saw a rally off the lows of yesterday’s session, defending the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) once again.

However, the overall lower from the highs of May has yet to be disrupted, so further upside would be needed to suggest that a low has been created. A move above 33,230 would help to bolster such a view, and might then open the way to a rebound towards the mid-May high at 33,690.

A reversal below the 200-day SMA opens the way to the low seen last week around 32580.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 edges lower

A drop yesterday saw the index add to its decline from the one-year high hit on Tuesday.

The upward move is still firmly intact, but it may be overextended in the short-term. Trendline support from late April could come into play closer to 14,000. A deeper retracement might develop with a move below 13,700.

A renewed move higher could target the late March 2022 highs at 15,210, but a consolidation after the recent run higher remains a distinct possibility.

Source: ProRealTime

CAC40 hits trendline support

Losses here accelerated to a fresh two-month low yesterday, although it has rallied off the lows of the session.

The longer-term uptrend is still intact, though it has taken a knock since the April peak. A recovery above the 100-day SMA would help to reinforce the view that a higher low is in place, and that a move back to 7600 and potentially higher could be in play.

The price has stabilised around another potential trendline support level from the December lows. Should this hold then the bullish view could receive additional support. Below this the March low at 6785 comes into view.

Source: ProRealTime

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Indices rally as US agrees debt ceiling bill

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as US government agrees to raise the country’s debt ceiling.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 June 2023 

FTSE 100 recovers as US avoids a default

The FTSE 100 is seen bouncing off its two-month low at 4,433 on the back of rallying Asian markets as the US Senate passed the debt ceiling deal which now only needs to be signed into law by President Biden.

The index thus retests its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,532, a rise above which would engage last week’s low at 7,556 and also the 7,587 22 March high.

For the bulls to be back in control, last week’s high at 7,660 would need to be overcome on a daily chart closing basis.

Key short-term support sits at this week’s low at 7,433, a currently unexpected drop through which would target the early January low at 7,412. Below it the December and 24 March lows can be spotted at 7,331 to 7,296.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 rallies on positive news out of the US

The DAX 40 revisited its 55-day SMA at 15,748 as US ADP employment data came in much stronger-than-expected but then bounced off it as the Senate agreed to the debt ceiling deal.

The German stock index is seen breaking through its May-to-June uptrend line at 15,940. It thus targets the early May high at 16,009, followed by last week’s high at 16,080. This level would need to be exceeded for the bulls to be back in the frame.

Support below Friday’s 15,880 intraday low sits at the 15,723 late May low.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 rallies as US debt ceiling deal is signed off

The S&P 500 rallies back to this week’s high at 4,234 as a US debt ceiling deal has been reached. Above this level lies the August 2022 peak at 4,325.

Slips should find support between the 4,187 early May high and the 10 May high at 4,158. Within this area lies this week’s low at 4,167.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices remain bid amid risk-on sentiment

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as the Fed is no longer expected to hike rates at its June meeting.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 05 June 2023 

FTSE 100 nears last week’s high

Towards the end of last week the FTSE 100 bounced off its two-month low at 7,433 as the US agreed to raise its debt ceiling, China was preparing new measures to support its property market and solid US labour data but a higher-than-expected unemployment rate at 3.7% and stabilising wage growth gave the US Federal Reserve (Fed) room for a pause in June. For FTSE 100 bulls to be fully back in control, the high seen a couple of weeks ago at 7,660 would need to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis this week. Above it lie the 7,679 and 7,706 mid-May lows and meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,718. Slips should find around the 26 May low at 7,556 or along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,718.

Source: Bloomberg

DAX 40 flirts with late May high at 16,080

The DAX 40 flirts with its late May high at 16,080, having formed a potentially bullish Hammer formation on the weekly candlestick chart amid broad global risk-on sentiment towards the end of last week. A rise and daily chart close above the 16,080 high would open the way for the May all-time record high at 16,333 to be reached. Minor support only comes in around last Wednesday’s high at 15,928, ahead of the breached May-to-June downtrend line at 15,900.

Source: Bloomberg

S&P 500 trades near Friday’s nine-month high

On Friday, the S&P 500 rallied to a nine-month high at 4,290, close to its August 2022 peak at 4,325, both of which will remain in focus as long as risk-on sentiment prevails. With more and more market participants expecting the Fed not to raise rates at the June meeting and helped by a new Chinese stimulus package for its struggling property market, stock markets continue to look short-term bid. Potential retracements should find good support between the mid- to late May highs at 4,234 to 4,214.

Source: Bloomberg

[MongiIG]

Indices grind higher

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as expectations of a Fed hike in June diminish.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 June 2023 

FTSE 100 approaches last week’s high

The FTSE 100 is making its third attempt at breaking above last week’s high at 7,660 despite UK house prices falling for the first time since 2012. A rise above 7,660 would put the mid-May low at 7,679 on the map. Further up meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,721 which may also be reached in the days to come. Upside momentum should remain in play as long as Tuesday’s low at 7,555 isn’t being slid through on a daily chart closing basis.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 nears the late May high at 16,080

The DAX 40 is trying to reach late May high at 16,080, following Monday’s bullish candlestick formation on the daily chart amid slight broad global risk-on sentiment. A rise and daily chart close above the 16,080 high would target last week’s 16,115 high, above which lies the May all-time record high at 16,333. Minor support sits around last Wednesday’s high and Tuesday’s low at 15,928 to 15,907. While it underpins, further upside may well be seen.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 trades flirts with Monday’s nine-month high

On Monday, the S&P 500 rallied to a nine-month high at 4,299, close to its August 2022 peak at 4,325, both of which will remain in focus as long as risk-on sentiment prevails. With more and more market players expecting the Fed not to raise rates at its June meeting, stock markets continue to look short-term bid. Potential retracements should find minor support at Tuesday’s 4,262 low, below which sits far more significant support between the mid- to late May highs at 4,234 to 4,214.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Levels to watch

After its huge run higher, the Nasdaq 100 has faltered, but the Dow and CAC40 are showing signs of strength.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 June 2023 

Dow makes headway in early trading

The price has managed to rise over the past two days, moving back above the 50-day SMA, bolstered in part by a recovery in oil stocks. Gains faltered in early May around the 37,740 mark, so a move above here and then above 33,900 continues to build a bullish move, supported by the rising 50-day SMA and a bullish MACD. A reversal back below 33,310 would negate this view and risk a return to the 200-day SMA and the lows of late May around 32,700.

Source: ProRealTime

Nasdaq 100 drops back from one-year high

The move higher over the preceding four sessions was broadly negated by Wednesday’s losses. This might point towards a reversal towards the 50-day SMA, though short-term trendline support from late April might also come into play around 14,000. A reversal above 14,500 points the way to some fresh short-term upside.

Source: ProRealTime

CAC40 edges back above 7200

The index struggled on Wednesday as poor Chinese and German data, plus a rate hike by the Canadian central bank, prompted a risk-off mood to prevail in European markets. However, it avoided a move below Tuesday’s lows, and this could provide the foundation for a move higher, with a move above 7300 likely to bolster the bullish outlook. The broader uptrend is still intact, so a higher low for the index would be a bullish development. This view would be negated with a daily close below 7100.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Indices recover ahead of this week’s key inflation data and central bank meetings

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of this week’s US inflation data and several central bank meetings.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 June 2023 

FTSE 100 recovers from last week’s lows

The FTSE 100 recovers from last week’s lows but so far remains below its May-to-June downtrend line at 7,610 ahead of Tuesday’s UK unemployment and Wednesday’s GDP and industrial production data. While Friday’s low at 7,546 underpins, the late May and current June highs at 7,655 to 7,660 may still be reached, though. Minor support above this level can be spotted at last Tuesday’s 7,555 low. Resistance above May to June downtrend line at 7,610 lies at Friday’s high at 7,619.

Source: ProRealTime

DAX 40 once more tries to head higher

The DAX 40 is trying to reach last Wednesday’s high at 16,048 before the publication of Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment data for June on Tuesday. Above this level beckons the late May high at 16,080. An advance and daily chart close above the 16,080 high would eye last week’s 16,115 high, above which lies the May all-time record high at 16,333. As long as Thursday’s low at 15,886 underpins, further upside is likely to unfold.

Source: ProRealTime

S&P 500 is on track to reach Monday’s nine-month high

On Friday, the S&P 500 rallied to a nine-month high at 4,322, close to its August 2022 peak at 4,325, as traders await this week’s US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June rate decision. With the majority of traders believing that the Fed is to leave its rates unchanged at its June meeting, risk-on sentiment remains in play. The August peak at 4,325 zone will remain in sight as long as no slip through Thursday’s low at 4,257 occurs. Potential support comes in along the wedge support line at 4,290, a fall through which may have potentially bearish implications, however. Below it and last week’s 4,257 low, significant support can be spotted between the mid- to late May highs at 4,234 to 4,214.

Source: ProRealTime