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Gold price and oil price both edge lower

Gold has stalled in its move upwards while oil is continuing to head lower for the time being.

BG_gold_2309487230948.pngSource: Bloomberg
 
Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 16 July 2021. IG

Gold

Despite signs of caution earlier in the week the gold price has recovered and moved to a new one month high. It has even topped the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1826.

While some weakness has been seen this morning there are few signs of a reversal as yet, which would develop with a drop below $1810. Further gains target the 50-day SMA at $1837, and then on to $1863.

Gold_160721.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

The price continues to drop back, having come under pressure, but the uptrend is still firmly intact. A further decline towards the 50-day SMA is possible, but would still create a higher low.

Meanwhile, short-term trendline resistance from the peak would suggest resistance around $73.80 in the event of any recovery in coming sessions.

WTI_160721.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold stumbles as oil edges down

Gold prices are attempting to recover from the recent downward move, while oil’s current pullback has reached the 50-day moving average.

BG_resized_gold_2161981981.jpgSource: Bloomberg
Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 
 

Gold

Gold's rally has encountered a serious check, stalling at $1830 and dropping back towards $1800.

This is a possible lower high, but it may still be too early to tell. Further declines below $1800 would reinforce the negative view, while a bounce back above $1815 would begin to provide hope that the brief pullback is at an end.

Gold_190721.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil has returned to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $69.90, after a run higher from late May that saw it reach fresh three-year highs.

This retracement establishes a potential higher low in due course, since the uptrend is firmly intact. Further declines below $69.90 would head towards $67.85 and then $65.46.

WTI_190721.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and Brent crude weakening after initial rebound

Gold and Brent crude are losing traction following a period of stabilisation in the wake of Monday’s declines.

BG_gold_2161981981.pngSource: Bloomberg
Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 20 July 2021 

 

Gold losing traction as it attempts to recover

Gold fell back into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level yesterday, with the price turning upwards from marginally above the prior swing-high of $1791.

While that managed to stave off a bearish breakdown signal, there is a risk of another move lower as price turns lower here. As such, the outlook will be better determined by a break through either $1791 (bearish) or $1834 (bullish).

XAUUSD-4-hours20721.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude easing back after initial Fibonacci support rebound

Brent crude found support on the 76.4% Fibonacci support level yesterday, following a sharp decline at the start of the week.

While that rebound did start to gain some traction at first, we are seeing some selling pressure come into play here. As such, the ability to remain above that $67.60 level will be key to determining where we go from here.

LCO-4-hours20721.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold’s bounce stalls as oil recovers

Expectations of more gains in gold have been stymied, while oil prices have made further gains after stabilising yesterday.

r_BG_gold_bar_098098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 July 2021 

Gold

Hopes of a rebound in gold have been dashed after Tuesday’s session saw the price retreat from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1825, simultaneously failing to hold the highs of the session.

While a full-blown retracement has yet to develop it does look rather unpromising for the longs; a rally back above $1820 would help to revive the bullish view, while sellers expect further declines below $1800 that will strengthen the bearish case.

Gold_210721.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

Oil found its footing yesterday, recovering from a brief trip below Monday’s low.

It continues to hold above the 100-day SMA ($66.52), giving hope for bulls that a higher low can be formed, with a new push back to the early July highs contemplated in due course. This view is negated if the price reverses course and falls back below $65.

WTI_210721.pngSource: ProRealTime
 
 
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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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Zinc, copper and aluminium prices at risk as China plans sale of strategic reserves

China plans to auction reserves of copper, zinc, and aluminium in a bid to drive down prices. Will this result in another leg lower after recent declines?

China flagSource: Bloomberg
 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 July 2021 

China plans to auction key commodities in a bid to drive down prices

Recent talk that the Chinese will release reserves of key commodities to the market have provided another reason to temper bullish sentiment for one of the biggest areas of upside seen throughout 2020.

Chinese demand has been a key driver of gains in commodity prices, yet that rise in underlying input prices have ultimately led to a situation where growth is being stifled as a result.

Thus, today's announcement from China is just the latest in a protracted attack on key commodity valuations, with the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials opting to auction 170,000 tonnes of metals from state reserves on 29 July.

That consists of 30,000 tonnes of copper, 90,000 tonnes of aluminium and 50,000 tonnes of zinc. With that in mind, we could see some further selling pressure come into play as we move forward.

With that in mind, it is worthwhile looking at these assets to gauge whether they are at risk of a bearish reversal or simply set to maintain the bullish momentum established last year.

China commods demandSource: visualcapitalist.com

 

Zinc

Zinc is one commodity that appears to be at risk here, with price having broken down through trendline support back in mid-June. That raises the risk that the subsequent rebound falls short of the prior high.

With that seemingly having occurred as the zinc price rolls over from the 76.4% Fibonacci zone, there is a chance we could see another leg lower from here.

Watch for a decline through the $2.904 support level for that bearish momentum to come into play.

Zinc chartSource: ProRealTime

 

Copper

A similar breakdown through trendline support for copper prices highlights the potential for a deeper decline going forward. Despite that trendline breakdown, the uptrend remains intact given the pattern of higher lows.

That highlights the importance of the 76.4% Fibonacci level, which has provided the absolute low of this pullback thus far ($4.0958). However, while price initially rallied from that level of support, we have subsequently seen the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level drive price down once again.

That decline could take us back into the wider $4.0945 low from June, which would provide a key hurdle to overcome is the bears are to remain in charge. As such, watch for further short-term downside, with a rise through the $4.599 level required to bring about a more positive outlook.

However, we would require a move below $3.8505 to bring a wider reversal signal for this key commodity.

 

Copper chartSource: ProRealTime

 

Aluminium

Aluminium prices have been unaffected by today’s news thus far, with initial weakness being recovered. The risk-off moves seen this week led to a break below the $2432 level.

However, that does not necessarily end the recent bullish trend, with a break back below $2355 required for such a wider bearish picture to come into play.

Until then, there is a good chance we see the price turn higher from this deep retracement to continue the bullish pattern seen over recent months.

Aluminium chartSource: ProRealTime

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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Gold declines as oil price makes headway

Gold is still edging lower but oil is enjoying strong gains.

BG_gold_2309487230948.pngSource: Bloomberg
Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 
 
 

The gold price continues to drop back, although without much enthusiasm.

A move below $1795 is still needed to develop a more bearish view, while a recovery above $1810 would begin to suggest another push towards $1830 is in the offing.

Gold_220721.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent

Yesterday’s sharp rebound carried the price back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $71.99, and was accompanied by a bullish stochastic crossover which reinforces the bullish view and the higher low from earlier in this week.

Further gains head towards trendline resistance from the July high. The bearish view has been negated with Wednesday’s bounce for the time being.

Brent_220721.pngSource: ProRealTime
 
 
 
 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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Gold price attempts to bounce as oil maintains upward move

Gold is aiming to recover lost ground while oil is targeting further gains.

BG_gold_2161981981.pngSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021 

Gold

The continued defence of the area around $1800 points to a possible recovery for gold that will target $1830 and higher.

It will be hard to develop a more bearish view unless the price does manage to clear $1790.

Gold_230721.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI

Like indices, crude seems set for further gains, with some resistance from the July high unlikely to last long.

Above $73 the price targets the month’s high at $76.47.

WTI_230721.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold looks to break higher as oil price consolidates following gains

Gold is looking to make headway while oil is consolidating following its recent surge.

BG_gold_2161981981.pngSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 26 July 2021 

Gold tests trendline support

The gold price dipped into the zone below $1800 last week but found buyers, providing a floor, but a firm break above the downtrend line seen since 15 July has yet to take place.

It is however testing the line in early trading, and above $1815 the price takes on a more bullish view. Sellers will be shut out of the picture unless they can get the price back below $1790.

Gold_260721.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI at a crucial point

Having surged from last week’s low the price is now edging back down, as the sequence of lower highs from earlier in the month comes back into play.

A move back above $72.70 would be a bullish development, and then open the way to more gains towards $75 and $77. Sellers will look for a move back below $70 that opens the path towards the recent lows.

WTI_260721.pngSource: ProRealTime

 
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Gold falls back into support as Brent crude pushes into Fibonacci resistance

Gold falls back into key support, while Brent crude has rallied up into Fibonacci resistance in its bid to regain previous highs.

BG_gold_2309487230948.pngSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 27 July 2021 

Gold drifts back into key support level

Gold has been on the back foot once again, with price moving back into the key $1790 support level. A break below that level would bring a bearish picture into play following a period of consolidation.

However, with price typically managing to post a short rebound from this level, it is worthwhile expecting another move higher until we see $1790 break.

XAUUSD-4-hours27721.pngSource: ProRealTime

 

Brent crude rallies back into Fibonacci resistance

Brent crude has been on the rise since a pullback into the wider 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at $67.60. That rally has brought us back into yet another 76.4% level at $74.12. The wider uptrend points towards a likely push up through this level in a bid to regain the previous peaks of $76.30 and $77.57.

However, whether that will come in a straight line remains to be seen. For now, we need to see whether price respects that Fibonacci resistance level or simply pushes through.

To the downside, any pullback would need to break the $72.14 level to bring a more bearish short-term outlook. Until then, there is a good chance we see further upside come into play.

LCO-4-hours27721.pngSource: ProRealTime

 
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