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Gold losing its shine as natural gas prices start to push higher but Brent continues to struggle

Gold starts to weaken as natural gas regains lost ground. Brent crude continues to struggle for direction amid a plethora of potential key driving forces.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 November 2022 

Gold starts to turn lower after latest surge

Gold has enjoyed a period of recovery over the course of November thus far, with the index climbing 10% over a fortnight.

However, we are starting to see some of that momentum wane here, with the declines seen across equity markets yesterday feeding through into sentiment for gold.

It is worthwhile noting the fact that gold has been largely trading in line with risk assets, meaning that this market should continue to perform well if indices rise and the dollar drops. A reversion to the more commonly found trend of dollar strength and equity weakness would likely serve to drive gold lower once again.

With that in mind, much of the sentiment here is driven by risk attitudes elsewhere in financial markets. The recent rebound for gold provided us with a double bottom formation, signalling the potential for further upside upon breaking the $1729 level.

However, the $1808 level represents the next major hurdle to overcome if we are to truly believe this 2022 downtrend is over. Thus far we are seeing momentum turn somewhat, signalling the potential for a move lower here. A move below the 80 threshold on the stochastic would provide us with a sell signal.

Meanwhile, further upside is certainly a possibility, although a break through $1808 would bring greater confidence that bullish sentiment can be sustained.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude back into support as market struggles for direction

Brent crude has been struggling to establish any conviction of late, with the recovery phase seen in October faltering at the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level.

However, rather than breaking lower once again, we are seeing price move largely sideways ever since. As things stand, the $91.17 level appears to be restricting any further downside, with a break below that level bringing $87.98 into play. A move below $87.98 or above $98.54 could potentially kick things back into life.

Nonetheless, there are a number of factors which could swing sentiment in one direction or another, and until one comes to the fore it seems we are likely to lack any major impetus for crude.

Crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas turns upwards from trendline support

Natural gas has started to drive upwards once again today, following on from a sharp pullback from $7.261 resistance.

The ability to push through that resistance level would be key here, signalling the end of the bearish trajectory seen over the course of August-October.

As such, further upside looks likely here, although it will take a push through $7.261 to bring greater confidence that the bulls are back in charge.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold moves higher but oil and gas come under selling pressure

Gold has clawed some of the losses of previous sessions but oil and natural gas are falling again.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 November 2022 

Gold edges up

The price has edged back over the last two days, helping to correct some of its extended status.

But the bounce of the past two weeks is still intact, even if the price has faltered for now at resistance at $1787. A fresh attempt to move above this level and beyond then targets the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1802, and on towards $1830.

Should the retracement deepen, then $1722 becomes the next level to watch as possible support.

Gold_181122.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI heads back to $82

Two sharp days of losses have put the price back to the $82 zone, which was briefly support on the way up in October.

Continued declines bring the $76.50 low from September back into view as the next major area of support. Below this a new lower low will be created, reinforcing the view that oil is in a downtrend.

Sellers have been firmly in charge over the last two sessions, and it would need a move above the 50-day SMA ($85.47) to suggest that the declines have paused for now.

WTI_181122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas slumps after hitting the 50-day MA

The price has returned to the 50-day SMA, potentially setting up a fresh turn lower.

Yesterday saw the gains of the past four sessions culminate in a return to the 50-day SMA (currently 4729). The price has now dropped back, and a further decline below 6200 could reinforce the view that a new move lower is developing.

Should the upward move resume, then the price may push on towards the 200-day SMA (6985) and then on to 7100, where recent gains have been capped.

Gas_181122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and Brent crude lose traction as natural gas grinds higher

Gold and Brent crude head lower, with recent gains starting to fade. Meanwhile, natural gas continues to grind higher, as traders keep an eye out for European weather effects.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 November 2022

Gold continues to weaken after recent rebound

Gold has been on the back foot over much of the past week, with the precious metal losing traction after a period of upside that brought about a three-month high last week.

However, with price still yet to break through the crucial $1808 resistance level, the wider trend of lower highs does still remain in play here.

With that in mind, there was always a heightened chance that we see price turn lower before long, with the recent topping out in the MACD histogram signalling the potential for such a loss of momentum.

The stochastic looks likely to break back down through the 80 threshold here, signalling that there may be further downside to come from here.

To the downside, $1735 represents the first major hurdle to overcome.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude breaks support to bring bearish continuation signal

Brent crude has finally shown its hand following a period of consolidation that brought significant uncertainty for crude.

While there are plenty of reasons why we could see Brent come into strength down the line, we are clearly yet to see markets attach enough importance to move the dial.

Instead, we have seen the bears come back into play, as the prospect of a drawn-out recessionary environment, and continued Covid restrictions in China dampen the demand outlook.

Last week saw price finally break lower, with the move through $91.17 giving way to send price back through the more important $87.98 swing-low.

Coming off the back of a 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, this signals a high likeliness of sending price back down into the $82.65 low to continue the downtrend that has dominated the past six months.

Brent crudeSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas likely to continue its recovery after decline into support

Natural gas has been on the rise since the upside turn seen around the $5.329 support level back in October. That recovery phase looks likely to continue from here, with price grinding higher above the ascending trendline.

Quite whether we will see another major spike this winter remains to be seen, with European supplies looking to benefit from a relatively mild winter thus far.

However, it is worthwhile noting that this could change if forecasts signal the potential for a cold snap. Until then, this recovery is a relatively calm affair, with further upside looking likely unless price breaks back below the $5.898 support level.

Natural gasSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and natural gas show signs of strength

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas show signs of strength, although questions remain as the dollar returns to strength.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 November 2022 

Gold finds support on previous peak

Gold has managed to halt its decline today, with the drop into $1734 support bringing about a more positive tone today. That level represents the mid-September peak, with price attempting to move higher here.

The recent push through $1720 and $1735 resistance completed a double bottom formation that heightened the chance that we have seen the bottom for this precious metal. However, a push through $1808 would certainly provide greater confidence that such a reversal has taken shape here.

For now, the ability to rebound from this previous breakout zone between $1720 and $1735 is key to setting sentiment over the near-term.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_11_22-08h54.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude pops higher after Saudi comments

Brent crude has been on the back foot over the past week, with price falling back into the key $82.53 support level yesterday.

However, that decline has been swiftly reversed thanks to comments from the Saudi Energy Minister who rebuffed reports that the country was considering a 500 000 barrel per day (bpd) increase in output along with other OPEC producers. Instead, he stated that they stood ready to cut production further if need be, underlining their desire to see higher oil prices.

The rise we have seen completed a strong reversal candle, with price reversing all of its losses to close at the top of the day’s range. We are subsequently moving higher, with a short-term rebound looking likely.

With the stochastics turning upwards from oversold, it therefore looks likely that we will see short-term gains here. As such, a near-term move higher does seem likely, although a break through either $96.16 or $82.53 would be required to bring greater confidence over where we go beyond any short-term move.

LCO-Daily-2022_11_22-09h02.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas turns lower after latest rebound

Natural gas enjoyed a nice move higher yesterday, with the commodity continuing to push upwards over the course of the past month.

The ascending trendline propping up this phase will be important as we see price drift lower, with the losses today looking likely to be short-term in nature. With that in mind, short-term downside looks to bring another potential trendline rebound into play as we push higher.

A break below the $5.898 level would be required to bring an end to this bullish phase.

NG-Daily-2022_11_22-09h13.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil struggle as natural gas makes headway

Gold has seen its move higher ended for now, while oil prices are relatively quiet. Natural gas continues to rally, however.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 November 2022 

Gold sees bullish momentum ebb away

Gains have stalled, with the price hovering just above a two-week low.

The reversal from the highs of November leaves the bounce intact, and the price remains above the $1730 highs of September and October, providing a continued bullish view.

It would require a reversal below these levels and then below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) to open the path to more downside.

Gold_231122.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI edges up

After falling sharply earlier in the week the price has clambered higher, but remains under pressure.

Monday’s rebound saw the price bounce back from support and then edge up slightly. This momentum has continued in the short-term, but a move above $83.80 will be needed to provide a more firm foundation for further gains.

A renewed decline below $80 brings the September low into play once again, down towards $76.50.

WTI_231122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas soars

Prices have been on a tear here, rallying sharply over the past two weeks to their highest level in two months.

For the moment bullish momentum remains strong, and the price seems on course to push on above 8000. A reversal below 7500 might suggest some consolidation was likely.

Sellers would need to see a drop back below the 200-day SMA to suggest that a fresh move lower was at hand.

Gas_231122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold turns higher as Brent crude and natural gas start to reverse lower.

Gold on the rise after finding new support, while Brent crude and natural gas start to give back recent gains.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 November 2022 

Gold attempts to turn upwards from key support

Gold has been finding its feet once again following a decline into the $1729 support level yesterday. That previous peak represents the neckline of a double bottom formation, with price appearing to respect it as new support.

From a long-term perspective, the question over whether we are looking at the beginning of the next bull market will come down to how quickly and consistently inflation can come down from here. However, things do appear to have turned a corner after rising through trendline and $1729 resistance.

With that in mind, there is a good chance we see further gains here as we build on that bullish turn. A move back through $1615 is needed to resume the bearish trajectory.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_11_24-08h21.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude turns lower once again

Brent crude turned sharply lower once again yesterday, with price reversing lower to unwind Monday's rebound in the wake of the comments by the Saudi Energy minister.

While he stated that OPEC could cut production further if needed, markets are clearly more concerned with the latest surge in Chinese Covid cases, and its impact on demand.

Meanwhile, comments from the US Energy Envoy Hochstein have stated that they would look to repurchase oil once prices return to the $70 region. That provides us with an area where the US shifts back into buying mode, providing support if prices fall that far.

For now, the ability to break through $82.30 will be key, with the wider 76.4% Fibonacci support level below that ($81.25). Whether or not we can break support tells us a lot about whether we continue this wider bearish trajectory.

LCO-Daily-2022_11_24-08h34.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas breaks higher from trendline support

Natural gas managed to surge into a two-month high yesterday, with price following through on the latest trendline pullback.

Today does seem to be taking a somewhat different tone, with price turning lower after yesterday's inability to sustain its gains.

With price having broken through the $7.261 resistance level, any near-term downside would look to provide a fresh retracement before price turns upwards once again. Thus, it looks like we could see price weaken over the near-term as price starts to give back some of its recent gains.

Nonetheless, unless price breaks through the $5.898 level, such a pullback looks short-term in nature.

NG-Daily-2022_11_24-08h48.pngSource: ProRealTime
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