News and Trade Ideas (Commodities)

[MongiIG]

Gold losing its shine as natural gas prices start to push higher but Brent continues to struggle

Gold starts to weaken as natural gas regains lost ground. Brent crude continues to struggle for direction amid a plethora of potential key driving forces.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Gold Market sentiment Brent Crude Natural gas Gas

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 17 November 2022 

Gold starts to turn lower after latest surge

Gold has enjoyed a period of recovery over the course of November thus far, with the index climbing 10% over a fortnight.

However, we are starting to see some of that momentum wane here, with the declines seen across equity markets yesterday feeding through into sentiment for gold.

It is worthwhile noting the fact that gold has been largely trading in line with risk assets, meaning that this market should continue to perform well if indices rise and the dollar drops. A reversion to the more commonly found trend of dollar strength and equity weakness would likely serve to drive gold lower once again.

With that in mind, much of the sentiment here is driven by risk attitudes elsewhere in financial markets. The recent rebound for gold provided us with a double bottom formation, signalling the potential for further upside upon breaking the $1729 level.

However, the $1808 level represents the next major hurdle to overcome if we are to truly believe this 2022 downtrend is over. Thus far we are seeing momentum turn somewhat, signalling the potential for a move lower here. A move below the 80 threshold on the stochastic would provide us with a sell signal.

Meanwhile, further upside is certainly a possibility, although a break through $1808 would bring greater confidence that bullish sentiment can be sustained.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude back into support as market struggles for direction

Brent crude has been struggling to establish any conviction of late, with the recovery phase seen in October faltering at the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level.

However, rather than breaking lower once again, we are seeing price move largely sideways ever since. As things stand, the $91.17 level appears to be restricting any further downside, with a break below that level bringing $87.98 into play. A move below $87.98 or above $98.54 could potentially kick things back into life.

Nonetheless, there are a number of factors which could swing sentiment in one direction or another, and until one comes to the fore it seems we are likely to lack any major impetus for crude.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas turns upwards from trendline support

Natural gas has started to drive upwards once again today, following on from a sharp pullback from $7.261 resistance.

The ability to push through that resistance level would be key here, signalling the end of the bearish trajectory seen over the course of August-October.

As such, further upside looks likely here, although it will take a push through $7.261 to bring greater confidence that the bulls are back in charge.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold moves higher but oil and gas come under selling pressure

Gold has clawed some of the losses of previous sessions but oil and natural gas are falling again.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 November 2022 

Gold edges up

The price has edged back over the last two days, helping to correct some of its extended status.

But the bounce of the past two weeks is still intact, even if the price has faltered for now at resistance at $1787. A fresh attempt to move above this level and beyond then targets the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1802, and on towards $1830.

Should the retracement deepen, then $1722 becomes the next level to watch as possible support.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI heads back to $82

Two sharp days of losses have put the price back to the $82 zone, which was briefly support on the way up in October.

Continued declines bring the $76.50 low from September back into view as the next major area of support. Below this a new lower low will be created, reinforcing the view that oil is in a downtrend.

Sellers have been firmly in charge over the last two sessions, and it would need a move above the 50-day SMA ($85.47) to suggest that the declines have paused for now.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas slumps after hitting the 50-day MA

The price has returned to the 50-day SMA, potentially setting up a fresh turn lower.

Yesterday saw the gains of the past four sessions culminate in a return to the 50-day SMA (currently 4729). The price has now dropped back, and a further decline below 6200 could reinforce the view that a new move lower is developing.

Should the upward move resume, then the price may push on towards the 200-day SMA (6985) and then on to 7100, where recent gains have been capped.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude lose traction as natural gas grinds higher

Gold and Brent crude head lower, with recent gains starting to fade. Meanwhile, natural gas continues to grind higher, as traders keep an eye out for European weather effects.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Brent Crude Gold Price Natural gas Gas

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 November 2022

Gold continues to weaken after recent rebound

Gold has been on the back foot over much of the past week, with the precious metal losing traction after a period of upside that brought about a three-month high last week.

However, with price still yet to break through the crucial $1808 resistance level, the wider trend of lower highs does still remain in play here.

With that in mind, there was always a heightened chance that we see price turn lower before long, with the recent topping out in the MACD histogram signalling the potential for such a loss of momentum.

The stochastic looks likely to break back down through the 80 threshold here, signalling that there may be further downside to come from here.

To the downside, $1735 represents the first major hurdle to overcome.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude breaks support to bring bearish continuation signal

Brent crude has finally shown its hand following a period of consolidation that brought significant uncertainty for crude.

While there are plenty of reasons why we could see Brent come into strength down the line, we are clearly yet to see markets attach enough importance to move the dial.

Instead, we have seen the bears come back into play, as the prospect of a drawn-out recessionary environment, and continued Covid restrictions in China dampen the demand outlook.

Last week saw price finally break lower, with the move through $91.17 giving way to send price back through the more important $87.98 swing-low.

Coming off the back of a 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, this signals a high likeliness of sending price back down into the $82.65 low to continue the downtrend that has dominated the past six months.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas likely to continue its recovery after decline into support

Natural gas has been on the rise since the upside turn seen around the $5.329 support level back in October. That recovery phase looks likely to continue from here, with price grinding higher above the ascending trendline.

Quite whether we will see another major spike this winter remains to be seen, with European supplies looking to benefit from a relatively mild winter thus far.

However, it is worthwhile noting that this could change if forecasts signal the potential for a cold snap. Until then, this recovery is a relatively calm affair, with further upside looking likely unless price breaks back below the $5.898 support level.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas show signs of strength

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas show signs of strength, although questions remain as the dollar returns to strength.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 22 November 2022 

Gold finds support on previous peak

Gold has managed to halt its decline today, with the drop into $1734 support bringing about a more positive tone today. That level represents the mid-September peak, with price attempting to move higher here.

The recent push through $1720 and $1735 resistance completed a double bottom formation that heightened the chance that we have seen the bottom for this precious metal. However, a push through $1808 would certainly provide greater confidence that such a reversal has taken shape here.

For now, the ability to rebound from this previous breakout zone between $1720 and $1735 is key to setting sentiment over the near-term.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude pops higher after Saudi comments

Brent crude has been on the back foot over the past week, with price falling back into the key $82.53 support level yesterday.

However, that decline has been swiftly reversed thanks to comments from the Saudi Energy Minister who rebuffed reports that the country was considering a 500 000 barrel per day (bpd) increase in output along with other OPEC producers. Instead, he stated that they stood ready to cut production further if need be, underlining their desire to see higher oil prices.

The rise we have seen completed a strong reversal candle, with price reversing all of its losses to close at the top of the day’s range. We are subsequently moving higher, with a short-term rebound looking likely.

With the stochastics turning upwards from oversold, it therefore looks likely that we will see short-term gains here. As such, a near-term move higher does seem likely, although a break through either $96.16 or $82.53 would be required to bring greater confidence over where we go beyond any short-term move.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas turns lower after latest rebound

Natural gas enjoyed a nice move higher yesterday, with the commodity continuing to push upwards over the course of the past month.

The ascending trendline propping up this phase will be important as we see price drift lower, with the losses today looking likely to be short-term in nature. With that in mind, short-term downside looks to bring another potential trendline rebound into play as we push higher.

A break below the $5.898 level would be required to bring an end to this bullish phase.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil struggle as natural gas makes headway

Gold has seen its move higher ended for now, while oil prices are relatively quiet. Natural gas continues to rally, however.

Source: Bloomberg

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 November 2022 

Gold sees bullish momentum ebb away

Gains have stalled, with the price hovering just above a two-week low.

The reversal from the highs of November leaves the bounce intact, and the price remains above the $1730 highs of September and October, providing a continued bullish view.

It would require a reversal below these levels and then below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) to open the path to more downside.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI edges up

After falling sharply earlier in the week the price has clambered higher, but remains under pressure.

Monday’s rebound saw the price bounce back from support and then edge up slightly. This momentum has continued in the short-term, but a move above $83.80 will be needed to provide a more firm foundation for further gains.

A renewed decline below $80 brings the September low into play once again, down towards $76.50.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas soars

Prices have been on a tear here, rallying sharply over the past two weeks to their highest level in two months.

For the moment bullish momentum remains strong, and the price seems on course to push on above 8000. A reversal below 7500 might suggest some consolidation was likely.

Sellers would need to see a drop back below the 200-day SMA to suggest that a fresh move lower was at hand.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold turns higher as Brent crude and natural gas start to reverse lower.

Gold on the rise after finding new support, while Brent crude and natural gas start to give back recent gains.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 November 2022 

Gold attempts to turn upwards from key support

Gold has been finding its feet once again following a decline into the $1729 support level yesterday. That previous peak represents the neckline of a double bottom formation, with price appearing to respect it as new support.

From a long-term perspective, the question over whether we are looking at the beginning of the next bull market will come down to how quickly and consistently inflation can come down from here. However, things do appear to have turned a corner after rising through trendline and $1729 resistance.

With that in mind, there is a good chance we see further gains here as we build on that bullish turn. A move back through $1615 is needed to resume the bearish trajectory.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude turns lower once again

Brent crude turned sharply lower once again yesterday, with price reversing lower to unwind Monday's rebound in the wake of the comments by the Saudi Energy minister.

While he stated that OPEC could cut production further if needed, markets are clearly more concerned with the latest surge in Chinese Covid cases, and its impact on demand.

Meanwhile, comments from the US Energy Envoy Hochstein have stated that they would look to repurchase oil once prices return to the $70 region. That provides us with an area where the US shifts back into buying mode, providing support if prices fall that far.

For now, the ability to break through $82.30 will be key, with the wider 76.4% Fibonacci support level below that ($81.25). Whether or not we can break support tells us a lot about whether we continue this wider bearish trajectory.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas breaks higher from trendline support

Natural gas managed to surge into a two-month high yesterday, with price following through on the latest trendline pullback.

Today does seem to be taking a somewhat different tone, with price turning lower after yesterday's inability to sustain its gains.

With price having broken through the $7.261 resistance level, any near-term downside would look to provide a fresh retracement before price turns upwards once again. Thus, it looks like we could see price weaken over the near-term as price starts to give back some of its recent gains.

Nonetheless, unless price breaks through the $5.898 level, such a pullback looks short-term in nature.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas at risk on Chinese concerns

Gold, Brent crude, and natural gas at risk of losing ground as concerns over Chinese demand grow.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 November 2022 

Gold attempting to rise once more after latest pullback

Gold has been turning higher since finding support on the key $1729 support level last week. That level represents the prior breakout signal which formed a double bottom formation earlier this month.

However, while we have seen the price of gold moving higher as markets regain lost ground, the worry is that we will be reliant on further risk-on sentiment to drive this market higher.

The effects of the extended Chinese lockdowns could bring potential weakness for stocks, thus hurting gold. However, quite whether the weekend protests lead to more draconian measures or see the government soften their stance remains to be seen.

For gold, keep an eye out for whether we see price break up through $1786 or back below that $1729 as a signal of where we go from here.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude breaks support as demand concerns grow

Brent crude is similarly under the microscope today, with Chinese lockdowns bringing demand concerns following a period of optimism over previous reopening plans.

The loosening of contact and travel restrictions has been largely cast aside in the face of rising cases and apparent expansions of quarantine facilities.

The break back below $82.65 has subsequently taken price back into the wider 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $81.26. That does highlight the existence of the wider downtrend in play for this market.

Keep an eye out for whether price rebounds or breaks back below that support level as a signal or sentiment for the period ahead.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas reversing back towards trendline support

Natural gas has been heading lower since Wednesday’s peak of $8.00, with price starting to give back some of the gains evident in the first half of last week.

The ascending trendline support evident down below does provide a potential target for the bears, with the recent recovery phase looking likely to continue before long. As such, the short-term picture points towards further downside, with the bulls likely to come back into play from trendline support.

A break back below the recent swing-low of $5.898 would be required to negate the bullish phase playing out over the course of the past month.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, US natural gas and gold bounce on sliding US dollar

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas amid a sliding US dollar.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 29 November 2022 

Brent crude oil bounces off $80 region

Brent crude oil has bounced off a near one-year low close to the $80 mark after consultancy firm Eurasia Group suggested that weaker Chinese demand could spur OPEC+ to cut output.

Since the beginning of November, the price of oil has nearly dropped by 20% as China remains mired in tough Covid-19 restrictions and as the risks of a global recession are mounting with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) nonetheless sticking to its tightening path.

The current bounce off yesterday’s low at $80.81, a level last traded in January, has taken the price of Brent crude oil out of its November downtrend channel towards Friday’s high at $86.88, above which lurks the $87.99 mid-October low.

While the next higher $89.30 22 November high isn’t overcome, Brent remains in a downtrend since a series of lower highs and lower lows can be seen.

Minor support sits between the late September trough and the 21 November low at $82.55 to $82.32 and more significant support at Monday’s $80.81 low.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold steadies above key support zone

Gold’s recovery from last week petered out at Monday’s $1,763 per troy ounce high with the precious metal slipping back towards its $1,735 to $1,727 key support area amid a short-term recovery in the US dollar.

With the greenback slipping back again early on Tuesday, the price of gold is heading back up towards its recent high at $1,763. Further up the November peak can be spotted at $1,786 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,797.

Failure at Monday’s $1,740 low would put the $1,735 to $1,727 support area back on the map.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures oscillate around the 200-day SMA

US natural gas futures have come off last week’s two-month peak at $8.096 and slid to Monday’s low at $6.930 on global recession fears and China’s lockdowns.

On Tuesday morning the front month futures contract traded back above the 200-day SMA at $7.092 and may revisit the $7.323 early November high. Were this not to cap, the minor psychological $8.000 mark may be back in focus.

On the flipside a drop through Monday’s $6.930 low could lead to a retest of the 55-day SMA at $6.752 taking place. Below it the October-to-November support line can be spotted at $6.355.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and oil hold firm as natural gas edges lower

Commodity prices are awaiting a speech by Jerome Powell, which will determine the next move for the dollar and thus raw materials prices.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 30 November 2022 

Gold steadying ahead of Powell speech

Gold prices continue to steady after the mid-month wobble, and seem as if they are ready to push higher again.

Much of this will depend on whether Jerome Powell’s speech tonight will lean towards ultra-hawkishness, thus boosting the dollar and weakening commodities.

If gold does rise from here, then we would look for a push back towards the earlier November high at $1787, before moving on to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1796.

A reversal occasioned by a stronger dollar would drop towards $1730, and then below this $1725, a key area of support and resistance since September.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI cautious after bounce

Now that crude prices have rebounded from the overstretched position to the downside from the beginning of the week, investors are waiting to see whether Powell will give them further room to run.

The recovery back above the September low has given the buyers the chance of at least a short-term bounce. Additional gains target the $81.60 zone, previous support in September and October, before the 50-day SMA ($84.29) comes into view.

The rally from late September tried and failed twice to break above $92.50, so a longer-term move higher must clear this hurdle.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas tests 200-day MA

Gas prices continue to edge lower, though they have yet to breach the 200-day SMA.

If the pair can establish a higher low above the 200-day SMA or nearer to trendline support from the October low, then a fresh bounce may develop that targets 8000 once again.

A drop back below trendline support and then on below the 50-day SMA would give the bears some support and indicate a potential move back towards the October lows.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and Brent crude turn higher as dollar weakens, with natural gas on the back foot

Gold, Brent crude, and natural gas at risk of losing ground as concerns over Chinese demand grow.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 01 December 2022 

Gold pushes back towards resistance after risk-on move

Gold has benefitted from a wider risk-on sentiment that has been evident throughout global markets in the wake of yesterday’s appearance from Jerome Powell.

His insistence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would seek to slow their pace of tightening helped lower the perceived terminal rate, driving the dollar lower. That dollar move helped the commodity space, with gold rising back into the $1786 resistance level. While price has failed to push through that key level, it will be worth watching as a signal that we are set for another leg higher here.

As such, while the recent bullish phase does highlight the potential for further upside, a break through $1786 would be required to negate the idea that we falter at this level once again.

Beyond $1786, keep an eye on $1808 as the next level of resistance.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude turns higher from Fibonacci support

Brent crude has managed to turn upwards after a decline into the long-term 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $81.26.

While there is a possibility that this reversal has longevity to it, a move through the first swing-high of $89.30 would bring about the first signal that we are set to continue this push higher over the near-term.

Be aware, we could see major volatility up ahead, with Sunday’s OPEC meeting leading into a Monday implementation of the G7/EU price cap on Russian seaborne oil.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas closes in on trendline support

Natural gas has been on the back foot over the course of the past week, with the peak from last Wednesday giving way to a period of downside that is now taking us back towards the ascending trendline.

This market remains in an uptrend since the lows established in mid-October, with a break through the $5.898 level required to bring an end to this bullish move.

As such, we look likely to turn higher before long, with a move into trendline support looking likely to resolve in another push higher before long.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold rallies and oil holds steady, while natural gas continues to drop back

Gold prices have enjoyed strong gains this week, but oil prices have hit some selling and natural gas remains under pressure.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 December 2022 

Gold clears the 200-day MA again

The price has enjoyed two days of strong gains, taking it to its highest level since early August and above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since July.

The weaker US dollar continues to be a boon for the commodity, providing it with the foundation to push higher. Further gains now seem to target the cluster of resistance levels between $1830 and $1875, as the price continues to claw back losses from earlier in the year.

There has been no sign of a reversal here, but a move back below $1787 might provide some signs of a short-term consolidation.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI rebound stalls

A rebound from the lows of the week at $73.66 has carried the price back above $81.

Gains for a third day faltered around $83 yesterday, but the price has not yet gone into reverse. Instead it has paused, and we wait to see if the price can recover today and push on towards the 50-day SMA ($84.33) or whether it will head lower and bring about a fresh retest of the September lows around $76.48.

Above the 50-day SMA, the price will head on towards the 100-day SMA ($87.27) and then on to the October and November highs at $92.50.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas heads back to 50-day MA

The reversal goes on here, with the price now testing the 50-day SMA as possible support.

The drop from the November high above 8000 over the past two weeks has dented hopes that gas prices are poised to continue their ascent from the October low.

At present we are still in potential higher low territory, ideally if the price can bounce from above the 50-day SMA (6573). This might then set the price up for a move back to the November highs.

Continued losses would push the price in the direction of 6000, where it found support in mid-November.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold rises into resistance, as Brent crude and lumber weaken

Gold rallies into key long-term resistance level, while Brent crude and lumber head lower once again.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 05 December 2022 

Gold rallies into key $1808 resistance

Gold has seen its recovery phase continue over the past week, with price rising into the crucial $1808 resistance level.

The recovery across risk assets has helped drive precious metals upwards over the course of October and November, with December kicking off in much the same manner.

The ability to reach this key swing-high provides greater confidence from the bullish perspective, although it will be important to note whether we can overcome this level or simply engage it and turn lower.

As such, keep a close eye on whether we see gold overcome this level as a key factor that will drive sentiment over the near-term.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude turns lower on OPEC and reopening considerations

Brent crude has started to weaken after a rally that took price back up into the near-term $89.30 resistance level.

Coming off the back of a rebound from the long-term 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $81.26, the ability to break this $89.30 level was key in determining how high we go.

However, this weekend has seen OPEC maintain production levels, China move towards greater reopening, and the G7 implement their $60 price cap on seaborne crude from Russia. Plenty to go at, but for now we are seeing little volatility as traders weigh up the potential implications of this myriad of factors.

With that in mind, we continue to look at the $89.30 level as a key hurdle that needs to be overcome for the bulls to come back into prominence. Until then, there is a risk of further downside.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber falls into fresh two-year low

Lumber has been suffering once again, with Friday bringing yet another move to the downside.

That latest collapse has brought about the lowest reading since mid-2020. This looks to continue the downtrend in play over much of the year thus far.

With this in mind, there is a good chance we see another push lower from here, with any near-term rebound looking like a retracement before we head lower once again.

A rise up through the $447 resistance level would be required to negate that bearish trend.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas slide on appreciating US dollar

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas amid a rising US dollar post stringer-than-expected US ISM data.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Forex Commodities United States Gold Natural gas Petroleum

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 December 2022 

Brent crude oil falls out of bed after strong US ISM data

Brent crude oil’s rise to $88.37 on Monday was followed by a swift 6% decline to $82.54 on better-than-expected US Services PMI data which suggests that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates for longer which pushing the greenback higher.

On Tuesday morning the oil price tried to stabilise on easing Covid-19 restrictions in China which buoyed the demand outlook. Ongoing supply-side worries, triggered by fresh sanctions on Russian oil, may lead to a slip through Monday’s $82.54 low, however, and would push the late November trough at $80.81 back to the fore, a level last traded in January of this year.

Minor resistance can be spotted around the $85 mark and at the $87.99 to $88.37 mid-October low and Monday’s high. While the next higher $89.30 to $89.35 22 November and early December highs aren’t overcome, Brent crude oil remains in a downtrend since a series of lower highs and lower lows can be seen.

Minor support sits between the late September trough and the 21 November low at $82.55 to $82.32 and more significant support at Monday’s $80.81 low.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold drops sharply on strong US ISM services data

Last week’s gold rally abruptly ended at Monday’s $1,810 per troy ounce high with the precious metal slipping back towards its $1,765 late August high on the back of a stronger US dollar, pushed higher by US non-manufacturing (services) data for November which came in at a stronger-than-expected 56.5 (versus 53.3) and 54.4 in October.

With the precious metal flirting with its November-to-December support line at $1,771, a fall through $1,765 looks to be a distinct possibility, in which case the $1,735 to $1,727 key support area may soon be back in the picture.

It contains the mid-September and early October highs as well as the late November low. Resistance on Tuesday can be found around the $1,786 mid-November high and also along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,794 as well as at Monday’s $1,810 peak.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures in free fall

US natural gas futures accelerated their descent and gapped lower on Monday on expectations of higher supply and milder weather across the US over the next couple of weeks.

The planned restart of the Freeport LNG export plant which was due to begin in mid-December had to be pushed back until the end of the year as the company is still awaiting regulatory approval, leaving more gas in the domestic market and pushing prices lower still.

The July and October lows at $5.330 to $5.297 are now within reach, a drop through which would push the price of US natural gas to levels last seen in March at $5.273. Further down lies the early March high at $5.188.

Immediate resistance is seen at the $5.564 to $5.687 late October and early November lows, followed by Monday’s gap at $6.025 to $6.205.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent, and lumber at risk of bearish price pressure as market risks grow

Gold and lumber attempt to regain lost ground today, as Brent crude stabilises off the back of a sharp collapse.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 December 2022 

Gold turns upward after recent pullback

Gold has enjoyed a particularly strong November, with the price of this precious metal regaining ground to push into a fresh five-month high on Monday.

That recent rise into the $1808 resistance level brought about a significant pullback that day, with the recent weakness seen for equity markets bringing about a fresh move lower here. This highlights the fact that gold has largely traded positively when markets move into risk-on mode.

With that in mind, a reversal in equities would likely bring about a similar sell-off for gold. For now, the key hurdle comes in the form of the $1808 level, with a push through that point required to signal a bullish continuation signal.

To the downside, a move through the $1729 level would point towards a potential bearish breakdown from here.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude collapses through Fibonacci support

Brent crude has seen sharp declines over the course of the past week, with price heading sharply lower to trade below $80 for the first time since early-January.

Notably, that sharp decline also took price back through the 76.4% Fibonacci support level at $81.25, bringing about a potential signal that we may not be retracing this time around.

A continuation of this move would be a positive from the inflation perspective, but quite where this latest move lower comes to an end remains to be seen.

With China showing signs of gradually removing Covid restrictions, there is a chance that a rise in demand from that region makes up for some of the lost global demand as recessions take hold in 2023.

For now, the bearish trajectory that has dominated the past six months does remain in play, although the sharp declines seen over the past week bring a high chance that we move into another retracement phase before long.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber rebound takes price back up towards key resistance

Lumber has enjoyed a strong move higher this week, as the commodity regains much of the ground lost on Thursday and Friday.

However, the bearish trend does clearly remain intact for now, with a move up through the $446 swing-high required to start telling a more positive story.

With that in mind, another turn lower looks likely from here, with a rise through $446 required to signal the end of that pattern of lower highs.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and natural gas edge higher but oil prices keep falling

While gold and gas prices are moving up in early trading, oil prices are under pressure again.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 09 December 2022 

Gold testing 200-day MA

Gold’s solid November has given way to some gains for December, though the reversal back below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) did shake the outlook somewhat.

The price has however recovered from this to an extent, and looks ready to test the 200-day SMA again, as well as the $1800 zone of resistance that marked the highs in August and November. A break above this signals a continuation of gains.

Meanwhile, a reversal below this week’s low around $1765 would bring the $1729 lows from mid-November into view.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI keeps falling

The price continues to push lower, with Thursday’s attempt at a rally quashed by fresh selling.

Oil attempted to bounce on Thursday, moving back to $75 and into the previous zone of support. However this failed and the price dropped back towards $72. Further declines bring the $66 support zone into view, last seen towards the end of 2021.

Trendline resistance from the November high could cap gains in the short-term, but a move above $82.60 would be needed to signal that a broader recovery is in play.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas bounce intact

A rebound from the support zone around 5400 continues, although yesterday’s move to 6000 found a wall of selling.

For additional upside, the price needs to clear the gap down created in late November. From here a move towards 7000 may be contemplated.

A bigger move lower requires a close below the 5400 support zone.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold struggles, as Brent crude and natural gas see energy market divergence

Gold struggles to break key resistance, while energy markets diverge thanks to Brent crude declines, and a pop higher for natural gas on weather concerns.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 December 2022 

Gold struggles to break through $1808 resistance

Gold has been on the front foot over much of the third quarter (Q3), with price recovering from its $1615 lows to re-establish itself around the August swing-high of $1808.

That resistance level appears to be a major hurdle as things stand, with price struggling to break above that point this month. The ability to reestablish itself above $1808 will be key in signalling expectations of further short-term upside.

Much will come down to wider market sentiment here, with concerns over Chinese Covid cases bringing potential downside should the country reimpose tighter restrictions.

As such, wider risk-sentiment should be tracked given the potential for gold to reverse lower if equities do the same.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to slump as Chinese concerns grow

Brent crude has kicked off the week with a fresh move lower today, where the declines seen over the course of the past week are on track to continue apace.

With Fibonacci levels having already been taken out, there are no major levels of note until we reach the $65.73 support level. For now, it is worthwhile looking down towards the potential trendline support which could come into play.

With recent hope that a Chinese reopening could lift demand, the growing concerns over a fresh wave of Covid cases does also bring risk of another widespread set of restrictions.

As such, further short-term downside remains a major risk going forward.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas pops higher as European freeze lifts demand outlook

Natural gas prices have pushed sharply higher at the start of the new week, with the weekend freeze evident in parts of Europe bringing the potential for a surge in demand.

Quite what that does to stockpiles remains to be seen, but this weather does at least raise expectations of further upside for natural gas after the recent rebound from $5.329 support.

With that in mind, further upside looks likely, with the Fibonacci resistance levels at $7.035 and $7.441 providing the next levels to watch.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, US natural gas and gold rise ahead of US inflation data

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas ahead of US CPI data.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Commodities Brent Crude United States Natural gas Petroleum Gold

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 13 December 2022 

Brent crude oil bounces off $75 region on China demand hopes

Brent crude oil has bounced off its near one-year low made close to the $75 mark amid hopes that China will relax its Covid-19 restrictions further, boosting the demand outlook for the commodity.

The bounce off Friday’s low at $75.32, a level last traded in December of last year, is taking the price of Brent towards its November trough at $80.81, above which the 21 November low at $82.32 might also act as resistance ahead of the two-month downtrend line at $85.18.

While the next higher $89.30 to $89.35 22 November and early December highs aren’t overcome, Brent remains in a medium-term downtrend since a series of lower highs and lower lows can be spotted on the daily chart.

Minor support sits at last week’s $75.32 low and further support at the $71.13 March 2021 high.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold continues to flirt with the 200-day simple moving average

Gold’s slip from last Friday’s $1,806 per troy ounce high has briefly taken it to Monday’s low at $1,778 before continuing to flirt around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,790 ahead of Tuesday’s US inflation data and the widely anticipated 50 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.

The key technical levels to watch out for are the $1,810 early December high and last week’s $1,763 low. If the latter were to be slipped through, the precious metal may be slipping back towards its $1,735 to $1,727 key support area.

Were Friday’s and the early December highs at $1,806 to $1,810 to be exceeded, however, the way would be opened up for the June peak at $1,877 to be targeted.

Since negative divergence can still be seen on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), the odds favour either further short-term consolidation or a sell-off in the price of the precious metal and do not point to an advance in the near future.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures recover to the 55-day SMA

US natural gas futures have rallied by close to 25% from their $5.320 early December low amid hopes of China’s Covid restrictions easing and as the European Union (EU) seeks to break its deadlock over capping natural gas prices by agreeing to a price ceiling.

The front month futures contract gapped higher from Friday’s $6.313 high and is currently being supported by the area between the 55-day SMA and Monday’s low at $6,481 to $6.406.

The previous two-month support line, because of inverse polarity now a resistance line, at $6.780 offers minor resistance, together with Monday’s $6.936 peak.

Further up meanders the 200-day SMA at $7,168 which is likely to act as resistance, if reached at all.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent crude, and lumber on the back foot once again

Gold, Brent crude, and lumber head lower today, with sentiment souring as the Fed lays out plans to keep rates higher for longer.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 15 December 2022 

Gold struggles at $1808 once again

Gold has been stifled once again today, with price turning lower after Tuesday’s attempt to push through the $1808 resistance level.

That swing-high resistance level dating back to August remains a key hurdle to overcome for the bulls, with the sell-off seen today risking a break down through support to bring a more pessimistic view back into play.

This comes off the back of an FOMC meeting which signalled that rates will be higher for longer despite falling inflation. Expect gold to ultimately outperform as we approach rate cut territory. However, the question over how early markets will front run that move remains to be seen.

For now, the ability to break through $1808 is key for bulls, while a decline through $1765 would signal a potential bearish phase coming into play.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude showing signs of weakness within recovery phase

Brent crude has started to lose traction within the rebound that has dominated this week thus far.

Recession fears remain evident as markets wait to see whether China efforts to move past their zero-Covid policy will be sustainable or bring a fresh set of lockdowns.

For price, the downtrend evident over the course of the past six months does bring expectations that we will see another move lower before long.

A break up through the $89.35 swing-high would be required to bring about an end to this pattern of lower highs. Until then, another turn lower looks likely, with the $84-86 Fibonacci zone providing a significant hurdle for bulls.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber heads lower after another 76.4% Fibonacci retracement

Lumber has been hit hard over the course of the past week, with the recent rise up into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level bringing about another turn lower for the commodity.

The long-term downtrend seen over the course of this year therefore continues to play out, with price looking to move back through the $387 low from here. Should we see that level taken out, then further downside is expected.

Ultimately, this bearish trend remains in place unless we see price push up through the $435 peak from last Tuesday. Until that level breaks, further downside looks likely.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, US natural gas recover amid ongoing gold rally

Outlook on Brent crude oil, US natural gas and gold amid re-opening of China.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 09 January 2023 

Gold rallies to seven-month high towards $1,877 June high

Gold now trades in seven-month highs and looks to be on track to reach its $1,877 per troy ounce June peak. Above it the March 2022 lows can be spotted at $1,891 to $1,896 and the late April 2022 high at $1,919, all of which may act as strong resistance if reached.

Minor support can be seen at the 4 January high at $1,865 and more significant support along the November to January uptrend line at $1,834. While it underpins, the medium-term uptrend which began in November is expected to continue.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil’s tumble pauses

Brent crude oil is bouncing off its early January three-week low at $75.65 on hopes of less aggressive monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) following last week’s Non-Farm Payroll data which showed payroll gains without excessively strong wage growth and as China re-opened without restrictions.

The party secretary of the People’s Bank of China, Guo Shuqing, said on Sunday that the country’s economic growth should quickly rebound and return to pre-Covid-19 levels as the government provides financial support to private companies and households to help them recover from the past three years' Covid-related slump.

The oil price is currently targeting its $81.86 late December low above which lies the mid-December high at $83.18 and the 2022 to 2023 downtrend line at $85.68.

The December and current January lows at $75.65 to $75.32 represent strong support and while this area holds, a sustained move higher may well ensue this week.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures recover from 1½ year lows

US natural gas futures last week slid to 1½ year lows of around $3.5/MMBtu as investors realised that some of their greatest fears such as prolonged extreme cold weather and supply shortages didn’t materialise.

As the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to shut down in June 2022 due to a fire, is expected to re-open in the second half of January, additional supply at a time of relatively high inventories is likely to keep prices low.

US natural gas prices have fallen by around 54% since their $8.096 late November high. The front month contract seems to be levelling out in the short-term, however, and is seen heading back up towards its February 2022 low at $3.875, above which sits the minor psychological $4.000 mark.

Further minor resistance can be spotted at the December-to-January price gap at $4.231 to $4.348.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, copper stall at multi-month highs while WTI slips on hawkish Fed comments

Outlook on gold, WTI and copper ahead of Fed Chair's speech.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 January 2023 

Gold stalls in eight-month highs

The price of gold has risen to eight-month highs and on Monday briefly overcame its $1,877 per troy ounce June peak but didn’t quite manage to reach the March 2022 lows at $1,891 to $1,896 before stalling ahead of US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jeremy Powell’s speech which is likely to set the tone ahead of Thursday's US inflation reading.

Were the November-to-January advance to continue and the $1,877 to $1,881 resistance area to be exceeded, the late April 2022 high at $1,919 may be reached next. The whole $1,877 to $1,919 area may act as strong resistance, though.

Minor support remains to be seen at the 4 January high at $1,865 with more significant support seen along the November to January uptrend line at $1,839. While above it, the medium-term uptrend remains in play.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI slips on rate hike concerns

The bounce in WTI over the last few days seems to have been short-lived with the oil price easing back to last week’s low at $72.64 on rate hike concerns following comments from Fed officials about needing to push US rates above 5% and then hold them.

While Monday’s high at $76.89 isn’t bettered, downside bias prevails with the November low at $73.67 being in the pipeline. Further down sits the December trough at $70.25.

Above Monday’s $76.89 high meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $80.27 and sits significant resistance between the December-to-January highs at $81.18 to $83.30. While it caps, the medium-term downtrend remains valid.

Source: ProRealTime

Copper loses upside momentum at eight-month highs

Copper’s over 7% rise in three consecutive days to six-month highs at $8,869 per tonne as demand prospects brightened after China reopened its borders probably has further to run with the May 2022 low at $8,939 being targeted.

Short-term the recent advance may lose upside momentum, though. This is due to hawkish comments by the Fed ahead of Thursday’s highly anticipated US inflation data. However, good support between the November and December highs at $8,629 to $8,593 is likely to hold up the industrial metal’s price.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold remains bid, WTI rallies and US natural gas stabilises ahead of US CPI report

Outlook on gold, WTI and US natural gas futures ahead of US inflation release.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 January 2023 

Gold in eight-month highs ahead of US inflation data

The price of gold has risen to eight-month highs and is now trading above its $1,877 per troy ounce June peak and may reach the March 2022 lows at $1,891 to $1,896 ahead of the publication of US inflation data at 1.30pm UK time.

Further up lies the late April 2022 high at $1,919. The whole $1,877 to $1,919 area may act as strong resistance, however, ahead of a possible medium-term upside target at around the $2,000 mark.

Minor support below Wednesday’s $1,868 low remains to be seen at the 4 January high at $1,865 with more significant support coming in along the November to January uptrend line at $1,849. While above it, the medium-term uptrend remains valid.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI recovers amid China growth hopes

WTI surged higher by more than 4% on demand optimism as the world’s largest oil importer, China is reopening its economy, leading to higher oil consumption.

According to TradingEconomics, concerns about the impact of sanctions on Russian supply also led to higher oil prices, as the European Union restrictions with regards to Russian fuel product sales are due to take effect in February.

The November-to-January downtrend line at $79.56 and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $79.91 are thus back in the frame but may cap. If not, key resistance between the December and early January highs at $81.18 to $83.30 would be in focus. As long as it caps, the price of oil remains in a bearish trend, though.

Were a rise and daily chart close above the $83.30 December peak to be seen, however, a bullish trend reversal could push the price of WTI all the way back to the October and November highs as well as the 200-day SMA at $92.70 to $92.62.

Minor support sits at Monday’s $76.89 high and further minor support at the $76.12 September low.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures trade in 1 ½ year lows

US natural gas futures so far slid to 1 ½ year lows of around $3.30/MMBtu on clement weather forecasts and as the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to shut down in June 2022 due to a fire, is expected to re-open in the weeks to come and should be fully operational again by March 2023.

It would add additional supply at a time of relatively high inventories, potentially pushing prices lower still. US natural gas prices have fallen by around 55% from their $8.096 late November high and may soon reach the May 2021 high at $3.187.

Short-term the front month contract is trying to stabilise and is seen heading back up towards its February 2022 low at $3.875, above which sits the minor psychological $4.000 mark.

Further minor resistance can be spotted at the December-to-January price gap at $4.231 to $4.348.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold hits nine-month high, while oil and lumber rebound

Commodities have been given a further lift by the weaker dollar, resulting in recoveries for oil and lumber and further gains in gold’s impressive rally.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 January 2023 

Gold hits nine-month high

Further gains took place following the US inflation reading, which indicated a weakening of price growth and pushed the dollar lower.

Additional gains seem to suggest that the next levels to watch are $1919, last seen at the end of last April, while beyond this the $1998 highs of 2022 come into play.

A recovery in the dollar could see the rally enter a corrective phase, potentially pushing the price back towards $1850.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI rebound returns to 50-day MA

The price continues to claw back some of the losses from the beginning of the month.

Post-CPI price action has seen the price head back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Additional gains above here bring the late December highs at $81.20 into view.

As yet there is no sign of a reversal, but a drop back below $76 might mark the resumption of the downtrend.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber pushes above 50-day SMA

Prices have surged from the low seen at the beginning of the week, piercing the 50-day SMA for the first time since October.

For the moment this has yet to put much of a dent in the downtrend, and a lower high may yet be created. Additional upside targets the 100-day SMA (currently 44,624), and then on towards 45,200.

A reversal back below the 50-day SMA would bring the downtrend back into play, and target the 37,204 low.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, WTI rallies stall during US Martin Luther King holiday while US natural gas remains under pressure

Outlook on gold, WTI and US natural gas futures during US holiday.

Source: Bloomberg

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 16 January 2023 

Gold trades in nine-month highs amid China reopening

The price of gold has risen to nine-month highs as the US trading is curtailed due to the Martin Luther King holiday.

The precious metal is now trading above its minor psychological $1,900 per troy ounce level, despite retracing lower from its Monday intraday high at $1,929, last traded in April 2022. 

Even if the precious metal were to short-term consolidate as it is now deemed to be overbought, the medium-term trend continues to point towards the April 2022 peak at $1,998 and the psychological $2,000 mark.

Support comes in along the January support line at $1,895 which can be seen within the March 2022 lows at $1,896 to $1,891. Further down lies last Wednesday’s $1,868 low.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI recovery stalls during US holiday

WTI’s 9% surge higher from its early January low on demand optimism as the world’s largest oil importer China is reopening its economy has given way to a minor retracement as investors contemplate the prospect of an economic slowdown in other major economies.

The breached November-to-January downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity, support line at $79.03 so far underpins. Below it minor support can be found at the $77.98 high made last Wednesday. Further down sits the $76.86 late December low.

Immediate resistance is seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $79.36 and at last week’s $80.31 high. If overcome this week, major resistance between the December and early January highs at $81.18 to $83.30 would be next in store. As long as it caps, the price of oil remains in a medium-term sideways to bearish trend.

Were a rise and daily chart close above the $83.30 December peak to occur, however, a bullish trend reversal would be formed and could push the price of WTI all the way back to the October and November highs as well as the 200-day SMA at $92.45 to $92.62.

Source: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures trade in 1 ½ year lows

US natural gas futures so far slid to 1 ½ year lows of around $3.23/MMBtu on clement weather forecasts expected to persist until spring, cutting demand, and as the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to shut down in June 2022 due to a fire, is expected to re-open in the coming days, subject to approval by the regulator.

Since the facility is expected to add additional supply at a time of relatively high inventories, US natural gas prices remain under pressure.

Prices dropped by nearly 60% from their $8.096 late November high and may soon reach the May 2021 high at $3.187.

Short-term the front month contract is trying to stabilise and is seen heading back up towards the minor $3.50 level, above which the February 2022 low remains to be seen at $3.875 ahead of the minor psychological $4.000 mark.

Further minor resistance can be spotted at the December-to-January price gap at $4.231 to $4.348.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium come off their multi-month highs as US markets reopen

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium as US holiday ends.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 17 January 2023 

Brent crude oil’s tumble pauses

Brent crude oil’s recent advance is seen running out of steam below the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $85.49 amid increasing recession fears.

The World Bank, World Economic Forum and major US companies all warned of a potential slowdown and recession this year while US banks increased their reserves amid the worsening outlook leading to demand worries for oil ahead of Tuesday’s OPEC and Wednesday’s IEA outlook reports.

At the same time better-than-expected economic growth in the fourth quarter (Q4) in China kept oil prices supported. The Chinese economy grew by 2.9% year-on-year in Q4 2022, down from 3.9% in Q3, but above expectations of 1.8%.

Were Brent crude oil to rise above last week’s high at $85.63, the early January high at $86.93 and the November-to-January downtrend line at $87.54 would be targeted ahead of the October, late November and early December highs at $87.99 to $89.35 which represent key resistance for the medium-term trend.

Support below Monday’s low at $84.03 can be spotted at the mid-December $83.18 high.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold comes off its nine-month highs

The price of gold has risen to a new nine-month high at $1,929 per troy ounce during Monday’s US Martin Luther King holiday in little volume before sliding back towards its January support line at $1,905 on Tuesday morning.

Having said that, the precious metal remains above its minor psychological $1,900 level. Even if gold were to consolidate further in the short-term, the medium-term trend will continue to point towards the April 2022 peak at $1,998 and the psychological $2,000 mark as long as the 5 January low at $1,826 isn’t being slipped through.

Below the January support line at $1,905 lie the March 2022 lows at $1,896 to $1,891. Further down last Wednesday’s low can be found at $1,868.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium short-term consolidates in seven-month highs

Aluminium surged by over 15% from its $2,252 early January low after seven consecutive days of gains on expectations that China’s swift reopening will lead to higher demand for the metal.

It so far rose to $2,629 in January while on its way to the mid-June 2022 high at $2,649 and the May 2022 low at $2,698. The fact that the metal has closed above its $2,576 December peak for two consecutive days is technically significant and means that a long-term bottom has most likely been formed which could lead to further steep price rises taking the aluminium price to $3,000.

Slips should find support around the $2,576 December peak and then along the 200-day SMA at $2,531.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold sits near highs, while oil prices make headway and natural gas moves sideways

While gold’s rally has run out of steam for now, comments from OPEC have bolstered the oil price, resulting in further near-term upside.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 January 2023 

Gold’s rally slows

The price has seen its upward move stall, though it has yet to turn into a bigger retracement.

Monday’s session saw the price top out at $1929 for now, with the beginnings of a potential reversal on Tuesday seeing the price head back towards $1900. Below this, the zone around $1880 may provide support.

A move back above $1930 would signal a resumption of the upward move, though the price remains overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), a signal that a possible consolidation is ahead.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI rallies towards 100-day MA

Oil prices shrugged off Monday’s weakness and have pushed higher.

After edging back towards the 50-day SMA on Monday, the price rebounded on Tuesday on OPEC comments that demand from China would remain relatively robust. This resulted in a push back above $81.39 that now points towards a test of the 100-day SMA. Beyond this the $82.20 zone, support in October and resistance in November and December comes into view.

Sellers will want to see a reversal back below $79 to suggest a lower high and a resumption of the downtrend.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas moves sideways

There is little sign of a bounce here, but the losses have slowed over the past week.

An attempt at a rebound last week faltered around 3750, but for the moment losses have stalled just above 3300. The downtrend is firmly intact, but radically overextended, and with a potential MACD rebound now in play should we see a move higher in coming days, at least a temporary recovery could begin.

This possible bullish view is cancelled out with a drop back below 3300.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold heads higher, as natural gas and Brent crude show signs of potential energy price weakness

Gold continues to head higher, while energy prices come under pressure thanks to bearish outlooks for Brent crude and natural gas.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 January 2023 

Gold consolidation does little to dampen bullish trend

Gold has been taking a breather of late, with price drifting lower since Monday's high.

The wider market sentiment has certainly taken a hit, with US stock markets leading those declines. However, that is yet to result in any meaningful resurgence for the dollar, with the inflation differential between European and US price growth bringing continued dollar index weakness. In the absence of any major uptick in the dollar, we look likely to see continued strength for gold.

The four-hour chart brings clarity over this ongoing recovery phase, with the trend of higher lows signalling the potential for further upside.

A break through the $1825 low would be required to bring an end to the current bullish trend.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude turns lower from moving average resistance

Brent crude has been on the rise of late, with price pushing into a fresh six-week high yesterday.

However, we have subsequently seen prices reverse lower from the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The decline through the 80 threshold on the stochastic oscillator brings a sell signal, which has proven a timely and reliable signal over the past five occasions.

With the wider trend of lower highs in play, there is a good chance we will see price weaken from here.

A break up through the $99.06 swing-high would bring about a fresh bullish signal. Until then, a bearish turnaround looks a distinct possibility here.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas hits 19-month low

Natural gas prices have dropped into a 19-month low this week, with US energy prices continuing to slump to the benefit of inflation expectations.

The trend seen over the course of the past month has been remarkably consistent, with price falling 55% since the mid-December peak. The ability to maintain that trend will come down to whether we continue to see lower highs established.

With that in mind, a bearish view holds unless price manages to break up through the latest swing-high of $3.549. Until then, any near-term rebound looks to provide a selling opportunity once again.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, oil and lumber prices make headway

Commodity prices have been given a boost by various factors, including a weaker dollar and stronger demand expectations from China.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 20 January 2023 

Gold rallies to fresh highs

The price has shrugged off the weakness from the first half of the week and made fresh gains.

After edging back towards $1900, a weakening US dollar and continued fears about the US economy resulted in a push to a new nine-month high for the price. $1980 and then $1996 become the next levels to watch on the upside.

As noted earlier in the week, the price remains overextended from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), having rallied sharply throughout December and January.

A near-term pullback to create a higher might help to bolster the uptrend, but there is little sign of one developing just yet.

Source: ProRealTime

WTI price buoyed by China demand hopes

Buyers and sellers continue to fight it out in the no man’s land between the 50- and 100-day SMAs.

It looked as if the sellers had the upper hand on Wednesday, with the price reversing from the 100-day SMA, but the buyers reasserted control on Thursday with a bounce off the 50-day SMA, leaving the price stuck in a narrow range.

A rally above $83 would likely indicate that the buyers have the upper hand once again and that a move in the direction of the October and November highs, and towards the 200-day SMA, is now in prospect.

Alternately, sellers will want to see a move back below the 50-day SMA that will mark the resumption of the downtrend.

Source: ProRealTime

Lumber rallies towards 100-day MA

The price has surged from its lows, but gains have stalled below the 100-day SMA.

Buyers will want to see a continued move above 45,000 in order to suggest a push towards the 200-day SMA is in the offing. This would also take it back towards the October highs at 54,000.

Sellers will want a reversal that puts the price back below the 50-day SMA and signals that a lower high has been created and the downtrend has been reignited.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas in retracement mode, with their trends expected to resume

Gold and natural gas look to be in retracement mode as traders await reversion to their trends. Meanwhile, Brent crude has managed to push into trendline resistance.

Source: Bloomberg

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 January 2023 

Gold eases back to kick off the week

Gold has started the week on the back foot, with price reversing lower after moving within touching distance of the 20% gain needed to define a bull market.

However, that is not to say that all hope if lost for such a classification, with the ongoing pattern of higher lows bringing expectations of another rebound before long.

A decline through the $1896 level would signal a potential bearish period coming into play. However, until we see that, we are likely to see price turn upwards to continue the bullish trend in place for gold.

In terms of where to look for that rebound to take shape, the 61.8-76.4% Fibonacci retracement zone brings an interesting zone to watch ($1906-1912).

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude rallies back up into trendline resistance

Brent crude has enjoyed a period of strength that has brought price back into the $88 zone, with a descending trendline coming into play as a result.

That wider trendline resistance highlights the importance of this zone, with a strong possibility that the bears come back into play as a result.

Between the $88 level and trendline resistance, it makes sense to keep an eye out for how price reacts to this confluence of resistance. A pullback could signal the beginning of another bearish phase to continue the wider trend, with a decline through $84.02 bringing confirmation of such a move.

To the upside, a push through $88 resistance would bring greater confidence that this recovery phase will continue as we move through this week.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas expected to decline from trendline resistance

Natural gas has been on the back foot over the course of the past month, with US gas prices falling back into a 19-month low.

That collapse into the $3 mark has been remarkably swift, with bears largely having it their way as minor retracements are repeatedly greeted by additional legs lower.

Once again, we find ourselves back at trendline resistance, with a strong chance that the bears come back into prominence as a result.

However, the true test comes at $3.549, where a push through that swing-high would be required to signal an end to this bearish phase. Until that levels breaks, further downside looks likely for natural gas.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium prices push higher

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium during China Lunar New year.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 January 2023 

Brent crude oil test key resistance on demand optimism

Brent crude oil is once again trying to break through its key $87.99 to $89.35 resistance zone, made up of the mid-October low and December high, on hopes that China’s reopening will lead to the world’s largest importer needing more oil.

Last week’s comments by the World Bank, World Economic Forum, and major US companies warning of a potential slowdown and recession this year seem to have been put aside for now.

A rise and daily chart close above the $89.35 early December high would indicate that a technical bottom has been formed with the October and November highs as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $96.91 to $99.60 representing probable upside targets.

Support can be spotted along the January support line at $86.32, the 55-day SMA at $84.80 and at the 19 January low at $83.98. While the latter underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the odds favour a break of the key resistance zone and an ensuing further advance in the price of crude oil.

Source: ProRealTime

Gold trades in new nine-month highs

The price of gold rose to a new nine-month high at $1,942 per troy ounce earlier today with the $1,959 January 2021 peak representing the next upside target while on its way to the April 2022 peak at $1,998 and the psychological $2,000 mark.

These levels remain in focus as long as the 18 January low at $1,897 and the March 2022 lows at $1,896 to $1,891 aren’t being slipped through.

Above these levels the January support line can be seen at $1,918 and Monday’s low at $1,912.

Source: ProRealTime

Aluminium tries to regain its seven-month highs

Aluminium's swift January advance on expectations that China’s reopening will lead to higher demand for the metal has so far taken it to a seven-month high at $2,678 per metric ton which is back in focus now that it has recovered from last week’s minor corrective low at $2,555.

Above $2,678 beckons the May 2022 low at $2,698. The fact that the metal last week retested and then bounced off its $2,576 December peak is technically significant and means that a long-term bottom has most likely been formed which could lead to further steep price rises taking the aluminium price to $3,000.

Slips through the steep January uptrend line at $2,625 should find support in the $2,576 to $2,555 region with further support being spotted along the 200-day SMA at $2,511.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold and natural gas continue to trend, while Brent crude reverses lower from resistance

Gold and natural gas look set to continue their ongoing trends, while Brent crude starts to reverse lower after recent gains.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 January 2023 

Gold maintains its upward path

Gold has been a big outperformer over the course of the past few months, with the precious metal rising into a nine-month high yesterday.

This comes within a period of strength that has largely been viewing things from a goldilocks scenario of continued inflation declines, and a transition towards a more dovish central bank stance.

However, the jump in Australian inflation overnight does provide a warning sign, with CPI reaching a three-decade high. Nonetheless, until we see a significant resurgence for the dollar, or a notable pickup in US inflation, gold looks likely to maintain its upward path.

The four-hour chart highlights this bullish trajectory, with further upside expected as long as we do not see price fall back below the $1911 swing-low.

Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude turns lower from trendline resistance

Brent crude has been on the front foot over the course of the past fortnight, with price rising into a fresh seven-week high on Monday.

However, the daily chart highlights how this rebound has also brough price into the confluence of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and descending trendline. That highlights the wider downtrend in play here, which appears to be kicking back into play.

With that in mind, bearish positions are carrying more favour, with a move below the $83.97 swing-low bringing greater confidence of that downward phase.

Source: ProRealTime

Natural gas continues to trend lower

Natural gas has maintained its downward trajectory, with price falling into a 19-month low this morning.

The downtrend seen over the course of the past month has been remarkably consistent, with the recent rise back into trendline resistance bringing about a fresh move through support.

With that in mind, another bout of downside looks likely as long as we continue to trade within this trend of lower highs and lower lows. In particular, bearish positions are favoured unless price rises through the recently established swing-high of $3.322.

Source: ProRealTime