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Gold, Brent crude and natural gas lifted by recent dollar declines

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas lifted by a weakening dollar, but will that rebound continue if the dollar comes back into prominence?

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 06 October 2022

Gold lifted by easing dollar and BoE policy shift

Gold has enjoyed a period of strength that has taken price up through $1688 resistance to bring about a fresh three-week high.

This appears to be significantly influenced by the pullback in the dollar, with the dominance of the greenback bringing about an intriguing scenario where gold performs best when markets are in a risk-on mode.

This comes in stark contrast to the traditional view of gold as performing well in times of distress. However, while that is driven by the trend of rising rates, the action of the Bank of England (BoE) to immediately ease policy when the gilt market took a turn does provide hope for gold bulls.

After all, if we do see the economic data deteriorate in the US, any signs of a potential reversal from the Fed could mark the beginning of the next bull run for gold.

From a charting perspective, price is currently moving into a confluence of horizontal and Fibonacci resistance around $1735. A move through that point would signal a potential push into the $1762 resistance level (76.4% Fibonacci).

However, for now there is a good chance that we soon see markets deteriorate, dollar strengthen, and gold turn lower once again. Therefore, this current rise looks to be a retracement of the sell-off from $1808.

XAUUSD-4-hours-2022_10_06-08h43.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude lifted by OPEC production cut

Brent crude is on the front foot this week, with market calls for a 1-million barrel per day (bpd) production cut from OPEC+ ultimately proving too conservative.

In fact, we saw a 2-million bpd output cut announced, much to the dismay of Joe Biden. Clearly OPEC didn’t get the memo that the aim is to keep energy prices low to quell inflationary pressures.

Nonetheless, this has provided a lift for Brent crude at a time when we had already started to see the bulls come back into the fold.

The daily chart highlights how this latest rebound comes from an important wider 76.4% Fibonacci support level ($81.25), with that long-term bull trend potentially coming back into play.

A rise through $95.19 would provide greater confidence of that bullish story, ending the trend of lower highs. Until that break occurs, there is still a risk that sentiment turns downwards to the detriment of crude oil.

LCO-Daily-2022_10_06-08h48.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas showing tentative signs of a resurgence

Natural gas prices have been on the back foot over the course of the week thus far, with price having slipped back into a confluence of support between the 76.4% Fibonacci level and trendline support.

With Europe seeking to source its gas from LNG suppliers abroad, this US pricing should be well supported. That signals the potential for an uplift from here, with the wider pattern of higher lows bringing about the potential for a push higher.

Near-term it makes sense to look out for a break through $7.237 to bring about a bullish signal for this market.

NG-Daily-2022_10_06-08h59.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and wheat fall back as oil continues on an upward course

While oil prices are still heading higher, wheat and gold have fallen back.

BG_gold_bar_098098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 07 October 2022 

Gold falters as late September bounce fades

The price has reversed from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), with the potential forming for a fresh leg lower.

The bounce from the September lows faltered at $1725, putting a move back to $1685 into view. Below this the lows from September would come into play, down towards $1630.

It would require a reversal back above $1725 to suggest that a fresh bounce is underway.

Gold_071022.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI clambers above 50-day MA

The bounce from the September lower low has now pushed on past the 50-day SMA, putting the price above this level for the first time since late June.

Gains in September stalled at $89, so a move above here would help to reinforce the bullish view. It would then put the 200-day SMA at $97.06 into play as the next target, coinciding closely with the highs from late August at $97.30.

Should the price reverse from current levels then a lower high would arguably be created, or at least an interim double-top formation around $89, which might then suggest a reversal back to $76.50 is in progress.

WTI_071022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Wheat tests trendline support

Wheat has been on a steadily-rising trend from its August low, although it is testing rising trendline support at present with its drop back to 890.

If this marks a trendline break then 874 and 825 come into view as possible support. Before 825, the price may encounter support at the rising 50-day SMA (currently 838).

A rebound back above 900 revives the uptrend and puts last week’s highs around 930 into play as an upside target, along with the 200-day SMA (currently 930).

Wheat_071022.png
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Gold, Brent crude and natural gas ease back but questions remain after OPEC action

Gold, Brent crude and natural gas hurt by a rising dollar, but will we see energy prices reverse higher after OPEC intervened despite the obvious damage done by the inflation?

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 10 October 2022 

Gold rolling over as dollar strength drives price lower once again

Gold looks to be reversing lower in much the same manner as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with dollar strength bringing a fresh round of downside for the precious metal.

The wider outlook provides us with a clear bearish bias which remains in play until we see price taking out major resistance.

The recent rally has been borne of a dollar decline, but also the actions from the Bank of England (BoE) provided some hope for gold bulls that we could see central bank policy reversed in the event of a crisis.

Nonetheless, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) insisting they will stay the course, and the jobs report bringing optimism over the economic picture, it seems that rates are set to go higher yet.

As such, with markets back in risk-off mode, we are expecting to see another bout of downside for gold, with the recent rise into trendline resistance providing a fresh downward turn here.

A break up through the $1735 swing-high would provide some expectation of a wider rebound. However, until that happens we are looking likely to see another move lower from here.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_10_10-08h43.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude driven higher by OPEC production cut

Brent crude has enjoyed a protracted period of gains over the course of the past week, with the surprise two million barrels per day (bpd) production cut from OPEC doing exactly what they had hoped for.

Quite whether it will be enough to reverse the trajectory of this market as a whole remains to be seen, with the rise taking us into a wider Fibonacci resistance level. The rise through $95.19 brought about an end to the near-term downtrend, but we still have to overcome the $103.46 mark to signal a wider rebound coming into play.

For now, we have to check for how price reacts to the 76.4% Fibonacci level, with a push through $98.52 bringing greater confidence that we will indeed see a push up through $103.46.

Keep an eye out for the trajectory of the stochastic oscillator, with a drop out of overbought territory bringing a potential signal that price is going to roll over from here.

LCO-Daily-2022_10_10-08h52.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas starts to gain ground from key support zone

Natural gas prices have been hit hard since the August peak, with price thankfully coming off to the benefit of the consumer.

However, we are seeing signs that this negative trajectory could be coming to an end after price declined into a confluence of trendline and Fibonacci support. That 76.4% Fibonacci level at $6.426 appears to have held well, with price making gains since initial contact of that low.

While we saw prices head lower on Friday, there is a good chance that we see the bulls come back into play here. As such, further upside is expected, with a decline through the recent low of $6.368 required to negate the idea that price is reversing higher here.

NG-Daily-2022_10_10-09h02.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas fall on strong US dollar

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas as US dollar rallies amid global recession fears and Russian missile attacks on Ukraine.

bg_oil_gettyimages_865943750.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 11 October 2022 

Brent crude oil in consolidation mode

Brent crude oil’s rise from its $82.55 September low to last week’s $98.00 high is taking a breather amid a strong US dollar and weakening demand outlook.

This comes on the back of global recession fears as the IMF and World Bank warned of a slowdown.

The $95.19 mid-September high and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $93.97 are likely to be revisited with the latter perhaps acting as support. Further down sits major support at $92.53 to $91.08, made up of the mid-July and mid-August lows and the 21 September high.

Minor resistance can be spotted at the early September high at $96.66 with further resistance seen at last week’s $98.00 high, a rise above which would push the 200-day SMA at $100.99 to the fore.

11102022LCO-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gold dips on strong US dollar

Gold keeled over from its $1,729 early October high as the US dollar gained strength on the back of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The price of gold slid back and after four consecutive down days reached its breached upper downtrend channel resistance line, which, because of inverse polarity, is now acting as a support line at $1,665.

Slightly below it, further minor support can be found at the $1,660 3 October low, from where the last impulsive move to the upside began. Further down lies the $1,655 mid-September low.

Resistance remains to be seen between the July and early September lows at $1,681 to $1,689.

11102022XAUUSD-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures flirt with 200-day SMA

US natural gas futures revisit the 200-day SMA at $6.701 on weaker demand as global recession fears once again rear their head.

The front month futures contract already tested and then bounced off its 200-day SMA last week when it dropped to a 2 ½ month low at $6.370 before recovering.

After three consecutive days of falling prices, the odds look high for the current early October low at $6.370 to be retested, a fall through which would engage the 12 July $5.955 low as well as the July low at $5.330.

Resistance comes in between the 27 and 29 September as well as the current October highs at $7.147 to $7.260.

11102022NG-Daily.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and silver edge up after recent losses

Commodities have fallen back in recent trading, but are attempting to rebound this morning.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 October 2022 

Gold still in bearish move

Losses have stalled for now around $1650, but the lower high from last week remains in place.

The reversal around $1732 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) confirmed the downtrend once again, and puts the lows of $1620 back into play as an initial downside target.

A revival above $1690 might suggest a fresh move towards the 50-day SMA, and then on to $1730.

Gold_121022.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI fights to hold 50-day moving average

After the surge from the lows of late September the price has dropped back to the 50-day SMA, but appears to be finding support around this level and at yesterday’s lows.

A revival from here would suggest a more neutral view, at least until the price moves back above the late August high at $98. This would also then put it back above the 200-day SMA as well, helping to build a more bullish view.

A close back below the 50-day SMA would reinforce the view that a lower high has been created and that a move towards $80 or even back to the September lows is in prospect.

WTI_121022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Silver reversal slows

Silver prices reversed course sharply last week from their high above $21.

The straight-line reversal over the past three sessions has carried the price back below the 50-day SMA. Additional losses now target the $18 and $17.50 lows from September.

Should the price bounce back above the 50-day SMA and above $19.50 then a higher low could be created and the price head back towards $21.

Silver_121022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and Brent crude prices turn lower as orange juice turns upwards once again

Gold and Brent crude at risk of bearish continuations, while orange juice prices turn upwards once again after Hurricane Ian.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 October 2022 

Gold struggles to rise up through key $1677 resistance level

Gold's attempt at regaining lost ground yesterday appears to be falling somewhat flat, with price struggling to break through the key $1677 resistance level. The level represents the previous lows respected over the course of 2021 and 2022 until recently.

With price having rallied back up into the descending trendline, there is a good chance we see another leg lower for this market. However, traders should keep a close eye out for this recent consolidation just below resistance, with a rise through $1677 providing a signal of impending short-term upside.

To the downside, a break back below the $1661 level would bring about a fresh sell signal, with gold then able to build on the bearish trend that has been playing out over the course of the year thus far.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to roll over after OPEC lift

Brent crude has been on the back foot over the course of this week, with price reversing lower in the wake of an upside pop last week.

That rally came after OPEC decided to reduce output by two million barrels per day, driving upside as the supply-demand dynamic shifts. Nonetheless, with the recessionary clouds continuing to build, we are seeing crude head lower once again.

A rise up through the wider swing-high of $103.45 would bring about a greater confidence that we will see prices reach uncomfortably lofty levels once again. Until then, the declines we are seeing look likely to bring further downside.

The decline out of overbought territory on the stochastic provides us with a secondary bearish signal that similarly points towards potential downside here.

Brent chartSource: ProRealTime

Orange juice heads into 5-year high after Hurricane Ian

Orange juice prices have been pushing higher once again this week, with price starting to turn up towards levels not seen since the end of 2016.

Recent weather conditions in Florida have been tough, with an already small crop exacerbated by Hurricane Ian which is expected to further damage the supply of orange juice.

The chart highlights an ongoing uptrend which has dominated over the course of the year, with a break back below the $163.45 level required to bring about a more bearish outlook.

Until then, there is a good chance we see price push upwards from here to build on the ongoing uptrend.

Orange juice chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and oil recover, but coffee goes off the boil

Gold and oil prices have bounced back from Thursday’s post-CPI lows but coffee prices remain under pressure.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloombeg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 October 2022 

Gold shines after recovery from lows

Losses stalled yesterday and the price rebounded from $1640. But in the near-term the downtrend is still intact.

A recovery above $1680 might help boost the short-term bullish view and lead to a move back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $1711.

A reversal back below $1650 would hand the initiative to the sellers and open the way to $1640 and then down to $1620.

The overall downtrend is still in place, and it would need a move back above $1730 to alter that to a more neutral view in the medium-term.

GOld_141022.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI revives following CPI figures

After rebounding back above the 50-day SMA yesterday following the US CPI reading the picture suggests a renewed move towards last week’s high at $92.50.

The developing bearish view of a lower high this week that then opens the way to the September lows may well be negated, particularly if the price holds above the $88 level.

From here the 200-day SMA (currently $97.36) and also the late August high come into view.

A reversal back below $85 would hand the sellers the initiative and revive the bearish outlook.

WTI_141022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Coffee brews up a fresh two-month low

Coffee prices slumped yesterday, building on the bearish moves seen over the past month and more.

The move below the 200-day and 100-day SMA certainly leaves the sellers with the upper hand. Trendline resistance from the August high continues to cap gains, as we saw this week.

Overall the downward move looks set to continue, further eating into the gains from the July low. It would require a move back above 2150 to at least break trendline resistance and suggest a revival.

Coffee_141022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude, and lumber likely to weaken once again

Gold, Brent crude and lumber look likely to decline further despite the recent counter-trend gains.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 October 2022 

Gold starts the week on a positive footing

Gold experienced a largely negative week just gone, with the gains seen over the beginning of the month fading in favour of the bears.

The wider bearish trend does remain intact, and that is likely to persist as the Federal Reserve (Fed) now knows that we are not seeing a substantial uptick in unemployment.

The rise in core inflation highlights the fact that despite energy prices helping take some of the heat off headline CPI, there are plenty of sticky underlying inflation pressures that the Fed needs to address.

While this week has started on a more positive note, we are likely to see further weakness play out here. As such, near-term upside is there to be sold into, with a rise through the $1684 level required to bring a wider rebound into play.

Until then, bearish positions are favoured here.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude heads lower despite OPEC cut

Brent crude has been the subject of intense scrutiny of late, with the OPEC decision to slash production by two million barrels per day (bpd) raising fears of another spike in energy inflation.

Comments out of OPEC last night saw Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, claim that the decision was not politically motivated and did not reflect a willingness to side with Russia over the US. Quite whether Joe Biden plans to take action in response remains to be seen.

Thankfully we have seen prices drift lower since the 7 October peak, with price having reversed from the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level at $98.54.

A rise back up through the likes of $94.29 and $97.94 would bring a more positive outlook, with the bears expected to be in charge until then.

Crude oil chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber rally takes price into notable bearish reversal zone

Lumber has been regaining lost ground over the course of October thus far, with price having managed to push through the crucial historical $460 support level in the process.

However, despite these gains, we are up into a key zone of resistance, with a descending trendline and 76.4% Fibonacci level coming into play here.

The downtrend is clearly defined, and we would need to break up through the likes of $530 and $578 if we are to call a bottom here. Until that happens, this looks to represent a potential area for another bearish reversal to take hold for lumber.

The stochastic oscillator provides yet another signal to watch, with a move back out of overbought (80) bringing a signal that has proven highly reliable over the course of this 2022 sell-off.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas prices remain under pressure

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas amid global recession fears and Russian drone attacks on Ukraine.

OilSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 October 2022 

Brent crude oil revisits $90 zone

Brent crude oil’s slide from its $98.00 early October high has taken it back to the minor psychological $90 mark which so far acts as support despite global recession fears lingering following warnings of a slowdown last week from the IMF and World Bank.

A slip through $90.00 would most likely lead to further falls towards the $86.99 early September low being witnessed. Slightly above this level the late September high can be spotted at $88.69 and the 19 September low at $87.62.

Immediate resistance above the two-week resistance line and 21 September high at $92.42 to $92.53 can be seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $93.04.

While the price of Brent crude oil remains below its last relative high, a high on a daily candlestick which is higher than that of the previous and next candle, it remains in a short-term downtrend. The last one was formed last Friday at $94.29.

Brent crude chartSource: ProRealTime

Gold remains under pressure

Gold continues to slide from its $1,729 early October high as the US dollar continues to give back some of its recent gains as risk on sentiment enters the market on the back of the UK government’s u-turn on nearly all of its previously promised tax cuts.

The price of gold has so far successfully been trying to hold above last week’s $1,641 per troy ounce low, a fall through which remains on the cards, though, as long as the resistance zone made up of the July and early September lows at $1,681 to $1,689 caps.

A drop through $1,641 would engage the September trough at $1,616. Immediate resistance is seen along the October resistance line at $1,661.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures trade in 3-month lows

US natural gas futures, which for much of last week traded along the 200-day SMA at $6.768, on Monday gapped lower to three-month lows on weaker demand as global recession fears remain in investors’ minds.

The front month futures contract slid through the $6.370 early October low and has the 12 July low at $5.955 in its sight, ahead of the June and July troughs at $5.360 to $5.330. This should remain the case as long as natural gas stays below its $7.260 early October high.

Below it resistance can be found along the breached July-to-October support line, now because of inverse polarity resistance line, at $6.550, the September-to-October resistance line at $6.700, 200-day SMA at $6.768 and the 12 October high at $6.964.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, silver and oil come under pressure

Following a modest recovery for gold and silver over the last two days, these markets are heading lower again, while oil prices continue to falter.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 October 2022 

Gold weakness returns

Gold prices have fallen again after a modest rebound from the lows of the end of last week.

The price has now fallen below those lows, and looks set to challenge the lows of late September, towards $1620. Bellow $1615 the price will create a fresh lower low and open the way to $1600.

Trendline resistance from the October highs has constrained any upward progress over the past three weeks, and it would need a move back above $1650 to suggest a bounce is at hand.

Gold_191022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Silver turns lower

Like gold, the price has recovered over the past two days, but has encountered some weakness today.

Unlike gold, the price of silver has managed to hold last week’s low, rather than pushing on below. This defence of $18 over the past month sets the stage for a possible bounce, although a move above $19 would likely be needed to provide further evidence.

Silver_191022.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI holds its ground for now

Crude has stabilised after suffering three days of losses, with Tuesday’s drop taking the price to its lowest level in three weeks.

Further declines continue to target the low from late September at $76.50, and below this a lower low would provide further reinforcement of the downtrend.

Buyers will hope that the price can move back above $85 and provide scope for a bounce, in the process creating a higher low and potentially targeting the highs from mid-October at $92.50.

WTI_191022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold falls further, while Brent crude and lumber start to regain lost ground

Gold continues to move lower, while Brent crude and lumber start to regain lost ground to raise the potential for a bullish reversal.

GoldSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 20 October 2022 

Gold continues its downward trajectory

Gold has remained under pressure this week, with price falling back towards the September low of $1615.

Gold has been having a hard time of it during this crisis, with price action for the precious metal taking a very different course to that seen during other major market sell-offs. The fact that this crisis is driven by a need to combat inflation means that interest rates are raised rather than lowered, bringing greater attraction to the US dollar.

While the completion of this tightening stage could benefit gold, there will also be questions over just how swiftly inflation will drop or whether it will remain entrenched and require higher rates for longer.

With UK inflation reaching double digits this week, we are looking unlikely to turn that course quite yet. As such, further downside looks likely here, with a break below the $1615 level signalling the beginning of another extension lower.

To the upside, a rise through $1735 would be required to bring about a bullish reversal for gold.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude starts to strengthen as Biden warns of further SPR releases

Brent crude has started to regain ground since Tuesday's decline into the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.

Recent comments from US president, Joe Biden signal his willingness to release further crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, but that instead serves to highlight the fact that this huge supply has been drained heavily under his leadership with a view to artificially keep energy prices low.

Thus, there is a chance that price reverses higher once those sales stop and the US have to start refilling the reserves once again. For now that is not the case, but with OPEC cutting production, and US SPR sales drying up there is good chance that things start turning upwards before too long.

The recent rise through $95.19 brought about a wider 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, but the subsequent sell-off could come under pressure if price moves up through $94.29 resistance. Such a break would signal the potential for a near-term rebound, with the bears remaining in charge until such an upside break occurs.

Brent crude chartSource: ProRealTime

Lumber rises through trendline resistance but bearish trend continues

Lumber has managed to break back up through both the $460 resistance level and descending trendline this week, with price building on a recovery phase that has dominated October thus far.

From a seasonality perspective, the final three months of the year often provide a dramatic resurgence for lumber. Thus, it is worthwhile noting the potential for a resurgence from here, with a push through $578 required to signal the end of this current bearish trend.

Until we see price break through resistance, there is still a chance that we see this ongoing downtrend continue once again.

Lumber chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and natural gas prices under pressure

Commodity prices have come under pressure once again as the dollar rises following recent weakness.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 21 October 2022 

Gold returns to one-month low

The price has fallen back to the lows of late September, after faltering in early October at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and $1725.

A further decline from current levels opens the way to a test of support down towards $1550 in the medium-term. A drop through $1620 would create a lower low, reinforcing the downtrend.

A recovery above $1640 might suggest a short-term recovery, although for now the downtrend is firmly intact.

Gold_211022.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI struggles in early trading

Crude prices rallied off the lows earlier in the week, but a continued surge yesterday ran into the 50-day SMA and then fell back.

Nonetheless, the price has actually been able to move above trendline resistance from the October high, setting the stage for a more short-term bullish view if the price can recover the 50-day SMA. This might then open the way back to the early October highs.

A reversal back below $83.80 would but the price below trendline resistance and then suggest another push down towards the September low at $76.47.

WTI_211022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas hits fresh three-month low

Prices here have slumped dramatically over the past week, wiping out most of the rest of the gains made over the summer.

Additional declines seem to target the 5330 area from the end of June, as expectations of weaker demand due to warmer weather prompt further losses.

Any initial recovery from current levels would first target 6500, and then on to the 200-day SMA (currently 6790).

Gas_211022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber remain within bearish trend

Gold, Brent crude and lumber all show the potential for another turn lower, with resistance remaining intact for now.

BG_gold_.21981919.pngSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 October 2022 

Gold rebound looks to be shortlived

Gold has been hit hard over the course of the year thus far, with price currently down 20% on the March peak of $2070.

The failure of gold to perform in the face of an economic crisis has plenty to do with the rare scenario that interest rates are hiked during a recession. Quite how gold reacts to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) completion of their hiking phase around year-end remains to be seen.

However, it may be the case that gold only starts to really pick up steam once we see inflation turning lower in a manner that raises belief that rates could soon be slashed. For now, that is not the case.

As such, further downside looks likely before long, with the current rally simply looking like another retracement phase before we turn lower once again.

A break up through the $1729 swing-high would be required to negate that bearish outlook.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_10_24-08h59.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to roll over after latest rebound

Brent crude has been on the back foot since the OPEC-led peak of $98, with price turning lower from the 76.4% Fibonacci region.

The OPEC decision to cut production does signal a willingness to impact supply in a bid to drive up prices. However, as long as rising prices drive down consumption volumes, and the US draws its Strategic Petroleum Reserves down, there remains a good chance we head lower here.

From this daily perspective, it is obvious that the bearish trend remains intact. However, a push up through the $$103.46 swing-high would negate that negative outlook.

LCO-Daily-2022_10_24-09h06.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber rises into Fibonacci resistance

Lumber has been regaining ground over the course of the past week, with price rising into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance at $540.

This year has been a difficult one for lumber bulls, but seasonal trends do highlight a propensity to rally into year-end. For now, we are yet to see price break into a bullish position, with this Fibonacci level instead providing the potential for another downward turn here.

However, with that historical trend of strengthening in the fourth quarter, a rise through the $578 swing-high would bring about a more positive outlook for lumber.

LB-Daily-2022_10_24-09h22.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber likely to head lower once more

Gold, Brent crude and lumber turn lower, with further downside expected to take hold as bearish trends continue to play out.

BG_Gold_bar.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 25 October 2022 

Gold continues to head lower after recent rebound

Gold has struggled to maintain the bullish trajectory seen on Friday, with the wider bearish theme swiftly coming back into play.

The underperformance of gold does look likely to continue if the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains on a tightening path, with gold likely to come in focus once the dollar bull market comes to an end. That is likely to be someway down the line, with yesterday’s PMI data highlighting the potential sharp downturn facing us.

With that in mind, the recent rebound was always likely to be a short-term phenomenon, with a rise through $1729 required to bring about a more bullish view.

Until then, the bearish trend holds for gold.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_10_25-08h52.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude likely to drift lower after consolidation

Brent crude has been consolidating for much of the past week, with price struggling to maintain the bearish trajectory seen since the OPEC+ peak seen in early-October.

From a long-term perspective, Brent does remain in an uptrend since the Covid lows in early-2020. However, whether we are set to resume that uptrend from here remains to be seen.

A break up through the $103.46 swing-high would bring greater confidence that the bulls are back in charge. For now, we continue to drift lower following that OPEC spike.

A break back below the $87.98 support level does look the likely exit from this consolidation, with further short-term downside expected as fears around recessionary consumption levels dent sentiment.

Conversely, a rise through $94.34 would be required to bring expectations of a near term push higher.

LCO-Daily-2022_10_25-09h03.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber turns lower after deep Fibonacci retracement

Lumber has turned sharply lower yesterday, with price losing over 5% in a move that could mark the beginning of another bearish phase.

This year has been dominated by a trend of lower highs and lower lows, with this recent rebound asking questions of that pattern once again.

However, with price having respected the 76.4% Fibonacci level, there is a good chance we see another leg lower for lumber from here. That bearish outlook holds unless we see price rise through the $578.70 swing-high.

LB-Daily-2022_10_25-09h14.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and natural gas prices recover but oil comes under pressure

Gold and natural gas are moving higher, the latter enjoying a strong two-day rally. Meanwhile oil prices are looking at risk of a further drop.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 26 October 2022 

Gold reverses Tuesday’s weakness

Dollar weakness has provided space for gold to recover, rebounding from yesterday’s low and reversing the bearish impression for the time being.

Additional gains might now target the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $1689, in a similar fashion to the early October rebound that took the price from $1620 to $1720.

Beyond the 50-day, the September/October highs at $1730 loom. A reversal once again brings the $1620 support zone into view.

Gold_261022.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI heads lower in early trading

Oil prices have been stuck in a range in recent days, although they are weaker this morning.

A continued downward move from the October high looked to be in progress earlier in the month, but it stalled around the $82.50 level. While losses were halted, gains proved unsustainable, and a push back towards the 50-day SMA met with selling.

The price is edging lower this morning, which may lead to another test of $82.50, while a move below $81 would mark a resumption of the downward move and bring the September low at $76.60 into view as well.

A drop below the September low would then start the process of creating a lower low, reinforcing the view that oil is now in a downtrend.

WTI_261022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas surges for a second day

Prices here have staged a huge rebound from the lows of the month, after a straight-line decline during the middle of October.

The sudden surge has seen the price recoup the losses of the past week, although with the price still firmly below the 200-day SMA some might wonder if this bounce is sustainable. Additional gains target the 6500 area.

A reversal would suggest a lower high is being created, adding to the bearish view that developed following the drop this month below the 200-day SMA.

Gas_261022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber remain within downtrend despite short-term gains

Gold, Brent crude and lumber continue to remain within bearish trends, with short-term gains yet to reverse the outlook.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 27 October 2022 

Gold starts to fade after short-term rebound

Gold has been regaining lost ground over the course of the past week, with price rising from the lows of $1615 to yesterdays high of $1675.

While the Bank of Canada (BoC) helped to lift sentiment around a slowing rate of hikes, the focus turns to the European Central Bank (ECB) today.

Whether gold traders will take the push into terminal rates as a cause to buy once again remains to be seen, with the coming months likely to hammer home the point that it could take some time to see that course reversed into a new tightening phase.

Price is struggling around the historical resistance level of $1677, with the recent push looking like yet another retracement phase set within a long-term downtrend.

As such, another turn lower looks likely before long, with a rise through trendline resistance and the $1729 swing-high required to negate this seven-month downtrend.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_10_27-08h49.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rebounds into near-term resistance level

Brent crude has started to show signs of a resurgence, with price turning upwards into intraday resistance yesterday.

The OPEC decision to cut production by two-million barrels per day helped the bullish side of the story, but markets remain concerned over how demand could wane thanks to global inflationary pressures and a recessionary environment.

A break through the $94.34 resistance level would be the first sign of strength, with $98.00 the next major resistance level that needs to be overcome for the bulls to gain confidence. Until then, the bearish trend remains dominant.

LCO-Daily-2022_10_27-08h55.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber respects $460 support once again

Lumber has shown signs that it is heading back into another leg lower following a rebound into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level at $540.

However, yesterday saw price find support at the historically important $460 support level. That will provide a key hurdle for bears, but we ultimately remain within a bearish trend until price breaks through the $578 swing-high.

As such, further downside looks likely until we are shown otherwise.

LB-Daily-2022_10_27-09h15.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and natural gas fall back in early trading

A rising dollar has put pressure on commodity prices again.

BG_gold_bar_098098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 28 October 2022 

Gold drops below $1660

As the dollar strengthens again, gold is once again coming under pressure.

Continued losses from the current level following this weak bounce would put the price back on course to target $1620, reviving the downtrend of the past few months.

A reversal above $1670 is needed to indicate a recovery is developing.

Gold_281022.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI’s move higher hit by stronger dollar

Just when the oil rally appeared to be heading into its stride, we have a stronger dollar to contend with.

Unlike gold, the picture appears somewhat more appealing for bulls, given the recovery above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the limited downtrend seen since the break below the 200-day SMA in August.

Sellers may think about staying their hand until they see at least a drop back below the 50-day SMA.

Further gains would target $92.40 and the highs from early October.

WTI_281022.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas reversal continues

The bounce from the beginning of the week has now gone into reverse, and a test of the support zone around 5350 now looks likely once again.

Additional declines target 5180 and then 4760, the latter having been an area of short-term support in November 2021.

Buyers need a recovery above 6270 to suggest that another push towards the 200-day SMA is in progress.

Gas_281022.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber turn lower after recent rebound

Gold, Brent crude and lumber head lower once again, with a potential dollar resurgence again putting commodities under pressure.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 31 October 2022 

Gold rolls over after recent rebound

Gold has started to fade after a period of upside that took price up towards the latest swing-high of $1735.

The bearish trajectory of gold is well established here, and we are yet to see anything that informs us of an impending bearish turn for this precious metal. Much of this comes down to the dominance of the dollar as a haven, with rising interest rates serving to lessen the interest in gold.

Instead, it has to settle for a risk-on role, with gold recently performing better at times of market recovery. With that in mind, there is a good chance we see gold remain under pressure as rising inflation/rates bring expectations of prolongued downside.

As such, bearish positions are favoured unless price manages to push up through the $1735 swing-high.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_10_31-08h40.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude rallies into trendline resistance

Brent crude has been trading in a somewhat indecisive phase of late, with the intervention of OPEC serving to shift sentiment for a market that has been reliably bearish over the course of the past seven months.

Joe Biden’s desire to keep prices depressed in the lead up to the midterm election could come into question next month, with the continued SPR releases ultimately a policy that is unsustainable.

A break up through the recent high of $98.00 would bring greater confidence of a bullish recovery coming into play. However, until that happens, the recent rise into the 76.4% Fibonacci signals the potential for a bearish continuation for Brent crude.

LCO-Daily-2022_10_31-08h57.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber heads lower after recent deep retracement

Lumber has been reversing lower over the course of the past week, with the bearish trend seen over the course of the year coming back into play once again.

With price having managed to break down through the critical $460 support level last month, there is a good chance we continue to head lower. That has proven to be the case, with the latest rebound turning lower at the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level.

As such, another leg lower looks likely for lumber, with a rise through the $578 swing-high required to bring a bullish reversal signal for this commodity.

LB-Daily-2022_10_31-09h12.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber likely to remain under pressure despite short-term rise

Gold, Brent crude and lumber expected to continue their trend lower, with short-term upside unlikely to last.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 01 November 2022 

Gold attempts to regain ground, but downtrend holds

Gold is on the front foot today, with the precious metal currently on track to form a bullish engulfing pattern.

This could signal the potential for a renewed period of upside like that seen in late September, bringing price back towards trendline resistance.

However, any near-term upside looks to be a fresh selling opportunity, with a bearish trend remaining in play until price breaks the pattern of lower highs.

With that in mind, watch for further downside, with a rise through the $1729 swing-high required to bring about a more positive outlook for gold.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_11_01-08h25.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude indecision holds, with early gains highlighting resurgence possibility

Brent crude is on the front foot this morning, with price turning upward from an ascending trendline that has dominated this week thus far.

With recession fears denting the demand outlook, we have seen price come under pressure over recent months. However, the actions of OPEC+ do highlight the potential for a move higher once the US stop drawing down the SPR.

For now, we are awaiting the resolution to the US mid-term election, with any sign of reversing this policy likely to bring upside for crude.

We would need to see price rise through the $97.94 level to bring greater confidence that the bulls are going to come back into prominence.

Conversely, a move back below $87.98 would signal a continuation of this recent bearish phase.

LCO-Daily-2022_11_01-08h44.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber continues to trend lower

Lumber has continued its decline, with price heading lower since the rise into the confluence of 76.4% Fibonacci and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance.

The wider bearish trend continues to signal weakness for the pair, with the break below $460 signalling the potential for another move into the $415 lows seen back in late-September.

A move up through the $578 swing-high would signal the end of this current downtrend, with the bearish trend expected to continue until we see that upside break.

LB-Daily-2022_11_01-08h55.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold and natural gas rally, but oil drops back

While gold and natural gas have pushed higher, oil is weakening, but all depends on what the Fed decides later today.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 02 November 2022 

Gold rallies for a second day

The price continues to bounce from the $1630 level, holding this area as support.

Additional upside would target the declining 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1679, and then on towards $1685, previously a key area of support and resistance.

Much of this move has been driven by the weaker dollar, so a reversal of this in the wake of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could result in another push back to $1630.

Gold_021122.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI mixed on Fed decision day

Prices here have moved back to the $88.50 area, but with no desire as yet to continue moving higher.

Trendline support from the September low continues to come into play, preventing any further downside for now, although a move below $85 would see this line broken. This might then bring $76.50 back into view.

Continued gains above $86 would open the way to the 100-day SMA ($91.77) and then on to the October high at $92.50.

WTI_021122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas rallies ahead of FOMC

It has been a choppy three weeks for the commodity, rallying but then dropping back in subsequent sessions.

Trendline support has provided areas for buyers to muster their strength since the October low, but with the 50-day SMA rapidly declining the spectre of a longer-term move to the downside begins to loom large.

Further gains target the 200-day SMA, currently 6870.

Gas_021122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber at risk of further downside as rate hikes bring recessionary fears

Gold, Brent crude and lumber at risk of further downside as the dollar comes into strength and recessionary fears grow.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 03 November 2022 

Gold heads lower as dollar comes back into strength

Gold has turned lower once again, with the early gains seen yesterday fading thanks to a hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from Powell & Co.

With trendline resistance having held up once again, it looks likely that we are set to continue the wider bearish trend once more.

To the downside, the major hurdle to overcome is the $1615 support level, with a break below that threshold bringing the lowest reading since April 2020.

As such, bearish positions remain in favour, with further downside looking likely should Friday’s payrolls decline as expected.

A break up through $1677 would be required to bring some short-term respite from this view.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_11_03-09h16.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude gaining ground, with key resistance up ahead

Brent crude has been on the rise over the past week, with price slowly grinding higher towards the $97.94 resistance level. A rise through that level would bring an inverse head and shoulders pattern, signalling the potential for a bullish resurgence.

However, it will ultimately take a break up through the $103.45 level to bring an end to the bearish trend dominating throughout the June-October period.

That trend does still hold for now, with the recent 76.4% Fibonacci retracement meaning that there is still a risk of a downward turn unless price breaks through that $97.94 level.

LCO-Daily-2022_11_03-09h26.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber maintains bearish path

Lumber has been hit hard over the course of the past year, with price falling back into a two-year low in September.

The recent rebound looks to have simply provided another bearish retracement, with price turning lower from the 76.4% Fibonacci level and 100-day simple moving average (SMA). This brings expectations of another leg lower, which appears to be taking shape.

As such, bearish positions remain in play, with a move up through $578 needed to negate that negative outlook.

LB-Daily-2022_11_03-09h34.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, oil and natural gas move up in early trading

Commodity prices have moved up this morning, shrugging off some of the weakness seen earlier in the week.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 04 November 2022 

Gold rebounds from support again

The commodity continues to mount an impressive defence of the $1630 zone.

While it tried to rally on Wednesday and was knocked back by a stronger dollar, a dip to $1615 on Thursday found buyers once again, as others have done since the end of September.

This puts the downtrend on pause, although recent bounces have been contained at or just above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), so the recovery could be limited.

Gold_041122.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI moving up again

Oil prices have found renewed strength too, moving up after Wednesday’s indecision and Thursday’s drop.

Rising trendline support continues to underpin the move, supported by rising stochastics and MACD readings. For now the downtrend from June is still intact, though a move back above the early October high at $92.35 might begin to suggest the outlook has moved back to a neutral one.

A failure to move on above the 100-day SMA, or a drop below trendline support and the $85 level, would signal a new move lower.

WTI_041122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas rebounds towards resistance

Like oil, the price has been able to push higher in early trading, but resistance looms.

It has been a very choppy week, with plenty of movement in both directions, but to little real effect. The price remains supported by trendline support from the October low, but now it needs to push on above the 6300 area, which marked the highs over the past week.

Beyond this looms the 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA is rapidly declining, raising the prospect of a bearish crossover here in the weeks to come.

Gas_041122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber could decline after recent gains

Gold, Brent crude and lumber remain at risk of a bearish move after the recent period of upside.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 07 November 2022 

Gold starts to weaken from trendline resistance

Gold enjoyed a dramatic recovery on Friday, with the precious metal pushing up through the $1677 resistance level for the first time in three weeks.

That move has taken us up into the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a descending trendline dating back to March.

This market remains within a clear bearish downtrend over the course of the year, and thus we expect to see another bout of losses come into play despite this recent rebound.

A rise through $1729 would be required to negate that bearish trend. Until then, this latest rebound provides a fresh selling opportunity for gold.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_11_07-07h34.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude struggles at Fibonacci resistance

Brent crude has been showing signs of a bullish resurgence of late, with price tentatively breaking through the $97.94 resistance on Friday. That move highlights the potential for an upside reversal following months of downside for crude.

However, the decline in early trade today does highlight the existence of the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level at $98.54, with this rebound still looking like a potential retracement of the $103.46-82.65 sell-off until price breaks through the $103.45 swing-high.

As such, this market does still remain within a key junction, where a break lower from this Fibonacci level is still possible, but a break through $103.45 would bring expectations of another drive higher for Brent.

LCO-Daily-2022_11_07-07h49.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber falls back into key support

Lumber has been on the back foot over the course of the past fortnight, with price falling into the lowest level since late-September.

Keep an eye out for the stochastic oscillator, with a move up through the 20 threshold signalling the potential for another upward retracement phase. Until we see such a signal, further downside looks likely to continue apace.

The next major hurdle comes in the form of the $415 support level, with a break below that threshold bringing a fresh two-year low.

LB-Daily-2022_11_07-08h05.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas rallies pause amid US midterm elections

Technical analysis on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas within their fundamental context.

OilSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 08 November 2022 

Brent crude oil rally is taking a breather

Brent crude oil’s rally above its $98.00 early October high has taken it to a three-month high at $99.06 on Monday before pausing ahead of US midterm elections.

Minor resistance above $99.06 comes in around the psychological $100 mark and also along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $101.79 whereas support below Monday’s low at $96.43 can be spotted at the $95.19 mid-September high. Further down lies the $94.29 mid-October high which may also offer support, if revisited at all.

While the price of Brent crude oil remains above its last relative low, a low on a daily candlestick which is lower than that of the previous and next candle, it remains in an uptrend. The last one was formed in late October at $91.36.

Brent chartSource: ProRealTime

Swift gold rally stalls below key resistance zone

Gold’s swift rally by over $50 last Friday on rumours of China relaxing its strict Covid-19 restrictions took the precious metal to its key $1,681 to $1,689 per troy ounce resistance zone which caps it for the time being, ahead of US midterm election results.

This resistance zone consists of the July and early September lows and, because of inverse polarity, now acts as resistance, together with the 55-day SMA and the August-to-November downtrend line.

Were it to be overcome, the minor psychological $1,700 mark would be back in the picture with the October peak at $1,729. Slips may find support around the mid-September low at $1,655.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

Strong US natural gas futures’ rally followed by retracement lower

US natural gas futures, which on Monday gapped higher to a near two-month high by rising by 8% on renewed inflation fears to $7.323, are seen giving back some of their sharp gains and are likely to close their gap with Friday’s high at $6.609.

According to IG’s senior market analyst, Joshua Mahony, this week’s surge in the price of natural gas occurred “as weather forecasts signal a colder-than-normal December in Northwest Europe” and as traders questioned the “European ability to fill their tanks next year in absence of all Russian imports.”

Support below Friday’s high at $6.609 can be found between the late October high and the early October low at $6.428 to $6.370.

The front month futures contract managed to rally to the 55-day SMA, now at $7.277, which capped it on Monday, however. If bettered, the August low at $7.545 would be back in the frame.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold rally continues but oil and natural gas drop back

Gold’s surge has carried it back to the 100-day MA, while oil and gas prices have come back under pressure.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 09 November 2022 

Gold returns to 100-day MA

The price of gold has returned to the 100-day moving average (MA) for the first time since early May.

The rebound from support around $1630 has seen the price push on above the 50-day MA, and with a sharp gain yesterday it now sits just below the early October high.

A move above $1690 would likely suggest a neutral outlook for now, suspending the downtrend of recent months.

Gold_091122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Oil prices head towards support

The price has come under pressure over the last two days, dropping back towards trendline support from the October low.

If this holds then a fresh move higher may result, potentially targeting $93 and then the 200-day SMA at $97.60. This would continue to reverse the bearish view of recent months.

Below the trendline support we would look for a push towards $82, and then on down to $76.50.

WTI_091122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas retreats again

Gas prices have fallen sharply from their text of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at the beginning of the week.

Now the price is moving back to trendline support from the October low, with a move below 6000 likely to suggest a fresh bearish move is underway.

A bounce from trendline support might see the price recover towards the 200-day SMA (6919).

Gas_091122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold, Brent crude and lumber heading lower as dollar starts to strengthen

Gold, Brent crude and lumber heading lower as a resurgent dollar threatens to drive commodities' weakness.

bg_gold_368042391.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 10 November 2022 

Gold rallies into deep retracement trendline

Gold has started to show signs that momentum could be on the turn after a week that has seen price surge into a one-month high yesterday. That rebound has taken price back into the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), with price starting to lose traction at that key resistance level.

The rebound in risk assets has largely been the cause of this recent rebound, and thus a bearish turn for equities would be needed to similarly send gold lower from here. However, that is a distinct possibility.

As such, the recent rally remains a retracement unless price manages to break up through the $1735 swing-high. Until then, watch for a potential bearish reversal, with a move below 80 on the stochastic providing a clue that momentum could be shifting in favour of the bears once again.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_11_10-07h51.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude reverses lower from Fibonacci resistance

Brent crude has seen a sharp bout of losses this week, with recent gains faltering at the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level ($98.54).

The long-term picture does still provide a relatively optimistic outlook, but quite how such a bullish turnaround comes into play remains to be seen.

For now, the downtrend continues to dominate, with the decline from Fibonacci resistance highlighting the fact that we remain within a wider trend of lower highs unless price breaks through the $103.46 level.

As things stand, price looks likely to challenge the $91.17 support level, with a break below that point bringing expectations of further short-term downside.

LCO-Daily-2022_11_10-07h58.pngSource: ProRealTime

Lumber falls back into $415 support

Lumber has continued its bearish pathway, with this crucial building material heading for the lowest level in over two years if the current trajectory is anything to go by.

The 76.4% Fibonacci retracement held perfectly on this occasion, with the bearish trend continuing apace. The $415 support level is going to be key in determining whether we will maintain this trajectory, but it does look likely that price could stage another upward retracement before too long.

A move up through the 20 threshold on the stochastic would provide that signal of an impending rebound for this market. Until then, another move lower looks likely as we extend the bearish trend that has dominated much of 2022.

LB-Daily-2022_11_10-08h10.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Commodity prices recover as dollar weakens

The falling dollar has provided gold, oil and natural gas with the chance to rally sharply.

BG_gold_bar_098098098.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 11 November 2022 

Gold surges to ten-week high

The CPI reading yesterday prompted another big move up for gold, which is now at its highest level since late August.

The price has cleared the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) over the past week, and now looks set to push on towards $1800 and the August high, with the 200-day SMA (currently $1803) close to this.

After this huge move up from support around $1630, it would take a drop back below $1700 to suggest that the sellers have reasserted control.

Gold_111122.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI recoups lost ground

A weakening dollar has given oil the space to move higher again after a move down earlier in the week.

The drop of Tuesday and Wednesday saw the price give back ground, but it found support around $84 yesterday following the CPI reading, and has now pushed higher in early trading today. This puts the October and November highs around $92.40 back into play, with the 200-day SMA above this (currently $97.58).

Sellers seem to have handed control to the buyers, and it would need a drop back below $85 to suggest the bearish view has been revived.

WTI_111122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Gas prices edge towards three-day high

The rebound in gas prices has been less impressive than in gold and oil, but still suggests that another move higher could be in the works.

The price finds itself knocking on 6500, and a move above here would put it on course to move on to the 200-day SMA at 6930.

Sellers will want to see a drop below 6000 to revive the bearish view that was begun with the move below the 200-day SMA in October.

Gas_111122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Gold pushes higher, while Brent crude and natural gas fade recent gains

Gold outperforms, as Brent crude and natural gas provide a more questionable outlook as recent gains fade.

bg_gold_bar_bullion.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 14 November 2022 

Gold surges after US CPI print

Gold managed to close out its best week this year following the decline in US inflation announced on Thursday.

That news sparked a surge which brought price up through the key $1735 swing-high, ending the 2022 trend of lower highs. We also saw a double bottom formation completed in the process, with gold bulls evidently more confident after a tough eight months that saw the precious metal fall 22%.

A break up through the $1808 furthers the bullish cause, bringing expectations of a more protracted rebound. With price at the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level here, a more bearish position comes into play in the event of a drop through 80 for the stochastic.

Similarly, a move through the $1702 level would be required to negate the short-term intraday picture. Until then, further upside looks likely.

XAUUSD-Daily-2022_11_14-08h37.pngSource: ProRealTime

Brent crude continues to respect Fibonacci resistance

Brent crude has been attempting to regain ground over recent weeks, with price rising up into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level.

This rally comes after a protracted pullback into the wider 76.4% Fibonacci support around $81.25. There is a possibility that we see price break higher at some point given the long-term uptrend. However, we would need to see a push through the $103.46 level to end this recent pullback.

As things stand, we are continuing the respect of $98.54 resistance, signalling the potential for another turn lower. A break back below $91.17 and $87.98 would bring greater confidence of another bearish phase.

Meanwhile, a rise through Fibonacci and $103.45 resistance would be required to bring the bulls back into play.

LCO-Daily-2022_11_14-08h47.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas grinding higher after recent volatility

Natural gas has seen plenty of volatility over the course of this month thus far, with the rally into $7.261 resistance subsequently bringing another rapid decline in the subsequent days that followed.

Nonetheless, the short-term uptrend seen since the 24 October low does remain intact unless price breaks below the $5.687 level.

This points towards a potential move higher here, with the $7.261 level continuing to provide the key upside hurdle to overcome for bulls.

NG-4-hours-2022_11_14-09h06.pngSource: ProRealTime
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Brent crude and US natural gas prices under pressure while gold surge continues

Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas amid a sliding US dollar.

bg_oil_gettyimages_865943750.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 15 November 2022 

Brent crude oil pressured by demand concerns

Brent crude oil is probing its September-to-November support line and 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $91.90 as demand concerns amid resurgent Covid-19 outbreaks in top crude importer China outweigh signs of tightening supply heading into winter.

On Monday the price of Brent crude slid by over 3% and by around $4 per barrel as OPEC further trimmed its global oil demand growth projections for 2022 and 2023, citing mounting economic challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions.

Support below the 55-day SMA at $91.90 comes in at last week’s low at $91.18, a fall through which would most likely engage the psychological $90.00 mark below which the mid-October low can be spotted at $87.99.

Minor resistance sits at the 21 September high at $92.53 as well as at the 20 October high at $93.30.

While the last reaction high at $96.21, made last Friday, isn’t overcome, the short-term bias points towards further downside being seen.

Brent crude chartSource: ProRealTime

Gold surge continues amid depreciating US dollar

Gold’s swift rally by over $150, or close to 10%, from its early November low at $1,617 per troy ounce is ongoing amid a depreciating US dollar and the Republican party being one seat away from taking back control of the US House of Representatives.

The precious metal is gunning for the 200-day SMA and August peak at $1,803 to $1,808 while evolving in a clearly defined, narrow uptrend channel, which on Tuesday offers support at $1,760.

More important support can be found between the mid-September and October peaks at $1,735 to $1,729.

Gold chartSource: ProRealTime

US natural gas futures sidelined in tight range

US natural gas futures have come off last week’s two-month peak at $7.323 and slid to last week’s low at $5.899 before trading sideways over conflicting information about when Freeport LNG might return to service.

Freeport said it had not made any public statements on the timing of its highly anticipated return to service and that “any Tweets and/or posts on Freeport LNG-branded letterhead” were not legitimate.

The front month futures contract continues to range trade between last week’s low at $5.899 and Friday’s high at $6.675 and is seen slipping back towards its two-month uptrend line at $6.065.

If slid through, it is probable that not only last week’s low at $5.899 but also the late October low at $5.565 will be reached. While $6.675 caps, downside pressure should retain the upper hand.

Natural gas chartSource: ProRealTime
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Gold at 3-month high, while oil rallies, but natural gas falls back

Gold continues to bounce, while oil prices have moved off their early lows. Natural gas, however, is under some pressure.

bg_gold_363727358.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 November 2022 

Gold sits at three-month high

The price has held on to its gains from the past two weeks, and continues to target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $1802.

Yesterday saw the price push back to the $1785 level, last seen in early August. The recent break higher has put a significant dent in the downtrend, pushing above the lower high of October. Additional gains target the 200-day SMA, and then on towards $1830.

A reversal back below $1750 would be needed to suggest at least some short-term consolidation is at hand.

Gold_161122.pngSource: ProRealTime

WTI moves above 50-day MA

Prices stabilised yesterday after Monday’s drop and have moved above the 50-day SMA in early trading.

Continued defence of the $83.80 level may provide a foundation for further gains, while challenging short-term trendline resistance from last week’s highs.

A move above $87.50 would break the trendline and put the highs around $92.30 into view.

WTI_161122.pngSource: ProRealTime

Natural gas heads lower

A weaker dollar has helped support the commodity over the past two days, but that may be changing.

The price has dropped back in early trading, and now targets the 6000 level, previously an area of support last week. Gains have proven hard to sustain above 6300, so a push above here and then 6500 is needed to put the buyers back in charge.

Additional declines below 5900 put the gains from the October low at risk.

Gas_161122.pngSource: ProRealTime
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