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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD losing momentum after recent rally

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD rally starts to slow, but will we turn lower or push higher once again?

dollarSource:Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 November 2022 

EUR/USD struggling at the SMA resistance

EUR/USD has seen the upwards trajectory stutter somewhat this week, with the decline seen across equity markets similarly providing an upward move for the dollar. The recent rebound seen for this pair has been borne out-of-risk on sentiment in the wake of the declining US consumer price index (CPI) figure. However, this week has brought a timely reminder that not all is well elsewhere, with UK inflation now up to 11.1%.

The gains seen for EUR/USD do appear to have dried up to some extent, with price struggling to break through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Given the size of the rebound seen last week, there is a chance we see a pullback come into play here. A break down through $1.0271 would provide the intraday signal that a pullback could be coming into play. To the upside, a push through the recent high of $1.0481 would bring a bullish continuation signal.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD attempts to push higher after budget and retail sales

GBP/USD appears to be doing a little better here, with a wealth of data out of the UK bringing upside for the pound. Between higher inflation, improved retail sales, and consumer confidence, the Bank of England (BoE) should continue their steep pathway to higher rates.

The recent rise through trendline resistance subsequently took us through the 76.4% Fibonacci level. With that in mind, we could see further gains come into fruition, with a move back below the $1.171 required to bring a move negative short-term picture into view.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD comes under pressure after rally into resistance

AUD/USD has started to lose traction after a rally into the confluence of a descending trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance. The recent rise through $0.6547 resistance signalled a potential upward push for the pair, with the wider downtrend coming into play. As such, the current rise looks to represent a retracement of the selloff from the $0.7136 swing-high.

Quite whether this rebound ends here remains to be seen, with a push through this confluence of resistance required to signal a potential move into 76.4% Fibonacci resistance and the 200-SMA level. In either scenario, these short-term gains appear to be setting us up for another downturn before long. A rise through $0.7136 would be required to negate that outlook.

AUD/USD chartSource:ProRealTime
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EUR/USD slips, USD/JPY rises on US dollar safe haven flows while EUR/GBP drops to two-week low

Outlook on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP amid rising China Covid-19 cases.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 November 2022 

EUR/USD slips on safe-haven flows into the greenback

EUR/USD keeled over last week and slid back to its November uptrend line at $1.0261 on Monday morning as the US dollar appreciates on Covid-19 related concerns in China and acts as a safe haven currency for the third day in a row.

The one-month uptrend line may act as short-term support, but if slid through, would push the September high at $1.0198 to the fore.

Immediate resistance can be spotted at Thursday’s $1.0305 low, above which meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0409.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP tumbles to two-week lows

Last week’s slide in EUR/GBP is ongoing with the currency pair now trading in two-week lows ahead of Tuesday’s UK public sector net borrowing data release for October and Wednesday’s German and UK global manufacturing and services purchasing managers index (PMI) data for November.

The fall out of the recent £0.8828 to £0.8691 trading range is pointing to the early October low at £0.8649 soon being reached. Further down more solid support sits between the mid- and late October lows at £0.858 to £0.8572.

Minor resistance above the £0.8691 7 November low can be seen along the 55-day SMA at £0.8728 and also at the £0.8780 21 October high as well as at the £0.8828 current November peak, a currently unexpected rise above which would engage the 26 and 28 September lows at £0.8853 as well as the October peak at £0.8867.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY continues to heave itself off its 2 ½ month low

USD/JPY’s over 9% rapid slide to last week’s ¥137.68 low is taking a breather with the cross trying to regain some of its losses ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) year-on-year (YoY) Core consumer price index (CPI) data release for November which is expected to come in at 2.2% versus 2.0% in October.

Rising China Covid-19 cases and curfews have led to flight to safety flows into the US dollar which also pushed the exchange rate higher. Further consolidation above the minor psychological ¥140.00 mark is likely to be seen with first resistance being encountered around last week’s high at ¥140.80. Further minor resistance is tucked away at the ¥141.51 9 September low.

Potential slips should find support between the ¥140.00 mark and Thursday’s ¥138.88 trough. Were last week’s low at ¥137.68 to unexpectedly give way, the early-August high at ¥135.58 would be in focus. Further down meanders the 200-day SMA at ¥133.49.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD turn upwards as dollar strength eases

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 November 2022 

EUR/USD turning upwards after recent pullback

EUR/USD has started to turn upwards following a pullback that took price back down towards the $1.0198 support level. This morning has seen improved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers out of France and Germany, with French services bringing the only sector which has started to weaken across the four readings.

The recent push up through the $1.0198 swing-high brings expectations of a potential period of upside for the pair. However, it makes sense to await a break up through the $1.0481 resistance level to confirm that we have seen the end of this pullback. Until we see that upside resistance level taken out, it makes sense to remain aware of the potential for further short-term downside.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD consolidating after period of upside

GBP/USD has been consolidating since reaching a three-month high last week, with this pair trading sideways ever since. The rise through trendline resistance brings expectations of further upside, although $1.2293 remains a significant upside hurdle of note.

Keep an eye out for the UK manufacturing and services PMI readings later on this morning, with the FOMC minutes due in the evening. For now, a push up through the $1.2029 resistance level would be required to bring about a fresh buy signal.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

NZD/USD pushes higher after rate rise

NZD/USD has been an outperformer over recent weeks, as the continued push higher in interest rates from the RBNZ helps lift the pair. Interestingly, we have seen a clear divergence between Australian and New Zealand rates, as highlighted by the 75-basis point (bp) hike overnight. The fact that the RBNZ are quickening their tightening pace as many other central banks slow down has brought a spotlight on the NZD.

With that in mind, there is a good chance of further near-term upside, with $0.6242 providing the next upside hurdle. However, the wider downtrend does still remain intact, with a push up through the $0.6468 swing-high required to negate that trend.

NZC/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD rises, USD/JPY slips on Fed minutes US while EUR/GBP tries to stabilise

Fundamental commentary and technical analysis on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP.

USD/JPYSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 November 2022 

EUR/USD extends rally after Fed minutes

EUR/USD is on a three-day winning streak, helped by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) considering slower rate hikes to be appropriate in the current economic environment, as stated in Wednesday’s Fed minutes.

The cross thus trades back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0395 and is gunning for its $1.0481 November peak as the US celebrates Thanksgiving. Further up lies key resistance between the $1.0615 late-June high and the $1.0638 March 2020 Covid-19 pandemic low.

Slips should find support around the $1.0368 August peak and the $1.034 November support line.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP stabilises above key support

The slide in EUR/GBP is ongoing with the currency pair now trading in three-week lows but holding above its solid support which sits between the mid- and late-October lows at £0.858 to £0.8572 ahead of Monetary Policy Members (MPC) Ramsden, Pill and Mann speaking in the course of the day.

As long as the £0.858 to £0.8572 support zone holds, a bounce back to the two-week downtrend line at £0.8689 is on the cards. Having said that, only a rise above Tuesday’s high at £0.8701 could lead to another up leg being made with the 55-day SMA at £0.8727 then being in focus.

Failure at £0.8572 would engage the 200-day SMA at £0.8532.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY drops towards ¥137.68 mid-November low post Fed minutes

USD/JPY is seen heading back down towards its ¥137.68 mid-November low for the third consecutive day following Wednesday’s US Fed minutes which showed that a substantial majority of policymakers agreed it would soon be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate hikes as they access the impact of its tightening policy on the economy.

A fall through the current-November low at ¥137.68 would put the early-August high at ¥135.58 on the map. Further down slithers the 200-day SMA at ¥133.86.

Immediate minor resistance can be made out around the minor psychological ¥140.00 mark and in the ¥140.29 to ¥140.80 zone where 14 to 18 November highs were made. Further minor resistance is tucked away at the ¥141.51 9 September low. Provided that this-week’s high at ¥142.25 isn’t overcome, the October-to-November downtrend remains intact.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD push up towards resistance

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD continue to gain ground, although resistance lies ahead.

AUDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 November 2022 

EUR/USD heads back towards prior high

EUR/USD has been making tentative gains over the past two games, with the strong rebound seen in the early part of the week losing momentum somewhat as we approach the $1.0481 resistance level. That high is going to be key going forward, with a rise through that point required to bring expectations of another leg higher for the pair.

From a macro perspective, we have seen mixed fortunes for Germany as a better-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) reading of 0.4% is offset by a weaker rebound in the Gfk consumer climate figure than predicted. In any case, both figures did improve, with the euro on the rise once again today. Keep an eye out for the $1.0481 level as a key level than needs to break in order to resume this bullish recovery phase.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD pushes into a three-month high

GBP/USD has been an outperformer over the course of the week. That comes despite the recent Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predictions that the UK will be the slowest growing Western nation over the course of the next two-years. With the price rising back towards the 200 simple moving average (SMA) and $1.2293 resistance level, the ability to break through that zone will be key in attempting to maintain this upwards trajectory.

To the downside, any near-term decline would look to represent a bullish retracement unless the price breaks back down through the recent swing-low of $1.1763.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD rallies into key resistance zone

AUD/USD has been on the front foot over much of the week, with the rebound taking the price up into a zone that sees both the descending trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. From this wider perspective, we can see the downtrend remains in play until the price rallies up through the August high of $0.7137.

Should that trend kick in once again, a move back through the $0.6585 level would provide the first signal that the bears are back in charge.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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Dollar weakness drives losses for USD/JPY and boosts EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Quiet trading on Monday has seen further USD weakness, allowing the euro, sterling and yen to make headway against the greenback.

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 November 2022 

EUR/USD recovery continues

EUR/USD continues to claw its way higher, pushing back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in early trading.

The rally from the September-low has yet to show signs of reversing, and with the move above the 200-day we may see additional momentum should the price be able to push on above $1.05. Additional gains target $1.063, last seen in May and June.

A reversal below $1.02 would be needed to suggest that the price has once again reverted to the downtrend of the past year.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD targets continued rebound

A move higher in early trading has seen GBP/USD push back towards the 200-day SMA.

Like EUR/USD, the pair remains in a move higher, one that has put the 2022 downtrend on ice for the time being. Additional gains target $1.225 and then $1.266.

It would need a move back below $1.165 and the 100-day SMA to suggest that the sellers have reasserted control on a longer-term basis.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY drops further towards 200-day MA

The breakdown in the uptrend continues here for USD/JPY, as the price pushes below ¥138.00 once again.

A move back to the (still rising) 200-day SMA seems likely, marking the first time the pair has hit this indicator since February 2021. This would still be a higher low if the pair succeeds in bouncing from there.

A mid-month recovery faltered at ¥142.00, and so it would need a move back above here to suggest that a low is in for the pair from current levels.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime

 

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Fresh USD weakness lifts EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while pushing down USD/JPY

Despite some comments from FOMC members about needing to push on with hikes, the dollar has edged down again.

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 29 November 2022 

EUR/USD prepares to test $1.04 again

EUR/USD attempted bounce yesterday was stymied by a strengthening dollar, but it has moved up again in early trading.

An area of resistance is developing around $1.04, so a move above this zone is needed to open the way to additional upside, allowing the price to build on the bounce from the September lows.

This would then bring $1.064 into view. A move below $1.02 is needed to suggest that the downtrend could be returning.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD moves up in early trading

The buyers are attempting to take control again with GBP/USD after two days of losses, setting up an attempt to clear the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) $1.217.

A bounce from current levels would help to put the pair back on an upward footing and restore the bounce from the September lows. Additional upside would target $1.225, the August high, and then on to the June high at $1.2366.

A reversal below short-term trendline support and below $1.19 might point towards some more short-term consolidation, and then bring the 100-day SMA into view.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY drops back despite Fed comments

Despite a bounce yesterday, USD/JPY is under pressure once again, heading back towards yesterday’s lows.

Additional declines would bring the ¥135.00 level into view, followed up by the 200-day SMA.

It would need a move back above ¥142.50 to suggest that a bounce is in play, with a break above trendline resistance from the October highs.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD turn upward after latest decline

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD show potential for short-term rebound after latest pullback.

EUR/USDBloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 30 November 2022 

EUR/USD starts to show strength after recent pullback

EUR/USD has been on the back foot over the course of the past week, with the price falling back after a period of gains that took the pair into a fresh five-month high on Monday.

The decline seen in the Spanish consumer price index (CPI) figure yesterday did lift hopes of a wider turn lower for eurozone inflation when it is released at 10am UK time. Keep a close eye out for that release as a driver of euro and market volatility today.

With the pair currently trading within a trend of higher highs and lows, there is a good chance we see another bullish turn to maintain that pattern. As such a bullish view holds unless we see the price fall back below the $1.0222 swing low.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD pulls back from recent highs

GBP/USD has similarly been on the back foot for much of the week, with the price falling back from a three-month high established on Thursday.

The recovery seen for this pair has been largely driven by risk-on sentiment permeating throughout global markets. With that in mind, traders will want to keep a close eye out for Friday’s US jobs report as a potential driver of price action.

For now, this latest pullback looks to have provided us with another retracement, where the bullish trend playing out over the course of October and November remains unless we see a move below $1.1738 support.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD on the rise, but wider bearish trend remains

AUD/USD has started to turn higher once again since yesterday’s low, with the pair largely consolidating over the course of the past fortnight.

That struggle to maintain the bullish price action that dominated the first half of the month came after a rise into the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance. That level remains a key hurdle to overcome for bulls.

Whether we do see another leg higher or not, the wider bearish trend does show the potential to kick in once again before long. A rise through the $0.7137 swing high would be required to negate that long-term bearish trend.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD gain ground ahead of US jobs report

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD heading into multi-month highs ahead of the latest US jobs report.

AUDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 December 2022 

EUR/USD hits fresh five-month high

EUR/USD has enjoyed another leg higher this week, with the price rising into a fresh five-month high yesterday. Today brings expectations of further volatility, with markets waiting cautiously for the latest jobs report this afternoon. With expectations that payrolls will fall back to levels not seen since the start of the year, a decline through that key 200k threshold could bring heightened volatility for the dollar.

For now, we have a clear uptrend in play since the lows of late-September. As such, further upside looks likely, with a break back below the recent low of $1.029 required to negate that bullish view.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD rises back towards key resistance

GBP/USD has also been on the front foot over the course of this week, building on the gains seen since the end of September. The wider bearish trend is negated with a break up through the $1.2294 swing-high, which is within touching distance today.

With the price having already engaged that level yesterday, it will be crucial to watch whether price breaches that August high or reverses lower for the time being. As such, keep an eye out for how we respond to the $1.2294 swing-high as a basis for near-term sentiment here.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD heads towards a confluence of resistance

AUD/USD has maintained its recent bullish trajectory, with the price reaching a two-month high yesterday. Despite seeing Australian inflation fall back from 7.3% to 6.9% on Wednesday, the comments from Jerome Powell on that same day helped drive a dollar decline which pushed the pair higher once again. From a wider perspective, the long-term downtrend does remain intact here, with a confluence of 200 simple moving average (SMA) and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance up ahead.

As such, while the recent uptrend does signal the expectation of further upside, it is worthwhile watching whether resistance comes into play around $0.6908. A break below the recent $0.664 swing-low would be required to bring about a fresh bearish signal for the pair.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD extends gains while USD/JPY and EUR/GBP consolidate

Outlook on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP amid Eurozone retail sales.

USD/JPYSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 05 December 2022 

EUR/USD extends despite strong NFP data

EUR/USD continues its advance despite Friday’s stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data which came in at 263k newly created jobs versus an expected 200k which only briefly led to retracement to $1.0429 on Friday before the cross resumed its ascent.

Key resistance between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 to 2022 bear market, the 55-week simple moving average (SMA), the late June 2022 high and the March 2020 pandemic low between $1.0608 to $1.0638 is thus still being targeted but may soon cap.

The currency pair is supported by the $1.05 to $1.0482 region, which consists of minor psychological support and the November highs, as well as Friday’s $1.0429 low. More significant support can be spotted between the November-to-December uptrend line and the 200-day SMA at $1.038 to $1.0365.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP remains under pressure ahead of European retail sales

EUR/GBP weighs on its mid- to late October lows at £0.858 to £0.8572 amid Eurozone retail sales data for October with last week’s low and the 200-day SMA at £0.8548 to £0.8541 about to be reached.

This area may offer support on Monday but if it were to give way during the week, the mid-August high at £0.8512 would be in sight.

Minor resistance can be found along the two-month downtrend line at £0.862 and further up at last week’s highs at £0.8661 to £0.8675. While these cap, the November-to-December downtrend remains valid.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY flirts with 200-day SMA

USD/JPY continued its descent for a second week in a row amid a weaker greenback following the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week regarding a slower pace of rate hikes being envisaged to combat persistently high inflation.

With the currency pair having now reached its 200-day SMA at ¥134.62, short-term stabilisation is expected to be witnessed. Therefore, while Friday’s low at ¥133.63 underpins, a recovery bounce back towards the ¥135.85 early August high may ensue.

More significant resistance sits further up at the ¥137.68 mid-November low. While the cross remains below last week’s ¥139.89 high, the October-to-December downtrend remains intact.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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US data bolsters USD/JPY while weakening EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Healthy data from the US in the form of jobs data and the ISM services purchasing managers index (PMI) have strengthened the dollar, and USD/JPY has bounced from the 200-day SMA as a result.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 December 2022 

EUR/USD drops back below $1.05

EUR/USD's rally continues, although it has encountered some weakness as the dollar has strengthened.

For now the bounce from late September is firmly intact. Buyers have come in to create higher lows and higher highs, and with the move above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) the outlook has turned more positive for the pair.

Additional upside targets the $1.063-$1.078 area, marking the May highs. A reversal below $1.02 might suggest a return of the downtrend of 2022.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD still in uptrend

GBP/USD has crossed the 200-day SMA, and while it fell back yesterday there is still room for further upside.

Fresh gains may target $1.236 and then $1.266, with the near-term view remaining bullish unless the price reverses back below $1.20.

A more sustained decline below $1.16 would be needed to suggest that the bounce has moved from consolidation to fresh decline, which may see the price head back towards $1.12 in the short term.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY rallies from 200-day SMA

USD/JPY bounce from the 200-day SMA marks an interesting development, though it is too soon to suggest that a low is in.

Additional gains from here target ¥140.00 with the price hitting trendline resistance from the October high around this level. Beyond this the late November high at ¥142.20 comes into play, and a move above this helps to rebuild a bullish view.

A failure to move on above ¥140.00 leaves the bearish view intact, and might result in a fresh test of the 200-day SMA.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD head down towards key support levels

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD head lower, but key hurdles remain before a bearish reversal comes into play.

AUDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 December 2022 

EUR/USD pulls back as the dollar strengthens

EUR/USD is heading lower once again today, with price currently on track to post a third consecutive loss in as many days this week. The declines we are seeing across equity markets are therefore being reflected here, with fears growing to the benefit of the dollar. Should we see risk-off sentiment continue, this could mark the beginning of a bearish turn for the pair.

Keep an eye out for the latest GDP revision as a potential driver of market volatility this morning. Meanwhile, any further downside would need to bring a break below the $1.029 swing-low to end the recent trend of higher lows. Until that level breaks, this near-term uptrend remains in play.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD turns lower after reaching key resistance

GBP/USD has similarly been hit over the course of this week thus far, with price turning lower since Monday’s five-month high. The ability to maintain this recent uptrend will be key this week, with a break back below the $1.19 swing-low required to bring a bearish signal. Today’s Halifax HPI reading of -2.3% highlights the economic collapse that is underway as a result of higher interest rates.

It is data like that which will likely help drive the dollar higher, to the detriment of the pair. Looking ahead, Friday’s US PPI figure will provide another potential market mover should we see a fresh surge in prices. For traders, keep an eye out for whether price continues the recent uptrend or breaks back below the $1.19 level to end this recent recovery phase.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD rolling over after deep retracement

AUD/USD has started to show signs of a bearish reversal, with price falling back after Monday’s push into a two-month high. The quarterly GDP reading of 0.60% fell short of the market expectations, bringing another leg lower for the Australian dollar.

While the short-term uptrend remains in play, traders should keep a close eye out for whether price can break below the $0.664 support level to bring a bearish outlook back into play.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CAD consolidate

Fundamental commentary and technical analysis on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CAD.

 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 December 2022 

EUR/USD consolidates above its uptrend line

EUR/USD consolidates, having risen by over 8% since the beginning of November to close to $1.06 and by around 10% from its September 20-year low at slightly above the $0.95 handle, amid an improving Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index which has been recovering from its late-September lows and levels last seen in September 2011 and September 2008.

While the two-month uptrend line at $1.0469 and Wednesday’s low at $1.0444 underpin, upside momentum should remain in play with Monday’s high at $1.0584 remaining in focus. Above it, key resistance remains to be seen between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 to 2022 bear market, the 55-week simple moving average (SMA), the late June 2022 high and the March 2020 pandemic low between $1.0608 to $1.0638 but may soon cap, if reached that is. A currently unexpected slip through the $1.0444 last relative low could lead to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0356 being revisited.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to be side-lined in a tight trading range

EUR/GBP has once more recovered from its mid- to late October as well as early December lows at £0.8580 to £0.8548, made slightly above the 200-day SMA at £0.8546 ahead of next Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) rate announcements with both expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.

Last week’s highs at £0.8661 to £0.8675 short-term remain in sight but while this area caps, further range trading is likely to ensue. Only currently unexpected failure at the early December low and at the 200-day SMA at £0.8548 to £0.8546 would put the mid-August high at £0.8512 on the plate.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/CAD remains at one-month highs despite widely anticipated rate hike

USD/CAD rallied to a one-month high at C$1.37 before consolidating following its widely anticipated 50 basis points (bps) rate hike to 4.25% on Wednesday.

Short-term further consolidation seems to be at hand but while the cross remains above its C$1.3571 10 November high, the odds favour further upside to be witnessed. A rise above C$1.37 would push the November peak at C$1.3808 back to the fore. Below C$1.3571 lie the early- and late-October lows at C$1.3504 to $1.3496 which should offer good support.

USD/CAD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD look to continue their bullish two-month trend

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD look set to continue their bullish momentum, with recent worries cast aside for now.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 09 December 2022 

EUR/USD continues to push higher after recent pullback

EUR/USD has seen a more upbeat tone over the second half of the week, with the dollar strength seen on Monday and Tuesday fading to give way to another push higher for this pair. Markets appear to be in a state of flux, with inflationary concerns reemerging in the wake of last Friday’s jump in US average earnings. Today sees the release of the US producer price index (PPI) inflation figure, bringing potential volatility if we see factory prices head higher.

China certainly has little to worry about on that front, with both consumer price index (CPI) (1.6%) and PPI (-1.3%) well below target thanks to cheap Russian fuel and lockdown restrictions. For EUR/USD, we would need to see a move back below the $1.029 swing-low to bring about a fresh bearish signal after two-months of upside for the pair. Until then, the bulls remain in the driving seat.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD pushing back into key resistance

GBP/USD also saw a somewhat downbeat start to the week, with the pair heading lower from the crucial $1.2293 swing-high resistance level. That August high provides a crucial hurdle up ahead for bulls, with a push through that point bringing expectations of another leg higher from here.

The uptrend in place over the course of the past two-months has brought expectations of further upside unless we see that ongoing pattern of higher lows end. With that in mind, a bullish view holds unless the price falls back below the $1.19 level. Keep an eye out for the UK consumer inflation expectations figure released at 9.30am this morning.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD struggling to maintain recovery pace

AUD/USD has similarly been attempting to regain ground today, with the gains seen across EUR/USD and GBP/USD failing to carry through here. This could signal a potential waning of the bullish momentum, with the fact that these pair have been slowing in their ascent of late serving to highlight the potential for another bearish reversal in the near-future.

That would tally up with what is happening in equity markets, which have shown initial tentative signs of a turnaround before long. With that in mind, watch out for a break back below the $0.664 level to signal a bearish turn for this pair. Until then, the uptrend evident over the past two-months does remain in play.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY consolidate ahead of central bank meetings

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY ahead of Fed, ECB and BoJ meetings.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 December 2022 

EUR/USD consolidates ahead of central bank meetings

EUR/USD consolidates, having risen by over 8% since the beginning of November, twice close to close to $1.06, and by around 10% from its September 20-year low at slightly above the $0.95 handle, ahead of this week’s central bank meetings by the likes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB).

With the two-month uptrend line at $1.053 now having been slipped through, the mid- and late November highs at $1.0496 to $1.0481 are likely to be revisited but may offer support. As long as last week’s low at $1.0444 underpins, upside momentum should remain in play with last week’s highs at $1.0584 to $1.0588 remaining in focus.

Above these, key resistance can be spotted between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 to 2022 bear market, the 55-week simple moving average (SMA), the late June 2022 high and the March 2020 Covid-19 pandemic low at $1.0608 to $1.0638 but may cap, if reached that is. A currently unexpected slip through the $1.0444 last relative low could lead to the 200-day SMA at $1.0353 being retested.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP remains above key support as UK GDP growth tops forecasts

EUR/GBP has once more recovered from its £0.858 to £0.8548 key support area, made up of the mid- to late October and early December lows as well as the 200-day SMA which were revisited on Friday.

The cross so far stays below its November-to-December downtrend line at £0.8628 as UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth for October came in at a stronger-than-expected 0.5%, the biggest increase in a year, which followed a contraction of 0.6% in September.

Last and the previous week’s highs at £0.8646 to £0.8675 continue to sit above the downtrend line and while this resistance area caps, further range trading is likely to be seen. Only currently unexpected failure at the early December low and at the 200-day SMA at £0.8549 to £0.8548 would put the mid-August high at £0.8512 on the map.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY stays above 200-day simple moving average amid higher-than-expected Japanese PPI

USD/JPY continues to trade sideways above its 200-day SMA at ¥135.17 despite producer prices in Japan rising by a higher-than-expected 9.3% year-on-year (YoY) in November, slowing from an upwardly revised 9.4% gain in October but exceeding a forecast 8.9%.

While Friday’s low at ¥135.61 underpins, a recovery back towards the ¥137.68 to ¥137.85 mid-November low and last week’s high may ensue.

While the cross remains below the late November ¥139.89 high, the October-to-December downtrend remains intact.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY resume their trends post US unemployment data while EUR/GBP falters

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY post Friday’s US NFP data.

USD/JPYSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 09 January 2023 

EUR/USD recovers strongly from last week’s Non-Farm Payroll lows

Following Friday’s US non-farm payroll (NFP) data, EUR/USD reversed its short-term downtrend from last week’s low at $1.0484 and is fast approaching its mid- to late December highs at $1.0715 to $1.0736, helped by Monday morning’s better-than-expected German industrial production data which came in at 0.2% for November versus an expected 0.1% and a revised 0.4% fall in October.

The $1.0715 to $1.0736 resistance area is likely to cap on Monday, if reached, but were it to be exceeded, the May 2022 peak at $1.0787 would be eyed next.

Minor support below Friday’s $1.0648 high is seen between the $1.0595 early-December high and the $1.0574 19 December low.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP slips after failed attempt to break through technical resistance

EUR/GBP is revisiting last week’s low at £0.8783, having failed to break through its October and late-December highs and thus resistance zone at £0.8867 to £0.8877 as the UK Halifax house price index showed the lowest growth since October 2019. The index increased 2% year-on-year (YoY) in December 2022, down from 4.6% in November. Compared to the previous month, house prices fell 1.5%, marking the fourth straight month of declines.

A slip through last week’s low at £0.8783 and the £0.878 21 October high may lead to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8703 being back in view over the coming days and weeks, provided resistance at £0.8867 to £0.8877 continues to put a lid on the cross.

Only a currently unexpected rise and daily chart close above the December high at £0.8877 would put the minor psychological £0.90 region back on the plate.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY downtrend resumes

USD/JPY's minor bounce off its ¥129.52 early-January low last week faltered at ¥134.77, marginally above its late-December high at ¥134.50, meaning that the October-to-January downtrend remains valid as investors digest last week’s US NFP data and Japanese consumer confidence which increased to 30.3 in December compared to its November 2 ½ year low at 28.6.

The cross will remain in a clearly defined downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows being seen on the daily chart, while it trades below its recent highs at ¥134.50 to ¥134.77 on a daily chart closing basis.

The December 20 low at ¥130.58 is now in focus, followed by the minor psychological ¥130.00 mark while the early-December low at ¥133.63 may act as resistance this week.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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Dollar weakness weighs on USD/JPY but lifts EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Last week’s US data prompted a fall in the greenback, but caution prevails this morning ahead of Powell’s speech today.

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 January 2023 

EUR/USD looks to renew uptrend

Friday’s US data provided the EUR/USD with the dollar weakness it needed to push back towards $1.07 and then look for further gains. After the consolidation of December and early January, which found buyers in a dip towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the price has now moved back above $1.07, and a move towards $1.08 appears to be developing.

A daily close above $1.085 would point the way towards a fresh bullish view. Sellers have once again been shut out of price action, and a move back below the 50-day SMA would be needed to suggest some short-term weakness.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD back above 200-day MA

The past two GBP/USD sessions have seen the price move back above the 200-day SMA, and now a move back towards the December high at $1.24 seems likely. The daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) appears to be on the cusp of another bullish crossover, having declined during the second half of December. Above $1.24 the May high at $1.2655 comes into view.

Last week saw the price hold around the $1.198 level, and above the 50-day SMA, so a move back below this would provide an indication of some potential short-term weakness.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY edges up

After falling back on Friday USD/JPY attempted to recover on Monday, but gains faltered. For the moment the bearish view is back in place, but a move above ¥134.00 could signal that a short-term recovery is in progress. But with a ‘death cross’ of the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA likely in coming sessions the picture is likely to turn more bearish.

Additional downside would target ¥130.00, where buyers stepped in last week, while below this the May 2022 low at ¥126.70 is the next target.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, AUD/USD eagerly await US consumer price index (CPI) data while EUR/GBP recovers

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data.

euroSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 11 January 2023 

EUR/USD awaits US inflation data out on Thursday

Following on from Friday’s US non-farm payroll (NFP) data, EUR/USD reversed its short-term downtrend from last week’s low at $1.0484 and is getting ever closer to its May 2022 peak at $1.0787 while volatility is decreasing as investors await Thursday’s US inflation data.

If $1.0787 were to be bettered, the March 2022 low at $1.0806 would be eyed ahead of the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 decline at $1.094.

Minor support is to be found at the late-December high at $1.0715 and further down below Friday’s $1.0648 high between the $1.0595 early-December high and the $1.0574 19 December low.

EURUSD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP is seen heading back up again

EUR/GBP is seen heading back up towards its October to late December as well as early January highs at £0.8867 to £0.8877 which represent key resistance.

Only a daily chart close above the December high at £0.8877 would put the minor psychological £0.900 region on the plate.

While the December-to-January support line at £0.8791 and the £0.8783 early January low underpin, the cross remains supported.

EURGBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD trades in five-month highs amid retail sales and inflation data

AUD/USDis seen to recover from Tuesday’s $0.686 intraday low which was made slightly above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.6837 and nears its five-month high at $0.6949 amid strong Australian retail sales data and as inflation continues to climb.

Australian retail sales growth beat estimates and increased by 1.4% month-on-month in November, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.4% in October and exceeding analyst forecasts of a 0.6% rise. The Australian consumer price index (CPI) also increased, however, and rose to 7.3% in November compared to the year before and October’s 6.9% rise.

The fact that cross has been trading above its SMA for three consecutive days for the first time since April 2022 on news that China is planning to reverse a two-year ban on imports of Australian coal is technically significant.

AUD/USD had been thwarted by the 200-day SMA in May, June, August and December of last year and the fact that several daily closes above it have now been seen indicates that further upside towards the $0.7136 August peak is probably in store.

The January 2022 low at $0.6968 as well as the late August high at $0.7009 are the first minor resistance levels to be seen.

This bullish forecast remains valid while no unexpected bearish reversal takes the currency pair to below its current January low at $0.6688.

Minor support above this low comes in along the 200-day SMA at $0.6837 and at the $0.6801 28 December high.

AUDUSD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP await US CPI report

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD ahead of US inflation report.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 January 2023 

EUR/USD loses upside momentum ahead of US inflation report

EUR/USD over 2% rally from last week’s $1.0484 low is losing upside momentum as market players await US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI).

The May 2022 peak at $1.0787 may nonetheless be reached before US inflation data is released. Above this level lies the March 2022 low at $1.0806 ahead of the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 decline at $1.094 and the psychological $1.10 mark.

Minor support is to be found between the mid- to late-December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715 and further down below Friday’s $1.0648 high between the $1.0595 early December-high and the $1.0574 19 December trough.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP flirts with its October and December peaks

On Wednesday EUR/GBP briefly overcame its October to late December as well as early January highs at £0.8867 to £0.8877 by rising to $0.8881 before short-term consolidating.

A daily chart close above Wednesday’s high at £0.8881 would put the minor psychological £0.90 region on the plate.

While the December-to-January support line at £0.88 isn’t slipped through, the cross remains supported. Slightly below it lies the £0.8783 early January low.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD trades in low volatility sideways trading range ahead of US inflation data release

GBP/USD has been trading in an around 100 pips range since the beginning of the week below Monday’s $1.221 high as market participants await US inflation data out later today.

Should the currency pair manage to rise above $1.2210, the early December high at $1.2344 would be targeted ahead of the December peak at $1.2446.

Strong support can be seen between the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMA) and the September-to-December uptrend lines at $1.2002 to $1.1918. While the next lower $1.1841 early January low underpins, further upside is likely to be in store.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP post US December CPI release

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY as US inflation drops as expected.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 January 2023 

EUR/USD continues its surge higher post US inflation release

EUR/USD’s strong rally from last week’s $1.0484 low continues to surge ahead as US consumer price index (CPI) came in as expected at -0.1% month-on-month (MoM) and 6.5% compared to the year before versus a previous 0.1% and 7.1%.

The late-April 2022 high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 decline at $1.0936 to $1.094 are now in focus, ahead of the psychological $1.10 mark.

Support below the January accelerated support line at $1.0792 and the May 2022 peak at $1.0787 sits between the mid- to late December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP trades in three-month highs as UK GDP comes in slightly better than expected

On Wednesday, EUR/GBP briefly overcame its October to late-December as well as early January highs at £0.8867 to £0.8877 by rising to $0.8897 before short term-consolidating as UK gross domestic product (GDP) came in better than expected.

It dropped by 0.3% for the three-months to December versus its 0.4% drop for the three-months to November with the British economy expanding 0.1% MoM in November, easing from a 0.5% growth in the previous period and beating market expectations of a 0.2% decline.

A rise above Friday’s high at £0.8897 high would push the minor psychological £0.90 mark to the fore. While the December-to-January support line at £0.8812 underpins, the cross remains in a medium-term uptrend. Slightly further down lies the £0.8783 early January low.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY trades in eight-month lows post US inflation data

USD/JPY’s descent has swiftly taken it to eight-month lows as US inflation continues to slide and alongside it the greenback with the late-April and May 2022 lows at ¥126.95 to ¥129.36 now being in focus.

Any possible short-term bounce may encounter minor resistance at the ¥129.52 early-January low above which the 20 December trough can be spotted at ¥130.58. Downside pressure should retain the upper while no rise above Wednesday’s high at ¥132.87 takes place.

The medium-term downtrend will remain valid while the late December and current January highs at ¥134.50 to ¥134.77 cap on a daily chart closing basis.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD on quiet Martin Luther King holiday trading

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD as US is off for a prolonged weekend.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 16 January 2023 

UR/USD loses upside momentum on US Martin Luther King Day

EUR/USD’s strong rally from its early January low at $1.0484 low remains on track to reach the late April 2022 high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 descent at $1.0936 to $1.0940 as well as the psychological $1.10 mark over the coming weeks.

However, on today’s Martin Luther King US holiday the cross is seen losing upside momentum, having briefly reached a new nine-month high just below the $1.09 mark. Support below the now breached January accelerated support line at $1.084 and the May 2022 peak at $1.0787 lies between the mid- to late December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP comes off its three-month highs ahead of Tuesday’s UK unemployment report

Last week EUR/GBP briefly overcame its October to late-December as well as early-January highs at £0.8867 to £0.8877 by rising to $0.8897 before short-term consolidating as the British economy expanded by a better-than-expected 0.1% month-on-month in November.

Ahead of Tuesday’s UK unemployment number, which is expected to come in unchanged at 3.7%, the cross is seen sliding back towards its December-to-January support line at £0.8822 as negative divergence can be spotted on the daily relative strength index (RSI). This happens when a new price high is not confirmed by a higher high on the oscillator, in this case the RSI, and points to likely consolidation.

While the support line underpins, the cross remains in a medium-term uptrend. Slightly further down lies the £0.8783 early-January low. Only a currently unexpected rise above Friday’s high at £0.8897 high would push the minor psychological £0.90 mark back to the fore.

EUR/GBPSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD trades in five-month highs as Australia MI inflation gauge hits four-month low

AUD/USD’s advance has taken it to above its minor psychological $0.70 mark, intraday so far to a new five-month high at $0.7019 as Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge showed a drop in Australian inflation to a four-month low at 0.2% in December 2022. The 9% slump in Australian building permits to a nine-month, month-on-month low at 13,898 units in November dampened bullish sentiment slightly with the cross retracing some of its earlier intraday gains.

The fact that AUD/USD has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for over a week now - for the first time since April 2022 - is encouraging for the bulls with the $0.7136 August peak representing a possible upside target. Slips should find support between the January 2022 low at $0.6968 and last Monday’s high at $0.6949. Our medium-term bullish forecast will remain intact while no unexpected bearish reversal takes the currency pair below its current January low at $0.6688.

AUD/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD edges down, while GBP/USD holds steady and USD/JPY rises

The euro has fallen back from last week’s highs against the dollar, while USD/JPY is moving up for a second day. GBP/USD is holding firm in a busy week for UK data.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 17 January 2023 

EUR/USD falls back from highs

The price of EUR/USD has retreated from last week’s highs, though the uptrend is intact.

A higher high may well be created, reinforcing the uptrend, with a pullback towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resulting from this short-term weakness. A strengthening of the US dollar would provide the fundamental catalyst for such a move.

A revival back above $1.185 would likely negate the higher high, and open the way towards the March 2022 highs at $1.146.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD hovers around $1.22

GBP/USD has also seen bullish momentum fade over the past day, though not sufficient to reverse the nascent bullish view.

A move back below the $1.205 level would push the price below the 50-day SMA and suggest a potential reversal is in play, with a lower high being created. Buyers will want to see the price move on above the December high at $1.24.

This week’s UK consumer price index (CPI) reading may well provide the catalyst for such moves, with a weaker CPI acting to push GBP/USD lower.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY edges up for a second day

A small bounce here with USD/JPY barely changes the bearish view, which has seen the price lose ground over the past month.

A recovery towards ¥132.00 might see further selling pressure develop, maintaining the downward trend. Further declines target the ¥126.60 level, last seen in May 2022.

This week’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting may well see volatility increase, but a move above ¥133.00 would be needed to suggest that the downward move has run its course for now.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY expected to continue dollar weakness theme

US dollar weakness story looks likely to continue despite recent blips for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 January 2023 

EUR/USD weakness could be short-term in nature

EUR/USD has been losing traction since Friday's high, with the losses seen for equities feeding through into short-term dollar strength. Whether we see equities rise further is going to be key here, with the declines seen for inflation helping to bolster confidence that central banks will be able to ultimately shorten the tightening phase for central banks.

Given the dollar strength that has come with this phase of higher rates, it would be likely that we see it unwind once inflation fears become lessened. As we have seen over recent months. With that in mind, further upside does look likely before long. The daily chart highlights the uptrend playing out since late-September, with the recent pullback likely to ultimately resolve in another move higher. A decline through the $1.0483 support level would be required to bring about a bearish reversal signal. Until then, the bullish trend remains intact.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD pushing upwards as inflation heads lower

GBP/USD has continued to move higher over the course of the past fortnight, coming off the back of a weak period at the end of 2022. Today has seen another fresh batch of inflation data, with UK consumer price index (CPI) falling back for the second consecutive month. However, it is notable that we are seeing core inflation tick higher, with the gap closing to highlight a lessening influence of volatile factors like energy.

The fact that inflation continues to roll over brings hope that we have seen prices top out. With that in mind, continued downside in prices should bring further upside for GBP/USD, where $1.2446 represents the notable resistance up ahead. To the downside, a move below the $1.2086 level would dampen this current bullish sentiment.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY rebound likely to be sold into

USD/JPY has been on the slide over the course of the past three-months, with a shift in Bank of Japan (BoJ) approach coming as inflation takes the steam out of the dollar. However, we have seen a surprise decision to keep their YCC policy unchanged overnight, bringing downside for the Yen.

Despite today’s unwinding of positions that had anticipated a widening or abandonment of the YYC policy, the ongoing issues remain prevalent. As such, the recent downtrend remains intact, with further downside looking likely as a result. With that in mind, a bearish outlook remains intact unless ¥134.77 is broken. Keep an eye out for trendline resistance as another factor which could drive price lower once again.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY slip ahead of plethora of central bank speeches

Technical analysis on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY within their fundamental context.

dollarSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 January 2023 

EUR/USD comes off its new nine-month high

EUR/USD’s near 4% rally from its early January low at $1.0484 low made a new nine-month high at $1.0887 on Wednesday, just short of the late April 2022 high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 descent at $1.0936 to $1.094, before tumbling back to $1.0767 on a stronger US dollar ahead of speeches by the European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Brainard and Williams.

If this level were to be slipped through, the mid- to late December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715 will most likely be in focus but are expected to offer good support. Further support can be found around the $1.0663 to $1.0658 16 to 28 December highs.

Resistance between last and this week’s highs at $1.0867 to $1.0887 is expected to put a lid on any short-term rally higher this week.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP slips to one-month low

EUR/GBP’s rise to its current January high at $0.8897 gave way to a swift decline close to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.873 ahead of speeches on Thursday and Friday by ECB president Lagarde and for technical reasons.

The fact that last week’s high was accompanied by negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), which made a lower high, and the fall out of a wedge formation both pointed to a sell-off which has now taken shape.

Below the 55-day SMA at £0.873 the 23 November high and 19 December low at £0.8701 to £0.8691 may be reached. Further down sits the 28 November high at £0.8676 which may also act as support. Resistance above the 9 January low at £0.8769 comes in around the 3 January £0.8783 low with more significant resistance sitting at the £0.8828 November peak.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY nears its ¥127.23 current January low as its downtrend resumes

USD/JPY’s is seen trading back in eight-month lows, having briefly risen to ¥131.58 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held firm on its yield curve range and kept its interest rate at an extremely dovish -0.1% (since 2016) on Wednesday.

Below the early January low at ¥127.23 lie the late April and May 2022 lows at ¥126.95 to ¥126.36. Minor resistance remains to be seen between the ¥129.52 early January low and the 20 December low at ¥130.58. Downside pressure should remain in place while no rise above Wednesday’s high at ¥131.58 is seen on a daily chart closing basis.

The medium-term downtrend will stay intact while the late December and current January highs at ¥134.50 to ¥134.77 aren’t overcome on a daily chart closing basis.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY expected to retain their trends despite recent risk-off move

Wider market worries have failed to dent the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY trends, with inflation proving key.

ForexSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 20 January 2023 

EUR/USD heads higher after recent pullback

EUR/USD has been on the front-foot over the course of the past three months, with the pair driving upwards to reach a fresh nine-month high on Wednesday. However, much like the declines seen throughout European markets, that mid-point mark of the week brought a turn lower as deteriorating market sentiment brings greater demand for the dollar.

It is notable that we have seen this pair hold up relatively well despite shifting sentiment, with the gap between eurozone and US inflation providing less reason to expect a major shift into the dollar when monetary policy concerns resurface. As things stand, we are seeing the price turning upwards once again, with the bullish trend remaining in play. Whether we see a deeper retracement remains to be seen, but we are ultimately expecting to see another move higher unless the trend breaks with a break below $1.0483.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD struggles at key resistance

GBP/USD has been leading the way this week, with the pair managing to drive higher throughout a period that has largely been dominated by market concerns. That strength looks to be coming into question today, with an unwelcome collapse in UK retail sales bringing sterling weakness.

Crucially, today’s decline comes from the key $1.2446 resistance level which is drawn from the mid-December peak. Whether this pullback produces anything substantiative remains to be seen, with a decline through $1.2313 required to bring expectations of a near-term pullback. As such, near-term sentiment will be dictated by whether we break $1.2313 or $1.2446.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY turns upwards despite Japanese inflation rise

USD/JPY has been trading within a descending channel of late, with the rise in Japanese inflation coming as US prices reverse lower. That has brought a bearish reversal for the pair, with today’s national consumer price index (CPI) figure in Japan bringing a 400-year high in prices.

Nonetheless, we are instead seeing the pair push higher in early trade today. That looks to be providing a fresh retracement phase as we head towards the weekend. The ability to remain within this channel will be key, with a bearish outlook remaining in play until price breaks through trendline and ¥134.77 resistance.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP rally on hawkish ECB, USD/JPY stabilises

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY amid ECB and FOMC member comments.

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 January 2023 

EUR/USD rallies on weakening US economic data

EUR/USD’s rally from its early January low at $1.0484 low so far made a new nine-month high at $1.0927 as US home sales slid to a 12-year low in December and Federal reserve meeting (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller hinted at a less hawkish monetary policy amid a continued decline in inflation, pushing the US dollar basket to an eight-month low and benefitting the Euro.

The cross is fast approaching the late April 2022 high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 descent at $1.0936 to $1.094, also helped by hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials. Above this resistance area beckons the psychological $1.10 mark.

Immediate minor support can be spotted around the 12 January $1.0867 high and more significant support at last week’s $1.0766 low. While above it, the short- and medium-term uptrends remain intact.
The $1.0766 low, together with the mid- to late December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715 is expected to offer good support, were it to be revisited. Further support can be found around the $1.0663 to $1.0658 16 to 28 December highs.

 

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP rises on hawkish ECB comments

EUR/GBP is seen recovering from last week’s low at £0.8722 following comments by ECB governing council member Klaas Knot indicating that the central bank is set to raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) in both February and March.

Above the minor psychological £0.88 level minor resistance can be spotted at the £0.8828 November peak as well as the £0.8834 22 December high, above which sits more significant resistance between the December and current January highs at £0.8877 to £0.8897.

Support comes along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8732 and last week’s low at £0.8722. If slipped through, the 23 November high and 19 December low at £0.8701 to £0.8691 may be reached. Further down sits the 28 November high at £0.8676.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY remains above its early January low

USD/JPY continues to trade above its early January low at ¥127.23 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held firm on its yield curve range and kept its interest rate at an extremely dovish -0.1% on Wednesday with another hot inflation reading on Friday supporting the case for tightening, however.

The currency pair looks short-term bid with Friday’s high at ¥130.61 being eyed ahead of the ¥131.32 to ¥131.58 October-to-January downtrend line and last week’s high. While this resistance area caps, the short-term downtrend remains intact.

The medium-term downtrend will stay intact while the late December and current January highs at ¥134.50 to ¥134.77 aren’t overcome on a daily chart closing basis.
Below the early January low at ¥127.23 lie the late April and May 2022 lows at ¥126.95 to ¥126.36.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD appreciate while EUR/GBP stalls

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD amid record UK public sector deficit.

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 January 2023 

EUR/USD continues its advance

EUR/USD’s advance from its early-January low at $1.0484 low so far made a new nine-month high at $1.0926 amid hawkish comments by European Central Bank (ECB) officials over the weekend.

The currency pair remains on track to reach the late-April 2022 high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 descent at $1.0936 to $1.094 over the coming days while it stays above the January uptrend line and 12 January low at $1.0867 on a daily chart closing basis. Above $1.094 beckons the psychological $1.10 mark. Support remains to be seen at last week’s $1.0766 low. While above it, and the mid- to late-December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715, the medium-term uptrends remain intact. Further support can be found around the $1.0663 to $1.0658 16 to 28 December highs.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP little changed on record UK budget gap high

EUR/GBP slid back from Monday’s £0.8815 high and now trades below the £0.88 mark as the UK’s public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks hit the highest December monthly figure since records began in 1993, mainly because of the government’s energy support scheme and an increase in debt interest payments.

The cross thus so far fell short of the £0.8828 November peak as well as the £0.8834 22 December high, above which sits more significant resistance between the December and current January highs at £0.8877 to £0.8897. Support remains to be seen along the 55-day simple moving average at £0.8733 and last week’s low at £0.8722. If slipped through, the 23 November high and 19 December low at £0.8701 to £0.8691 could once again be reached. Further down sits the 28 November high at £0.8676.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD grapples with its $1.2446 December peak

The record high in UK public sector net borrowing (ex banks) hasn’t had much impact on the GBP/USD cross as it continues to grapple with its December peak at $1.2446. UK public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks came in at a record high of £27.4 billion in December 2022, much higher than market forecasts of £17.75 billion and a gap of £17.6 billion in November.

The currency pair’s September advance from its $1.035 all-time low over the past week or so struggled to overcome its December high at $1.2446 which is not to say that this won’t happen in the near future, provided that the January support line at $1.2374 continues to underpin. Further minor support lies at the 16 January high at $1.2289. A rise and daily chart close above Monday’s $1.2448 high would engage the minor psychological $1.25 mark above which the 7 June 2022 high sits at $1.2599.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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AUD/USD leads the way after Australian inflation spike, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD following

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD remain on track to benefit from dollar weakness, with a jump in Australian inflation bring particular outperformance for AUD.

AUD/USDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 January 2023 

EUR/USD continues to push higher

EUR/USD has managed to maintain its bullish trajectory despite recent volatility within equity markets. The growing disparity between eurozone and US inflation means that any inflation/interest rate concerns does not necessarily means the pair downside.

Today has seen a surprise jump in Australian inflation, while the Bank of Canada provides a fresh monetary policy decision to note. Nonetheless, unless we see price fall back through the $1.0766 swing-low, it looks likely that any declines are a short-term pullback before the bulls come back into play.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD weakens from key resistance

GBP/USD has been struggling to maintain its upward trajectory over the course of this week, with the recent surge into the £1.2446 resistance level on early-Monday bringing a period of less convincing price action. The decline through the $1.2313 support level brings expectations of a wider pullback for the pair, with price at risk of another downturn to retrace the £1.2086-1.2448 move.

With that in mind, there is a risk of another pullback here, with the 61.8-76.4% zone providing a potential area for the bulls to come back into play.

GBP/USDSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD drives higher after surprise inflation spike

AUD/USD has pushed sharply higher, with a surge in Australian inflation bringing a fresh five-month high for the pair. The 7.8% reading for Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) represents a three-decade high, with rising energy costs and a resurgence in tourism pushing prices upward. This is certainly a warning for those that view prices as being on a one-way path lower.

For AUD/USD, this provides a push higher that brings us towards the $0.7137 resistance level established back in August 2022. The ability to drive through that point remains key here, with such a break bringing expectations of a bullish continuation. Nonetheless, any pullback would simply look like a retracement within a bullish trend unless the $0.6871 swing-low is broken.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD remains bid ahead of US Q4 GDP while EUR/GBP and USD/CAD stabilise

Outlook on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CAD ahead of US Q4 GDP, following Bank of Canada’s 25 bps rate hike to 4.50%.

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 January 2023 

EUR/USD pushes higher ahead of US Q4 GDP release

EUR/USD is trading in fresh nine-month highs ahead of Thursday’s 1.30pm (GMT) US forth quarter (Q4) advance gross domestic product (GDP), durable goods orders, wholesale inventories and unemployment claims releases. Advance GDP is expected at 2.6% quarter-on-quarter versus 3.2% previously and durable goods orders at 2.4% month-on-month (MoM) versus -2.1% with unemployment claims forecast at 203k versus 190k.

The currency pair is about to reach the late April 2022 high and the 50% retracement of the 2021 to 2022 descent at $1.0936 to $1.094. This should remain the case while it stays above the January uptrend line at $1.0885 and, more importantly, above Tuesday’s low at $1.0836 on a daily chart closing basis. Above $1.094 beckons the psychological $1.10 mark.

Strong support remains to be seen at last week’s $1.0766 low. While above it, and the mid- to late December highs at $1.0736 to $1.0715, the medium-term uptrends remain intact.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP holds despite UK car production slipping in December

EUR/GBP slid back from Wednesday’s £0.8852 high and now trades back around the £0.88 mark as UK car production fell 17.9% year-on-year (YoY) in December 2022 after two consecutive months of growth. Annual car production dropped by close to 10% in 2022 due to a global shortage of semiconductors and Covid-19 related supply chain issues.

The cross thus so far fell short of its significant £0.8877 to £0.8897 resistance area which sits between the December and current January highs.

Support below the 9 January £0.8769 low can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8735 and last week’s low at £0.8722. If fallen through, the 23 November high and 19 December low at £0.8701 to £0.8691 could once again be reached. Further down sits the 28 November high at £0.8676.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/CAD remains under pressure post 25 basis point rate hike

USD/CAD’s reaction to the widely anticipated 25 basis point (bp) rate hike to 4.50% by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday has been muted with the cross remaining in a low volatility sideways trading range. With the central bank signalling that it plans to step aside and let higher rates work on inflation which it expects to slip back down towards 3% by mid-2023, weakness in the Canadian dollar seems to be on the cards.

In the immediate future the cross continues to hold above its C$1.3322 January low and the C$1.3317 late November low. While this continues to be the case, the currency pair could head back up towards last week’s high at C$1.352. For this to happen, it needs to overcome Wednesday’s high at C$1.3428, though.

Failure at C$1.3317 could lead to the November trough at C$1.3227 being revisited.

USD/CAD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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