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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD losing momentum after recent rally

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD rally starts to slow, but will we turn lower or push higher once again?

dollarSource:Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 November 2022 

EUR/USD struggling at the SMA resistance

EUR/USD has seen the upwards trajectory stutter somewhat this week, with the decline seen across equity markets similarly providing an upward move for the dollar. The recent rebound seen for this pair has been borne out-of-risk on sentiment in the wake of the declining US consumer price index (CPI) figure. However, this week has brought a timely reminder that not all is well elsewhere, with UK inflation now up to 11.1%.

The gains seen for EUR/USD do appear to have dried up to some extent, with price struggling to break through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Given the size of the rebound seen last week, there is a chance we see a pullback come into play here. A break down through $1.0271 would provide the intraday signal that a pullback could be coming into play. To the upside, a push through the recent high of $1.0481 would bring a bullish continuation signal.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD attempts to push higher after budget and retail sales

GBP/USD appears to be doing a little better here, with a wealth of data out of the UK bringing upside for the pound. Between higher inflation, improved retail sales, and consumer confidence, the Bank of England (BoE) should continue their steep pathway to higher rates.

The recent rise through trendline resistance subsequently took us through the 76.4% Fibonacci level. With that in mind, we could see further gains come into fruition, with a move back below the $1.171 required to bring a move negative short-term picture into view.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD comes under pressure after rally into resistance

AUD/USD has started to lose traction after a rally into the confluence of a descending trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance. The recent rise through $0.6547 resistance signalled a potential upward push for the pair, with the wider downtrend coming into play. As such, the current rise looks to represent a retracement of the selloff from the $0.7136 swing-high.

Quite whether this rebound ends here remains to be seen, with a push through this confluence of resistance required to signal a potential move into 76.4% Fibonacci resistance and the 200-SMA level. In either scenario, these short-term gains appear to be setting us up for another downturn before long. A rise through $0.7136 would be required to negate that outlook.

AUD/USD chartSource:ProRealTime
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EUR/USD slips, USD/JPY rises on US dollar safe haven flows while EUR/GBP drops to two-week low

Outlook on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP amid rising China Covid-19 cases.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 21 November 2022 

EUR/USD slips on safe-haven flows into the greenback

EUR/USD keeled over last week and slid back to its November uptrend line at $1.0261 on Monday morning as the US dollar appreciates on Covid-19 related concerns in China and acts as a safe haven currency for the third day in a row.

The one-month uptrend line may act as short-term support, but if slid through, would push the September high at $1.0198 to the fore.

Immediate resistance can be spotted at Thursday’s $1.0305 low, above which meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0409.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP tumbles to two-week lows

Last week’s slide in EUR/GBP is ongoing with the currency pair now trading in two-week lows ahead of Tuesday’s UK public sector net borrowing data release for October and Wednesday’s German and UK global manufacturing and services purchasing managers index (PMI) data for November.

The fall out of the recent £0.8828 to £0.8691 trading range is pointing to the early October low at £0.8649 soon being reached. Further down more solid support sits between the mid- and late October lows at £0.858 to £0.8572.

Minor resistance above the £0.8691 7 November low can be seen along the 55-day SMA at £0.8728 and also at the £0.8780 21 October high as well as at the £0.8828 current November peak, a currently unexpected rise above which would engage the 26 and 28 September lows at £0.8853 as well as the October peak at £0.8867.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY continues to heave itself off its 2 ½ month low

USD/JPY’s over 9% rapid slide to last week’s ¥137.68 low is taking a breather with the cross trying to regain some of its losses ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) year-on-year (YoY) Core consumer price index (CPI) data release for November which is expected to come in at 2.2% versus 2.0% in October.

Rising China Covid-19 cases and curfews have led to flight to safety flows into the US dollar which also pushed the exchange rate higher. Further consolidation above the minor psychological ¥140.00 mark is likely to be seen with first resistance being encountered around last week’s high at ¥140.80. Further minor resistance is tucked away at the ¥141.51 9 September low.

Potential slips should find support between the ¥140.00 mark and Thursday’s ¥138.88 trough. Were last week’s low at ¥137.68 to unexpectedly give way, the early-August high at ¥135.58 would be in focus. Further down meanders the 200-day SMA at ¥133.49.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD turn upwards as dollar strength eases

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 23 November 2022 

EUR/USD turning upwards after recent pullback

EUR/USD has started to turn upwards following a pullback that took price back down towards the $1.0198 support level. This morning has seen improved Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers out of France and Germany, with French services bringing the only sector which has started to weaken across the four readings.

The recent push up through the $1.0198 swing-high brings expectations of a potential period of upside for the pair. However, it makes sense to await a break up through the $1.0481 resistance level to confirm that we have seen the end of this pullback. Until we see that upside resistance level taken out, it makes sense to remain aware of the potential for further short-term downside.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD consolidating after period of upside

GBP/USD has been consolidating since reaching a three-month high last week, with this pair trading sideways ever since. The rise through trendline resistance brings expectations of further upside, although $1.2293 remains a significant upside hurdle of note.

Keep an eye out for the UK manufacturing and services PMI readings later on this morning, with the FOMC minutes due in the evening. For now, a push up through the $1.2029 resistance level would be required to bring about a fresh buy signal.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

NZD/USD pushes higher after rate rise

NZD/USD has been an outperformer over recent weeks, as the continued push higher in interest rates from the RBNZ helps lift the pair. Interestingly, we have seen a clear divergence between Australian and New Zealand rates, as highlighted by the 75-basis point (bp) hike overnight. The fact that the RBNZ are quickening their tightening pace as many other central banks slow down has brought a spotlight on the NZD.

With that in mind, there is a good chance of further near-term upside, with $0.6242 providing the next upside hurdle. However, the wider downtrend does still remain intact, with a push up through the $0.6468 swing-high required to negate that trend.

NZC/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD rises, USD/JPY slips on Fed minutes US while EUR/GBP tries to stabilise

Fundamental commentary and technical analysis on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/GBP.

USD/JPYSource: Bloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 24 November 2022 

EUR/USD extends rally after Fed minutes

EUR/USD is on a three-day winning streak, helped by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) considering slower rate hikes to be appropriate in the current economic environment, as stated in Wednesday’s Fed minutes.

The cross thus trades back above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0395 and is gunning for its $1.0481 November peak as the US celebrates Thanksgiving. Further up lies key resistance between the $1.0615 late-June high and the $1.0638 March 2020 Covid-19 pandemic low.

Slips should find support around the $1.0368 August peak and the $1.034 November support line.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP stabilises above key support

The slide in EUR/GBP is ongoing with the currency pair now trading in three-week lows but holding above its solid support which sits between the mid- and late-October lows at £0.858 to £0.8572 ahead of Monetary Policy Members (MPC) Ramsden, Pill and Mann speaking in the course of the day.

As long as the £0.858 to £0.8572 support zone holds, a bounce back to the two-week downtrend line at £0.8689 is on the cards. Having said that, only a rise above Tuesday’s high at £0.8701 could lead to another up leg being made with the 55-day SMA at £0.8727 then being in focus.

Failure at £0.8572 would engage the 200-day SMA at £0.8532.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY drops towards ¥137.68 mid-November low post Fed minutes

USD/JPY is seen heading back down towards its ¥137.68 mid-November low for the third consecutive day following Wednesday’s US Fed minutes which showed that a substantial majority of policymakers agreed it would soon be appropriate to slow the pace of interest rate hikes as they access the impact of its tightening policy on the economy.

A fall through the current-November low at ¥137.68 would put the early-August high at ¥135.58 on the map. Further down slithers the 200-day SMA at ¥133.86.

Immediate minor resistance can be made out around the minor psychological ¥140.00 mark and in the ¥140.29 to ¥140.80 zone where 14 to 18 November highs were made. Further minor resistance is tucked away at the ¥141.51 9 September low. Provided that this-week’s high at ¥142.25 isn’t overcome, the October-to-November downtrend remains intact.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD push up towards resistance

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD continue to gain ground, although resistance lies ahead.

AUDSource: Bloomberg
 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 25 November 2022 

EUR/USD heads back towards prior high

EUR/USD has been making tentative gains over the past two games, with the strong rebound seen in the early part of the week losing momentum somewhat as we approach the $1.0481 resistance level. That high is going to be key going forward, with a rise through that point required to bring expectations of another leg higher for the pair.

From a macro perspective, we have seen mixed fortunes for Germany as a better-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) reading of 0.4% is offset by a weaker rebound in the Gfk consumer climate figure than predicted. In any case, both figures did improve, with the euro on the rise once again today. Keep an eye out for the $1.0481 level as a key level than needs to break in order to resume this bullish recovery phase.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD pushes into a three-month high

GBP/USD has been an outperformer over the course of the week. That comes despite the recent Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predictions that the UK will be the slowest growing Western nation over the course of the next two-years. With the price rising back towards the 200 simple moving average (SMA) and $1.2293 resistance level, the ability to break through that zone will be key in attempting to maintain this upwards trajectory.

To the downside, any near-term decline would look to represent a bullish retracement unless the price breaks back down through the recent swing-low of $1.1763.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD rallies into key resistance zone

AUD/USD has been on the front foot over much of the week, with the rebound taking the price up into a zone that sees both the descending trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. From this wider perspective, we can see the downtrend remains in play until the price rallies up through the August high of $0.7137.

Should that trend kick in once again, a move back through the $0.6585 level would provide the first signal that the bears are back in charge.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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