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USD/JPY expected to rebound if Fed continue path towards tighter policy today

 

bg_dollar_yen_usd_262951664.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 15 December 2021 

USD/JPY has been in the limelight of late, with the pair losing traction after the arrival of the Omicron variant threw off expectations for a move to tighten monetary policy at the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

However, despite the economic risks being posed by the dramatic nature of this latest strain, markets are growing increasingly confident that the short-term nature of this surge and persistently high inflation will see central banks act sooner rather than later.

From a Fed perspective, we are looking at a likely ramp up in the rate of tapering today. Should we see the Fed willing to continue to move along that path towards higher rates, we are looking at a resumption of the wider USD/JPY uptrend.

The monthly chart shows how price has been stifled around the 114.73 resistance level of late. However, with a wider long-term trendline in play, there is a good chance we see a move back towards that line if the Fed ramp up their move towards tighter monetary policy.

USDJPY-Monthly-2021_12_15-13h35%20(1).pnSource: ProRealTime

 

The four-hour chart highlights how we have seen price start to bottom out once again, with price creating higher intraday lows.

A push up through the 113.95 resistance level today should give us grounds to expect further upside as price looks to build another bullish leg higher.

However, we are yet to see exactly how the Fed frames things later today, and thus should they hold a more dovish stance we would be looking for a break below the 113.22 to bring a more bearish picture into play.

USDJPY-4-hours-2021_12_15-13h42.pngSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY make headway

The Fed’s commitment to tighter policy next year has led to a bout of risk-on moves in markets, lifting key currency pairs.

Euro

 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 16 December 2021 

EUR/USD stabilises as markets await ECB

EUR/USD managed to rally following the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, as the price bounced from $1.125, but with the European Central Bank (ECB) on today’s calendar the risky period is not over yet.

However, the price is testing trendline resistance from the November high, and could be on the cusp of a break higher, challenging recent highs at $1.1325 and $1.135.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD edges up ahead of BoE meeting

Today’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting shouldn’t deliver too much in the way of fireworks with GBP/USD, and with the price having stabilised over recent sessions a move back towards $1.3275 and potentially higher could be in the offing.

This may mark a short-term rebound within the broader downtrend of the second half of the year.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY moves higher

The post-Fed price action suggests buyers are in the ascendant again with USD/JPY, after pushing the price back above ¥113.85, putting it back on course for ¥115.00 and ¥115.50.

Sellers would need to reverse gains and pish the price back below ¥113.20 to provide a more bearish view.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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Dollar weaken for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, but trend likely to kick in once more

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY see the dollar under pressure, but wider trend points towards a potential reversal before long. Video

Euro
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 17 December 2021

EUR/USD looks to push higher after recent descending channel

EUR/USD managed to exit the recent descending channel pattern, with the price rising back into the key $1.1355 resistance level. A break up through that threshold would bring about a wider bullish phase as it ends the pattern of lower highs.

As such, the ability to break up through $1.1355 will be key to determining sentiment as we move forward.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD reverses downtrend, bringing potential for further upside

GBP/USD managed to break through the $1.3289 resistance level, bringing an end to the intraday downtrend seen over the course of the past month.

However, this does simply point towards a potential retracement of the wider selloff from $1.3513. Thus far, we have seen the price rally up into the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($1.3379) and the 200-simple moving average (SMA).

A push up through there would signal a potential rise into the 76.4% level at $1.343. However, in either case the upside seen at the moment does still look like a retracement within a wider trend until $1.3513 is broken.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY falls back into Fibonacci support

USD/JPY surged into a new December high on Wednesday, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting bringing home the difference between the US and Japanese monetary policy outlook. However, we are seeing the pair turn lower since, bringing the price back into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level.

A break below the ¥113.22 support level would bring about a more bearish picture. Until then, this pullback looks to represent a buying opportunity once again.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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36 minutes ago, RCtrader said:

The bears are still out there. I am projecting 120 pips south. 

Christmas Present :)

Hi @RCtrader

Thanks for sharing your technical analysis on EURUSD.

EUR/USD

The big spot of support in EUR/USD is the zone running from 1.1187-1.1212, each of which are Fibonacci levels taken from longer-term charts.

This zone first came back into play in late-November, and like the USD scenario above, this has led to a continued range with prices holding inside of support and resistance around 1.1375. If a pullback develops, there’s another area of potential resistance running from 1.1448-1.1500. On the under-side of price action, the next major support level after the current zone is the 1.1000 psychological level.

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART

eurusd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James StanleyEURUSD on Tradingview

Written by James StanleySenior Strategist for DailyFX.com

 

What could be the catalyst to push EURUSD 120 pips south?

 

 

All the best - MongiIG

DailyFX and IG.jpg

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD see some small gains, but upside still limited

The euro and sterling have made some headway against the dollar, but overall a cautious view still prevails.

EuroSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 21 December 2021

EUR/USD ticks higher

Some small gains for EUR/USD over the past 24 hours have lifted the pair off recent lows, but now the $1.134 area comes into view as a potential source of resistance.

This is where gains have stalled over the last month. If this remains unbroken then the range continues to hold, frustrating both sides.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD clings to $1.32

GBP/USD continues to bounce along near $1.32, but with rising stochastics a more bullish view might yet prevail. In any case, the continued defence of $1.32 does at least hold the bearish view relatively in check.

However, buyers need to be careful since, as we saw last week, there is plenty of selling pressure should a bounce develop.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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On 20/12/2021 at 12:56, MongiIG said:

Hi @RCtrader

Thanks for sharing your technical analysis on EURUSD.

EUR/USD

The big spot of support in EUR/USD is the zone running from 1.1187-1.1212, each of which are Fibonacci levels taken from longer-term charts.

This zone first came back into play in late-November, and like the USD scenario above, this has led to a continued range with prices holding inside of support and resistance around 1.1375. If a pullback develops, there’s another area of potential resistance running from 1.1448-1.1500. On the under-side of price action, the next major support level after the current zone is the 1.1000 psychological level.

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART

eurusd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James StanleyEURUSD on Tradingview

Written by James StanleySenior Strategist for DailyFX.com

 

What could be the catalyst to push EURUSD 120 pips south?

 

 

All the best - MongiIG

DailyFX and IG.jpg

I think it will be the rectangle breakout that is going to push the price 80 pips below it. At the same time, I believe in the MMs wanting to give us bears a Christmas present. :)

Somebody was saying once that geometry is sacred. If that is so, we could end the year with a touch of the 1.1000 area. 

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16 hours ago, RCtrader said:

I think it will be the rectangle breakout that is going to push the price 80 pips below it. At the same time, I believe in the MMs wanting to give us bears a Christmas present. :)

Somebody was saying once that geometry is sacred. If that is so, we could end the year with a touch of the 1.1000 area. 

Hi @RCtrader

Thanks for sharing.

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Everything to Know about Trading EURUSD - Blackwell Global

There is a clear divergence between the outlook of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) interest policy in 2022. Economists at Rabobank expect that USD upside has further to run in the early months of 2022. Consequently, they have revised down their six-month EUR/USD forecast to 1.10 from 1.12.

Doubts over whether bullish USD momentum can last the whole year

“We expect that USD upside has further to run in the early months of 2022 as the Fed winds down its bond buying programme and moves closer to its first rate rise of the cycle.”

“With a lot of good news already in the price, we are concerned that the momentum behind the Greenback’s rally may run out of steam in the latter part of next year and see scope for the USD to have given back a little ground vs. the EUR on a 12-month horizon.”

“While we see scope for EUR/USD to trend down to the 1.10 level in the coming months, we also see the likelihood of a retreat back towards the 1.12 area by the end of next year.”

FXStreet

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USD/JPY is trading at 4-year highs while EUR/USD and GBP/USD begin the new year on the back foot

While EUR/USD and GBP/USD are struggling, USD/JPY has begun the new year with a push to four-year highs. Video

Euro
IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 04 January 2022 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is rapidly slipping towards $1.1274, the 29 December low, below which the November-to-December channel support line can be spotted at $1.1256 and may hold.

If not, a good band of support can be found between the 7 and 20 December lows at $1.1237/22. Further down sits the November low at $1.1186.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD

GBP/USD formed a minor top at $1.355 in late December and is seen heading back down towards the tentative support line at $1.3453. Below it lies the $1.3412/02 support zone, made up of the late September low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December advance.

Further down more significant support can be made out between the mid-November low and the late November-to-mid-December highs as well as the 50% retracement at $1.3375/53.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY

USD/JPY continues its December advance and has now risen above the November peak at ¥115.52 to a 4-year high and thus likely has the August 2015 low at ¥116.21 in its sights.

Above this level sits strong resistance between the October 2015 low and the December 2016 and January 2017 highs at ¥118.06/66. Upside pressure should be maintained while the cross remains above this year’s current low at ¥114.95.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD move up to recover losses

Renewed USD weakness has allowed the euro, sterling and Aussie to make back some lost ground from earlier in the week.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 05 January 2022 

EUR/USD reverses bearish move

Sellers seemed to have gained the upper hand with EUR/USD yesterday, with the continued retreat from Monday’s highs. Some early gains this morning have helped to stabilise the situation for the buyers but overall the broadly gloomy tone remains firmly in place.

While daily stochastics have now rolled over with a bearish crossover, the price is testing rising trendline support from the late November low. A move below $1.1265 would confirm a bearish view.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD surge shows no sign of slowing

The counter-trend bounce in cable goes on here with GBP/USD, as the price pushes on back towards the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.3558. Bearish hopes were dashed yesterday with the solid move higher, which continues today and suggests we could see further strength into the second half of the week.

Of course, this is still a bounce from an overstretched lower low, so any lower high below $1.374 would still leave the downtrend intact.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD edges higher

After Monday’s losses AUD/USD rebounded yesterday, but it remains stuck below the 50-day SMA ($0.7241) for the time being. A drop back below $0.72 would reinforce the bearish view and help reaffirm the potential of Monday’s drop to create a lower high.

Further gains above $0.7277 would put a move back to the early November swing high at $0.7364 in view.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP try to remain above their recent lows, while USD/JPY is taking a breather

Gains have stalled for USD/JPY, while the euro is struggling to make headway against both the dollar and the pound. Video

USD
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 06 January 2022 

EUR/USD tries and fails to move higher 

EUR/USD has been hovering above the $1.1274 late-December low for the past few days and tried to regain upside momentum yesterday only to fail at $1.1346.  

While below there, downside pressure retains the upper hand with the November-to-December channel support line at $1.1260 remaining in sight. If slid through, support between the 7 and 20 December lows at $1.1237/22 would be in play. Further down sits the November low at $1.1186 which remains in sight. 

 

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP attempts to bounce

EUR/GBP is trying to short-term recover from yesterday’s low at 0.8335 but is to soon encounter resistance seen between the October and November lows at £0.8381 to £0.8403 which is likely to cap today. 

A tumble through the current January low at £0.8335 would open the way for the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277 to be revisited. This area represents key long-term support which is expected to withstand the first test. 

 

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY eases off in wake of FOMC

USD/JPY is taking a breather for the second day in a row below its 4-year high at ¥116.35, made marginally above the August 2015 low at ¥116.21.  

A rise above the ¥116.21 to ¥116.35 zone would engage the October 2015 low as well as the December 2016 and January 2017 highs at ¥118.06 to ¥118.06.  

Slips should find support between the November high and the one-month support line at ¥115.52-¥115.39. Upside pressure should be maintained while the cross remains above this year’s current low at ¥114.95. 

 

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP struggle as GBP/USD heads lower

The euro continues to be under pressure against both the dollar and the pound while GBP/USD formed a minor top.

EuroSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 07 January 2022 

EUR/USD continues to struggle

EUR/USD continues to be subdued and still has the late-December low and also the November-to-December channel support line at $1.1274 to $1.1262 in its sights. Further support lies between the 7 and 20 December lows at $1.1237 to $1.1222, as well as at the November low at $1.1186 which remains in focus as well. 

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the cross stays below the $1.1346 level, the 5 January high. Only a currently unexpected advance above this level would put the mid-December and 29 December highs at $1.136 to $1.1369 back on the plate.  

Key resistance remains to be seen between the late-November and December peaks at $1.1382 to $1.1386. While the cross stays below it, the one-year downtrend stays firmly entrenched.

 

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP looks towards recent lows

EUR/GBP weighs on this year’s low to date at £0.8335, a slide through which would eye the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277. This area represents key long-term support which is expected to withstand the first test. 

Initial resistance remains to be seen between the October and November lows at £0.8381 to £0.8403. While the next higher early-January high at £0.8418 isn’t overcome, the downtrend which has been in place since September last year, remains intact. 

 

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD forms a short-term top

GBP/USD formed a minor top at $1.3598 in early January which has been accompanied by negative divergence on the daily 9-period RSI, pointing towards lower levels being seen. 

A retest of the one-month uptrend line at $1.351 is likely to unfold while $1.3598 caps with yesterday’s low at $1.3499, representing another technical target. Failure there would probably push the $1.3412 to $1.3402 support zone to the fore. It consists of the late-September low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December advance.  

Further, more significant support can be found between the mid-November low and the late-November to mid-December highs as well as the 50% retracement at $1.3375 to $1.3353. 

 

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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The euro eases off ahead of US inflation reading while GBP/USD continues to look bid

US CPI may prompt some USD strength, but GBP/USD continues to make headway. Video

USD
IG Analyst | Publication date: Monday 10 January 2022 

EUR/USD resumes its early January descent ahead of US inflation data

EUR/USD is giving back much of Friday’s gains as investors look forward to another U.S. inflation reading that could well set the seal on an early rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Downside targets are the one-month support line at $1.1287 as well as the late December low and the November-to-December channel support line at $1.1274 to $1.1266. Further support lies between the 7 and 20 December lows at $1.1237 to $1.1222 and at the November low at $1.1186.

All these levels are being targeted while no currently unexpected rise above last week’s high at $1.1365 is seen. If so, the mid-December and 29 December highs at $1.136 to $1.1369 would be back in the frame.

Key resistance remains to be seen between the late November and December peaks at $1.1382 to $1.1386. While the cross stays below it, the one-year downtrend retains the upper hand.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP flirts with support at £0.8335, a slip through which would eye £0.8313 to £0.8277

EUR/GBP is once more pounding this year’s low to date at £0.8335, a slide through which would eye the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277. This area represents key long-term support which is expected to withstand the first test.

Initial resistance is found between the October and November lows at £0.8381 to £0.8403.

While the next higher early January high at £0.8418 isn’t overcome, the downtrend – which has been in place since September of last year, remains firmly in charge.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD is having another go at breaking through the $1.360 mark

Over the last few days GBP/USD has been attempting to rise above its early January high at $1.3598 and reach the eight-month downtrend line at $1.361 but so far to no avail.

While the one-month support line and the December high at $1.3555 to $1.3551 underpin, however, upside pressure should be maintained. Further, minor support comes in at the $1.3514 mid-November high.

A rise and daily chart close above the downtrend line at $1.361 would open the way for the November high and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.3699 to $1.37 to be reached.

GBP/USDSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP benefit while USD/JPY takes a hit from change in U.S. inflation expectations

The euro has made gains against the dollar and sterling, while USD/JPY has fallen back.

GBPSource: Bloomberg
 
IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 11 January 2022 

EUR/USD stabilises thanks to a change in inflation expectations

While a more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike path still looks probable, the Euro seems to be benefiting from an outsized move in inflation expectations.

Yesterday EUR/USD dropped to but then bounced off the one-month support line. Today it is expected to range trade between it, the late December low and the November-to-December channel support line at $1.129 to $1.1272 on the one hand and last week’s high at $1.1365 on the other hand.

The cross is currently heading towards minor resistance which sits between the mid-December and 29 December highs at $1.136 to $1.1369. Key resistance remains to be seen between the late November and December peaks at $1.1382 to $1.1386. While the cross stays below it, the one-year downtrend remains in play.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to hover above the £0.8335 to £0.8332 support zone

EUR/GBP has so far managed to hold above this year’s lows to date at £0.8335 to £0.8332, a fall through which would push the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277 to the fore, though. This area represents key long-term support which is expected to underpin the cross when first revisited.

While the £0.8335 to £0.8332 area continues to offer support, resistance along the one-month downtrend line at £0.835 is to be retested and, if broken through, the October and late December lows and last few days intraday highs at £0.8365 to £0.8381 as well.

While the next higher early January high at £0.8418 isn’t overcome, the downtrend (in place since September of last year), remains intact.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY remains on the back foot

USD/JPY continues to come off its early January four-year high at ¥116.35 and slides towards minor support seen between the mid-November high and this year’s low to date at ¥114.97 to ¥114.95.

A tumble through the ¥114.95 low would likely provoke a deeper sell-off towards the mid-December high at ¥114.27. On the way down minor support can be spotted at the ¥114.70 October high and at the ¥114.44 early November high.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the currency pair stays below yesterday’s high at ¥115.85.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD held below resistance as GBP/USD and AUD/USD move up

The rally in GBP/USD shows no sign of slowing, while AUD/USD is also attempting to break higher. Video

USD
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 January 2022 

EUR/USD stuck below $1.14

The small rebound here continues with EUR/USD, although it has yet to break above the late December high.

This still looks more like a consolidation rather than a bigger move to the upside, so long as the $1.14 level remains unbroken. However, a bearish catalyst in price terms has yet to occur.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD counter-trend bounce still flying

The strong bounce of GBP/USD from the lows of December shows no sign of reversing, and for now, the price appears to remain firmly in a bullish view, at least in the short term.

The wider downtrend is still intact, but as yet a new lower high has yet to be created.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD rally hits 50-day SMA

The price of AUD/USD has rallied throughout the week, after stabilising around $0.716.

Over the past week or more gains above the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $0.721 have not been sustained, so a daily close above this will be an important development. Further gains would then target $0.727. It would take a reversal back below $0.716 would provide a more bearish view.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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The euro benefits while the US dollar is taking a dive

Euro strength pushes EUR/USD as dollar weakens. Videos

USD
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 January 2022 

The rally in EUR/USD continues unabated

EUR/USD continues to surge higher and is in the process of breaking out of its November-to-January channel which contained the cross until now.

The October-to-early-November lows at $1.1513 to $1.1539 are now firmly in view but are likely to put a dampener on the current advance. If not, we would have to allow for the September trough at $1.1563 to be reached as well.

Solid support can now be seen between the late-November and December highs at $1.1386 to $1.1383. While above there, upside pressure should retain the upper hand.

 

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to oscillate around the £0.8350 level

EUR/GBP is trying to recover from this year’s low to date at £0.8324 and is likely to reach the 55-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 240 minute chart at £0.8357. A rise above it would probably engage the £0.8366 to £0.8373 resistance area which acted as support late last year and as resistance early this year.

While the next higher early January high at £0.8418 isn’t exceeded, the longer term downtrend (in place since September of last year), remains intact.

Only a tumble through the recent low at £0.8324 would put the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277 on the cards. This area represents key long-term support which is expected to underpin the cross.

 

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY remains in free fall

USD/JPY continues to come off its early January 4-year high at ¥116.35 and drops towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and mid-December high at ¥114.30 to ¥114.27, having so far reached the ¥114.44 early November high.

In case of the above mentioned support giving way, the 29 November and 8 December highs at ¥113.96 would be next in line.

Good resistance now comes in between the mid-November high and the 3 January low at ¥114.95 to ¥114.97.

 

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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Euro rally is starting to lose upside momentum while cable remains bid

The euro’s gains are starting to slow but GBP/USD is holding up well. Video.

Forex-global-component-banner.jpg
IG Analyst | Publication date: Friday 14 January 2022 

EUR/USD is beginning to run out of steam ahead of resistance 

EUR/USD is still trying to break out of its November-to-January channel but is losing upside momentum along the channel resistance line. 

Upside targets are the October-to-early-November lows at $1.1513 to $1.1539. These are likely to stall the current rally in case it doesn’t run out of puff beforehand. Should this not be the case, the advance may extend to the September low at $1.1563. 

Good support remains to be seen between the late November and December highs at $1.1386 to $1.1383. While above there, an upside bias remains in play. 

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP trades along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8352 

EUR/GBP continues to range trade above this year’s low to date at £0.8324 and now flirts with the 55-period SMA on the 240-minute chart at £0.8352 with the £0.8366 to £0.8373 resistance zone capping at present. This comes as no surprise since it has already acted as support late last year and as resistance early this year.  

While the next higher early January high at £0.8418 isn’t exceeded, the longer-term September-to-January downtrend stays valid. 

Only a fall through the recent low at £0.8324 would push the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277 to the fore. It is where key long-term support can be found. 

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD continues to trade above the 200-day SMA at $1.3691 

There is no stopping the GBP/USD rally. Once the 23 September high at $1.3751 has been exceeded, the October high at $1.3835 will be targeted. Further up lies the September peak at $1.3913 around which the currency pair is likely to at least take a short-term breather.   

Slips should find support along the 200-day SMA at $1.3691. Further down minor support can be found at the early October highs at $1.3658 to $1.3648. 

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

 

 

 

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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD on hold while awaiting a batch of economic releases due later this week

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD in short-term consolidation mode whilst awaiting data. Video

USD
IG Analyst | Publication date: Monday 17 January 2022 

EUR/USD trades back towards the middle of its channel

Last week EUR/USD came off its $1.1483 high and slid back towards the middle of its November-to-January channel.

Today the late November and December lows at $1.1387 to $1.1383 are in focus. While this support zone underpins, however, an upside bias remains in play with the October-to-early-November lows at $1.1513 to $1.1539 representing upside targets. These are likely to stall the currency pair, though. Should this not be the case, the advance may extend to the September low at $1.1563.

Minor support below $1.1383 can be found between the 8 and 16 December highs at $1.1365 to $1.186.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to oscillate around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8347

EUR/GBP, like last week, still range trades above this year’s low to date at £0.8324 and keeps coming back to the 55-period SMA on the 240-minute chart at £0.8347 with the £0.8366 to £0.8373 resistance zone providing a ceiling for the cross. This comes as no surprise since it has already acted as support late last year and as resistance early this year.

While the next higher early January high at £0.8418 isn’t exceeded, the longer-term September-to-January downtrend remains valid.

Only a fall through the recent low at £0.8324 would put the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277 on the map. It is where key long-term support can be found.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD continues to play with the 200-day SMA at $1.3685

Last week GBP/USD rallied to $1.3749 before consolidating slightly and trading back along the 200 day SMA at $1.3685. The steep uptrend is very much intact, though, with the two-month uptrend line coming in at $1.3657. Further down minor support can be seen at the early October highs at $1.3658 to $1.3648.

Once the 23 September high at $1.3751 has been bettered, the October high at $1.3835 will be in focus. Further up beckons the September peak at $1.3913 around which the currency pair is likely to at least take a short-term breather.

 

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP weaker, while USD/JPY continues its ascent

EUR/USD slides post German ZEW, EUR/GBP weaker post-UK jobs data, while USD/JPY bid in wake of Boj inflation outlook.

EUR/USD, and GBP/USD likely to decline as USD/JPY breaks resistance |  Levels to Watch | IG South AfricaSource: Bloomberg
 
IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 18 January 2022 

EUR/USD weighs on minor support from $1.1387 to $1.1383 post German ZEW

EUR/USD is trading back in the middle of its November-to-January channel and probes the late-November and December lows at $1.1387 to $1.1383. A new impetus may be given by US players returning to the markets after Martin Luther King Jr Day and German ZEW economic sentiment data.

While the $1.1387 to $1.1383 support zone underpins on a daily closing basis, the two-month upside bias remains intact with the October to early-November lows at $1.1513 to $1.1539 still potentially being reached in the days and weeks to come. These are likely to stall the currency pair, though. Should this not be the case, the gradual uptrend may take it to the September low at $1.1563.

Minor support below $1.1383 can be found between the 8 and 16 December highs at $1.1360 to $1.1355. Below it lies the 27 November low at $1.1332.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP slips in the wake of UK jobs data

EUR/GBP briefly slid back towards this year’s low to date at £0.8324 following the UK unemployment rate coming in at 4.1%. The cross keeps returning to the 55- and 200-hour simple moving averages (SMA) at £0.8353 to £0.8348, having been rejected by £0.8364 in the Asian session.

This high was made close to the £0.8366 to £0.8373 resistance zone which the currency pair finds difficult to overcome since it has already been tested several times, as support late last year and as resistance earlier this year.

While the next higher early-January high at £0.8418 isn’t exceeded, the longer-term September-to-January downtrend retains the upper hand. A tumble through the current January low at £0.8324 would engage the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277, representing key long-term support.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

Bullish reversal in USD/JPY is gaining traction following Boj inflation outlook

USD/JPY continues its rise from last week’s ¥113.48 low, carried by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) upgraded inflation forecasts which flagged heightening chances the recent commodity-driven price hikes will broaden, while keeping interest rates unchanged.

The November peak at ¥115.52 will need to be exceeded, though, for the early January 4-year high at ¥116.35 to be back in the pipeline. Slips should find support along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥114.33 and mid-December high at ¥114.28. Further, minor support can be found at the 29 November and 8 December highs at ¥113.96.

EUR/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD falls back as GBP/USD moves higher, while USD/JPY holds steady

EUR/USD is heading back to trendline support, while the pound has made some gains against the dollar following UK CPI figures.

EuroSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 January 2022 

EUR/USD falters after gains

EUR/USD has returning to trendline support, holding above the 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) for now.

This week’s reversal, accompanied by a potential bearish moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) crossover, points towards a lower high that revives the downtrend of the past year. If the price breaks below $1.13 the bearish view will be strengthened once again, and the price could head back towards $1.1186. A bounce from the 50-day SMA would head back towards $1.14.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD moves up after losses

After reversing for three days the GBP/USD price has edged up, but short-term decline remains in place.

A reversal back above $1.362 would mark a short-term break to the upside, targeting the previous lower highs at $1.366 and $1.368. Further declines would bring $1.358 into view, and potentially mark a continuation of the downtrend seen since the end of last week.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY stalled after volatile Tuesday

The expected rebound has not yet materialised, with sellers hitting the USD/JPY price to stall any further progress. The price is stalled at present, but continues to hold above the 50-day SMA (¥114.34).

For now the outlook is neutral, with a move back above ¥115.00 likely to revive the bullish view. Meanwhile a more bearish view would develop with a drop below ¥114.00, although even then Friday’s low at ¥113.48 would still need to be broken to open the path to more downside.

USD/JPYSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP steady while USD/JPY resumes its descent

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP stabilise while USD/JPY slips as BoJ warns of inflationary pressures. Video

EUR/USD, and GBP/USD likely to decline as USD/JPY breaks resistance |  Levels to Watch | IG South Africa
IG Analyst | Publication date: Thursday 20 January 2022 

EUR/USD steadies amidst a weaker US Dollar

EUR/USD is trading back towards the lower end of its November-to-January channel whilst so far holding above this week’s low at $1.1315 and the channel support line at $1.1302.

A minor bullish retracement back towards the late November and December highs at $1.1383 to $1.1387 may thus ensue. While the cross stays below the last reaction high at $1.1435, the bears should retain the upper hand, though.

A slide through the channel support line at $1.1302 would probably lead to the late December and early January lows at $1.1274 to $1.1272 being revisited. Below these levels lies the mid-December low at $1.1222.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP levels out above yesterday’s low at £0.8313

Yesterday EUR/GBP briefly made a new year-to-date (YTD) low at £0.8313 as traders welcomed UK government plans to lift Omicron restrictions from next week onwards.

Downside pressure is currently being maintained with the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8313 to £0.8277 likely to be revisited. This area represents key long-term support and will probably again hold, if tested. Only if slid through, would the way open up for the next lower April 2016 high at £0.8118 to be reached.

From a wider perspective, a break back above this week’s high at £0.8379 would be required to bring a more neutral picture into play.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY back in the doldrums as BoJ flagged broadening inflationary pressures

The Japanese Yen is clinging to gains over the past two sessions, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) warned that inflation may accelerate faster than anticipated.

USD/JPY is gradually drifting lower towards the 29 November and 8 December highs at ¥113.96 and last week’s ¥113.48 low. This situation is expected to endure while the cross remains below this week’s high at ¥115.06.

The ¥115.06 level and the November peak at ¥115.52 will need to be exceeded, for the early January four-year high at ¥116.35 to be back on the plate.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY remain bearish but find short-term support

EUR/USD and USD/JPY probe trend lines while EUR/GBP stabilises at key support amidst much weaker than expected UK retail sales.

USD/JPYSource: Bloomberg
 
IG Analyst | Publication date: Friday 21 January 2022 

EUR/USD weighs on channel support

EUR/USD slid all the way back to its two-month channel support line at $1.1304 which offered short-term support.

A drop through and weekly Friday close below the channel support line at $1.1304 would engage the late December and early January lows at $1.1274 to $1.1272. Further down sit the mid-December low at $1.1222 as well as the November trough at $1.1186, both of which would become downside targets on a drop below the $1.1272 early January low.

Immediate downside pressure will remain in play while the cross stays below yesterday’s high at $1.1369 and, more importantly, the late-November and December highs at $1.1383 to $1.1387.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP levels out above yesterday’s low at £0.8305 post weaker than expected UK retail sales

Yesterday EUR/GBP briefly made a new year-to-date (YTD) low at £0.8305, right within the £0.8313 to £0.8277 major support area, made up of the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows.

Short-term minor stabilisation is likely to be seen over the next few days since positive divergence on the daily relative strength index (RSI) accompanied this week’s low at £0.8305 which itself was made at key support. Divergence between the price and an indicator more often than not leads to at least some consolidation and can sometimes trigger a trend reversal. In case of the EUR/GBP pair, the two-month resistance line and December low at £0.8358 to £0.8368 have been revisited in the wake of month-on-month (MoM) UK retail sales which came in at -3.7% versus -0.6% expected and +1.% the previous month.

While this week’s high at £0.8379 isn’t exceeded, however, overall downside pressure should remain in play with the December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8282 to £0.8277 representing key long-term support which will probably again hold, if tested. Only if slid through, would the way open up for the next lower April 2016 high at £0.8118 to be reached.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY slid to two-month uptrend line as Japan CPI rises the most in 2 years

The Japanese yen strengthened further versus the US Dollar as Japan’s consumer prices showed the highest annual inflation rate since December 2019.

From a technical perspective, the two-month uptrend line at ¥113.63 offered USD/JPY support in Asian trading, though, marginally above last week’s low at ¥113.48. If fallen through, the mid-December trough at ¥113.14 would represent the next downside target, together with the late November low at ¥112.53.

Minor resistance can be encountered along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥114.30 as well as along the one-month downtrend line at ¥114.72. The next higher ¥115.06 mid-January high and the November peak at ¥115.52 would need to be bettered for the bearish outlook to be questioned.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD under pressure while EUR/GBP consolidates

EUR/USD and GBP/USD ease off preceding FOMC while EUR/GBP pauses near resistance.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
IG Analyst | Publication date: Monday 24 January 2022 

EUR/USD slips back towards channel support line ahead of FOMC

EUR/USD is revisiting its two-month channel support line at $1.1307 which held last week, but this week may well give way ahead of key policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday.

A fall through the channel support line at $1.1307 would push the late December and early January lows at $1.1274 to $1.1272 to the fore. Further down lie the mid-December low at $1.1222 as well as the November trough at $1.1186, both of which would become downside targets on a slip through the $1.1272 early January low.

Immediate downside pressure will remain in play while the cross stays below the 16 January high at $1.1369 and, more importantly, the late November and December highs at $1.1383 to $1.1387.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP gives back some of last week’s gains

Last week EUR/GBP made a new year-to-date low at £0.8305, right between the £0.8313 to £0.8277 December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows, before shooting up on weaker than expected UK retail sales.

While the November low and last week’s high at £0.8379 to £0.8381 aren’t bettered, however, overall downside pressure should retain the upper hand with the December 2019 and February 2020 lows at £0.8282 to £0.8277 representing key long-term support which will probably again hold, if revisited. Only if fallen through, would the April 2016 high at £0.8118 be in focus.

A break above resistance at £0.8381 would lead to the £0.8403 October low being eyed. Further up, this year’s high-to-date can be seen at £0.8419.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD slides towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1.3526

GBP/USD's descent since its $1.3749 mid-January peak has practically taken it back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December-to-January advance at $1.3526, below which the mid-November high at $1.3514 is to offer short-term support.

Slightly further down the 6 January low can be found at $1.349 and this year’s low-to-date at $1.3431.

Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal and rise above the 20 January last reaction high and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.3662 to $1.3668 would invalidate the current short-term bearish pressure.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/GBP bottomed out while EUR/USD and USD/JPY await FOMC

USD/JPY levelled out, while the euro is struggling to make headway against both the dollar and the pound.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 
IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 25 January 2022 

EUR/USD continues to weigh on channel support line, awaiting FOMC

EUR/USD keeps testing the two-month channel support line at $1.1292 which may still be slipped through ahead of key policy decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tomorrow.

Together with the late December and early January lows at $1.1274 to $1.1272 the channel support line has held since late December. A fall through this support zone would put the mid-December low at $1.1222 as well as the November trough at $1.1186 on the map.

The downtrend remains firmly entrenched while the currency pair stays below the 16 January high at $1.1369 and, more importantly, the late November and December highs at $1.1383 to $1.1387.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP has formed a bottom and is likely to rise further still

Now that the November low and last week’s high at £0.8379 to £0.8381 have been exceeded, EUR/GBP is deemed to have formed a bottom at its year-to-date low at £0.8305. It was made right between the £0.8313 to £0.8277 December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows which represent key long-term support.

Given yesterday’s advance above the £0.8379 to £0.8381 resistance area and the brief rise above the early January £0.8419 high, the medium-term forecast has been neutralised with further short-term upside pressure remaining in the pipeline. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and mid-December low at £0.8436 to £0.8454 are now being eyed.

Slips, because of inverse polarity, should find support around previous resistance, namely in the £0.8381 to £0.8379 area. While the cross stays above yesterday’s low at £0.8351, further short-term upside is expected to be observed.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY is to meander further above its ¥113.48 early January low ahead of FOMC

Yesterday USD/JPY probed but then bounced off its early January low at ¥113.48 with further short-term range trading above it likely to be seen ahead of tomorrow’s much anticipated US FOMC meeting.

A drop below yesterday’s ¥113.47 low would lead to the mid-December low at ¥113.14 being targeted, together with the late November low at ¥112.53.

Minor resistance continues to be seen along the 55-day SMA at ¥114.28 as well as along the one-month downtrend line at ¥114.38. The next higher ¥115.06 mid-January high and the November peak at ¥115.52 would need to be exceeded for the still bearish outlook to be invalidated.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP neutral ahead of FOMC but GBP/USD forms a bullish reversal pattern

GBP/USD forms a bullish hammer reversal pattern on the daily candlestick chart, while the euro struggles against both the dollar and the pound.

EUR/GBPSource: Bloomberg
 
IG Analyst | Publication date: Wednesday 26 January 2022 

EUR/USD still flirts with the channel support line ahead of the FOMC statement

Yesterday EUR/USD briefly slid through the two-month channel support line at $1.1294, to a new January low at $1.1263, before trading back around the channel line ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A drop through yesterday’s low at $1.1263 would lead to the mid-December low at $1.1222 as well as the November trough at $1.1186 being eyed.

So far, the downtrend from mid-January continues to cap the cross. While EUR/USD remains below the last reaction high at $1.1369, the 20 January high, the bears stay in control. Above it, more significant resistance can be made out between the late-November and December highs at $1.1383 to $1.1387.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP gives back most of this week’s gains

Even though EUR/GBP technically formed a bottom by rising above the November low and last week’s high at £0.8379 to £0.8381, yesterday’s slip may trigger further short-term weakness which is likely to peter out above the current January low at £0.8305, however. This low was made right within major support at £0.8313 to £0.8277, consisting of the December 2016, April 2017, December 2019 and February 2020 lows.

While EUR/GBP stays above the 24 January low at £0.8351, the bulls should retain the upper hand. A drop below this level may lead to the early-January low at £0.8335 being back in the picture, though. Together with the 11 January trough at £0.8324, this level is expected to withstand any downside pressure before renewed upside momentum is likely to enter the fray. Good resistance can now be found between early January and this week’s highs at £0.8419 to £0.8423.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD formed a hammer on the daily candlestick chart

GBP/USD's descent since its $1.3749 mid-January peak has practically taken it back to its early January low at $1.3431 by dropping to yesterday’s low at $1.3436 before forming a bullish Hammer on the daily candlestick chart. This may well denote the end of the last couple of weeks’ countertrend correction.

While $1.3431 underpins, a rise back towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.3661 is to ensue, confirmation of which would be an advance above the 24 January high at $1.3565. Currently, unexpected failure at $1.3431 could lead to a drop to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement and mid-December high at $1.3387 to $1.3374 to ensue, however.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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