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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP slide while USD/JPY continues to surge higher

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP continue their descents amid low volatility while USD/JPY’s exponential rally is ongoing with it trading at levels last seen in August 2015.

GBPSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 28 March 2022 

EUR/USD remains under pressure ahead of busy US data calendar

EUR/USD continues to slide below its two-month downtrend line at $1.1035 towards the mid-March $1.0901 low as investors await US consumer confidence, core PCE price index and employment data and mull the latest developments of the Russia-Ukraine war which last week entered its second month.

A slip through the mid-March $1.0901 low would target the $1.0806 early March low. While the cross remains below the mid-March high at $1.1137, this year’s downtrend remains intact.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP trades on weaker footing

Last week EUR/GBP reached but ran out of steam slightly above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and 11 March low at £0.837 as UK March consumer confidence and retail sales data came in weaker than expected which pushed the EUR/GBP exchange rate higher.

Since then, it has resumed its descent towards the £0.8305 to £0.8286 region which offered support in January and February and may do so again in the days to come.

Resistance above last week’s high at £0.837 can be found between the 16 February and 25 February highs at £0.8402 to £0.8408.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY continues to surge higher

USD/JPY is fast approaching the June 2007 high at ¥124.13, having risen by over +7% since the beginning of March as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) re-iterates its dovish stance despite inflation hitting 3-year highs while traders price in potentially aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (FED).

The area around the June 2007 high at ¥124.13 is expected to cap the currency pair in the short term, since the last three weeks’ steep rate of ascent is most likely not sustainable. Were the ¥124.13 high to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis, however, the June 2015 peak at ¥125.85 would be within reach.

Minor retracements may find support at the 24 March ¥122.43 high and further down between the 22 March high and 25 March low at ¥121.41 to ¥121.18.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD awaits data, EUR/GBP close to resistance as AUD/USD stalls

EUR/USD trades in low volatility while EUR/GBP snapped back up but nears technical resistance, just as AUD/USD did before stalling.

 

 

EUR/USD trades sideways in low volatility ahead of US data

EUR/USD continues to range trade in low volatility below its two-month downtrend line at $1.1023 as traders await US consumer confidence, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and employment data.

A slip through yesterday’s low at $1.0945 would engage the mid-March $1.0901 low. Further down sits the $1.0806 early March low.

Minor resistance above the downtrend line can be spotted at yesterday’s $1.1037 high. While the cross remains below the next higher mid-March high at $1.1137, this year’s downtrend remains intact.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP rally approaches resistance zone which may cap

EUR/GBP’s advance off last week’s £0.8296 low is about to reach the 16 February and 25 February highs at £0.8402 to £0.8408 around which the cross may stall, though.

If not, the current March high at £0.8458 would be back in play, together with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8471.

Minor support can be found along the 55-day SMA and 11 March low at £0.8362 to £0.836. Then there is yesterday’s low at £0.8322.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

Respite for the AUD/USD rally

AUD/USD’s strong rally has come close to its $0.7555 October peak but stalled just shy of it at $0.754 despite strong Australian retail sales data as traders assess the situation in Ukraine, the fall in the oil price and lockdowns in China.

This has come as no surprise to technical analysts since previous lows and highs often act as initial resistance when they are revisited. In this case the February and March 2021 lows with the October 2021 high at $0.7532 to $0.7564 create such a resistance zone.

Range trading below the $0.754 to $0.7555 October and current March highs is likely to ensue today. Support below yesterday’s low at $0.7467 can be spotted at the 7 March high at $0.7441. Only a rise and daily chart close above the February 2021 low at $0.7564 would push the January 2021 high at $0.782 to the fore.

AUD/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD move up while USD/JPY falls sharply

A possible sign of progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine has boosted EUR/USD, and GBP/USD has moved higher as well. USD/JPY, however, has fallen sharply.

 

 

EUR/USD moves higher

EUR/USD has made significant progress over the last two days, moving back above $1.11 and heading to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $1.1184. Additional upside from here heads towards trendline resistance around $1.13, but this would still create a lower high. Recent gains have been capped below $1.113, so a move above here would strengthen the short-term bullish view.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD edges up

After losses earlier in the week, GBP/USD held its ground yesterday, and has edged higher this morning. This stabilisation could point towards a fresh attempt to move higher, targeting the highs from a week ago near $1.33. A reversal below $1.305 would hand the initiative to the sellers.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY rally goes into reverse

At last, the sellers seem to have found their strength, pushing USD/JPY back below ¥122.00 after a huge rally this month. The latest higher high this week at ¥125.00 confirms the uptrend, but now a deeper retracement could come into play, potentially targeting a move back towards the 50-day SMA over time.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD in near one-month, EUR/GBP in three-month highs while USD/JPY slips lower

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP continue their advance as high inflation puts the ECB under pressure to start tightening its monetary policy while USD/JPY gives back some of its recent gains amid a weaker US dollar.

JPYSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 31 March 2022 

EUR/USD trades in near one-month highs

EUR/USD has risen above its $1.1137 mid-March high and is fast approaching the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.1199 in the wake of the highest German inflation reading since 1990 at 7.3%, putting the European Central Bank (ECB) under pressure to start tightening its monetary policy.

Further up resistance sits at the $1.128 mid-February low.

Minor support comes in between the January low, 10 and 17 March highs at $1.1137 to $1.1122. Slightly further down sits the 24 February low at $1.1107.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP trades in three-month highs above the £0.8478 to £0.8458 support zone

EUR/GBP’s swift ascent has taken it to a three-month high at £0.8512 earlier today on the back of renewed buying interest in the Euro as markets continue to price in tighter monetary policy conditions.

The cross is likely to revisit the £0.8478 to £0.8458 support zone which incorporates the February and mid-March highs as well as the 200-day SMA. As such it is expected to hold today. If not, the late January high at £0.8422 would be back in the frame.

Above today’s high at £0.8512 lies the late December high at £0.8554.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY continues to give back recent gains

On Monday USD/JPY briefly overshot the June 2007 high at ¥124.13 and rallied to ¥125.10, to not far below the June 2015 peak at ¥125.85, before giving back some of its recent gains on the back of a weaker US dollar, due to the slightly better Ukraine/Russia backdrop.

The cross became increasingly overbought as it had risen by over +8% since the beginning of March as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) re-iterated its dovish stance despite inflation hitting 3-year highs while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is seen hiking rates by 50 basis points (bp) at the next two Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings to contain sky-high US inflation.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD under pressure as USD/JPY recovers

A stronger dollar has lifted USD/JPY, while putting pressure on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 01 April 2022 

EUR/USD lower high now in play?

The bounce here with EUR/USD has stalled at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and with the pair beginning to move lower in opening trading a fresh move to the downside may be developing.

This might signal the resumption of the downtrend, potentially targeting $1.08 and lower. A rally above $1.12 negates this view.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD heads lower

The small gains with GBP/USD from earlier in the week appear to be at risk, as the price drops back towards $1.312.

Additional declines below $1.305 would put the price below Tuesday’s low, and open the way to $1.3 and lower.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY recovers some losses

After slowing its decline yesterday USD/JPY has moved higher, recouping some lost ground. This revival puts recent highs at ¥125.00 into view.

Sellers will need to find a way to push the price back below ¥121.30 to suggest a deeper retracement is still possible.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD under pressure and USD/JPY recovers, while GBP/USD holds steady

A strengthened dollar has lifted USD/JPY again, while putting pressure on EUR/USD. For now, sterling appears to be holding its ground against the dollar.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 04 April 2022 

EUR/USD in retreat from recent highs

Two days of losses in EUR/USD and a retreat from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $1.1169 point towards a potential lower high and the beginning of a new leg lower for the pair. This would bring $1.08 into view, the low from the beginning of March into play. Stochastics have rolled over too, suggesting this downtrend has further to run.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD steady despite losses

GBP/USD price has managed to hold its ground despite coming under some pressure on Friday. As yet further losses have not materialised, although a drop below $1.305 would mark a bearish development. Buyers will want to see a move back above $1.318 to open the way to a potential challenge of the highs from the second half of March, around $1.328.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY pushes higher

Friday’s jobs report strengthened the dollar, reversing some of the recent losses. It looks like USD/JPY may push back to the late March highs, despite the apparent overextension of the rally indicated by the yawning gap with the 50-day SMA ¥117.10. Sellers would need to push the price back below ¥121.20 to suggest a nearterm retracement is underway.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP slip on euro weakness while AUD/USD rallies post RBA meeting

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP continue to slide on the back of a depreciating euro while the Australian dollar surges higher as the RBA drops the ‘patient’ pledge in its April statement, pointing to future rate hikes.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 05 April 2022 

EUR/USD slips towards $1.0945 late March low

EUR/USD has slipped through its one-month downtrend line at $1.1002 and is heading down towards its late March low at $1.0945 as traders await US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March.

A slip through $1.0945 would engage the mid-March $1.0901 low. Further down sits the $1.0806 early March low.

Strong resistance remains to be seen between the January low and March high at $1.1122 to $1.1185. While the cross stays below this area, this year’s downtrend remains intact.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance

EUR/GBP’s swift decline weighs on one-month support line

EUR/GBP’s bearish reversal from its £0.8512 late-March high is grappling with the one-month support line at £0.8365, a daily chart close below which would push the £0.8305 to £0.8286 support zone to the fore. It consists of several daily lows made in January, February and on 23 March.

Minor resistance can be spotted between the 16 and 25 of February highs at £0.8402 to £0.8408.

Further up lies the mid-March high at £0.8458 and meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8467.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance

AUD/USD trades in ten-month highs on RBA rate hike expectations

AUD/USD surges higher after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped the ‘patient’ pledge in its April statement, leading investors to believe that the central bank will start to raise rates at its next meeting, having kept these at their record low of 0.1% for the 16th month in a row in today’s meeting.

The cross is trading at levels last seen in June 2021 and targets that month’s high at $0.7775, as well as the January 2021 peak at $0.782.

Previous resistance at $0.7564 to $0.7532, consisting of the January and March 2021 lows and October 2021 high, should now act as support, if revisited at all.

AUD/USD chartSource: IT-Finance
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP GBP/USD slip on Euro weakness and US Dollar strength

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP continue to drop amid a depreciating Euro with GBP/USD being under the cosh as well as the US Dollar continues its strong appreciation.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 06 April 2022 

EUR/USD slips towards the $1.0806 March low

EUR/USD is seen sliding for its fifth consecutive day and is fast approaching the $1.0806 early March low as the US Dollar continues to appreciate ahead of this evening’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

Given the strength of the current decline, which has come after a corrective wave to the upside during much of March, it is likely that the $1.0806 low will soon be fallen through with the February 2020 low at $1.0778 representing the next downside target. Further down lies the $1.0727 April 2020 low.

The late March low at $1.0945 and breached one-month downtrend line at $1.1008 should now act as resistance, if revisited at all. Major resistance remains to be seen between the January low and March high at $1.1122 to $1.1185. While the cross stays below this area, the long-term downtrend remains valid.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP’s swift decline is heading towards a support zone

EUR/GBP’s bearish reversal from its £0.8512 late March high has taken it through the one-month support line at £0.8373 towards the £0.8305 to £0.8286 support area on the back of a weaker Euro as German factory orders decline by 2.2% month-on-month (MoM), much worse than the expected 0.2% drop.

It is the first fall in four months as supply constraints, soaring energy prices and uncertainty linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine negatively impact foreign demand. The £0.8305 to £0.8286 support zone contains several daily lows made in January, February and on the 23 March and as such is expected to withstand the first test.

Minor resistance above the breached one-month support line at £0.8373 can be spotted between the 16 and 25 February highs at £0.8402 to £0.8408.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD continues its descent towards the March low at $1.3001

GBP/USD earlier today flirted with the late March low at $1.3051 as the US dollar continues to appreciate amid investors betting on the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising rates by 225 basis points (bp) by year end.

A fall through $1.3051 would engage the March trough at $1.3001, below which there is no support to speak of until the $128.55 to $1.2813 June 2020 high and November 2020 low.

Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the cross remains below the two-month downtrend line at $1.3149 and, more importantly, the 30 March and 5 April highs at $1.3167 to $1.3182.

GBP/USDSource: IT-Finance.com
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US Dollar Index trades in near 2-year highs as EUR/USD, EUR/GBP slide

The US Dollar Index trades in 23-month highs while EUR/USD and EUR/GBP continue to sell off amid depreciating Euro.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 07 April 2022 

EUR/USD drops towards the $1.0806 March low

EUR/USD is seen sliding for its sixth consecutive day towards the $1.0806 early March low as the US Dollar continues to appreciate following the publication of the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes which confirmed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance and rapid balance sheet unwind.

In view of the speed of the current decline, it is expected that the $1.0806 low will soon be slid through with the February 2020 low at $1.0778 representing the next downside target. Further down sits the $1.0727 April 2020 low. The late March low at $1.0945 and breached one-month downtrend line at $1.102 should now act as resistance, if revisited at all.

Major resistance remains to be seen between the January low and March high at $1.1122 to $1.1185. While the cross stays below this area, the long term downtrend remains intact.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP’s swift decline nears support zone

EUR/GBP’s drop through the one-month support line at £0.838 has taken it close to the £0.8305 to £0.8286 support area as traders assess the impact additional sanctions on Russia may have on European economies.

The £0.8305 to £0.8286 support area contains several daily lows made in January, February and on the 23 March and as such is expected to withstand the first test. If not, one would have to allow for the March trough at £0.8203 to be back in focus.

Minor resistance is seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8369 and also along the breached one-month support line, now resistance line, at £0.838. Further up sit the 16 and 25 February highs at £0.8402 to £0.8408.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

The US Dollar Basket remains in 23-month highs

Since yesterday the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in near 2-year highs as bonds dropped aggressively and equites sold off in the wake of the US Fed Vice Chair-elect Lael Brainard comments which put the reduction in Fed’s balance sheet back at the centre of the monetary policy discussion.

The psychological 100.00 mark is within reach, now that a break out of the one-month consolidation phase has taken place. For the past month or so the index has been capped by the 99.29 to 99.45 resistance area but repeatedly bounced off the 97.78 to 97.69 support zone.

Slips may find support between the 4 and 28 March highs at 99.33 to 99.29. Further down sits the 22 March high at 98.94 which may also offer support, if revisited at all.

DXY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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US Dollar Index nears psychological 100 mark as EUR/USD, EUR/GBP slide further

The US Dollar Index is trading at levels last seen in May 2020 and targets that month’s high at 100.60 while the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP continue to slide ahead of France’s Sunday first round presidential election.

EURSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 08 April 2022

EUR/USD is getting ever closer to the $1.0806 March low

EUR/USD is seen sliding for its seventh consecutive day and by nearly 3% from last week’s high towards the $1.0806 early March low as the US Dollar (USD) continues to appreciate following the publication of the March Federal Open Market Commitee (FOMC) minutes which pointed to a rapid balance sheet unwind and faster interest rate hikes to nip surging inflation in the bud.

In view of the speed of the current decline, it is expected that the $1.0806 low will soon be fallen through with the February 2020 low at $1.0778 representing the next downside target. Further down sits the $1.0727 April 2020 low.

Above yesterday’s high at $109.38, minor resistance can be spotted at the late March low at $1.0945 and breached one-month downtrend line at $1.1029. Major resistance remains to be seen between the January low and March high at $1.1122 to $1.1185. While the cross stays below this area, the long-term downtrend remains valid.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP’s swift decline nears £0.8305 to £0.8286 support zone

EUR/GBP’s near 2.5% decline from last week’s high at £0.8512 has taken it very close to the £0.8305 to £0.8286 support area as the Euro continues its slide on worries about Sunday’s first round presidential election in France as polls show that the race between incumbent president Macron and contender Marine le Pen is narrowing.

The £0.8305 to £0.8286 support area contains several daily lows made in January, February and on the 23 of March and as such is expected to hold today. If not, the March trough at £0.8203 would be targeted.

Minor resistance is seen between yesterday’s high and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8364 to £0.8368 and also along the breached one-month support line, now resistance line, at £0.8388. Further up sit the 16 and 25 of February highs at £0.8402 to £0.8408.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

The US Dollar Index edges higher towards the critical 100 mark

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in 23-month highs, underpinned by the prospect of a more aggressive pace of US Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening and hawkish remarks from several FOMC committee members who called for faster interest rate hikes to curb surging inflation.

The US Dollar Basket, which has risen for six consecutive days, is about to hit the psychological 100.00 mark, having earlier in the week broken out of its one-month consolidation to the upside. Previously the index had been capped by the 99.29 to 99.45 resistance area but repeatedly bounced off the 97.78 to 97.69 support zone. The former should now act as support.

Further down sits the 22 March high at 98.94 which may also offer support, if revisited at all. Above the 100 mark the May 2020 high at 100.60 represents the next upside target.

DXY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP remain under pressure while USD/JPY trades in near 20-year highs

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP flirt with last week’s lows as worries about the outcome of the French presidential election weigh on the Euro while USD/JPY is trading at levels last seen in May 2002.

EUR/USDBloomberg
 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 19 April 2022

EUR/USD drops towards the $1.0727 April 2020 low on firmer Dollar

EUR/USD revisits last week’s low at $1.0758, having slid through its $1.0806 early March low, with the April 2020 trough at $1.0727 being next in line.

The US Dollar continues to appreciate amid escalating worries of further lockdowns in China, Russia apparently beginning the second phase of its advance in the Donbas region of Ukraine and mounting signs of more interest rate hikes being in the pipeline globally.

This contrasts with ongoing Euro weakness due to the war in Ukraine and worries about the outcome of this weekend’s second round of France’s presidential election in which the incumbent Emmanuel Macron is battling it out with his right-wing rival Marine Le Pen.

The trend in EUR/USD will remain immediately bearish while the cross stays below the late March low and last week’s high at $1.0933 to $1.0945 with the March 2020 low at $1.0638 representing a downside target for the weeks ahead.

Major resistance remains to be seen between the January low and March high at $1.1122 to $1.1185. While the cross stays below this area, the long-term downtrend remains intact.

EUR/USDIT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP’s bounce off last week’s low at £0.8250 looks vulnerable

EUR/GBP bounce off Thursday’s £0.825 low has been very tepid with the cross so far not even reaching the 23 March low at £0.8296 as the Euro remains under pressure amid heightened tensions in Eastern Ukraine and worries surrounding the second round of the French presidential elections.

Further minor resistance is found at the £0.8308 8 April low and at the £0.8322 late March low.

A fall through last week’s low at £0.825 would put the March trough at ££0.8203 on the map.

EUR/GBPIT-Finance.com

USD/JPY trades in near 20-year highs

USD/JPY is trading at levels last seen in May 2002, having practically closed higher every single day since the beginning of April, probably its longest losing streak in at least half a century , as traders continue to focus on the widening gap between US and Japanese interest rates.

Comments by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of St. Louis President James Bullard which mentioned the possibility of 75 basis point (bp) rate hikes being seen in the US led to another surge higher in the USD/JPY cross with it gunning for the ¥135.18 January 2002 peak.

Good support can now be seen between the June 2015 and March 2022 highs at ¥125.85 to ¥125.10 which is unlikely to be revisited anytime soon, though, if the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) keeps sticking to its dovish stance despite inflation hitting at 3-year highs.

USD/JPYIT-Finance.com
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GBP/USD holds firm, while US dollar weakens versus Aussie and Canadian dollars

The pound is holding steady against the dollar, but the greenback is struggling against the Aussie and the Loonie.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 20 April 2022 

GBP/USD still hovering above $1.30

The pound has edged up this morning and has avoided pushing through recent lows with GBP/USD. Once again, the dollar seems to have the upper hand overall, as US policymakers begin to talk about the need for an even faster pace of rate increases to deal with inflation.

Supply chain worries coming out of China thanks to their strict lockdown policies threaten to intensify the rise in prices, and even previously firm dove Neel Kashkari is calling for a more aggressive response to inflationary pressures. Set against this, the Bank of England's (BoE’s) more cautious approach leaves the pound lacking support against the greenback in the medium term.

But for now, the pair continues to hold $1.3. In the event of a turn lower, $1.2854 and then $1.2773 come into view as downside targets. Meanwhile to the upside the price will look towards $1.314.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD recovers for a second day

AUD/USD has bounced from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is making firm moves to the upside after the decline of the last three weeks. Stronger commodity prices have helped the Aussie to make some headway against the US dollar, potentially marking a resumption of the upward moves from February and the first half of March.

This comes despite the talk by some Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members of an event faster pace of tightening. But the Australian economy continues to be a major beneficiary of rising commodity prices, and thus investors continue to scramble over one another to gain exposure to the economy.

Current price action does point towards the creation of a higher low over the past two days; the price hit the 50-day SMA on Monday and then moved higher yesterday, building on those gains today. After the pullback from the April higher high, a new higher low would reinforce the bullish view and bring $0.76 back into view.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/CAD risks a fresh downturn

The US dollar appears to be at risk of a new decline against the Loonie, as the April bounce fizzles out in the C$1.265 area. Here too the US dollar’s triumphal progress has been halted, and after the small bounce in early April USD/CAD looks set for further declines.

The oil weakness we saw yesterday provided some respite, but talk of further increases in the pace of US tightening is not having the same effect as in other currency pairs.

Having seen the price falter at the 50-day SMA and now the 200-day SMA, traders may expect an additional turn lower. This puts the C$1.245 lows from the beginning of April back into play, and potentially lower. Longs have a major set of hurdles around C$1.26 and higher to navigate if a more bullish view is to emerge.

USD/CAD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP rally post French election TV debate while GBP/USD stalls

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP were boosted by yesterday’s French election TV debate which does not seem to have dented the incumbent’s chances of winning Sunday’s election while GBP/USD stalls.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 21 April 2022 

EUR/USD swiftly bounces off support

EUR/USD rally off last week’s low at $1.0758 has taken the cross to the minor $1.0933 to $1.0945 resistance zone. The rally in EUR/USD has come on the back of falling US Treasury yields and a slightly widening gap in the opinion polls between the centrist incumbent Emmanuel Macron and his far-right rival Marine Le Pen, projecting the former to secure between 53% and 57% of the vote in Sunday’s second round of the French presidential election.

Yesterday’s over 2 1/2-hour long television debate between the two candidates probably didn’t have much of an impact on the overall outcome which the Euro took as a positive and accelerated higher. Were the $1.0933 to $1.0945 late March low and 6, 7 and 11 April highs to be exceeded, a pause in the currency pair’s downtrend would likely unfold, especially since positive divergence can be spotted on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI). A possible upside target is the February-to-April resistance line at $1.105. Potential slips should find support around the 8 April low at $1.0837.

Key support remains to be seen at the mid-April trough at $1.0758, below which the April 2020 low can be made out at $1.0727 and the March 2020 low at $1.0638.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP’s bounce has reached the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8361

EUR/GBP bounce off last week’s £0.825 low has gained traction after yesterday’s French election TV debate between the remaining two candidates, the incumbent President Macron and his right-wing rival Marine Le Pen, is not deemed to have dented the former’s better standings in the polls.

Above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8361, which is currently being probed, lies the 11 April high at £0.838, a rise above which would change the short-term outlook back to being bullish.

Minor support can be found at the 28 March low at £0.8322 and also at the 8 April low at £0.8308 today. Further potential support can be seen at the 23 March £0.8296 low.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD struggles along the two-month downtrend line at $1.3082

The recovery in GBP/USD from Tuesday’s low at $1.2981 seems to have been short-lived with it failing along the two-month downtrend line at $1.3082 despite US Dollar weakness being witnessed across the board as US Treasury yields are falling back from their recent peaks.

Strong support remains to be seen between the March and current April lows at $1.3001 to $1.2973 whereas resistance above today’s intraday high at $1.3082 can be found at last week’s $1.3147 top. While the $1.3147 to $1.3182 late March and current April highs aren’t bettered, a downtrend remains in place.

Failure at $1.2973 would lead to the $1.2855 to $1.2813 area being targeted. It contains the June 2020 high and November 2020 low.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD drops to multi-year support as US Dollar Index and AUD/USD rally

EUR/USD nears multi-year support as US Dollar Index holds recent gains ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, while AUD/USD ends rout as RBA hikes rates by more-than-expected 25 basis points.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 May 2022 

AUD/USD rout halted by surprise RBA rate hike to 0.35%

AUD/USD’s swift descent by over 8% from its $0.7661 early April high to Monday’s low at $0.7030 has been halted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising the cash rate by a larger than expected 25 basis points to 0.35% during its May meeting.

This was the first rate hike since November 2010 with the central bank hinting at further tightening to come as it seeks to tame surging inflation.

The currency pair thus regained more than 1% in value and so far intraday bounced back to $0.7147, close to the $0.7166 March low and the 29 April high at $0.7179, both of which should offer resistance today.

If overcome, the 10 February high and 8 March low at $0.7245 to $0.7248 would be in view. Only a currently unexpected slip through Monday’s low at $0.7030 would engage the January trough at $0.6968.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

EUR/USD slips back towards key multi-year support

EUR/USD dropped by 15% from its 2021 pandemic peak to $1.0472, a level last seen in January 2017, with the decline accelerating amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its halting of gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria last week.

This week the cross is expected to probe multi-year key support which can be spotted between the March 2015, December 2016, and January 2017 lows at $1.0463 to $1.0341. We expect this major support zone to hold, though. If not, the major psychological $1.0000 mark, or parity, would be in focus.

Minor resistance above the 29 April high at $1.0593 comes in at the March 2020 low at $1.0638 with further resistance being seen between the 14 and 19 April highs at $1.0758 to $1.0761. Further up sits the March low at $1.0806.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

US Dollar Index set to revisit 2017 and 2020 highs

The US Dollar Index’s (DXY) parabolic rise, amid soaring inflation, heightened geopolitical tensions, growth concerns and worries about the impact further lockdowns in China and a weak yuan may have on the world economy, pushed it to the January 2017 and March 2020 pandemic peaks at 103.80 to 103.82 which capped in late April.

This week the 2017 and 2020 highs are expected to give way with the July 2002 low at 104.12 being eyed next. Further up sits the 104.60 July 1999 high.

After four consecutive strong weekly gains of around 5%, and 15% compared to a year ago, there is no support to speak of below the 29 April low at 102.70 until the higher weekly uptrend channel line at 101.25 and last week’s high at 101.45, the May 2020 high at 100.60 and the psychological 100.00 mark, all of which are unlikely to be revisited anytime soon.

DXY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY in tight ranges ahead of Fed decision

FX markets are calm as investors await the Fed decision, with significant volatility a possibility depending on the news.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 May 2022 

EUR/USD hovers above recent lows

The euro’s dive against the dollar has paused for now, as the currency pair awaits the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision tonight.

In recent weeks the rush into the US dollar has taken on new life, and as a result EUR/USD has been under firm pressure, dropping from near $1.12 at the end of March to stand nearer $1.05 by the beginning of May.

With the European Central Bank (ECB) discussion around rate hikes only just beginning to gain traction, it may be a little while before the next counter-trend move in EUR/USD, unless tonight offers up a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) that prompts some readjustment in the long dollar trade.

In the event of a bounce, which so far has seemed quite unlikely, the pair will target the $1.10 level, where a move higher in late April ran out of steam. But before this it must clamber above $1.0580, which has held back progress.

For now the pair shows little desire to break below $1.0480, but such a drop would bring the $1.0385 lows into view once again.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD edges below $1.25 again

It is going to be a busy and potentially volatile 36 hours for the pound and the dollar.

Today has a full docket of US data, including the monthly ADP employment report, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI and then, of course, the Fed decision.

Plus, there is much debate about the UK economy, as some former policymakers begin to call for a UK rate cut in order to help ease the burden on consumers squeezed by higher prices for essentials and the recent increase in National Insurance.

Similar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD is holding above recent lows, but has reversed course from its attempted bounce on Tuesday, and now seems to be headed lower. This would bring $1.2411 into play, the low from last week.

Meanwhile, any short-term bounce needs to clear $1.26 to open the way to a possible rebound towards $1.30.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY stalls ahead of FOMC decision

Unsurprisingly, dollar bulls have been reluctant to push their luck, after the huge rally here.

Today’s busy data docket for the US would keep most people on the side of caution anyway, but the Fed tonight provides scope for additional volatility.

If the Fed suggests that 75 basis point hikes are now possible then we should see further dollar strength, but any caution regarding the impact on the US economy would see the pair weaken.

Further gains in the medium-term continue to target the ¥135 level, last seen in 2001. Meanwhile, a retracement below ¥127 would spark expectations of a more substantial decline, that could see the pair head back towards ¥124.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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Euro, sterling and Aussie retreat against the dollar

The strong dollar is once again putting pressure on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 06 May 2022 

EUR/USD heads lower

EUR/USD has come under fresh pressure as the dollar strengthens once more. The dovish view of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision has been reversed and now markets are firmly convinced of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC’s) hawkishness.

As a result, we can expect additional downside here, with last week’s lows just above $1.04 likely to be tested, setting the stage for additional declines if this low is breached. Admittedly the price looks stretched to the downside, but even a rally back towards $1.09 leaves the downtrend firmly intact.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD slumps in wake of BoE meeting

The Bank of England (BoE) raised rates yesterday, and expect inflation to reach 10% by the end of the year, but their outlook on the UK economy was so gloomy that the pound fell once again. Indeed, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) might be close to pausing their hiking given the slashing of growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024.

The news sent the pound slumping against the dollar, pushing it back below $1.24 for the first time in two years. The area around $1.215 becomes the next big zone to watch for support. As with the euro versus the dollar, GBP/USD is in some sense ‘due’ for a rebound, which could carry it as far as $1.3, but for now the dollar is firmly in control here.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD reverses gains from RBA hike

The bounce that seemed so strong here with AUD/USD earlier in the week in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA’s) rate hike has now almost entirely disappeared. Like most other risk assets, yesterday the Aussie endured a dramatic pullback.

The week’s lows at $0.704 now come into view, and then below this the big zone of support on AUD/USD around $0.7 comes into view. This area has held since the final months of 2020, so a drop below here reinforces the bearish view significantly. For a more bullish view to emerge the price needs to recover $0.72.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD under more pressure while USD/JPY tops ¥131

Dollar strength has lifted USD/JPY, while causing more losses for EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 09 May 2022 

EUR/USD drops back to $1.05

EUR/USD remains unable to rally, with the gloomier global outlook not helping matters. But the real driver continues to be the yawning gap between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The former has not only begun its tightening efforts, but has sped them up, moving to raise rates by 50 basis points at its most recent meeting, having previously raised them by 25 bps.

The latter is still discussing the timing of the first move, although it may occur earlier than previously anticipated. As a result, EUR/USD has little reason to move higher, although a fresh move below the $1.05 level has yet to take place. After such a big drop over the past six weeks, a rebound would not be surprising, but it would leave the downtrend firmly in place.

 

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD falls further as UK outlook darkens

The pound remains firmly on the back foot against the US dollar with GBP/USD, falling to $1.23 and reaching a fresh two-year low against the dollar. While the Bank of England (BoE) did raise rates last week, it is very cautious on the outlook for the UK economy. As a result, it may well look to pause its hiking cycle in the medium term, even as inflation continues to hit the UK economy hard.

Further downside thus seems likely for GBP/USD, even in its current ‘oversold’ condition. $1.225 and then $1.208 become the next levels to watch in the short term. Like EUR/USD, the pair is stretched to the downside, so a rebound is possible, but it would require a move back above $1.263.

 

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY moves back above ¥131

Dollar strength continues to carry the pair higher, pushing on in its uptrend. The wide gulf between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Fed remains the key reason why the USD/JPY continues to see such impressive strength to the upside.

While the Fed has so far not officially intimated that it might look to boost rates by 75 bps, it remains a possibility. As such, the outlook for the pair seems to point towards additional upside, with a longer-term target towards ¥135.00. So far, there is still little sign of a reversal, although a drop below ¥129.00 would point towards the potential for such a move.

 

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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Losses for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD pause for now

The dollar’s run higher is pausing for now, but the overall bearish outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD remains firmly in place.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 10 May 2022

EUR/USD moves sideways

Consolidation appears to be the order of things here with EUR/USD, as the price looks to recover some of the ground lost in recent weeks. The sideways movement allows the price to work off some of its ‘oversold’ condition that has resulted from the sharp declines of recent months, and also allows the moving averages to play catch-up.

Overall the scene appears set for a short-term recovery, although that will depend mostly on the US dollar, which is being supported both by safe-haven moves as market volatility surges and by the expectation that some Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will begin fresh calls for 75 basis points (bps) rate hikes to fight inflation. Gains from here target $1.0637, and then towards $1.08 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). A move below the 2017 low at $1.034 would be a major development that would see the pair head to a 20-year low.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD edges off Monday’s lows

Monday saw a fresh two-year low for GBP/USD, but signs of stabilisation overnight have given some hope that a short-term rebound could be in play. The outlook for the UK economy remains grim however. A recession seems to be a definite possibility, as UK consumers remain squeezed by high inflation and by rate rises that have boosted borrowing costs.

This has put the Bank of England's (BoE’s) hiking policy into question, at least in the medium term. A short bounce might see the price recover $1.25 or even head back towards $1.27, but the downtrend would remain firmly intact. Further losses below $1.225 would see the price head towards $1.208.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD slips below $0.7

Weakness in commodity prices and the general risk-off environment has meant that AUD/USD has fallen sharply in recent days, falling below $0.7 for the first time since January. Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA’s) move to a hiking posture, the US dollar retains its pre-eminence, and while the debate over 50 vs 75 bps rate hikes appears to be over for now, it will likely reignite if this week’s and future consumer price index (CPI) figures remain strong.

Additional declines target $0.6828, and then on to $0.6671, while a recovery above $0.7 might suggest a short-term low is in place.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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NZD reaction as New Zealand set to reopen its borders

IGTV’s Daniela Sabin Hathorn looks at a few trades around the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD, GBP/NZD, and AUD/NZD) as the government will put an end to some of the world’s toughest COVID-19 travel restrictions on 31 July.

 

 

Daniela Sabin Hathorn | Presenter and Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 11 May 2022 

New Zealand to open borders

New Zealand will fully reopen its borders on July 31st, as announce by Prime Minister, Jacinda Arden, on Wednesday.

This brings the date forward by two months as the government’s timeline to lift all remaining COVID-19 restrictions takes place earlier than expected in hopes it will help revive economic activity.

Whilst the country's efforts to reduce the spread of the pandemic has been praised worldwide, it has put a big toll on some of its industries, including tourism, agriculture, and hospitality.

That being said, travellers will still need to go through pre-departure testing before arriving in New Zealand, which many believe will still be a barrier to entry for tourism.

The reaction in the New Zealand dollar has been slightly limited so far but with so many market themes in play at present it may take a while for the re-opening trade to settle in.

NZD/USD

Focusing first on NZD/USD, the pair is up three-quarters of a percent since the close on Tuesday, the first day momentum has opened on the bullish side since last Wednesday.

But considering the move last week was fully brought on by weakness in the USD side of the trade, today is the first daily candlestick to be holding in the green since the 20th of April. Its hard to tell how much of this move higher has been brought on by optimism in the NZD, especially considering the Dollar Index (DXY) is trending lower this morning, but its likely that some optimism has been priced into the kiwi, along with some dip-buying after a brutal month for the pair.

A close above yesterday’s high at 0,6348 would be needed to consider this price reversal more sustainable.

GBP/NZD

For GBP/NZD the story has been a little different.

The pair hasn’t moved in a clear direction as we’ve seen with NZD/USD, with both the NZD and GBP side of the trade showing weakness in recent weeks.

The kiwi is strongly linked to commodity prices which has meant a rather volatile environment for the currency for the last two months, but the lack of a decisive move in the pound, like we’ve seen with USD, has meant GBP/NZD has trended upward since the April 5th lows, but the move hasn’t been homogeneous.

The daily chart shows the pair has seen some strong daily rallies in three occasions since then, but the initial bullish strength lacked momentum in its continuation, leaving it exposed to correction in both the moves higher so far.

Monday’s bullish run failed to reach the ascending trendline resistance the other two daily rallies faced, which means there was already a lack of conviction from buyers to continue propping up its price.

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Risk off moves push down EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY

Declines continue across major FX pairs, as the risk-off atmosphere continues to build.

AUDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 12 May 2022 

EUR/USD continues to decline

Yesterday’s US consumer price index (CPI) reading might have marked the first month-on-month (MoM) slowing of price growth in almost a year with EUR/USD, but the overall strength in the US dollar remains firmly in place. After holding above $1.05 for most of the past two weeks, a bearish move with the drop below $1.05 puts the price on a fresh move to the downside, creating a lower low.

In the space of six weeks the price has fallen from $1.12 to $1.05, and now seems poised for fresh losses.

Given the size of the downward move in recent weeks any rebound must be viewed as short-term bounce that will merely create a lower high and solidify the current downtrend.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD losses build

The broader global risk-off move shows no sign of slowing down. This has had AUD/USD hard, as one of the currency pairs most attuned to global risk appetite.

In addition, the slowing of gains in commodity prices, itself a function of the stronger dollar, has not helped matters.

Additional declines would seem to point towards a test of $0.6828 and then $0.667. The recent drop below $0.70 confirms the bearish move, with the likelihood that even a bounce towards $0.71 would only provide a fresh selling opportunity.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY drops below $1.29

It looks like a short-term retracement could be at hand here with USD/JPY, as the price finally begins to move lower after mostly sideways action for the month so far.

This could develop into the first serious pullback in months here, and might see the ¥124.00 area tested, and result in the creation of the first higher low here since the beginning of the year.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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Risk-off moves push EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY lower

Continued caution among traders has put EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY on the back foot.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 13 May 2022 

EUR/USD slumps below $1.04

Further dollar strength comes with EUR/USD, as Jerome Powell restates his view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike rates by 50 basis points (bp) at its next two meetings, although he added it may do more. As a result the pair has seen further declines, dropping below $1.04. having already fallen below $1.05 this week. The lurch lower this week puts new strength into the downtrend, which has been running for over a year.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD hovers around $1.22

GBP/USD has dropped below $1.24 and $1.23 over the past week, and overnight it tested $1.22. As with EUR/USD, the comments made by the Fed chair regarding further tightening have put new strength into the US dollar, and suggest that we will see additional downside here. This move lower puts $1.208 into view, a level not seen since May 2020. As with EUR/USD, there is little sign of a any meaningful bounce developing.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY retracement gathers pace

Yesterday’s fall in USD/JPY may mark the beginning of a bigger drop, which may open the way to ¥127.00 or even the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥124.49. The broader rebound in risk appetite overnight does not appear to be reflected in this pair, which may point towards the transitory nature of any bounce in stocks.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD attack resistance, EUR/GBP drops to 200-day simple moving average

EUR/USD and GBP/USD probe minor resistance while EUR/GBP drops to the 200-day simple moving average around which it may stabilize ahead of UK April inflation and retail sales data.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 17 May 2022 

EUR/USD nears one-month resistance line

EUR/USD’s bounce off last week’s low at $1.035 amid worries of a looming recession and diverging monetary policies between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is approaching the April low and one-month resistance line at $1.0471 to $1.0473 ahead of today’s US April retail sales and industrial production data releases.

Minor resistance above this zone is seen at Thursday’s $1.0529 high.

The long-term downtrend will remain firmly in place, though, as long as the next higher early May high at $1.0642 isn’t bettered. The $1.035 to $1.0341 January 2017 and last week’s lows are thus expected to be revisited and to then to give way with the major psychological $1.0 mark, or parity, being in focus.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP weighs on the 200-day simple moving average ahead of UK inflation data

EUR/GBP’s bearish reversal off last week’s £0.8618 high has taken it back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8446, ahead of this week’s UK consumer price index and retail sales data, out tomorrow and on Friday respectively. Around it and the one-month uptrend line at £0.8442 the cross may stabilise today.

Should this not be the case, we would have to allow for the 55-day SMA at £0.839 to be reached, together with the early May low at £0.8368.

Only a bullish reversal and rise above today’s high at £0.8475 would put the £0.85 region and the late March high at £0.8512 back on the map. While the next higher high from yesterday at £0.8534 isn’t bettered, however, downside pressure should prevail.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD’s relief rally has further to run ahead of UK data

The slide in the GBP/USD seems to have ended at last week’s $1.2156 low ahead of this week’s April UK consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales data which are due to be published tomorrow and on Friday respectively.

The cross is in the process of heaving itself back up to its April low at $1.2412 as UK April unemployment data comes in lower than expected at 3.7% versus an expected 3.8% as was the case in the previous month. The March claimant count has been revised from -46.9k to -81.6k with the April count change coming in at -56.6k. Above the $1.2412 level beckons the minor psychological $1.25 mark.

As long as the next higher $1.2638 early May high isn’t exceeded, the long-term downtrend in the currency pair remains in play with the minor psychological $1.20 region representing a possible downside target zone.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall back while USD/JPY holds steady

After making headway earlier in the week, EUR/USD and GBP/USD have dropped back in opening trading.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 18 May 2022

EUR/USD bounce stalls

The broader rebound in global risk appetite carried EUR/USD back above $1.04 over the past three sessions and then pushed it on above $1.05. However, the bounce has run into some selling already, as the US dollar begins to strengthen once again. Comments from Dutch European Central Bank (ECB) member Klaas Knot lifted the pair as he suggested that the bank might look to boost rates by more than 25 basis points (bp) at upcoming meetings.

As a result, the pair looks for additional upside, although within the broader context of the steady downtrend that has been in place for over a year. Further gains target $1.0637, the highs of early May, and then on towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0796.

A fresh turn to the downside brings the lows of the month into play, around $1.036, and would also revive the downtrend, suggesting a further push towards parity for the pair.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD drops back following CPI data

Despite the highest level of consumer price index (CPI) in forty years, the pound has fallen back, surrendering some of the gains made yesterday when GBP/USD rebounded and recovered $1.24.

The overall outlook for the UK economy remains gloomy, and while the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep raising rates at its upcoming meetings, a pause is likely further down the line as the bank assesses the impact on the UK economy.

If the move lower in early trading is not reversed, then a move back towards $1.22 comes into view, and then on below the mid-month lows, as the downtrend continues. Alternatively, if the price can move above $1.25 then a push towards $1.2635 comes into view.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY edges higher

The dollar remains relatively muted against the yen in USD/JPY, after it edged higher over the previous three sessions. Gains have slowed since mid-April, despite the ongoing push by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep raising rates, as policymakers rein in the idea that a 75 bp rise is possible.

Short-term, the price remains relatively bullish as it holds above ¥128.00, and could set it up for a move back towards ¥131.00, particularly if US economic data begins to strengthen anew.

A further move to the downside would result if the price is unable to hold above ¥128, and could see the price head back to the 50-day SMA.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD try to retain recent gains

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD defend their recent advances amid 40-year inflation in the UK and lowest monthly unemployment data on record in Australia.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 May 2022

EUR/USD tries to retain recent gains

EUR/USD is trying to retain its gains from last week’s $1.035 low amid its softest pace of growth in construction activity since December. Construction output in the Eurozone increased 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) in March, easing from a downwardly revised 8.9% rise in the previous month.

While yesterday’s low at $1.0461 isn’t being slipped through, yesterday’s high and the one-month resistance line at $1.0563 to $1.0604 may be revisited. The long-term downtrend will remain firmly in place, though, as long as the next higher early May high at $1.0642 isn’t overcome. 

A fall through and daily chart close below yesterday’s low at $1.0461 would put the early May and January 2017 lows at $1.035 to $1.0341 back on the plate.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP remains above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) post UK inflation data

EUR/GBP’s bullish reversal off Tuesday’s £0.8393 low has taken the cross back above the 200-day SMA at £0.8446, above which it has stayed as UK YoY inflation hit a 40-year high at 9% in April.

The 200-day SMA and yesterday’s low at £0.8434 are expected to act as support today, if retested. In case of failure, the 55-day SMA at £0.839 would be eyed, together with the early May low at £0.8368.

A rise above yesterday’s high at £0.8494 is needed for the late March high at £0.8512 to be back in focus. While Monday’s high at £0.8534 isn’t bettered, however, downside pressure should retain the upper hand.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD holds recent gains amid lowest unemployment rate on record in monthly survey

AUD/USD holds its recent gains and stays above yesterday’s $0.695 low as Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment data came in at 3.9% in April, its lowest level on record in the monthly survey, which was slightly above a lower figure seen in August 1974, when the survey was quarterly.

A rise above the 11 May and yesterday’s highs at $0.7046 to $0.7053 is needed, for the mid-to-late February lows and the two-month downtrend line at $0.7087 to $0.7119 to be in focus. If overcome, the March low at $0.7165 may be reached as well.

A drop through yesterday’s low at $0.695 would engage the 10 May low at $0.6911 below which the currency pair’s near two-year lows can be spotted at $0.6829. In case of it giving way, the June 2020 trough at $0.6777 would be next in line.

AUD/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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Where to next for GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP?

The pound sterling is trying to regain lost ground: technical outlook on GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP.

GBP/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 20 May 2022 

GBP attempts to regain lost ground

With a plethora of data out this week the pound sterling stemmed its recession fear-driven depreciation versus several currencies and has tried to regain lost ground.

Tuesday’s UK unemployment data, which edged down to 3.7% versus the previous month’s 3.8%, the lowest reading in nearly 50 years, initially boosted the pound. For the first time since records began, there are fewer unemployed people than job vacancies but real wage growth for regular pay was 1.9% lower than a year ago in March, the biggest fall since the third quarter (Q3) of 2013, as high inflationary pressures continue to hurt consumers' purchasing power.

Even though Wednesday’s release of UK annual inflation data for April, which came in at its highest reading in 40 years and is the highest among G7 countries at 9%, put a dampener on the pound, it managed to recover towards the end of the week amid unexpectedly strong UK retail sales data despite record low UK consumer confidence.

UK retail sales unexpectedly rose 1.4% month-on-month in April, rebounding from falls in the previous two months and beating forecasts of a 0.2% decline whereas the UK GfK Consumer Confidence indicator dropped to an all-time low of -40 in May, below the previous low of -39 set in July 2008, amid the cost of living crisis and increasing fears of a recession rearing its head.

GBP/USD’s relief rally has further to run following a plethora of UK data releases

The slide in the British pound versus the US dollar seems to have ended at last week’s $1.2156 low with the cross having tried all week to break through minor psychological resistance at the $1.25 mark. If it were to be exceeded on a daily chart closing basis, the $1.2638 early May high would be targeted.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

 

As long as the $1.2638 level isn’t exceeded, the long-term downtrend in the currency pair remains in play with the minor psychological $1.2000 region representing a possible downside target zone.

Were a rise above the $1.2638 early May high to take place, however, a more sustained bullish reversal would likely ensue with this year’s downtrend line and the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.2821 to $1.2854 representing probable upside targets.

GBP/JPY decline also looks to have ended at last week’s low

The slide in the British pound versus the Japanese yen seems to have ended at last week’s ¥155.61 low ahead of this week’s unemployment, CPI, and retail sales data releases.

From a technical point of view an Elliott Wave zig-zag correction, also called and A, B, C correction, may have ended at last week’s ¥155.61 trough, provided that no drop below it is being seen. If so, a continued advance should take the cross to above this week’s high at ¥161.85 and eventually exceed its April ¥168.43 peak.

GBP/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime

 

For this scenario to become more probable a rise and daily chart close above the wave ‘B’ high at ¥164.25 needs to ensue.

On the flipside, a drop through the current May trough at ¥155.61 would invalidate the bullish technical set-up and probably provoke a resumption of the recent descent towards the December-to-May uptrend line at ¥152.60.

EUR/GBP little changed despite lowest ever consumer confidence data

EUR/GBP’s bullish reversal off Tuesday’s candlestick “Hammer” low at £0.8393 has taken the cross above the 200-day SMA at £0.8446, above which it has stayed despite the UK GfK Consumer Confidence indicator hitting an all-time low of -40 in May, below the previous low of -39 set in July 2008, amid growing recession fears and the cost of living crisis.

EUR/GBP chartSource: ProRealTime

 

The 200-day SMA and yesterday’s low at £0.8448 to £0.8446 are expected to act as support, if revisited at all. In case of failure, the 55-day SMA at £0.8401 would be back in sight, together with the early May low at £0.8368.

A rise above this week’s high at £0.8495 would put the late March high at £0.8512 back on the map. While Monday’s high at £0.8534 isn’t bettered, however, overall downside pressure remains in play.

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EUR/USD and AUD/USD continue to rise while EUR/GBP struggles

EUR/USD and AUD/USD continue last week’s advances as the US Dollar weakens while EUR/GBP looks subdued.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 23 May 2022

EUR/USD nears its early May high

EUR/USD’s advance from its mid-May $1.035 low is in the process of breaking through its two-month downtrend line at $1.0571 and is getting ever closer to the early May high at $1.0642, ahead of Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence and first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) releases on Wednesday.

The cross also rallied amid comments from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, essentially pre-committing to a 25 basis point (bp) hike in July and September. A rise and daily chart close above the recent high at $1.0642 would confirm at least an interim bottoming formation with the mid-April low at $1.0758 being targeted in this scenario. Another potential upside target is seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0791, near the 2022 downtrend line at $1.0855.

Minor support below Friday’s $1.0533 low can be seen between the April and 6 May lows at $1.0483 to $1.0472. Provided this area underpins, the odds favour a continued advance, at least in the course of this week.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP flirts with the 200-day SMA

EUR/GBP is seen sliding back towards its two-month support line at £0.8419, ahead of Tuesday’s UK manufacturing and services PMI for May.

Below the support line meanders the 55-day SMA at £0.8403 and sits last week’s low at £0.8393 which, together with the early May low at £0.8368, is key for the currency pair’s uptrend. If slipped through, the technical picture would become bearish again.

For now, further sideways trading around the 200-day SMA at £0.8445 seems to be on the cards. Last week’s high at £0.8495 needs to be exceeded, for the late March high at £0.8512 to be back in focus. Further up sits last Monday’s high at £0.8534.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD continues to rise post Australia’s Labor party election victory

AUD/USD continues to advance and is currently piercing through its two-month downtrend line at $0.7086 following Anthony Albanese’s victory in Australia’s elections. He will form the first Labor government in almost a decade and is only the fourth Labor leader since World War Two.

Ahead of Australian manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data the cross looks bid and is approaching its March low at $0.7166. Support below the early May low and 11 May high at $0.7053 to $0.7031 comes in along the one-month support line at $0.7008.

Only a currently unexpected drop through last Wednesday’s low at $0.695 would engage the 10 May low at $0.6911 below which the currency pair’s near two-year low can be spotted at $0.6829. In case of it giving way, the June 2020 trough at $0.6777 would be next in line.

AUD/USDSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP rise as USD/JPY weighs on support

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP benefit from a stronger Euro amid hawkish comments from the ECB’s President Lagarde while USD/JPY slips towards key support.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 May 2022 

EUR/USD trades in one-month highs

EUR/USD’s advance from its mid-May $1.035 low has taken it to above its two-month downtrend line at $1.0555 and the early May high at $1.0642, following comments by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde in which she essentially pre-committed to a 25 basis point (bp) hike in July and September.

An interim bottoming formation has thus been confirmed with the mid-April low at $1.0758 now being eyed. Another potential upside target is seen along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0788, near the 2022 downtrend line at $1.0849.

Minor support below last week’s high at $1.0607 is seen along the two-week support line at $1.0555 and at Friday’s $1.0533 low. Further minor support sits between the April and 6 May lows at $1.0483 to $1.0472.

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EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP recovers from the 200-day simple moving average

EUR/GBP managed to stabilise above its two-month support line at £0.8425, ahead of Tuesday’s French, German and UK manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) releases for May.

The cross thus managed to recover from around the 200-day SMA at £0.8445 and is trading close to this week’s high at $0.8504. This level needs to be bettered for the late March high at £0.8512 to be back in focus. Further up lurks last Monday’s high at £0.8534.

Below the two-month support line the 55-day SMA can be found at £0.8407 and last week’s low at £0.8393 which, together with the early May low at £0.8368, remains key for the currency pair’s uptrend. If slipped through, the technical picture would become bearish again.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY trades close to 4-week lows as Japan manufacturing growth eases to 3-month low

USD/JPY is trading at levels last seen at the end of April, close to its late April ¥126.95 low, as Japan’s manufacturing PMI declined to a 3-month low at 53.2 in May amid supply chain disruptions due to the war in Ukraine versus a revised 53.5 a month earlier.

This comes after Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) in April last week, the most since October 2014, following a 1.2% gain in March. The April figure also marked the 8th straight month of annual inflation, with food prices rising at the fastest pace in 7 years. Failure at the late April ¥126.95 low on a daily chart closing basis would confirm a topping pattern with a slip back towards the March peak and 55-day SMA at ¥125.31 to ¥124.87 expected to unfold in this scenario.

Minor resistance remains to be seen at the 22 April high at ¥129.11 and also at the mid-April and mid-May highs at ¥129.40 to ¥129.78. This resistance area would need to be overcome for the uptrend to resume.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD bounces stall, while USD/JPY retracement pauses

The counter-trend bounces in EUR/USD and GBP/USD have stalled as the dollar strengthens, while the pullback in USD/JPY has returned to the 50-day SMA.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 25 May 2022 

EUR/USD bolstered by rate hike expectations

The European Central Bank (ECB) is a new convert to the world of higher rates, having held back due to the weakness of the eurozone economy. But comments this week from the ECB president suggested that a much faster pace of tightening would be the case. After falling sharply in recent months, the news was enough to push EUR/USD higher, hitting a one-month high as investors scrambled to move back into the euro.

The bounce has carried it back towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the biggest bounce since the end of February. This could create a lower high, and reinforce the downward move, potentially bringing $1.04 and lower into play. Further gains target $1.08 and then $1.089.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD stalls below $1.26

The weakening dollar has given GBP/USD space to bounce, and since mid-month the pair has been able to move back towards the early May highs at $1.26. But a weaker set of purchasing manager index (PMIs) yesterday meant that the pound ran into some selling pressure, and as a result, the pair has been unable to maintain upward progress, and is now at risk of turning lower.

Fresh declines would bring the May low back into view, down towards $1.22 and potentially lower, with $1.208 the next big level to watch.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY retracement continues

The USD/JPY drop towards the 50-day SMA has continued, marking the most significant decline for the pair in months. A recovery above ¥128.00 would mark a more bullish development and could see a fresh move higher, targeting ¥131.00.

As yet the dollar has not begun to strengthen, but with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on the calendar for today a possible bounce for the greenback is in play if the minutes reveal a continued hawkish caucus on the committee calling for 75 basis points (bps) rises at upcoming meetings

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY drop post FOMC minutes

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/JPY slip post US 50 basis point rate hike.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 May 2022

EUR/USD consolidates below its one-month highs

EUR/USD’s advance from its mid-May $1.035 low has taken it to a one-month high at $1.0748, below which the cross has been consolidating since yesterday after the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and 50 basis point (bp) rate hike in the Federal Reserve (Fed) funds rate range to 0.75%-1%.

While yesterday’s low at $1.0643 underpins, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0777 as well as the 2022 downtrend line at $1.083 remain in sight.

Minor support below yesterday’s low at $1.0643 is seen along the two-week support line at $1.0608 and at Friday’s $1.0533 low. Further minor support sits between the April and 6 May lows at $1.0483 to $1.0472.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP slips back towards the 200-day simple moving average

Earlier this week EUR/GBP faltered at £0.8587, not far below the £0.8618 mid-May peak, before it rapidly came off again as German GfK consumer confidence data for June came in at a worse than expected -26.0 compared to a revised -26.6 record low in May.

A slide back towards the 200-day SMA and two-month support line at £0.8445 to £0.8438 may soon unfold, if Tuesday’s low at £0.848 were to be slipped through. Any intraday bounce is expected to run out of steam around the 16 May high at £0.8534.

Below the two-month support line the 55-day SMA can be found at £0.8407 and last week’s low at £0.8393 which, together with the early-May low at £0.8368, remains key for the currency pair’s uptrend. If slipped through, the technical picture would become bearish again.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY slips through key support

USD/JPY is once more falling through its late-April ¥126.95 low, having already briefly done so on Tuesday before stabilising, following the publication of the FOMC minutes and 50 bp rate hike to 0.75%-1% by the US Fed and comments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in which he said that the central bank can execute a smooth exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy.

This comes after Japan’s consumer prices rose by 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) in April, marking the 8th straight month of annual inflation, with food prices rising at the fastest pace in seven years. Failure at the late April ¥126.95 low, and ideally also at this week’s low at ¥126.37, on a daily chart closing basis would confirm a topping pattern with a slip back towards the 55-day SMA and March peak at ¥125.70 to ¥125.10 likely to ensue in this scenario.

Minor resistance remains to be found at the 22 April high at ¥129.11 and also at the mid-April and mid-May highs at ¥129.40 to ¥129.78. This resistance area would need to be overcome for the March-to-May uptrend to resume.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP remain bid while greenback nears support

EUR/USD continues to appreciate as US Dollar Index trades in one-month lows, EUR/GBP side-lined.

 

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 30 May 2022 

EUR/USD struggles around the 55-day simple moving average

EUR/USD’s near 4% rally from its mid-May $1.035 low has so far taken it to a one-month high at $1.077 as US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price inflation continues to slow down. The cross seems to be struggling around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.077 as US markets are shut due to Memorial Day with quiet trading expected to be seen in currency markets today.

With the Federal Reserve (Fed) considering a pause in its rate rises after its July meeting to assess the impact of its policy tightening, the cross may continue to gradually advance towards the March low and February-to-May downtrend line at $1.0806 to $1.0816 which is likely to cap.

If not, the late-April high at $1.0936 would be next in line. Minor support continues to be seen between the three-week support line and last Wednesday’s low at $1.0668 to $1.0643.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to oscillate around the £0.85 mark

EUR/GBP faltered at £0.8587, last week, marginally below the £0.8618 mid-May peak, before it rapidly came off following record low German GfK consumer confidence data. Last week’s low at £0.848 held throughout the week, though, with the cross heading back up again today, following a long Ascension Day holiday weekend in Catholic Europe.

The 16 May high at £0.8534 is back in the picture, a rise above which would lead to the £0.8587 to £0.8618 resistance area being revisited.

Support below the recent £0.8480 low can be found between the two-month support line and the 200-day SMA at £0.845 to £0.8445.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

US Dollar Index nears the 55-day simple moving average

The US Dollar Index’s (DXY) swift two-week decline from its $104.91 mid-May high is losing downside momentum slightly above the 55-day SMA at $101.01 and the late-April high at $100.92 as investors are becoming increasingly hopeful that the Fed might not raise rates as aggressively as previously anticipated.

The $101.01 to $100.92 region is expected to offer support this curtailed week with the US enjoying a long weekend due to its Memorial Day holiday. Further down lies strong support in the $99.7 to $99.46 region, consisting of the March high, mid- and 21 April lows.

Minor resistance above the two-week downtrend channel resistance line at $101.81 comes in between the 5 May low and 25 May high at $102.25 to $102.29. Only a rise above this minor resistance area would indicate that the previous uptrend has resumed.

DXY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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