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EUR/USD and EUR/GBP mixed while USD/JPY tries to stabilise after sharp drop

EUR/USD and EUR/GBP range trade while USD/JPY tries to hold above last week’s low following the BOJ’s decision to hold rates steady.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 25 July 2022 

EUR/USD holds above parity ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting

EUR/USD continues to oscillate around the $1.02 mark as traders await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday which is to shed more light on its tightening path.

Support can be spotted between the mid-August high and Friday’s low at $1.013 to $1.0122 and resistance at last week’s $1.0278 high. Much more significant resistance can be found in the $1.034 to $1.036 zone which consists of the December 2016 and January 2017 as well as the May and June 2022 lows.

Were a renewed descent to take the cross below $1.0122, parity would be back in play. Below it the current July trough sits at $0.9952. Failure there would engage the $0.9698 to $0.9593 support area which is comprised of the June 2000 and February 2001 highs and the September 2002 low.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to trade in the £0.85 region

EUR/GBP trades back around the £0.85 level, having last week briefly shot up to £0.8584 before coming off again on UK Gfk consumer confidence and retail sales data.

Slips may find support around the £0.8486 early June and Friday’s lows. Minor resistance above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8535 is seen at the 20 July high at £0.8513 with further sitting between the 24 and 30 June lows at £0.8551 to £0.8561. Further up sit the late May and early June highs as well as last week’s high at £0.8584 to £0.8592.

Below Friday’s low at £0.8486 meanders the 200-day SMA at £0.8444 which is likely to act as support, if retested.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/JPY trades in two-week lows

Last week USD/JPY tried to rise back towards its 24-year early July high at ¥139.39 but ran out of steam at ¥138.87 as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stuck to its guns and left interest rates unchanged despite Japan's inflation staying above the BOJ's target for the third straight month.

The cross then slipped all the way back to ¥135.57 on Friday, a two-week low, above which it is hovering on Monday. Good support below it can be found between the 23 June and early July lows at ¥134.96 to ¥134.30.

Short-term bounces may encounter resistance at the June peak at ¥137, above which the 11 July high and 19 July low can be spotted at ¥137.39 to ¥137.75.

USD/JPY chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD little changed while EUR/GBP slips and AUD/USD probes downtrend

EUR/USD holds despite Russia reducing gas supply, EUR/GBP slides and AUD/USD tries to break through its April-to-July downtrend line.

AUDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 26 July 2022 

EUR/USD holds despite Russia cutting Nord Stream 1 gas supply to 20%

EUR/USD continues to oscillate around the $1.02 mark as Russia tightened its gas squeeze on Europe on Monday by reducing the supply of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% and as traders await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday which is to shed more light on its tightening path.

Support can be seen between the mid-August high and Friday’s low at $1.013 to $1.0122 and resistance at last week’s $1.0278 high. More significant resistance can be found in the $1.034 to $1.036 zone which consists of the December 2016 and January 2017 as well as the May and June 2022 lows.

Were a renewed descent to take the cross below $1.0122, parity would be back in focus. Below it the current July trough lies at $0.9952. Failure there would engage the $0.9698 to $0.9593 support area which is comprised of the June 2000 and February 2001 highs and the September 2002 low.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to slide

EUR/GBP continues to come off last week’s high at £0.8584 as Russia reduced the supply of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% on Monday and German recession fears increased as German business confidence has fallen to a two-year low.

Below Friday’s low at £0.8486 the 18 July low can be spotted at £0.8458 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8445 which is likely to act as support, if retested.

Minor resistance now sits at the 15 July high at £0.8513 and along the 55-day SMA at £0.8533 as well as between the 24 and 30 June lows at £0.8551 to £0.8561. Further up sit the late May and early June highs as well as last week’s high at £0.8584 to £0.8592.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD tries to break through its downtrend line

AUD/USD’s rally from its $0.6682 mid-July low has twice taken it to its April-to-July downtrend line, once last week and again earlier on Tuesday, on the back of rising oil prices.

A daily chart close above Tuesday’s intraday high at $0.6983 is needed, for a trendline break to be validated and for the mid-June high at $0.7069 to be back in the frame.

While the downtrend line caps, however, a risk remains of a slip back towards the two-week support line at $0.6906 to be revisited.

AUD/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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Hey, what do y’all think of this price prediction for DGB? Where did they pull them out of? I’m seeing some activity in DGB recently, but idk. 6400% is a bit (lol) on an optimistic side. Is its potential not exhausted yet?

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY in focus ahead of the Fed

The Fed look set to provide direction for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, with the dollar strength story having faded of late.

EuroSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 27 July 2022 

EUR/USD starts to roll over after recent consolidation

EUR/USD has been on the back foot over the course of the past 24-hours, with price falling back into a one-week low. The wider trend always highlighted the potential for a bearish reversal before long, and there is a chance that we are seeing that downtrend come back into play here.

A push up through the recent high of 1.0278 would signal a wider upward retracement coming into play. However, until that happens it looks likely that we will see the bears dominate as we move forward.

Pay close attention to the forthcoming Federal Open Market Commitee (FOMC) meeting, with the size of the hike and the outlook over growth and inflation likely to drive significant volatility for the US dollar.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD grinds higher ahead of the Fed

GBP/USD has been moving gradually higher over the course of the past week, with price rising into a fresh three-week high yesterday.

There is a good chance that we do see further upside, with price having only managed to regain 50% of the original 1.2406-1.176 decline, that points towards upside targets at 1.2159 and 1.2254.

However, while we could see further short-term upside, the wider trend does highlight the potential for a bearish turn before long. As such, a break back below 1.189 level would bring a more bearish picture into play for a decline through 1.176.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY regaining ground into Fed meeting

USD/JPY has enjoyed a positive week thus far, with price regaining ground after a sharp decline into a confluence of trendline and a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) support.

With the stochastic rolling over from overbought territory, there is a distinct chance that we see some short-term weakness come back into play before long.

However, a break back below the 135.32 level would be required to bring about expectations of a wider reversal for the pair. Until then, the recent bullish trend does still remain intact, singalling the potential for a continuation of this recent move higher even if we do see a short-term pullback.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and AUD/USD rally while EUR/GBP drops on fifth consecutive day

EUR/USD and AUD/USD rally on Fed 75bps rate hike but EUR/GBP slides to four-month low

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 28 July 2022 

EUR/USD recovers as Fed raises rates by 75bps

EUR/USD trades back around the $1.02 mark, having recovered from Wednesday’s $1.0097 low after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) fourth consecutive rate hike by 75 basis points (bps) and as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases depending on the inflationary and economic outlook.

Resistance for the cross sits between Monday’s and last week’s high at $1.0258 to $1.0278 and minor support between the mid-August high and Friday’s low at $1.013 to $1.0122 as well as at Wednesday’s $1.0097 trough.

Significant resistance above $1.0278 can be found in the $1.034 to $1.036 zone, which consists of the December 2016 and January 2017 as well as the May and June 2022 lows. Were a renewed descent to take the cross below $1.0097, parity would be back in focus. Below it, the current July trough lies at $0.9952. Failure there would engage the $0.9698 to $0.9593 support area, which is comprised of the June 2000 and February 2001 highs and the September 2002 low.

 

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP trades in near four-month lows

EUR/GBP continues to swiftly come off last week’s high at £0.8584 as Russia reduced the gas supply through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% and German recession fears increased as German Gfk consumer confidence fell to an all-time low.

The currency pair is dropping for its fifth consecutive day and is fast approaching the May low at £0.8367, a drop through which could lead to the February and late March lows at £0.8307 to £0.8296 being revisited.

Minor resistance above the £0.8403 mid-July low can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8444. While remaining below it, the cross is considered to be bearish.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD has broken through its downtrend line and eyes $0.7069

AUD/USD's rally from its $0.6682 mid-July low has twice taken it to its April-to-July downtrend line, once last week and again earlier on Tuesday on the back of rising oil prices, but twice failed to break through it before successfully doing so on Wednesday after the Fed’s 75bps rate hike.

Disappointing Australian retail sales, which showed the slowest rate of sales growth since January at 0.2% in June versus 0.9% in May, have slowed the rate of ascent in the currency pair. Nonetheless, the trendline break has been validated with the mid-June high at $0.7069 being targeted.

Slips should find support between the breached downtrend line and the two-week support line at $0.6939.

AUS/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY see countertrend moves on dollar weakness

The dollar has been on the back foot over the post-FOMC period, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY enjoying counter-trend moves as a result.

JPYSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 29 July 2022 

EUR/USD regains ground, but remain within consolidation zone

EUR/USD has been on the rise as the dollar loses traction towards the back end of the week. The latest Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting brought some hope that we could see the rate of hikes slow, which in turn took some steam out of the dollar. Whether that will continue remains to be seen.

For now, we are seeing the price rise towards the top end of the recent consolidation phase, with a rise up through the $1.0278 required to signal a potential impending leg higher coming into play. However, with 200 simple moving average (SMA) and trendline resistance up ahead, the wider downtrend is likely to kick in once again at some point. A break through the $1.0615 swing-high would be required to bring an end to that wider bearish trend.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD rises into 76.4% resistance level

GBP/USD has been outperforming over the course of the week, with price managing to push back into a fresh six-week high this morning. While that will embolden many, it is worth noting that the wider bearish trend does remain play. With the price having pushed into the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level, there is a chance we start to see the bears come back into play from these levels.

As such, a move back below $1.2103 or above $1.2254 would bring about a better idea of where we go from here. However, even if we do see a push through $1.2254, the wider bearish trend remains in play unless price breaks the $1.2406 swing-high.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY tumbles through support to bring wider retracement into play

USD/JPY has similarly seen dollar weakness playing out over the course of the week, with the price breaking back below the ¥134.74 support level. The subsequent capitulation in price has brought about a move towards the confluence of 61.8% Fibonacci and horizontal support around ¥131.49.

This highlights how a wider bullish trend should kick in once again before long. With that in mind, watch out for potential support around the 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci levels within this current selloff.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and AUD/USD remain bid while EUR/GBP stabilises

EUR/USD remains bullish despite weak German retail sales, AUD/USD bid while EUR/GBP stabilises.

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 01 August 2022 

EUR/USD has a bullish bias despite weak German retail sales

EUR/USD trades back around the $1.02 mark, having recovered from last week’s $1.0097 low after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) fourth consecutive rate hike by 75 basis points (bps) and as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases depending on the inflationary and economic outlook.

The cross remains short-term bid despite German retail sales slipping to 1.6% month-on-month (MoM) in June versus a revised 1.2% in May and compared to a market forecast of an 0.2% increase. Resistance for the currency pair sits between the late July highs at $1.0258 to $1.0278 and minor support between the one-month uptrend line and last week’s low at $1.0147 to $1.0097. Significant resistance above $1.0278 can be found in the $1.034 to $1.036 zone which consists of the December 2016 and January 2017 as well as the May and June 2022 lows.

Were a currently unexpected descent to take the cross below $1.0097, parity would be back in focus. Below it the July trough lies at $0.9952. Failure there would engage the $0.9698 to $0.9593 support area which is comprised of the June 2000 and February 2001 highs and the September 2002 low.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP tries to stabilise above four-month lows

EUR/GBP tries to stabilise above last week’s low at £0.8346, having slipped to it as Gazprom reduced the gas supply through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% and German recession fears increased amid German Gfk consumer confidence which dropped to an all-time low.

Minor resistance above the £0.8403 to £0.8415 mid-July low and Friday’s high can be seen along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8443. While remaining below it, the cross is considered to be bearish.

Slips should find interim support around the May low at £0.8367, a drop through which engage last week’s trough at £0.8346. Below it lie the February and late March lows at £0.8307 to £0.8296.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

AUD/USD targets $0.7069 mid-June high

AUD/USD's rally from its $0.6682 mid-July low retested its breached April-to-July downtrend line on Friday but closed above it on a weekly chart basis which points to further upside being in the works, despite disappointing Australian retail sales (published last week), which showed the slowest rate of sales growth since January at 0.2% in June versus 0.9% in May.

Since the trendline break has been validated, the mid-June high at $0.7069 is considered to be the next upside target, a rise above which could lead to the May and June highs at $0.7266 to $0.7283 being reached over the coming weeks and months.

Minor support is seen along the one-month support line, the breached downtrend line and Friday’s low at $0.6932 to $0.6911.

AUD/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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AUD/USD slumps and EUR/USD edges lower, while GBP/USD looks towards the next UK rate hike

The Aussie dollar is losing ground in the wake of a fresh RBA rate hike, while the euro and sterling are both giving back some gains against the US dollar.

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 August 2022 

EUR/USD edges back towards $1.22

The rebound continues here, with EUR/USD taking advantage of the US dollar’s short-term bout of weakness, and bolstered by the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to hike interest rates in July.

Further upside continues to target the $1.035 area that marked the lows in May and June, and denotes potential resistance as the pair rebounds for the time being. Above this level, we would watch the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $1.041, with trendline resistance from the late May-high potentially in play around $.1036.

Price action has yet to denote a reversal, but a drop below the $1.0146 low from last Friday would provide a possible start to a move lower, which would then put parity and $0.9953 into view.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD still climbing ahead of BoE meeting

Given that the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to deliver a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike this week, the strength of is not surprising, with GBP/USD. Only once the statement and press conference are done will we have a better sense of whether the macro outlook supports further gains for the pair.

Having recovered the 50-day SMA, the price now targets $1.2366, the mid-June high, and then on towards the late May-highs around $1.2635. If it can exceed this lower high then evidence of a reversal in trend would begin to build.

As with EUR/USD, the price has yet to begin a reversal, though a drop back below $1.209 would suggest that a fresh decline could be underway, heading in the first instance towards the July-low at $1.176.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD slumps despite RBA rate hike

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) move to tighten policy by 50 bps has pushed interest rates to their highest level in six years. But this has done little for AUD/USD, which has begun to move lower in a textbook example of ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’.

This comes in the wake of a rally for the pair since the July-low. The price briefly moved above $0.70 yesterday, but the reversal here could now be in play. If this marks a reassertion of the downward move, the lows from July down at $0.6747 come into play once again.

A revived bullish view requires a move back above $0.70, to then target the 16 June-high at $0.7069.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD head lower, but will recent bullish trend return?

The dollar comes back into favour as risk-off sentiment drives EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD lower.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 August 2022 

EUR/USD seeks to stabilise after trendline decline

EUR/USD has been hit hard over the course of the past 24-hours, with fears around Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan bringing some haven demand back into play for the dollar. The recent gains for EUR/USD had brought the price back into trendline resistance, which roughly correlates with the location of the 200-simple moving average (SMA) indicator.

With that in mind, there is a good chance we see the price roll over in the direction of the wider trend here. With the stochastic reversing upwards from oversold, there is still a chance we rebound here though.

As such, it makes sense to watch for a break below the $1.0096 level before looking for bearish positions. Until then, there is still a chance we see the bulls come back into play to push the price towards trendline resistance once more.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD falls back into trendline support

GBP/USD has drifted lower over the start of this week, despite the intraday uptrend playing out over the course of the past three-weeks.

The recent turnaround from the 76.4% resistance region highlights how we also have a wider bearish trend worth considering, with a push up through $1.2406 required to negate that negative pattern. Until that takes place, it makes sense to look out for a continuation of this bullish trend unless we are shown otherwise.

With that in mind, this trendline is expected to bring another bullish phase here, with a decline through $1.2063 required to bring about a fresh bearish outlook.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD breaks down through key support level

AUD/USD has been hit hard this week, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision doing little to bolster the Australian dollar.

Crucially, we have seen the price decline through key $0.6911 support overnight, bringing an end to the intraday pattern of higher lows. That raises the likeliness that we are due a bearish phase from here, with a renewed push up through the $0.7046 swing high required to bring the recent bullish pattern back into play.

Until such a break occurs, any short-term upside would look like a precursor to the pair turning lower in the direction of the wider trend.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD at risk of a bearish turn

The dollar shows signs of coming back into strength, with EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD at risk of rolling over once again.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 04 August 2022 

EUR/USD at risk of another bearish phase

EUR/USD has been attempting to stabilize itself over the past 24-hour, with the sharp declines seen earlier in the week raising the likeliness of the wider bearish trend coming back into play. With price having respected the 200 simple moving average (SMA) and trendline resistance on Monday night, this latest move lower does signal the potential end to this latest phase of gains for the pair.

Ultimately, the wider trend very clearly remains bearish and thus it makes sense to expect that to kick in once again before long. With that in mind, watch out for a break below the $1.0096 swing-low to bring the bears back into play once again. To the upside, we would need to see price move through the $1.021 level to bring about a more positive mindset.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD showing cracks in the bullish recovery story

GBP/USD has similarly been under pressure thanks to a recent risk-off move permeating throughout markets this week. That move back into the dollar has helped take GBP/USD down through trendline support following a rally up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. With a wider bearish trend in play, there is a risk of another protracted move lower if we end this current recovery phase.

With that in mind, watch for a break below $1.2063 to bring an end to this rebound, raising the likeliness that the bears come back into the play once again. To the upside, we would need to see the intraday selloff seen over recent days eradicated by pushing up through $1.2207.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD on the rise after improved export data

AUD/USD has enjoyed a strong start to the day, with the Australian dollar on the rise thanks to better-than-expected export data for June (5.1%). However, questions remain given the wider bearish trend in play here. The breakdown through $0.6911 does highlight the potential for the bearish trend to kick in once again here.

With that in mind, the gains we are seeing over the past 24-hours could represent a retracement before the pair heads lower once again. While a move back up through the $0.7047 level would bring a more positive outlook, the recent move back below $0.6911 does mean that this current rise is expected to falter before long.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD head lower as risk-off momentum takes hold

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD hit hard last week, with the dollar looking likely to dominate as key support levels are taken out.

AUDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 22 August 2022 

EUR/USD continuing its decline as dollar dominates once again

EUR/USD has been hit hard over the course of the past week, with the price falling back into a fresh one-month low. The recent break back below the $1.0122 signalled the beginning of the next downward phase for the pair, building on the downtrend evident over the course of the year thus far.

With that wider bearish trend in place, it makes sense to expect further weakness from here. As such, a bearish view holds from here, with a rise up through the $1.0203 swing-high required to negate that pessimistic outlook.

We may see an upward retracement at some point, yet the recent shift into lower highs and lows does point towards another downward turn as long as we do not rise through that latest swing-high.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD crumbles after double top formation

GBP/USD has similarly been hit hard over the course of the past week, with the price in free-fall as soon as the $1.20 handle was taken out. Crucially, that key round number corresponded with the neckline of a double top formation, with the wider bearish trend coming back into play here.

It is that 2022 downtrend which much be considered as the driver of the price action here, with the loss of support bringing expectations of a drop into and through the prior low of $1.176. For now, the price has been attempting to regain some of the lost ground, but bears remain in charge irrespective of whether we do see the price push higher or not.

Ultimately, we would need to see the price rise through the $1.2142 mark to negate this bearish outlook. Until then, further downside looks likely for this pair.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD falls back into key support after rise into Fibonacci resistance

AUD/USD has been on the back foot over the course of the past week, with the pair being sold heavily to take the price back into the $0.6869 swing-low. The theme around a strengthening dollar comes into play once again here, with the pair looking at risk of another period of weakness as stock markets roll over once more.

It is that risk-off demand for the dollar which is likely to be the key driver going forward, with stock-market declines likely to go hand-in-hand with AUD/USD weakness. For this pair, the ability to break back below the $0.6869 level is going to be key here. Such a break would bring about greater confidence that this sell-off will continue apace.

A rise up through the latest intraday swing-high of $0.697 would signal the potential for a more protracted upward retracement. However, we would ultimately need to rise through $0.7137 to negate the bearish view that comes with a break back below $0.6869.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD make new lower lows, while USD/JPY continues to climb

The dollar buying continues apace in FX markets, pushing the euro to a two-decade low and the pound to a two-year low against the US currency. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to target recent highs.

JPYSource: Bloomberg
 
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 23 August 2022 

EUR/USD hits fresh lows

The past two weeks have seen the downtrend reassert itself here with EUR/USD, and now the price has fallen to its lowest level in two decades.

The pair continues to eat into gains made in the post-February 2002 rally, but the next major levels to watch will be down at $0.8563.

The lower high of mid-August confirmed the downtrend, so it would take a rebound back above $1.031 to reverse the near-term bearish view.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD slips below $1.18

The renewed bout of risk-off sentiment in markets was already in play here with GBP/USD, as the price had fallen back from its August lower high at $1.22.

Price action has resulted in a fresh lower low for the pair, which has now dropped to a fresh post-March 2020 low. Further declines target that 2020 low at $1.14.

As with EUR/USD, the sellers seem firmly in charge, with little to indicate even a short-term rebound may develop.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY continues to aim for new highs

The fresh gains continue here, and USD/JPY now targets the highs of July at ¥139.40.

The pair recovered from the low of August, and having pushed back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has recovered a new lease of life in its current uptrend.

A reversal below ¥133.00 would put it back below the 50-day SMA and might signal a fresh attempt to push below the August low.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD turn upwards after recent slump

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD appear to be fighting back, but near-term gains look unlikely to reverse the bearish trend.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 24 August 2022 

EUR/USD declines ease as pair attempts to regain ground

EUR/USD has been hit hard over the course of the past week, with the pair slumping into a 19-year low on Monday. However, we have started to see some fight back for the pair with the price ticking higher over the past 24 hours.

Quite how far this upside move goes remains to be seen but ultimately this appears to be a retracement before we see the pair rollover once again.

With that in mind, bearish positions are still favoured yet short term upside could provide us with a more advantageous entry opportunity. This bearish outlook holds until the price manages to break up through the prior swing high (currently $1.0203).

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD stabilizes after period of downside

GBP/USD provides us with another example of a European currency being hit hard against the US dollar. The recent selling pressure has taken cable into a fresh two year low but we are starting to see that overwhelming pessimism ease somewhat as we come into today's session.

With the pair starting to move higher this also looks like a potential upside retracement phase before the sellers come back in.

As such bearish views remain prominent, with near-term games expected to provide fresh short entry opportunities for those not in the trade. This bearish outlook holds until the price breaks through the latest swing high of 1.2142.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD starts to regain ground after decline into key support

AUD/USD has started to show some signs of positive momentum following a decline into the key $0.6869 support level.

While that decline provided a breakdown of the bullish medium term trend, we look set for a near term retracement phase here before the bulls return to the fore.

With that same mind it makes sense to expect near-term upside, although recent signals suggest such a move would be short-term in nature with bearish positions favoured until price breaks up through the recent peak of $0.7136.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD on the rise ahead of Jackson Hole

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are on the rise ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, with short-term gains looking like retracements within bearish trends.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 25 August 2022 

EUR/USD on the rise ahead of Jackson Hole meeting

EUR/USD appears to be on the front foot once again today, with the pair moving tentatively through keep resistance level in early trade. With market declines easing, there is a clear focus on events in Wyoming as the Jackson Hole Symposium promises to provide greater clarity over Federal Reserve (Fed) thinking.

The push through $1.0018 raises the likeliness of a wider retracement phase coming into play, with a follow through above that level bringing expectations of further short term upside. Nonetheless, while a move through $1.0018 could lead to a period of short term upside, it would still be deemed a retracement and likely precursor to further downside for the pair. That's bearish view holds until we see price breakthrough the most recent swing-high of $1.0203.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD attempting to regain lost ground

GBP/USD has also taken a turn for the better this morning with the pullback seen over the beginning of the week forming a retracement that we are now utilising as leverage to spring higher over the near term.

A push through $1.1878 resistance would bring a wider upside move into play. However, this looks to be a retracement phase before the pair rolls over once again. A move up through $1.2142 would be required to negate that bearish outlook.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD breaks near-term resistance

AUD/USD is ahead of the pack, with the pair breaking higher following a decline into the key $0.6869 support level from early August. The rise through 6963 resistance points towards further upside coming into play here for the pair.

Just like the other pairs, such gains appear to be parts of a upward retracement before the bears come back into play. As such further upside does seem likely but this is deemed a precursor to the pair turning lower and selling off. That bearish outlook holds unless price manages to break up through the latest peak of $0.7137.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD move up and USD/JPY hits new two-decade high

The euro and sterling are making headway against the dollar, while USD/JPY has touched a fresh 25-year high.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 September 2022 

EUR/USD edges up

EUR/USD appears to be attempting to form a basing pattern, having tested new lows below $0.99 yesterday but without a definitive new leg lower.

Clearly the downtrend is firmly intact here, but having established a fresh low yesterday the price now seems to be in a mood to bounce in the short term.

The last rally from July until mid-August reached the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) before moving lower again, so this is an initial target if the price is able to move above $100.90, which marked the highs last week.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD moves up off two-year low

With GBP/USD the price came within a whisker of the Covid-19 low yesterday, but has edged up again today after the relentless drop of last week.

As with EUR/USD, this looks like a counter-trend bounce could be developing, and in this case we would look towards the July low at $1.176 and then the $1.19 highs from late August as the initial upside target. Then it would move on to the 50-day SMA at $1.1958.

Even a bounce to the 50-day SMA or above would leave the downtrend intact, so the broader bearish view is still in place, and it would need a move back above $1.2250 to suggest that a change is at hand.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY reaches fresh highs

An unstoppable uptrend is quite something to watch, and USD/JPY’s ascent certainly qualifies as such at present.

Continued progress to the upside would bring ¥146.75, the 1997 high, into view, and at the current rate it may not be long before this level is tested.

Upward momentum remains strong, as underlined by the high stochastic and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) readings, with little sign as yet of any reversal beginning to develop.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD expected to remain on the back foot

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD likely to maintain their bearish trend, as the dollar remains the currency of choice.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 07 September 2022 

EUR/USD falls into fresh 19-year low

EUR/USD has been on the slide once again, with the price falling through Monday’s low of $0.9878 to tentatively create a fresh 19-year low. Falling natural gas prices should help sentiment in Europe as traders weigh up the impact of soaring energy prices on growth. Meanwhile, tomorrow brings the latest European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, with markets largely expecting a historic 75-basis point (bp) hike from Lagarde and co.

Nevertheless, the downtrend remains intact, with economic struggles and market weakness bringing dominance for the dollar. That is expected to continue unless the price rises through the $0.9986 swing high. With that in mind, any short-term upside looks like a fresh selling opportunity until we break from this ongoing intraday trend of lower highs.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD heads back into support

GBP/USD has been attempting to push higher off the back of yesterday’s announcement that the new Prime Minister (PM) Liz Truss will cap energy prices in a bid to bring inflation under control. However, once again we have seen the dollar come back into prominence, driving the price down into the $1.1444 low established on Monday. What is worth noting here is that the price lies just marginally above the crucial $1.1411 support level, which represents the March 2020 low.

Beyond that level we are looking at a 37-year low. With the price having passed through the $1.159 swing high and this major support level below, it makes sense to exercise caution here. Thus, while the pair does look likely to break lower soon enough, it makes sense to await a decline through $1.1411 before taking on fresh positions.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD head and shoulders breakdown comes after RBA hike

AUD/USD has been hit hard since breaking through the head and shoulders neckline around a week ago. The wider bearish trend, coupled with that intraday bearish pattern signals the potential for a continued decline despite the potential for a short-term move higher at some point. While the price has been on the slide since completing that pattern, it is notable that we have still been creating lower highs throughout that period.

With that in mind, any near-term upside looks like a potential selling opportunity unless the price breaks through the $0.6832 swing high. To the downside, keep an eye out for the $0.6681 support level.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD bounce off multi-decade lows while USD/CAD tops out

Fundamental and technical analysis on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CAD.

US DollarSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 08 September 2022 

EUR/USD bounces off 20-year lows ahead of ECB rate decision

EUR/USD is in recovery mode ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and possible 75 basis point rate hike to 1.25%, having dipped to a 20-year low below the 99 cents mark earlier in the week on the back off Gazprom indefinitely shutting down the Nordstream 1 pipeline.

The cross has breached its one-month downtrend line at $0.9977 and seems to be gunning for its last reaction highs on the daily chart – a high made above that of the previous and the following day – which were made in late August at $1.0079 to $1.0089. Together with the late July low at $1.0097 these are likely to cap any further upside this week, though.

Minor support below the breached one-month downtrend line can be found at the $0.9901 23 August low. From a medium-term technical perspective, the cross remains under pressure while it stays below its late August high at $1.0089.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD briefly dipped to 37-year low

The announcement of the new UK prime minister Liz Truss’ election by her conservative party members pushed GBP/USD to levels last seen in 1985 as market players worry about how her proposed energy price cap and other economic policies which will add eye-watering amounts to the UK’s debt burden will affect the pound sterling.

After initial falls close to the $1.14 mark, the cross managed to stabilise and heave itself back above $1.15. It remains immediately under pressure, however, while it trades below this week’s high at $1.1609 and within its clearly defined downtrend channel.

GBP/USD has been trading in its downtrend channel for the past month, the upper resistance line of which comes in at $1.1586.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

USD/CAD stalls post BoC rate hike

USD/CAD short-term topped out at C$1.3209 following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to raise rates by 75 basis points to 3.25% on Wednesday, having risen from its C$1.2728 11 August low by close to 4%.

A retracement back towards its early September low, 23 August high and one-month uptrend line at C$1.3075 to C$1.3054 is now on the cards with this area expected to offer support, at least short-term.

Immediate resistance above today’s intraday high at C$1.3138 can be found at the 5 September C$1.3173 high with key resistance remaining to be seen between the July and early September highs between C$1.3208 and C$1.3223.

USD/CAD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD recover further from multi-decade lows, while EUR/GBP falters

EUR/USD and GBP/USD try to regain some of their recent losses, while EUR/GBP loses upside momentum.

GBPSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 09 September 2022 

EUR/USD probes resistance post 75-basis point ECB rate hike

EUR/USD shot up to its $1.0079 to $1.0097 late July low and late August highs following the European Central Banks (ECB) unprecedented 75-basis point (bp) rate hike on Thursday, following its 50-bp raise in July.

With the main refinancing rate now at 1.25% and policymakers indicating that several more rate hikes are planned for the months ahead, the Euro looks short-term bid, despite it currently being capped by the $1.0079 to $1.0097 resistance area. If overcome, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and 17 August high at $1.0155 to $1.0203 would represent the next upside target zone.

Minor support comes in around parity, a psychological level market participants focus on.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP retests June peak after ECB rate hike

EUR/GBP rallied close to its June peak at £0.8721 following the ECB’s 75-bp rate hike in September with the main refinancing rate now standing at 1.25%, the marginal lending facility at 1.5% and the deposit facility at 0.75%.

Short term, the June high is expected to cap with the July and early September highs around £0.8677 expected to be revisited. While Thursday’s intraday low at £0.8655 underpins, however, an immediate upside bias should be maintained. A rise and daily chart close above the June peak at £0.8721 would mean a significant break out of a key resistance zone and would open the way for the £0.8797 early February 2021 high to be reached.

Were a reversal to the downside to take shape, though, and Thursday’s low at £0.8655 to give way, another interim top would likely be formed with the current September low at £0.8567 being back in the firing line. The fact that negative divergence can be spotted on the daily relative strength index (RSI) points to the toppish scenario being the more likely one.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD recovers from its 37-year low

GBP/USD recovers from this week’s $1.1406 low, a level last traded in 1985, as market participants wonder how the new UK prime minister Liz Truss will finance her proposed energy price cap and other economic policies which will greatly add to the UK’s debt burden.

After initial falls close to the $1.14 mark the cross managed to break out of its August-to-September downtrend channel and revisit its $1.1609 Tuesday high which represents minor resistance. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, a minor bullish trend reversal will take shape with the July and 23 August lows at $1.1718 to $1.1761 being targeted.

Slips should find support on Friday around the $1.15 mark which acted as support in early September.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD recover further from multi-decade lows while EUR/GBP stalls

EUR/USD and GBP/USD regain more of their recent losses while EUR/GBP looks to be capped.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 12 September 2022 

EUR/USD probes resistance after last week’s 75-basis point ECB rate hike

EUR/USD continues to flirt with its $1.0079 to $1.0097 late July low and late August highs following last week’s European Central Banks (ECB) unprecedented 75-basis point (bp) rate hike and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stating over the weekend that the ECB will need to continue raising interest rates if high inflation persists.

With policymakers pursuing a hawkish stance and reportedly prepared to deliver another massive 75bp rate hike in October, the Euro is likely to revisit last week’s high at $1.0113. If overcome, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0146 and perhaps the 17 August high $1.0203 may be reached next.

Minor support comes in around parity, a psychological level market participants keep an eye on.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP continues to flirt with the July peak

Last week EUR/GBP rallied to £0.8711, close to its June peak at £0.8721, following the ECB’s 75bp rate hike in September before consolidating. On Monday morning the cross continues to trade near the July and early September highs around £0.8677 while retaining a slightly bullish bias as UK gross domestic product (GDP) grows by a less than expected month-on-month (MoM) 0.2% in July, industrial production drops by -0.3% (versus an expected 0.4%) and manufacturing production comes in weaker than expected at 0.1% (instead of a forecast 0.3%).

While Thursday’s intraday low at £0.8655 underpins, an immediate upside bias should be maintained. A rise and daily chart close above the June peak at £0.8721 would mean a significant break out of a key resistance zone and would open the way for the £0.8797 early February 2021 high to be reached.

Were a reversal to the downside to unfold, though, and Thursday’s low at £0.8655 to give way, another interim top would likely be formed with the current September low at £0.8567 being back in the firing line. The fact that negative divergence can be spotted on the daily relative strength index (RSI) points to the toppish scenario remaining the more likely one.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD recovers further from its 37-year low

GBP/USD recovers further from last week’s $1.1406 low, a level last traded in 1985, amid a postponed Bank of England (BoE) meeting due to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II’s passing last week and a period of national mourning being adhered to in the UK. The next BoE meeting will now take place on Thursday the 22 of September instead of this Thursday.

With the UK showing its smallest trade shortfall since last December with its trade deficit narrowing to GBP 7.8 billion in July from GBP 11.4 billion in the previous month while imports of goods and services to the UK fell by 1.6% from a month earlier, GBP/USD continues to rise.

A minor bullish trend reversal is taking place with the July and 23 August lows at $1.1718 to $1.1761 being in focus. Potential slips below the 6 September high at $1.1609 should find support around the $1.15 mark which acted as support in early September.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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Continued dollar weakness drives rebounds in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while weakening USD/JPY

The dollar is heading lower ahead of the latest US inflation reading today, driving counter-trend moves in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 13 September 2022 

EUR/USD opens the day above 50-day SMA

The latest rebound here has witnessed EUR/USD recover from the 20-year lows that we saw earlier in the month.

But the downtrend is still firmly in place, and while the price has managed to open above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since February, the overall bearish view has not changed. This is still a counter-trend rebound unless and until it breaches the August-high, at which point a more neutral view can be considered.

Further gains would target a move towards $1.035, while sellers will be watching for a reversal that puts the price back on a downward footing and indicates that yet another lower high has been created.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD rebound enters a third day

Dollar weakness has given sterling space to rally against the US currency, with GBP/USD moving higher as risk appetite recovers globally.

But like EUR/USD, it will take a lot to shift the bearish view. The price has yet to reach the 50-day SMA, and the August-highs at $1.225 mark the next major level to watch. For the moment the recovery is simply a bearish rebound.

While the bounce may move beyond the 50-day SMA and $1.20, the expectation is that a lower high will be created in due course.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY edges towards ¥142

After its fresh higher high last week, USD/JPY is dropping back, though the uptrend remains intact.

At present the pullback is only shallow, but a continued drop could go as far as the 50-day SMA (currently ¥137.10), or, as in the case of August, to the 100-day SMA (currently ¥134.37).

Nonetheless, any higher low reinforces the uptrend and points towards fresh gains. It will take a move back below the August-low to alter this outlook.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD hit hard after US core CPI rise

US dollar strength returns, with a rise in US Core CPI DRIVING EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD lower once again.

EUR/USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 14 September 2022 

EUR/USD reverses lower after US CPI release

EUR/USD has been hit hard in the wake of the US consumer price index (CPI) inflation reading, with particular attention being placed upon the core figure of 6.3% (up from 5.9%).

While monetary policy can have little impact upon energy prices, there is a feeling that it will be needed to help drive down the other areas of inflation that continue to surge higher according to this latest reading. The sharp selling pressure within global markets, coupled with renewed confidence of a 75-basis point (bp) hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) brings expectation of dollar strength moving forward.

The daily chart highlights a very clear trend, with the price reversing lower from trendline and Fibonacci (61.8%) resistance around $1.0176. That looks to spark a continuation of the downtrend that dominated 2022, with fresh lows looking likely before long. A push up through the $1.0369 level would be required to negate that wider bearish outlook.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD downtrend kicking back into play

GBP/USD has been attempting to regain lost ground over the course of Friday and Monday’s sessions, with the price rising back up through the $1.17 level.

Notably, that rebound took shape from the crucial long-term support level of $1.1411, which is taken from the 2020 March low. Nonetheless, the bearish trend remains dominant despite this long-term support level, with the price having turned lower from the near-term 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.

As such, another challenge of the $1.1411 level looks likely, with a break below that point needed to bring heightened expectations of a bearish continuation for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD head and shoulders breakdown continues after recent retracement

AUD/USD has similarly been hit hard over the past 24-hours, with the price reversing lower from the deep Fibonacci zone of $0.6891 to $0.6936.

The wider trend, coupled with the complete head and shoulders formation brings expectations of further downside for this pair.

That provided confidence that this recent rebound was likely to fail, and the US CPI has proven the catalyst for that move. To the downside, key support comes in the form of the $0.6681 to $0.6699 zone. A break below that region looks likely, with a bearish outlook holding unless we see the price break through the $0.7009 level.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP continue to slide

EUR/USD and GBP/USD tumble with EUR/GBP topping out as well.

EuroSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 15 September 2022 

EUR/USD forms significant top

EUR/USD managed to rise to $1.0198 on Monday before falling out of bed on Tuesday as US consumer price index (CPI) data came in worse than expected at 0.1% month-on-month in August and 8.3% year-on-year versus an expected 0.1% fall and 8.1% rise respectively. Core inflation also increased to 0.6% month-on-month versus an anticipated 0.3% and 0.3% in July.

These higher readings led to the belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pursue an aggressive monetary tightening policy to reign in soaring inflation which pushed the US dollar higher. Some market participants even expect to see a 100-basis points (bps) rate hike at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting instead of the previously anticipated 75-bps rate hike.

On Tuesday EUR/USD took a 1.5% hit and traded back below parity which it tried to overcome on Wednesday but to no avail with the late August low at $0.9901 thus being next in line while remaining below Wednesday’s high at $1.0023. Further down lies the early-September low at $0.9865 which may soon be revisited as well.

Good resistance above parity and $1.0023 remains to be seen at the $1.0079 to $1.0097 late-July low and late-August highs. Below it, the cross retains a bearish bias.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP consolidates further below its July and early-September highs

On Monday, EUR/GBP rallied to £0.8722, to its June peak at £0.8721 which provoked failure, before slipping since then with UK inflation unexpectedly slowing to 9.9% in August from 10.1% in July, which was the highest reading since 1982.

It is the first time in 11 months that inflation dropped, amid a big slowdown in the cost of motor fuel prices. Having said that, core prices continued to climb to 6.3% year-on-year versus 6.2% previously.

Negative divergence remains visible on the daily relative strength index (RSI) which points to a possible toppish scenario taking shape. A daily chart close below Wednesday’s low at £0.8626 would likely lead to the £0.8584 to £0.8567 zone being revisited. It consists of the mid-July high and early September low.

Minor resistance sits at the £0.8676 early-September high with further minor resistance seen at the £0.8711 8 September high. Only a currently unexpected rise and daily chart close above the recent £0.8722 peak would provoke a significant break out of a key resistance zone and would open the way for the £0.8797 early-February 2021 high to be reached.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD is seen heading back down towards its 37-year low

GBP/USD’s recent bounce to Tuesday’s high at $1.1738 was short-lived with it tumbling by over 1.5% amid higher-than-expected US inflation numbers which triggered the sell-off as investors priced in an even more aggressive tightening policy from the Fed to rein in soaring inflation.

The currency pair thus trades back around the $1.15 mark with the $1.1406 37-year early-September low exerting its gravitational pull. A fall through this low would lead to a four-month support line at $1.1259 being targeted ahead of the minor psychological $1.1000 level. Much further down lies the 1985 low at $1.0345.

Minor resistance above Wednesday’s high at $1.1589 lurks at the $1.1609 6 September high.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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GBP/USD slides to 37-year low, EUR/USD also lower while EUR/GBP rallies

EUR/USD and GBP/USD tumble while EUR/GBP rallies.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 16 September 2022 

EUR/USD resumes its descent

EUR/USD’s slide from Monday’s $1.0198 peak has so far taken it to this week’s low below parity amid worse than expected US inflation data earlier in the week which prompted market participants to expect further aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and which led to the US dollar appreciating. Some traders now expect to see a 100-basis points (bps) rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting instead of the previously anticipated 75-bps hike.

The late August low at $0.9901 is next in line while the cross stays below Wednesday’s high at $1.0023. Further down lies the early September low at $0.9865 which may soon be revisited as well. Good resistance above parity and $1.0023 remains to be seen at the $1.0079 to $1.0097 late July low and late August highs. Whilst below these, the cross retains a bearish bias.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP trades in 1,5-year highs

EUR/GBP’s rally to above the £0.8722 June and early September peaks as UK retail sales show their biggest decline so far this year by sinking by 1.6% month-on-month (MoM) in August versus an expected decline of 0.5% and a rise of 0.4% in July, has taken the cross to levels last traded in February 2021.

If Friday’s rise above £0.8722 were to also be followed by a daily and weekly chart close above this level, a significant break out of a key one-and-a-half-year resistance zone would unfold which would open the way for the £0.8797 early February 2021 high to be reached. Good support comes in at previous resistance, that is to say at the June and early September highs around the £0.8722 level.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD weakens to 37-year low

With the UK August core inflation rate accelerating to its highest level since 1992 and retail sales falling by the most this year, the GBP/USD is trading at levels last seen in 1985. This is the case despite the Bank of England (BoE) expected to raise its rates by 50 or 75bps next Thursday, following a 165-bps increase since December of last year.

GBP/USD has fallen by over 3% from Tuesday’s high at $1.1738 and is now trading below its $1.1406 37-year early September low with a four-month support line at $1.1259 being eyed. Further down lurks a minor psychological level at $1.1 and much further down lies the 1985 low at $1.0345. Minor resistance above the 7 September low at $1.1406 can be seen around the $1.15 mark and further up at Wednesday’s high at $1.1589.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD hold firm while USD/JPY edges higher

With little to drive them, FX markets are relatively quiet, although USD/JPY has managed to push higher after stabilizing in recent sessions.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 20 September 2022 

EUR/USD steady after recovery

EUR/USD has been able to recover over the past four sessions, moving back above parity again.

However, it is beginning to encounter increased bearish pressure after the drop last Tuesday. A reversal back below $0.9954 would put the sellers back in charge, and open the way to the lows of early September towards $0.986.

Continued gains target the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (currently $1.009), while a rally back above the current September high near $1.02 might suggest that the relentless downward move has been arrested for now.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD edges up

GBP/USD continues to defend the $1.14 level, as it did last week and earlier in September.

However, upside appears to be limited for the time being, especially with the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting looming large over Forex (FX) markets this week. Nonetheless, the continued defence of $1.14 does suggest that a rebound might be on the cards, although it would take a move back above $1.16 to provide firmer bullish impetus.

Further declines below the low of last week at $1.135 open the way to the 1985 lows at $1.07.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY looks to renew its move higher

After stumbling last week USD/JPY has stabilised, and is once more making headway.

This week’s Federal Open Market Commity (FOMC) decision may well be a key point for the pair, but it will take a move below ¥141.60 to signal that some near-term weakness has developed.

Further upside would target last week’s highs at ¥145, and from there a fresh two-decade high would result.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD hit hard as the FOMC gear up for another rate hike

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD continue to suffer as the dollar dominate once again.

 

 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 21 September 2022 

EUR/USD slumps as risk-off sentiment takes hold

EUR/USD has been hit hard over the beginning of this week, with the price falling back into a two-week low as Russia lays out plans to escalate the conflict with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the impending interest rate decisions from the US and UK provide the basis for greater uncertainty from the monetary policy perspective. That has brought about benefits for the dollar, as traders gear up for a potential jump in US rates this evening.

EUR/USD has subsequently been hit hard, with the price dropping through $0.9945 support to continue the wider bearish trend. A decline through $0.9864 would be particularly notable as it would draw a close to this latest period of consolidation and bring fresh multi-year lows. Until then, watch out for potential near-term consolidation, with a bearish outlook holding unless the price rises through $1.005 resistance.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD breaks support to reach 37-year low

GBP/USD has been hit hard once again this week, with the price following up the recent break through the critical $1.1411 level to provide a fresh 37-year low. That signals a willingness to continue the downward trajectory, with further dollar weakness expected despite the impending Bank of England (BoE) rate decision. With markets pricing in a 70% chance that Bailey and co raise rates by 75 basis point (bp), that also raises questions over what happens if they underwhelm by moving by just 50bp.

In any case, it seems difficult to envisage a scenario where the pound can muster enough strength to fight back against the dollar at a time when risk-off sentiment continues to drive demand for the greenback. As such, any short-term rebound is seen as a selling opportunity, with a rise through the latest swing high of $1.146 required to bring about a wider rebound. In either case, bearish positions are favoured as the dollar looks set to go from strength to strength.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD breaks through support to bring fresh two-year low

AUD/USD has similarly been on the back foot over the course of this week thus far, with the price falling into a fresh two-year low this morning. The existence of the wider bearish trend coupled with the more recent head and shoulders formation bring expectations of further downside to come. That has been playing out for all intents and purposes, with this latest break through $0.6681 support bringing expectations of further downside.

As such, further weakness looks likely here, with a rise through the $0.6747 level required to bring about a more positive short-term view. In any case, such upside would also be deemed a short-term rebound, with bears expected to dominate going forward.

AUD/USDSource: ProRealTime
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GBP/USD slips to 37-year low, EUR/USD to 20-year low while EUR/GBP rallies

EUR/USD and GBP/USD drop while EUR/GBP bounces off support.

GBPSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 September 2022 

EUR/USD drops to 20-year lows post Fed 75-basis point rate hike

EUR/USD’s slide from its mid-September peak at $1.0198 has taken it to levels last seen in October 2002 following the Federal Reserve (Fed) 75-basis point (bp) hike on Wednesday and its hawkish stance leading to expectations of another 125-bp rise over the next couple of meetings.

With the US dollar surging, EUR/USD slid to near 20-year lows with the breached one-month resistance line at $0.9756 representing a possible short-term downside target. Key support sits between the June 2000 and January 2001 highs and the September 2002 low at $0.9698 to $0.9593.

Minor resistance above the 6 September trough at $0.9865 remains to be seen between the late August low at $0.9901 and the 16 September low at $0.9946.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com


EUR/GBP bounces off minor support ahead of BoE rate decision

Last week’s EUR/GBP rally to above the £0.8722 June and early September peaks as UK retail sales showed their biggest decline so far this year by sinking by 1.6% month-on-month (MoM) compared to a rise of 0.4% in July, has taken the cross to levels last traded in February 2021 at £0.8787 before slipping back to its previous minor resistance, now minor support, at £0.8721 on Wednesday.

From there the cross is currently attempting to recover ahead of Thursday’s anticipated Bank of England (BoE) 50-bp rate hike with perhaps even 75-basis points being seen.

Above last week’s high at £0.8787 lies the £0.8797 early February 2021 high which will remain in sight while the currency pair stays above Wednesday’s low at £0.8712 on a daily chart closing basis. If £0.8712 were to give way, however, the July high at £0.8678 would be back in the picture.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com


GBP/USD sells off to new 37-year low

Following the Fed’s widely anticipated 75-bp rate hike on Wednesday - taking US interest rates to a 14-year high - and a continued aggressive hawkish stance, GBP/USD sold off to yet another 37-year low on the back of a stronger greenback ahead of Thursday’s BoE meeting and anticipated 50-bp rate increase.

The pound sterling is trading at levels last seen in 1985, but interestingly enough is temporarily holding along its June-to-September support line at $1.1212. Below it lies minor support around the psychological $1.10 mark and much further down major support at the 1985 low at $1.0345.

Any short-term bounce is expected to encounter resistance at the $1.1351 mid-September low in the first instance and then at the 7 September low at $1.1406. While the last reaction high on the daily chart at $1.146 caps, immediate downside pressure is expected to remain in play.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD head lower as dollar bulls continue to dominate

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD head lower as the dollar continues to dominate.

USDSource: Bloomberg
 
 Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 September 2022 

EUR/USD fades short term bounce

EUR/USD has once again proven its credentials as a pair worth shorting, with yesterday’s attempt at recovering lost ground proving short lived. The ongoing risk-off momentum permeating through financial markets does provide the basis for further dollar strength, with this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting serving to highlight the ongoing monetary tightening that should help drive this pair lower still.

As things stand, the price looks to be on the cusp of a fresh 19-year low, with the move through $0.9808 required to bring about another leg lower. To the upside, any bounce would be deemed a short-term retracement unless we see the price rise through the $1.005 resistance level.

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD heads into support after brief respite

GBP/USD similarly looks to be heading for a fresh long-term low, with the pair on the cusp of yet another 37-year low if $1.1211 is taken out. The ability to do so will be key today, with such a break bringing the beginning of another leg lower.

Should such a move take hold, short-term bearish positions are favoured once again, with a rise through the $1.1364 level required to end the intraday bearish trend and signal the beginning of another wider retracement coming into play.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

AUD/USD turning lower after rally into resistance

AUD/USD has been attempting to regain ground after the recent decline into a two-year low. That break through $0.6681 support was crucial in signalling the potential for further downside. However, with the price regaining ground earlier in the week, we have seen that prior support turn into resistance.

With a wider bearish trend in play, and the price turning lower from a key long-term resistance level, it makes sense to expect further downside from here. A rise through the $0.6747 level would be required to negate this bearish short-term view.

AUD/USD chartSource: ProRealTime
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GBP/USD in 37-year lows, EUR/GBP 2-year highs and EUR/USD fresh 20-year lows

GBP/USD slid to its 1985 low and EUR/GBP rallied to a 2-year high following the UK’s fiscal stimulus mini budget while EUR/USD slid to fresh 20-year lows amid Italian far right election outcome.

 

 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 26 September 2022 

EUR/USD drops to new 20-year lows as US dollar scales fresh 2-decade high

This year’s slide in EUR/USD has taken it to levels last seen in June 2002 amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) aggressive monetary tightening policy with market participants expecting another 125-basis point (bp) rate hike over the next couple of meetings, following three consecutive monthly 75bp rate rises which drove the US dollar to two-decade highs. With Italy’s first far right party since Benito Mussolini’s National Fascist Party in the 1920’s on course to win Sunday’s election, the euro is further under pressure.

EUR/USD slid by around 4% since last week to fresh 20-year lows, slightly below key support seen between the June 2000 and January 2001 highs and the September 2002 low at $0.9698 to $0.9593 by dropping close to the $0.955 mark. Below it beckons the September 2001 high at $0.9331.

Minor resistance can be spotted at the June 2000 high at $0.9698 above which lurks more substantial resistance around the 6 September trough at $0.9865.

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Euro and sterling recover against the dollar, while USD/JPY holds near ¥145.00

A short-term recovery for the euro and pound appears to be underway against the dollar.

 

 

 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 27 September 2022 

EUR/USD rises after hitting fresh 20-year lows

Yesterday saw the EUR/USD make a new milestone, touching fresh 20-year lows. The pair remains hobbled by the rush to the US dollar, which has been driven by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) more aggressive pace of tightening compared to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the better economic outlook in the US. In addition, worries about further EU tensions were stoked with the election of the new Italian PM, putting further pressure on the euro.

Selling the euro has been one of the big trades of the year, and while the bearish outlook is firmly in place, the yawning gulf between the price and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently $1.0058 points towards a potential recovery in the short-term. Nonetheless, further downside targets $0.9698 and then $0.9593, and then on to the September 2001 high at $0.9331.

 

EUR/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

GBP/USD edges back to $1.08

As for GBP/USD, Monday’s rapid fall propelled the current moves in sterling to the front pages of international financial news, as thin trading in the Asia session drove the pound to its lowest level since 1971 against the US dollar.

For now the pound has recovered, though the atmosphere remains febrile. So far, the Bank of England has not made any moves to raise rates again, merely saying it will not hesitate to act if necessary. Additional upside would target $1.1411, and then on towards the 50-day SMA (currently $1.076). This would mark an impressive rebound from the lows, but still leave the downtrend intact.

GBP/USD chartSource: ProRealTime

USD/JPY hovers below ¥145.00

USD/JPY has not really halted its advance despite Japan’s intervention last week. Overall, the stronger dollar continues to make headway against the yen thanks to the wide divergence in central bank policy. The pair finds itself knocking on the door of ¥145.00 again, the level that has acted as resistance during September. However, it seems like it will only be a matter of time before we see a close above this level. This then reignites the uptrend and creates a fresh higher high.

So far there is a little sign of a downward move that might prompt a reversal, though the 50-day SMA at ¥138.39 might be the first target in any such retracement.

USD/JPY chartSource: ProRealTime
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD regain some losses while EUR/GBP comes off two-year high

EUR/USD and GBP/USD regain some losses while EUR/GBP comes off two-year high as the Bank of England pledges to buy £65 billion worth of bonds to calm financial markets and avert a financial crisis.

GBPSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 29 September 2022 

EUR/USD bounces off lows as US dollar sees sharp decline

EUR/USD rapid sell off by over 6% from its mid-September high to levels last traded in June 2002 amid a rapidly rising US dollar on flight to quality flows is taking a breather following the Bank of England’s (BoE's) bond-buying pledge to calm financial markets and avert a financial crisis on Wednesday.

Moving away from its previous quantitative tightening policy, the BoE said on Wednesday that it was setting aside £65 billion to buy bonds until mid-October to ease pressure on pension funds and insurance companies which led to a fall in the US dollar and benefitted EUR/USD.

EUR/USD thus recovered from fresh 20-year lows at $0.9536, made slightly below key support seen between the June 2000 and January 2001 highs and the September 2002 low at $0.9698 to $0.9593, and managed to heave itself back up to $0.975 before coming off again Thursday morning. Below $0.9536 lies the September 2001 high at $0.9331. Minor resistance above $0.975 can be found between the one-month downtrend line and the 6 September low at $0.986 to $0.9865.

EUR/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com

EUR/GBP consolidates below its two-year high

EUR/GBP’s intraday rally by some 6% to £0.9283 on Monday, close to the £0.9291 September 2020 high, on the back of the biggest tax cuts in the UK in 50 years following last Friday’s mini budget, has been followed by a consolidation period due to the BoE intervening and buying bonds.

It stated 'were dysfunction in this [government bond] market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability. This would lead to an unwarranted tightening of financing conditions and a reduction of the flow of credit to the real economy.' The BoE went on to say 'in line with its financial stability objective, the Bank of England stands ready to restore market functioning and reduce any risks from contagion to credit conditions for UK households and businesses' which calmed the EUR/GBP exchange rate.

Following the UK central bank’s intervention, EUR/GBP slid back below the minor psychological £0.9 mark and briefly traded as low as £0.8853 before consolidating around the £0.895 level. Minor resistance can now be spotted at Wednesday’s £0.9065 high and support below £0.8853 at the 19 September high at £0.8787.

EUR/GBP chartSource: IT-Finance.com

GBP/USD range trades above its $1.035 all-time low

Following the UK’s aggressive fiscal stimuli mini budget on Friday, GBP/USD dropped by over 7% and slid below its 1985 low to a record low at $1.035 before regaining some of its recent losses on short covering trades amid the BoE’s £65 billion bond buying announcement on Wednesday in order to stabilise financial markets.

GBP/USD currently trades in technical no man’s land between the $1.035 record low and the minor psychological $1.1 level.

Above it minor technical resistance can only be spotted between the 7 and 16 September lows at $1.1351 to $1.1406 while immediate support can be found at Wednesday’s $1.0541 low.

GBP/USD chartSource: IT-Finance.com
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