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By Caseynotes · Posted
The spike down in indices in the last hour was the same ol' trade war news, China stating they are less optimistic than the US and feel they have been mislead by recent talks where they felt they had agreement over a rollback of tariffs that the US now say is not the case. After 18 months of this you should be use to it by now. -
Dax, Nikkei and FTSE100 remain below recent (past 2 weeks) turning points and we have seen an interesting recent bearish candle in play on US large caps, a potential spike and retrace back down, which could signal rally exhaustion. In the case of the Dow and Nasdaq this occurred with an overshoot of the 4H chart rally channel and in the case of the Nasdaq also the Daily and Monthly long term resistance trend lines (overshoot and quick retrace being a particular signal of an exhaustion phase). In the case of the SP500 this has occurred with a hit right on the Daily resistance trend line and rejection, so far at least. As I have mentioned before: with volume relatively weak and seemingly in a down trend; and with COT net long positions weak and weakening (not what one would expect of a breakout rally); and with Gold/Silver rallying; and with NMD at the turn points on all markets and as USDJPY has also taken a similar bearish hit; the odds of a bearish phase are good and the risk reward is decent. I am already Short Dax and FTSE100 off the previous turns but money where my mouth is this time on SP500, as the exposure is tiny, I am Short off the hit and turn on the daily trend line with tight stops just above.
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