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AUD USD is the nightmare Triangle returning??


donaldprice

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Aud usd is my number 1 currency i do enjoy trading, but history seems to repeating itself again as a triangle seems to be forming on the daily timeframe. Currently Gold and AUD USD showing a a 76% correlation and this is evident in the chart below attached. At the epicenter of this of course is the dollar index. CFTC data is also showing an interesting changes as well with non-commercials increasing their net longs whilst of course the opposite with the commercials. How i would play this would be to observe the top resistance level at 7761 and a solid close above would negate the ABCDE pattern/triangle, however represents a small risk trade. Also observe changes in gold and dollar as this will heavily influence the path trajectory. The question for the medium long term of course is how long will interest rate spread widen. Inflation rate current 1.5% RBA target over 2%. However with rising commodity prices and a weaker currency this is adding support for the present not to mention those great trade balance figures.  

Be interesting to see how this plays out next week but it is definitely one i will be closely watching.

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