eurusd

[Caseynotes]

Attempting continuation of yesterdays breakout out of the ascending channel that started in early Jan.

 

[Caseynotes]

French prez race, Filon to make a statement at 12:00, rumours he may be dropping out?

[Caseynotes]

Spokesman for Fillon confirms he is still running in French prez race.

 

[Caseynotes]

Very interesting article on the persistent 3 year ranging of eurusd and why, after the round of Euro elections, it may bounce.

 

http://commentary.3canalysis.com/fx/why-its-not-easy-to-move-eurusd-outside-its-2-year-range/ 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Looking to break down at early week start trading after failed retest of last month high on Friday.

Support at 11320.

4hr chart.

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Big day for eurodollar, balanced on the monthly range top and waiting for directions up or down from the Draghi presser at 1:30 pm.

Weekly chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

August bull flag consolidation, beware over weekend positions with Jackson Hole symp, Draghi and Yellen speeches and UK August bank holiday Monday.

EURUSD looking for a direction push and may find it as news from the symposium is digested.

 

List of key CB phrases to listen out for by Bloomberg.

EURUSD daily chart.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-25/jackson-hole-bingo-play-along-to-avoid-jargon-induced-lethargy?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Is at an interesting level, after completing the head and shoulders pattern on daily chart now retesting the neckline. FOMC minutes from last meeting released today at 7 pm may determine which direction next for eurusd.

Daily and 1 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Interesting pin bar shaping up on the daily chart at repeated resistance/supply level 1.1860 which would suggest a down turn to find new support/demand, most recently found at 1.1600.

 

[Caseynotes]

Re-visiting resistance at 1.1860, set to break-out or reverse, not much on the calendar next week to provide a push up so may well return to 1.1712.

 

Daily chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Having broken out on Friday price is now re-testing the breakout level. Snagged by RSI divergence. Will have to rely on bad US data this week if there is to be an attempt on 1.2090.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Bank of America say US tax reforms not fully priced in, targets eurusd 1.10 and gbpusd 1.26 by end of Q1 2018.

 

http://news.forexlive.com/!/us-tax-reforms-not-fully-priced-in-where-to-target-baml-20171206

[Caseynotes]

The monthly resistance level 1.20921 has blocked progress yet again and looks very solid, price now looking for support. The 1.19610 is previous resistance and may provide weak support but probably will not hold. The zone between weekly support level at 1.17172 and the 23.6 Fib around 1.16686 looks more likely. Failing that there is the monthly support level at 1.15538.

The 100MA may also provide a bounce as it has in the past, wait and see.

 

The main trend is still up but the MAs are levelling off and the weekly and monthly charts are shaping into a double top.

There is not much on the calendar to give this a push either way until Friday with US CPI and retail sales. 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

BoAML have just released an interesting short note warning of a potential Bull Trap risk on this pair. They warn that a weekly close above 1.2092 - 1.21 could well be a trap, so clearly they think this run up is over and price will soon be heading down. 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

BoAML

 

You don't need BOA to telly you anything 

 

You could have read the charts and price action. Price action works sometimes,  but you  need patience and longer time frame trading.Only reason why price action does not work, is "it is difficult to time the markets".

 

What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?

 

I can show you hundreds of examples why market timing screws up price action.

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/educational-resources/221422-what-happens-when-you-try-time-market-7.html#post2899278

 

*** Intraday Price Action Scalping on FX Majors ***

[Caseynotes]

I wrote yesterday "The 1.19610 is previous resistance and may provide weak support but probably will not hold."

That seems to be the case as the sharp drop off continues. Price now well below the 200ma on the 1 hour chart.

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Do you fink Tradecity can market this George Soros formula(real  trader not forum fake)?

 

https://community.ig.com/t5/FX-and-Cryptocurrency/Using-options-on-fx-trading-profit/m-p/19068#M2460

 

George Soros set and forget strategy

 

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Did you trade anything? or supposedly trade anything?

[Caseynotes]

Oh look, the cut and paste fantasist has been back on this thread again, ignore. US PPI data out today, the euro was not able to capitalise on the dollar shaking news yesterday that China may cut or stop buying US Treasuries. Price has fallen back below 1.19610. The most likely scenario for today is a search for support.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

US CPI and retail sales today 1:30 pm. Business Insider article hinting at a possible very low figure putting more pressure on USD and bond yields.

 

 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-cpi-report-preview-rbc-2018-1

 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casey 

 

You do all this analysis.They you debunk trading psychology

 

Here is a way to test , why mindsets and mental states dictate the failure of technical analyses, price action snake oil , trend trading and trend losses and chop outs.

If traders were given the above price action , trend trading ,chop outs and fundamental analysis , if the they were in the following emotional states , what would be the end results of the analyses?

 

I know you will be dismissing my discussions, this is because you can not give a healthy debate.

 

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/i-need-help-in-finding-a-trading-educator.302929/

[Guest oilfxpro]

Thank you casey for very accurate  trading analysis in foresight.

 

I just place an order on euro usd.I gave a like to your post.

 

[Caseynotes]

:smileysurprised:

[Guest oilfxpro]

Your analysis is very good!Thank you  very much

 

Just read this site about people who do technical analysis.

 

http://t2weducators.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/trading-education-scams.html

[Caseynotes]

It is very rare I ever follow any of your links, they are usually to some public forum site where there is a thread that matches your own jaundiced view on TA and educational material that I know to be false, hypocritical and usually irrelevant.  

 

I do my own TA on a daily basis and share anything I see that I think may have some bearing on the day's market, I might also link to a story that may pan out to have some relevance on the day's events. If anyone doesn't like it fine, don't look at it. You seem to imply anyone who does as such is in some way trying to scam people. I have never been interested in providing trading tips and am wary of anyone who does, and I am especially not interested in calling trades as only stats over a large number of trades would actually have any relevance as to performance, and then again I don't actually need to prove anything to anyone.

[Caseynotes]

Sits above 1.20920 for the first time since the end of 2014 having been lifted at the end of last week on data releases. Being such an important level and there being minimal data this week that might cause follow through I would be looking for a retest of 1.20920 before an attempt to move on.

 

 

  

[Guest oilfxpro]

 I would be looking for a retest of 1.20920 before an attempt to move on.

 

Keep up the analysis ,it is great!

 

So there is no trade yet?

[Caseynotes]

Most people struggle when they are just buying the highs as it comes down to a simple coin toss. Most like to apply a little analysis to give themselves an edge. 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Can you make your analysis a bit more professional by adding entry point, price action , few more indicators, a few more moving averages.Don't talk psychology in those analysis.

Thanks for analysis.

[Caseynotes]

Analysis is not trade tips, don't need more indicators and please speak English so you are more likely to be understood.