IMF warns Bank of England against inflation inaction ahead of key vote
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10/06/21 10:53
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Charting the Markets: 2 June Indices rally as US agrees debt ceiling bill. EUR/USD, GBP/USD rally while EUR/GBP stabilises as US debt ceiling bill is passed. And WTI recoups recent losses while gold, silver on track for first weekly advance. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 June 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to. -
It was a blockbuster number yesterday for the ADP private payrolls, showing 278,000 jobs opened in May, while forecasts had been for 170,000. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 June 2023 IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor suggests a similar upside surprise could see almost 300,000 jobs created under the non-farm payroll count with estimates for 190,000 job creations. The unemployment rate is seen rising one notch to 3.5%. (Video Transcript) NPFs: what to expect Could yesterday's strong private payrolls number from the ADP reading give us an insight into the potential upside risk to today's non-farm payrolls? That report from ADP yesterday showed 278,000 jobs opened in May - forecasts had been for 170,000. Now the NFP expectations, 190,000 job creations are forecast for the month of May proportionately using that ADP surprise. That would mean an upside reading for NFPs close to 300,000. Why the increase? Now, the unemployment rate is seen rising one notch to 3.5%. Why is that rising? When you've got that rise in the number of job creations, the unemployment rate is not taking the same data that the jobs numbers themselves are being produced from average hourly earnings. We're looking there for that to go up 0.3% month-on-month, 4.4% year-on-year, still below the rate of inflation. Now, this chart shows the unemployment rate back to pre-Covid-19 levels. It's clear that jobs have been created at an appreciable rate and this alongside a relatively strong GDP number and inflation coming down, there may yet be a soft landing for the US economy. But if the Federal Reserve (Fed) does continue to raise rates, things may get a little bit more sticky for the economy and a little bit more difficult to predict. This is a comparison of fed funds rates and US consumer price inflation (CPI) since January 2021. So you can see here the rate at which the US central bank has been piling the pressure on the monetary markets with that rise to five and a quarter percent. And at the same time, the CPI number is coming down, which is a good thing, but it's still not down to the 2% level, 4.9% is a long way away still from the 2% target. So the Fed is entitled still to have an excuse to raise interest rates. US dollar basket Let's take a look at what's been happening with the US dollar basket. Yesterday, we saw a pullback coming through as we saw money going into risk assets because of that rubber stamping from the Senate or the vote in the Senate to approve the budget that's now gone for the presidential seal. EUR/USD And we've seen a second day in a row of losses or the euro for the dollar basket as far as the euro/dollar is concerned, bouncing away from that 76.4% retracement. And I think now, you will have been stopped out if you were short on this, you would have been stopped out on this and hopefully you would have got some profits on the way down. So that's where things are ahead of non-farm payrolls out today at 13:30 UK time. And we will be live on the IG platform at 13:25 today.
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Escalating inflation and burgeoning wages prime the stage for a probable 25bp rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia in the upcoming meeting. Source: Bloomberg Inflation Wage Consumer price index Reserve Bank of Australia Interest rates Australia Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Friday 02 June 2023 The Reserve Bank Board of Australia is scheduled to meet on Tuesday, the 6th of June, at 2.30 pm in what is expected to be another line ball decision. Last month, the RBA sent ripples through the market, lifting the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%. Marking the RBA’s eleventh rate increase in a cycle starting last May, it amounted to a cumulative 375bp hike. With inflation having likely peaked, the RBA concluded it remained too high, warranting an additional hike to realign inflation with the target. Governor Lowe's standpoint In a recent statement, Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, underscored the significance of ushering inflation back on target in a sensible timeframe, hence justifying the Board's decision to implement another uptick in interest rates. "The importance of returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe underscored the board's judgement that a further increase in interest rates was warranted." Maintaining its tightening stance, the RBA indicated its willingness to instigate additional rate hikes, contingent on the economy and inflation's trajectory. Lowe emphasised the Board's vigilance over global economic developments, trends in household spending, and inflation and labour market forecasts. "Continued attention will be paid to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market." RBA cash rate chart Source: RBA Market forecasts and the RBA's decisions In the wake of the RBA’s May Board meeting, wages, employment, and retail sales data have come out softer than expected. Bucking the trend of milder data, the Monthly CPI indicator exceeded expectations at 6.8% (vs 6.4% exp). The core measure of inflation, the trimmed mean, lifted from 6.5% to 6.7%. As the monthly CPI indicator is relatively new and this month excluded around 35% of the items in the basket (35% of the basket is surveyed in the second or third month of the quarter), its credibility is less than quarterly inflation numbers. Nonetheless, the re-acceleration in the Monthly CPI indicator will not sit well with an RBA looking for firm signs that inflation is cooling after its record-breaking run of rate hikes. Also, likely to be figuring in the RBA’s considerations, the Fair Work Commission handed down its Annual Wage Review for 2022-2023 this morning. The decision to increase award and minimum wages by 5.7% exceeded market expectations of 5%, came below the 7% the ACTU claimed, and surpassed the 3.5% employers sought. The RBA's predicament and likely decision The RBA has highlighted its focus on wage growth and subdued productivity in recent communiques. “Unit labour costs are also rising briskly, with productivity growth remaining subdued.” Cognizant of the RBA’s predicament of cooling inflation while keeping the economy on an “even keel”, the Australian interest rate market is pricing a ~25% chance of an RBA rate hike next week. However, due to the hotter than expected Monthly CPI indicator and the higher-than-expected rise in the award and minimum wages at the Annual Wage Review, we think the RBA will elect to raise rates by 25bp to 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday. Source: ASX Summary The Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia has a meeting on the calendar for Tuesday, June 6th, at 2:30 pm. In a decision that's likely to be finely balanced, we anticipate the RBA will opt for a 25bp hike, pushing rates to 4.10%
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