Jump to content

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Leading into 2022

Recommended Posts


  • Dow Jones upward momentum keeps slowing, but broader trend bullish
  • S&P 500 futures facing potential bearish Double Top chart formation
  • Nasdaq 100 may have more room lower before facing key support levels
Watch these stocks for a Nasdaq 100 bounce | Seeking Alpha


Even though the Dow Jones remains in a broader uptrend since March 2020, prices remain close to levels last seen in May of this year. Indeed, the index’s uptrend this year has been progressively slowing. The latest bout of market volatility followed the last Federal Reserve interest rate decision of this year, where the central bank offered a notable hawkish pivot to its outlook.

The latest price action in the Dow left it rejecting the 35807 – 36098 resistance zone, closing under the 50-day Simple Moving Average and the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 35461. This leaves Dow futures facing the downside heading into the final few weeks of the year. Still, prices remain above the longer-term 200-day Simple Moving Average, which is maintaining the broader upside focus.

In the event prices weaken ahead and close under the 200-day line, follow-through will be key. To that end, keep a close eye on the 3383 – 33623 support zone. The latter has been in play since July. Uptrend resumption entails a pass above 36446. Do keep an eye on RSI. Negative divergence could emerge, showing fading upside momentum, undermining progress higher.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Leading into 2022

Chart Created in TradingView


S&P 500 futures once again rejected the 4740 – 4711 resistance zone this past week. This range has been keeping upside progress at bay since late October. Negative RSI divergence has also been persistent, hinting at a turn lower. This could be the next move for the S&P 500, especially with a bearish Double Top chart formation brewing.

Still, follow-through is key. The neckline of the Double Top seems to be the 4492 – 4549 support zone. A breakout under this range could make the chart formation active, hinting at further downside losses. In such an outcome, the 200-day SMA will likely come into focus. This could still maintain the broad upward focus. Resuming the uptrend places the focus on the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 4903.


Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Leading into 2022

Chart Created in TradingView


Nasdaq 100 futures have also been quite wobbly as of late, with prices still below the all-time high of 16767 set in late November. However, a rising trendline from September 2020 continues to maintain the dominant uptrend – red lines on the chart below. Even beyond the trendline is the 200-day SMA. This hints that there may be more room left to the downside before prominent technical levels come into play.

Immediate support seems to be the 15538 – 15708 inflection zone, where taking it out exposes the trendline. To the upside, immediate resistance is the 16448 inflection point. This is a price that stands in the way of the Nasdaq retesting the all-time peak. Extending the uptrend exposes the 100% Fibonacci extension at 17161.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Leading into 2022

Chart Created in TradingView


Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 29/09/22 05:18
  • Posts

    • PayPal Holdings Inc.,Elliott Wave Technical Analysis PayPal Holdings Inc.,(PYPL:NASDAQ): Daily Chart,September 29 2022 PYPLStock Market Analysis:It looks like we have a three wave structure to the downside which makes us believe the count is moving as expected. Waiting for confirmation level to be broken. PYPLElliott Wave count:{c} of 2. PYPLTrading Strategy:Lookinga break of the green line and then a three wave pullback. PYPLTechnical Indicators:We are trying to go back above the 20 EMA. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta       PayPal Holdings Inc.,PYPL: 4-hour Chart,September 29 2022 PayPal Holdings Inc.,ElliottWave Technical Analysis PYPLStock Market Analysis:The most important thing was to count 5 waves into wave {c} and we can identify them. PYPLElliott Wave count:{c} of 2. PYPL Technical Indicators:Above the 20EMa and RSI made a bounce into neutral territory. PYPLTrading Strategy:Looking a break of the green line and then a three wave pullback.
    • The rally on Wall Street yesterday provided Asian markets with a reason to bounce, as oversold stocks and excessively bearish sentiment finally gave way to some bargain hunting among investors. The Bank of England's decision to intervene in bond markets yesterday provided the foundation for at least a short-term bounce, but whether it turns into anything more sustained remains to be seen. Longer-term of course, rates continue to rise, and the economic outlook remains grim, suggesting that earnings will keep coming under pressure. Thus while another 'bear market bounce' may be in the offing, the overall outlook still suggests that risk assets will struggle. Today sees German CPI and weekly US jobless figures, along with speeches from Fed members Bullard and Mester.   
    • For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage:   Relief for the markets as the mighty USD saw one of its biggest single day declines since the early days of Covid Indices: New lower lows and a mini capitulation for most markets before a rebound. Europe expected to open up. APAC all higher FX: USD weakness unwinding a small degree. EURUSD awaiting German inflation expected to tick up by a margin of more than 150bps to 9.4%’ GBP weaker again  Equities: Toyota global vehicle sales up 44.3% in Aug, a record for the month Commods: Pretty much all of the commodity complex showing an upward retracement in the wake of that weaker USD. Today a small drop apart from oil which is holding Wednesday’s gains      
  • Create New...