Gold heading into 2022 (Cyclical Analysis)

[MongiIG]

42 minutes ago, Carl-Gustav said:

TD Combo and Sequential just perfected a Buy Setup, supporting a bullish outlook into next week.

Hi @Carl-Gustav

FOREX SEASONALITY IN GOLD (VIA XAU/USD)

January is a very bullish month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second best month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a gain of +2.77%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the best month of the year, averaging a gain of +4.15%. DailyFX

We will see what Gold will be like next week!

 

All the best - MongiIG

[CGETrading]

1 minute ago, MongiIG said:

Hi @Carl-Gustav

FOREX SEASONALITY IN GOLD (VIA XAU/USD)

January is a very bullish month for gold (XAU/USD), from a seasonality perspective. Over the past 5-years, it has been the second best month of the year for the precious metal, averaging a gain of +2.77%. Over the past 10-years, it has been the best month of the year, averaging a gain of +4.15%. DailyFX

We will see what Gold will be like next week!

 

All the best - MongiIG

Very interesting, thanks for sharing!

[CGETrading]

This is what the Socrates Array for Daily Gold looks like;

Socrates Commentary (ai):

The strongest target in the Daily array is Mon. 17th for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. There are 4 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Fri. 7th to Wed. 12th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 4 Days. It does appear we have a choppy period starting Thu. 13th until Mon. 17th with each target producing the opposite direction for that 3-day period. There are 4 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Fri. 7th to Wed. 12th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 4 Days. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

Gold elected the Daily bullish reversal at 1795.8.

Next weeks outlook is bullish, at least on a short term basis.
The next Daily bullish reversal stands at 1804.7 which provides a 90pip trading range.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[RCtrader]

You were saying that 6th of January to be the date when Russian invades Ukraine. Where did you get that date from? From what I remember, experts were saying that Russia scheduled an invasion in February. And even if they were to do that in January, it would be later than 15th of January. That is because Russians celebrate Christmas on 6, 7, and 8 of January and saint Vasile on the 14, 15 of January. 

[CGETrading]

1 hour ago, RCtrader said:

You were saying that 6th of January to be the date when Russian invades Ukraine. Where did you get that date from? From what I remember, experts were saying that Russia scheduled an invasion in February. And even if they were to do that in January, it would be later than 15th of January. That is because Russians celebrate Christmas on 6, 7, and 8 of January and saint Vasile on the 14, 15 of January. 

I got it from,

www.ask-socrates.com

www.armstrongeconomics.com

[CGETrading]

[MongiIG]

On 08/01/2022 at 00:08, Carl-Gustav said:

Gold elected the Daily bullish reversal at 1795.8.

Next weeks outlook is bullish, at least on a short term basis.
The next Daily bullish reversal stands at 1804.7 which provides a 90pip trading range.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Over the new year period, gold tried to rally toward the November 2021 peak of 1877.15 but it was unable to overcome the 1831.65 pivot point and that level may continue to offer resistance.

On that move higher, it went above the upper 21-day simple moving averages (SMA) based Bollinger Band but it was unable to follow through on the breakout and retreated back inside the range.

Despite notable daily ranges, volatility remains at subdued levels as illustrated by the relatively narrow width of the Bollinger Bands. A sustained breach of either Bollinger Band might see a trend unfold.

Support could be at the pivot points and previous lows of 1761.99, 1758.93, 1753.10 and 1721.71.

On the topside, resistance may lie at the previous highs of 1829.68, 1831.65 and 1877.15.

Chart created in TradingView

 

Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 10th Jan 2022

[CGETrading]

Todays Bearish Reversals to keep an eye on,

1789

1784

1773.3

1773.2

1771.1

Edited January 10, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

From a cyclical perspective a move down to 1773.20 seems likely, that would also be the 2nd leg down.

[MongiIG]

2 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Todays Bearish Reversals to keep an eye on,

1789

1784

1773.3

1773.2

1771.1

Thanks for sharing!

 

2 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

From a cyclical perspective a move down to 1773.20 seems likely, that would also be the 2nd leg down.

 

GOLD WEEKLY PRICE CHART

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

GOLD SHORTER-TERM

Shorter-term, Gold prices have been chomping between range support and resistance for a few weeks now. That confluent spot around 1830 has now held two resistance inflections, with the most recent leading to a push down to a lower-low as buyers came into offer support at the familiar level of 1784. That level was traded at early on Friday morning, after which sellers have continued to pull back off of the throttle to allow for a short-term bear flag to form – which can keep the door open for bearish scenarios this week.

GOLD FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

GOLD LEVELS

That 1784 level is a fairly obvious spot of support. But, below that are two other highly relevant levels at 1771 and 1752, which currently functions as the three-month-low in Gold prices. A breach of that 1752 level brings up the possibility of a test of big picture support, around the same 1680-1700 level that was in play three times last year.

Above current price action, 1800 is near-term resistance, after which 1815 and 1830 come into play. Bulls aren’t necessarily out of the woods beyond 1830 either, as the 1876 level remains prominent for the longer-term scenarios.

GOLD FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com. 10th Jan 2022.

[CGETrading]

Kazakhstan – NATO & The ECM into 2032
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/kazakhstan-nato-the-ecm-into-2032/

[MongiIG]

Gold Price Keeps its Head Above 1800 as Focus Shifts to Fed’s Powell

GOLD ANALYSIS

• Fed Chair Powell speech later today.
• Inflation data could be the catalyst markets have been waiting for.
• Safe-haven stimulus may be growing.
• IG client sentiment backs move higher.

 

BULLION FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Spot gold tracks higher this morning on the back of a softer dollar and a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields. Markets brace themselves for Fed Chair Powell’s re-nomination speech later today where he will surely take the full might of the senate around topics including inflation, labor market and the overblown balance sheet. The manner in which Mr. Powell responds to these questions could hint at the “hawkishness” of the Fed and consequently give markets some directional bias going forward. Balancing both a supportive growth environment while combating inflation is the crux of the matter ad near impossible but a line needs to be drawn at some point.

A more aggressive Fed may point to a stronger dollar and could hurt any gold upside as real yields should extend its recent upward trajectory – rising real yields traditionally reflect a negative correlation with bullion due to the increasing opportunity cost of holding gold (non-interest bearing asset).

TREASURY REAL YIELD CURVE RATES 5,10-YEAR:

Source: Nasdaq Data Link

Omicron is still very real across the globe despite the relatively mild symptoms associated with the new variant. Record numbers are being seen in many countries including the U.S. and may play into the hands of the precious metal and its safe-haven allure.

GOLD ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Barring Fed Chair Powell’s speech; tomorrow holds the weeks most anticipated economic data release, U.S. inflation for the December period. An estimate beat could increase markets rate hike expectations and cement the much talked about 4th rate hike for 2022. Again, this should weaken gold prices. The same is true for an inflation miss which could bring back the transitory rhetoric leaving the dollar open to a break lower from its recent range bound move.

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Gold price action reveals market indecision since late November 2021 as traders flirt with the 1800.00 psychological level. This week, gold bulls pushed above this key area of confluence while fundamentals take the reins. Both outcomes are on the cards for traders this week but technical chart patterns echo a bull flag breakout (blue) unfolding. A candle close above flag resistance could bring into consideration the December swing high at 1820.29.

Resistance levels:

• 1830.00
• 1820.29

Support levels:

• 1800.00
• 1782.61

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT BULLISH

IGCS shows retail traders are currently distinctly long on gold, with 71% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment and the fact traders are net-long is suggestive of a short-term bearish inclination however, with the recent move out of longs relative to shorts means the current outlook favors gold upside.

Jan 11, 2022 |  Warren Venketas, Analyst. DailyFX

[CGETrading]

Buy buy buy brrrrrrrrrrr $$$$$

[CGETrading]

Today is the 3rd reaction in Gold from the Daily high made January 14.

This means that today/tomorrow could be a turning point moving forward.

[CGETrading]

We are at the bottom of the cycle, a rally from here will challenge the 1832 reversal.

[CGETrading]

[MongiIG]

Link: Russia, Ukraine Crisis Ignored by Financial Markets?

Jan 19, 2022 |  Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst. DailyFX

[MongiIG]

GOLD TECHNICAL FORECAST

Gold has been falling slightly since last week when prices failed to climb above major resistance near the 1830 level. The rising 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) may underpin prices this week, with the key SMA directly below current prices. A break below that would open the 1800 psychological level up for a test. Prices may continue to trade within these major support and resistance levels until a fundamental catalyst triggers a directional move.

GOLD DAILY CHART

Chart created with TradingView

Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com. 19th Jan 2022.

[MongiIG]

Gold Prices Down on Yield Surge but Russia-Ukraine Tensions has Bulls Ready to Fire

 

[CGETrading]

BRRRRRRRRRRR$$$$$$$$$

Overhead resistance start at 1840.

[CGETrading]

Let’s see if we close above the major daily bullish reversal.

If price close more than 1% above the reversal, then, it is very likely that price will come back and test it.
If price close less than 1%, then it’s possible price will continue to the upside without testing it.

[CGETrading]

Price elected the major daily bullish reversal, so we are now officially in a bull market, at least on a daily time frame. Price stopped at the top of the cycle and we are probably heading back down to re-test the bullish reversal from this point forward.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

8 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Price elected the major daily bullish reversal, so we are now officially in a bull market, at least on a daily time frame

GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

XAU broke above a key level of resistance overnight before upward momentum cooled in the Asia-Pacific session. Bulls may ease off the gas here and take some profits. If so, a pullback to the just-breached resistance level may act as support and give bulls a “staging ground” for their next push higher. The November high at 1877.15 is a likely target. However, if a deeper pullback occurs, a move down to the rising 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) may be on the cards.

GOLD DAILY CHART

Chart created with TradingView

 

Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com. 20th Jan 2022

[CGETrading]

Now there is nothing stopping price from reaching the 1870 level.

We should see a strong move to the upside in the coming days.

[CGETrading]

Note: There will be a maximum of 3 time units to the downside from the high before the next rally.

[MongiIG]

1 hour ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Now there is nothing stopping price from reaching the 1870 level.

We should see a strong move to the upside in the coming days.

 

58 minutes ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Note: There will be a maximum of 3 time units to the downside from the high before the next rally.

Gold

The uptrend has been given new life with yesterday’s bounce, which has seen the price push to $1840 for the first time in a month. This run of higher highs and higher lows continues to support a more bullish view, putting the November highs near $1860 into view.

Tuesday’s low at $1806 would need to be breached to the downside to provide a short-term negative outlook, as this would end the run of higher lows witnessed over the past seven weeks.

Source: ProRealTime

 

Chris Beauchamp | IG Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 20 January 2022 

[CGETrading]

Price have reached the reversals, a dip below 1824 will present great buying opportunity. 

[CGETrading]

15 Min TD Sequential 13 warns for a potential bottom is due.

[MongiIG]

Gold rally on hold

Gold's rally is taking a short-term break, having sliced through the November-to-January resistance line and risen above the early January high at $1832 earlier in the week. Together with last week’s high at $1829 it is offering short-term support.

Further down the breached three-month resistance line comes in at $1824. While above $1824, further upside remains in the pipeline with the November peak at $1877 representing a possible upside target.

Source: ProRealTime

 

Chris Beauchamp | IG Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: 21 January 2022