Gold heading into 2022 (Cyclical Analysis)

[CGETrading]

Price is trading above the downtrend line and is currently using it as support.

We could see a move up from this level as it aligns with cyclical support as well.

Edited January 24, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

Gold

The gold price spent the past two sessions consolidating after its mid-week gains, but the higher high is still intact. A renewed push higher brings $1860 into view, and then on to $1875.

Having cleared trendline resistance from the November high, the next line to watch comes in around $1850, marking trendline resistance from the May peak.

Source: ProRealTime

 

 

Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 January 2022

[CGETrading]

1 hour ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Price is trading above the downtrend line and is currently using it as support.

We could see a move up from this level as it aligns with cyclical support as well.

 

[MongiIG]

Trading a Potential Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Russia and Ukraine have technically been at war since 2014, but tensions on their shared border have risen sharply recently, with reports from the region suggesting that a full-scale war could erupt at any minute.

By Sage Anderson.

 

Impact on Global Stock Markets

Based on a comprehensive study conducted by Mark Armbruster, historical returns in the stock market have actually been higher during the periods that encompass large-scale military conflicts, as compared to an “average” year, as illustrated in the chart below.

Source: CFA Institute, Mark Armbruster

 

Impact on the Energy Sector

Notably, crude oil prices have already ripped higher in recent weeks, and recently notched a 7-year high.

Since Dec. 1, crude oil has rallied roughly 30%, rising from about $65/barrel, all the way above $85/barrel. At least a portion of that rally has to be attributed to rising tensions on the shared border between Russia and Ukraine.

 

Impact on Currency Markets

The Russian ruble has dropped near all-time lows in recent weeks on fears that Russia will indeed order a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

And if a full-scale war does erupt, it’s almost certain that the ruble will lose additional value.

Source: Yahoo!Finance

For the full article: luckbox

[MongiIG]

Hi @Carl-Gustav

What is your view and analysis for gold today ?

 

Gold rally likely to continue while above $1829

Following last week’s surge to $1848, gold's rally took a breather until yesterday when it resumed its ascent.

The current January high at $1848 is thus back in the frame, a rise above which would open the way for the November peak at $1877 to be reached next. This bullish view will remain valid as long as the price of gold stays above the 14 January high and 21 January low at $1829.

Only a slip through $1829 would neutralise the current bullish outlook and put the intersection point of the January support line and the breached three-month resistance line at $1821 on the cards.

Source: ProRealTime

 

IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 25 January 2022 

[CGETrading]

2 hours ago, MongiIG said:

Hi @Carl-Gustav

What is your view and analysis for gold today ?

 

Gold rally likely to continue while above $1829

Following last week’s surge to $1848, gold's rally took a breather until yesterday when it resumed its ascent.

The current January high at $1848 is thus back in the frame, a rise above which would open the way for the November peak at $1877 to be reached next. This bullish view will remain valid as long as the price of gold stays above the 14 January high and 21 January low at $1829.

Only a slip through $1829 would neutralise the current bullish outlook and put the intersection point of the January support line and the breached three-month resistance line at $1821 on the cards.

Source: ProRealTime

 

IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 25 January 2022 

Gold is consolidating awaiting the FED interest rate decision. 

From a technical perspective we are still trading within the daily cycle (blue channel), while resistance is sloping down (red line). We need to break and close above resistance before a push to the 1870 level becomes possible.

The nearest major bearish reversal stands at 1814.10, this presents a pretty wide trading range from where we currently are: 1838. January 27th is a panic cycle, meaning that we could see an abrupt move with lots of volatility that day.

[MongiIG]

1 minute ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Gold is consolidating awaiting the FED interest rate decision

 

1 hour ago, Carl-Gustav said:

From a technical perspective we are still in the daily cycle (blue channel), while resistance is sloping down (red line). We need to break and close above resistance before a push to the 1870 level becomes possible.

The nearest major bearish reversal stands at 1814.10, this presents a pretty wide trading range from where we currently are: 1838. January 27th is a panic cycle, meaning that we could see an abrupt move with lots of volatility that day.

Thanks for sharing!

[MongiIG]

 

Thanks for sharing your analysis on gold, promoted to our picks!

All the best - MongiIG

[CGETrading]

1 hour ago, MongiIG said:

 

Thanks for sharing your analysis on gold, promoted to our picks!

All the best - MongiIG

Thank you,

Edited January 25, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[CGETrading]

We are now trading above resistance.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

5 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

 

 

All the best - MongiIG

[MongiIG]

Gold Price Eyes November High After Clearing Monthly Opening Range.

 

GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART

Source: Trading View

• The broader outlook for the price of gold has become relative flat as the 50-Day SMA ($1805) and 200-Day SMA ($1805) continue to converge with one another, and the precious metal may trade within a defined range as it tracks the price action from the fourth quarter of 2021.
• The price of gold appears to be on track to test the November high ($1877) after clearing the opening range for January, but need a break/close above the $1859 (23.6% retracement) region to bring the $1876 (50% retracement) area on the radar.
• A break above the November high ($1877) opens up the Fibonacci overlap around $1916 (38.2% expansion) to $1929 (23.6% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around $1989 (78.6% retracement).
• However, failure to test the break/close above the $1859 (23.6% retracement) region may push the price of gold back towards the $1837 (38.2% retracement) to $1847 (100% expansion) area, with a move below the Fibonacci overlap around $1816 (61.8% expansion) to $1829 (38.2% expansion) bringing the monthly low ($1779) on the radar.

 

Written by David Song, Currency Strategist. 26th Jan 2022. DailyFX

[CGETrading]

Gold makes fresh #Leg 1 to the downside while electing the MAJOR bearish reversal of 1836.10. The nearest bearish reversals starts at 1814.10 and presents the current trading range.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

13 hours ago, Carl-Gustav said:

Gold makes fresh #Leg 1 to the downside while electing the MAJOR bearish reversal of 1836.10. The nearest bearish reversals starts at 1814.10 and presents the current trading range.

Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 27 January 2022 

Gold

The continued bounce in gold has come under pressure with a reversal towards trendline support in the wake of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

If trendline support is broken then we look towards $1790 as a possible area of support, and then on towards $1765.

A bounce from the trendline could yet see the price resume its move higher, back towards $1850.

Source: ProRealTime

[MongiIG]

Gold’s drop out of bear flag formation eyes $1759 to $1753 region

Following this week’s surge to a two-month high at $1854 on the back of rapidly declining equity markets, the price of gold has been in free fall ever since equities stabilised.

Yesterday’s slip out of its two-month bear flag formation puts the November and December lows at $1759 to $1753 firmly back into the frame.

On the way down sits the early January low at $1783. Immediate bearish pressure is to be maintained while the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and 18 January low at $1803 to $1806 cap.

Further minor resistance consists of the 22 October, 26 November and 17 December highs at $1814 to $1816.

Source: ProRealTime

 

IG Analyst | Publication date: Friday 28 January 2022

[MongiIG]

Gold Outlook: How Would Gold React to a Negative US Jobs (NFP) Release?

 

Tomorrow’s US Labor Report (NFP) is now expected to show that the US jobs market contracted in January due to the Omicron spread and subsequent lockdown. Wednesday’s private payroll report (ADP) surprised some in the market and turned negative for the first time in a year with jobs losses led by the service sector. This is now expected to be the case in Friday’s NFP release although official market estimates are still suggesting jobs market growth in the first month of 2022. While one month’s worth of jobs data will not sway the Federal Reserve from changing its stance of hiking rates and kickstarting quantitative tightening, it will be noted and traders should be aware of any official Fed speak post-release. Any hint of slowing down, or reducing the number of rate hikes will give the precious metal a boost, in the short-term at least.

Market professionals will have factored in the Omicron effect into market prices but a contracting US jobs market will likely make front-page headlines in the weekend press. With gold’s fortune still tied to the US dollar and underlying US interest rates, anything that can move these markets, however short the timeframe, will need to be closely followed.

The recent sharp sell-off in gold has returned the precious metal back into a well-defined trading between $1,763/oz. and $1,837/oz. with any breakouts from this range pulled back quickly. Volatility remains low – using the Average True Range indicator – while gold is neither oversold or overbought. Maybe a burst of volatility post-NFP on Friday will give traders an opportunity within the previously mentioned range.

GOLD (XAU/USD) DAILY PRICE FEBRUARY 3, 2022

 

Feb 3, 2022 |  Nick Cawley, Strategist. DailyFX

[CGETrading]

Today Russia attacked Ukraine and market have jumped another 400 pips.

The MIDAS Top/Bottom finder indicator is warning for a Temporary High since there are only 5% fuel left in the trend. We are probably going to reach 100%/burnout by the end of today.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GOLD PRICE DAILY CHART

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Spot gold smashed June 2021 highs and now challenges the January swing high at 1959.45. We are likely to see whipsawing price action throughout the day as news flows tug at market movements.

Full article on DailyFX

[CGETrading]

The MIDAS Top/Bottom Finder burned out at 100% and the market fell approximately 600 pips. A Temporary High is now in place.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Carl-Gustav

[MongiIG]

23 minutes ago, Carl-Gustav said:

The MIDAS Top/Bottom Finder burned out at 100%

Hi @Carl-Gustav

The MIDAS Top/Bottom Finder does it predict the top or bottom in an accelerated trend ?

In your view will gold still be bullish since it has reached the 100% or it will retrace lower.

[CGETrading]

23 minutes ago, MongiIG said:

Hi @Carl-Gustav

The MIDAS Top/Bottom Finder does it predict the top or bottom in an accelerated trend ?

In your view will gold still be bullish since it has reached the 100% or it will retrace lower.

Hi @MongiIG

That is correct, it predicts the end of a market sentiment: Top or Bottom. The key to understand the Top/Bottom finder is to acknowledge that something DIFFERENT than what is occurring will happen at 100% burnout.

Gold in my view is still bullish, at least on the weekly level from a cyclical perspective. The Blue lines on the chart represents cyclical support (and resistance) as well as the market ANGLE that we are in, right now. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Carl-Gustav