Jump to content

Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil Prices Gain Ahead of NFPs. Where to for USD/CAD, WTI?


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

CANADIAN DOLLAR, USD/CAD, CRUDE OIL, WTI, NON-FARM PAYROLLS, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TALKING POINTS:

  • Canadian Dollar soared with rising crude oil prices on Thursday
  • All eyes are on incoming jobs data from the United States, Canada
  • USD/CAD wedged breakout in focus as WTI clears key resistance
Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil Prices Gain Ahead of NFPs. Where to for USD/CAD,  WTI?

The Canadian Dollar was one of the best-performing G10 currencies against the US Dollar on Thursday. This was not too much of a surprise given that the energy-sensitive Loonie tracked a rise in WTI crude oil prices overnight. Oil closed at its highest since November 17th, surging 3.2% in the best daily performance in a month.

There did not appear to be a single catalyst for the push higher in WTI, but rather a few developing themes. Recently, colder-than-average temperatures throughout the northern United States and Canada have been threatening supply disruptions. This is as American oil stockpiles have been on the decline in recent weeks. Furthermore, there are concerns about OPEC+ output hike promises.

According to data from Bloomberg, the oil-producing cartel added only 90k barrels per day in December. Hikes by Saudi Arabia were offset by declines in Nigeria and Libya. Members are planning to raise output by 400k barrels per day in the coming months. As such, markets are likely pricing in some doubt as to whether or not OPEC+ could commit to its goals.

USD/CAD one-week implied volatility is at its highest in almost one month. This could be explained by incoming jobs data from the United States and Canada to wrap up this week. US non-farm payrolls will be particularly watched given the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish pivot. Better-than-expected labor market data may underscore hawkish monetary policy bets, which may dent the sentiment-sensitive commodity. This could leave USD/CAD pointing higher in the near term.

CANADIAN DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD finds itself testing the floor of a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation. Confirming the push lower may open the door to resuming the near-term downtrend since late December. Such an outcome may place the focus on rising support from October, opening the door for the dominant uptrend to resume course.

USD/CAD 4-HOUR CHART

Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil Prices Gain Ahead of NFPs. Where to for USD/CAD, WTI?

Chart Created Using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WTI crude oil is attempting to confirm a breakout above the 78.24 – 79.15 inflection zone. That has exposed the November 16th high at 81.78. However, negative RSI divergence continues to persist as prices touch higher highs. This is a telltale sign of fading upside momentum, which can at times precede a turn lower. If prices turn lower, keep a close eye on the 50-period Simple Moving Average for potential support.

WTI 4-HOUR CHART

Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil Prices Gain Ahead of NFPs. Where to for USD/CAD, WTI?

Chart Created Using TradingView

Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 7th Jan 2022.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • GX Uranium ETF Commodity Elliott Wave Analysis The GX URA ETF, also known as the Global X Uranium ETF, tracks the performance of companies in the uranium industry. This ETF offers investors a diversified portfolio that includes firms involved in uranium mining, exploration, and production worldwide. As nuclear power gains recognition as a cleaner energy alternative, the demand for uranium is expected to rise, making the GX URA ETF an attractive option for investors looking to benefit from the sector's growth. Price completed the bearish corrective cycle from May 2024 in August of the same year and the commodity has followed with rapid rallies to confirm it’s in another bullish phase. The commodity is now expected to extend above the May 2024 high to reach its highest price in over a decade. Long Term Analysis From the long-term view, GX URA appears to be in a bullish corrective cycle. Between February 2011 to March 2020, the ETF fell consistently making lower lows and lower highs reminiscent of an impulse wave structure. price has been correcting the long-term bearish run since the low of March 2020. From March 2020, the price completed an impulse wave sequence for wave A (circled) of the primary degree in November 2021. Afterward, it made a corrective pullback for wave B (circled) which ended in July 2022. From there an impulse wave was completed for wave (1) of C (circled) in May 2024 and a pullback followed for wave (2) as the daily chart shows. The current rally from the 5th of August 2024 is expected to be wave 1 of (3). Wave 1 is incomplete. Thus, there is a lot of room for buyers to keep pushing the long-term recovery. H4 Chart Analysis On the H4 chart, the price is currently in wave ((iii)) of 1 and could extend higher before pullback for ((iv)) where buyers will like to buy again. Traders can look for buying opportunities from the dip when the price completes wave ((iv)) or wave 2 in the near term. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • NEE Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge NextEra Energy Inc., (NEE) Daily Chart NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave 5. DIRECTION: Upside in {iii} of 5. DETAILS: We are looking at a potential upside target for wave 5 at 100$, as we are now trading above TraingLevel8 at 80$. NextEra Energy Inc., (NEE) 1H Chart NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave (v) of {iii}. DIRECTION: Upside in wave (v). DETAILS: Looking for upside in wave (v) as we seem to have broken the triangle in wave (iv). We have 1.618 {iii} vs. {i} at 89$ which could be an upside target, especially considering 88$ will be a profit taking number. This Elliott Wave analysis of NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) outlines both the daily and 1-hour chart structures, highlighting the current trends and possible future price movements. * NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* On the daily chart, NEE is progressing within an impulsive motive wave, specifically in Wave 5. The stock is currently moving higher within Wave {iii} of 5. With the stock now trading above TradingLevel8 at $80, the next upside target for Wave 5 is around $100. This is a critical level, as the stock has shown strong bullish momentum, breaking key resistance levels. Traders should look for continued upside movement, particularly as it approaches this psychological level of $100. * NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1H Chart* On the 1-hour chart, NEE is in the final stages of Wave (v) of {iii}, having recently broken out of a triangle pattern that formed during Wave (iv). The next target for Wave (v) is around $89, which coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of {iii} vs {i}. Additionally, $88 could serve as a profit-taking level due to its proximity to this Fibonacci extension target. With the triangle break and continued upside momentum, NEE is expected to see further gains in the short term, especially with $89 acting as the next key resistance. Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • BHARAT ELECTRICALS – BEL (1D Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Larger Degree Trend Higher (Intermediate degree, orange) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Minute Wave ((ii)) Navy Details: Minute Wave ((iii)) Navy of Minor Wave 5 Grey is now progressing higher against 229. Alternatively Wave 5 Grey completed above 342. Bullish traders please exercise caution. No change. Invalidation point: 229 Bharat Electricals Daily Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: Bharat Electricals Elliott Wave Counts on daily chart is indicting Minor Wave 5 Grey pushing higher through 350 levels, going forward. Prices must stay above 229, Minor Wave 4 Grey termination, for the bullish count to hold true. Bharat Electricals has been rallying since January 2023 after printing lows around 85 mark. The above progressive rally has unfolded as an impulse with Minor Waves 1 through 5 marked. Minor Wave 4 terminated around 229 on June 04, 2024 and since then bulls are pushing through Minor Wave 5.  Further within Minor Wave 5 Grey. Minute Waves ((i)) and ((ii)) seems to be in place around 330 and 270 respectively. If correct, prices should ideally stay above 270 and continue higher as Minute Wave ((iii)) unfolds. Alternate Elliot Wave count suggests Wave 5 Grey is in place around 330.   BHARAT ELECTRICALS – BEL (4H Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Larger Degree Trend Higher (Intermediate degree, orange) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Minute Wave ((ii)) Navy Details: Minute Wave ((iii)) Navy of Minor Wave 5 Grey is now progressing higher against 229. Furthermore, Minuette Waves (i) and (ii) are complete and (iii) Orange should ideally push through 320 levels. Alternatively Wave 5 Grey completed above 342. Invalidation point: 229 Bharat Electricals 4H Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: Bharat Electricals 4H is highlighting Minuette degree sub waves within Minute Wave ((i)) and ((ii)) and further. The lower degree Elliott Wave counts suggest Minute Wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) Orange, terminating around 270 mark. Minute Wave ((iii)) is progressing against 270 at the time of writing. Conclusion: Bharat Electricals is progressing higher towards 350 at least, as Minute Wave ((iii)) unfolds within Minor Wave 5 Grey, going forward. Elliott Wave Analyst: Harsh Japee Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us