Jump to content

Supportive USD Fundamentals and DXY Setup Ahead of FOMC


Recommended Posts

US DOLLAR AND DXY ANALYSIS:

  • USD Fundamentals look supportive ahead of FOMC - safe-haven and liquidity
  • Dollar Index (DXY) positioning only slightly lighter after sizeable dollar sell-off
  • Key DXY technical levels ahead of the FOMC meeting and presser
Dollar / TL Rises to 7.50 Before FOMC! — ieconomy.io

US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTALS: USD SUPPORTED AHEAD OF FOMC MEETING

The US dollar has experienced a ‘V-shaped’ recovery after the dollar sell-off when CPI reached 7% - the hottest US inflation print in nearly 40 years. The drop has been viewed by many as the result of a bullish disappointment as expectations of a surging dollar dropped sharply.

Currently, the dollar, via proxy (US Dollar Index - DXY), trades above levels witnessed before the sell-off, leaving the door open for more bullish disappointment. However, the dollar looks to be supported by the recent Russia-US tensions over Ukraine due to its safe haven appeal and liquidity. Additionally, oil continues to trade close to its recent high which has the effect of stoking inflation expectations and, by extension, fosters a greater pace of rate hikes from the Fed with the possibility of initiating quantitative tightening (QT) sooner than originally expected.

FOMC Preview:

The pace of rate hikes and end date of quantitative easing have often been points of interest in previous meetings however, the focus of today’s meeting may be skewed more towards the start date of QT, the process whereby the Federal Reserve Bank reduces its balance sheet and effectively tightens financial conditions.

Earlier this month Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed President) alluded to a faster rate of QT by saying that she “would prefer to adjust the policy rate gradually and move into balance-sheet reductions earlier than we did in the last cycle.”

Supportive USD Fundamentals and DXY Setup Ahead of FOMC

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

 

DOLLAR POSITIONING SOMEWHAT UNCHANGED AFTER SELL-OFF

The most recent CFTC data via the commitment of traders’ report shows a minor reduction in DXY net-long positioning. The net-long positioning could suggest that institutions, hedge funds and large speculators remain bullish on the value of the Greenback although, the level of positioning is not as high as in the June ’18 - June ’19 run up.

DXY Line Chart with CoT (DXY) Net Positioning Overlay

Supportive USD Fundamentals and DXY Setup Ahead of FOMC

Source: Refinitiv, CFTC, Cot Report

Find out what the CoT report is and why its useful to traders

KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS (DXY)

The DXY weekly chart is great for helping identify key levels over longer periods of time which tend to be helpful when analyzing multiple time frames. The key 38.2% Fib of the 2020 – 2022 move provided support for the dollar amid the recent sell-off causing prices to rise thereafter. A brief break below trendline support resulted in current price action advancing for 2 weeks in a row should we end this week on a positive note.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart

Supportive USD Fundamentals and DXY Setup Ahead of FOMC

Source: IG, prepared by Richard Snow

The daily chart highlights more granular price action and levels of interest. The most relevant level of resistance comes in at the 50% Fib level (9655) – which kept DXY at bay over the latter stages of 2021. A break and hold above 9655 may signal an attempt at 9780 before the 61.8% Fib at 9830 comes into focus.

However, the potential for USD bullish disappointment remains as market participants will scrutinize every word from Fed president, Jerome Powell later today. Any material changes to the current hawkish narrative/tone could see DXY shoot lower towards 9582 before testing trendline support and the 9548 level thereafter.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart

Supportive USD Fundamentals and DXY Setup Ahead of FOMC

Source: IG, prepared by Richard Snow

 

 

Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com. 26th Jan 2022.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • While major memecoins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have struggled, Floki ($FLOKI) has quietly gained 7% in recent weeks. Despite a market downturn, this rise highlights the strength behind Floki Inu price, driven by its dedicated community and smart strategies. Bullish Pennant Breakout After a strong rally earlier this year, Floki entered a period of consolidation, forming a bullish pennant pattern. This setup often signals a coming upward move. Now that the pennant has broken, many expect another bullish wave like before. What’s Fueling Floki’s Success? Floki’s community backing and new collaborations in late 2024 are driving its rise. These efforts have helped solidify its position in the memecoin market, giving it resilience in tough times. FLOKI Price Outlook for 2024 Currently, Floki is trading at 63% below its all-time high. But with ongoing developments and market shifts, it could see another surge. Predictions suggest it could hit $0.000500 by year’s end, though risks remain, with a potential low around $0.0000999. Floki’s resilience and strategic growth make it one to watch for investors looking to capitalize on the next big memecoin wave!    
    • Corn Elliott Wave Analysis Corn prices have experienced a notable rebound, rising approximately 14% since the late August 2024 low. This upward movement serves as a corrective phase against the broader decline that began in May 2024. While the short-term outlook suggests further upside potential, the medium-term analysis leans towards a bearish continuation, with prices expected to settle below the $475 mark. Daily Chart Analysis The prevailing bearish trend in corn began in April 2022. However, this decline appears to be corrective rather than impulsive, indicating a more complex wave structure. Unless we witness an impulsive recovery, the current upward movement is likely temporary and should reverse soon. Analyzing the price action from the April 2022 high reveals a double zigzag pattern at the cycle degree. The decline from $475 is identified as an impulse wave, specifically forming wave (A) of Y (circled) within the larger cycle wave y. The ongoing bounce is classified as wave (B) of Y (circled), which ideally needs to cap below $478 to validate the current Elliott Wave count.   H4 Chart Analysis Delving into the H4 chart, the recent upward momentum appears to have completed wave A of (B). Confirmation of wave B's completion will occur if the price breaks above the wave A high. Should this happen, we can expect wave C of (B) to target the 450 level. While this short-term perspective supports a corrective bounce, it is essential to recognize that the broader bearish sequence remains incomplete. This suggests that the long-term downward trend could reassert itself following the top of wave (B). In summary, the Elliott Wave analysis of corn indicates a current corrective bounce that is likely to be short-lived. Traders should be cautious as the overall bearish trend persists, with the possibility of renewed downward movement looming as we approach critical resistance levels. Keeping an eye on wave structures and key price levels will be crucial for anticipating market shifts in the coming weeks. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • TATA STEEL – TATASTEEL (1D Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend (Minor degree, Grey)  Mode: Corrective  Structure: Impulse within Larger degree Zigzag  Position: Minor Wave 2 Grey   Details: Major top might be in place at 185 mark. Further the stock has dropped as an impulse to 142, terminating potential Minor Wave 1 Grey. Wave 2 Grey also could be complete just below 160 mark; if correct Wave 3 Grey is now underway. Alternatively, Wave 2 Grey might still push through 170 levels. Invalidation point: 185 TATA Steel Daily Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: TATA Steel daily chart suggests a major top is in place around 185 mark on June 14, 2024. It is marked as Minor Wave 5 Grey of Intermediate Wave (5) Orange. Furthermore, the stock has carved an impulse Wave 1 Grey lower towards 142 and is unfolding potential Wave 2 Grey at the time of writing. The stock terminated its Intermediate Wave (4) Orange around 83 mark in June 2022. Since then, the rally can be sub divided in Minor Waves 1 through 5, which completed around 185 highs. Minor Wave 2 unfolded as a combination while Wave 3 was extended. If the above proposed wave structure holds well, TATA Steel is progressing within a counter trend zigzag at Minor degree at least. Also note that Minor Wave 1 is in place around 142 while Minor Wave 2 is either complete at 155 or could extend through 170 mark. TATA STEEL – TATASTEEL (4H Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend (Minor degree, Grey)  Mode: Corrective  Structure: Impulse within Larger degree Zigzag  Position: Minor Wave 2 Grey   Details: Major top might be in place at 185 mark. Further the stock has dropped as an impulse to 142, terminating potential Minor Wave 1 Grey. Wave 2 Grey also could be complete just below 160 mark; if correct Wave 3 Grey is now underway. Alternatively, Wave 2 Grey might still push through 170 levels within a Minuette (a)-(b)-(c) orange. Invalidation point: 185 TATA Steel 4H Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: TATA Steel 4H chart reveals the recent wave count since 185 high registered in June 2024. The stock has unfolded an impulse through 142, terminating Minor Wave 1 Grey and is now progressing within Minor Wave 2 Grey. If correct, Minor Wave 3 Grey should be underway soon. Conclusion: TATA Steel is progressing within a counter trend Minor Wave 2 Grey, which could extend through 170 levels. The stock should then turn lower as Minor Wave 3 Grey resumes. Technical Analyst : Harsh Japee Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us