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Market sentiment has been looking a little more unstable as we head towards the weekend, with this week’s UK inflation and budget providing a shift in focus after last week’s US CPI-led rally. The Asian session was largely downbeat, following a similarly negative session in the US and Europe, with the DAX providing the only gainer yesterday. Overnight data has seen UK Gfk consumer confidence beat estimates in rising to -44. Similarly, an outperformance on the retail sales figure brought a monthly figure of 0.6%, in turn raising the yearly comparative to -6.1%. Looking ahead, a lack of data today does shift the focus onto central bankers, with Lagarde (ECB), Nagel (Bundesbank), Mann (BoE), and Haskel (FOMC) all speaking.

 

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The week begins with markets in a cautious frame of mind following the news that Covid outbreaks in China had resulted in several areas imposing curfews to control outbreaks. The reports pushed down indices in Asia, while oil prices also slipped. Futures in Europe and the US have also weakened, following on from a better end to last week on Friday. Reports over the weekend suggesting the UK government was looking at developing a closer Swiss-style relationship with the EU have prompted alarm in Brexiteer circles. With the week truncated by Thanksgiving in the US, we may see some reluctance to push this risk rally further in the short term. 

 

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European markets face two days of indecision now that the US has gone off for their Thanksgiving holiday. Stocks managed to push higher yesterday evening on Wall Street, as investors latched on to hints in the Fed minutes that policymakers were looking at slowing the pace of rate hikes. The Fed still thinks that the risk of a recession is finely balanced, but with more rate hikes on the cards it still seems sensible to expect 2023 to feature more economic pain. China's Covid cases have hit a record high, which casts doubt on hopes that this economy will go through a full-blown reopening soon, and another tough winter seems to lie ahead. Oil prices have continued to fall, reflecting ongoing recession fears. Today is a quiet day for most markets, with just the German IFO index on the agenda for the day. 

 

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In a quiet session in Asia, Australian stocks were able to move higher, but other indices declined, as a rise in China's Covid cases to another record high dented sentiment. This pushes hopes of a full reopening of the Chinese economy even further away. Thin liquidity across the board meant that moves were fairly limited, and that is unlikely to change much today, given that the US is on a half day. With the last full week of November trading drawing to a close, investors will be asking whether equities can find fresh reasons to continue their recent recovery, aware that the Fed is still committed to raising rates well into next year, while watching an oil price that remains firmly under pressure and seems to point towards a recession in 2023.

 

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