Jump to content

Key commodities being affected by the Russia-Ukraine crisis


Recommended Posts

In this article we take a look at some of the key commodities (gold, oil, platinum, palladium and natural gas) affected by the current geopolitical turmoil, and how they are reacting right now.

bg_mining_commodities_1358413.JPGSource: Bloomberg
 Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 24 February 2022 

Following the announcement of fresh sanctions on Russia by the West, Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has initiated an attack on the Ukraine which is seeing elevated volatility in the market.

In this article we take a look at some of the key commodities (gold, oil, platinum, palladium and natural gas) affected by the current geopolitical turmoil, and how they are reacting right now.

Russia’s percentage share of key global commodity production in 2021

Screenshot%202022-02-24%20at%2012.41.39.Source: IG

 

The above graphic shows the percentage share of global production from Russia in 2021, as sourced from Refinitiv workspace. While we have seen base metals like aluminum and nickel rallying to new highs, Russia’s contribution to global output appears less signficant in this department when compared to diamonds, precious metals and energies.

Precious metals

The country is a key producer of platinum group metals (PGMs) most significantly palladium (40% of global production in 2021).

Russia is also the third largest gold producer in the world accounting for roughly 10% of global production. Gold prices are being further elevated by increased safe haven demand through the conflict.

palladium%202402.pngSource: ProRealTime

 

The price of the march contract for palladium has moved aggressively through the $2400/oz mark to test resistance at $2610/oz. A close above this level could unlock further gains with $2740 the next upside resistance target from the move.

palladium%202%2024022.pngSource: ProRealTime

 

Since breaking out of a bullish triangle consolidation, the price of platinum has pushed through resistance at $1075/oz and $1105/oz. Pullbacks within the new uptrend consider long entry with $1150 the next upside resistance target from the move.

gold%202402.pngSource: ProRealTime

 

Safe haven appeal is seeing gold now move to test the upper resistance level ($1960/oz) of the broad range which has been in place for the last two years or so. A break above $1960/oz could see $1995 and $2070/oz as further resistance targets from the move.

Diamonds

Russia is also believed to have the largest deposits of diamonds in the world and is the largest producer of rough diamonds.

Oil and gas

In terms of energies in recent years, gas supplies have accounted for 17% of the global total and nearly a third of supply to Europe. The country is an ally of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which has been keeping oil supply throttled, despite increasing demand through an economic rebound from the pandemic.

brent%202402.pngSource: ProRealTime

 

The long-term trend for Brent crude remains firmly up, with the short-term momentum pushing the price to our upper channel resistance target of $100.60/barrel.

Pullbacks within this uptrend are considered buyable with a longer-term upside target of $119/barrel projected from a Fibonacci extension.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      20,128
    • Total Posts
      88,221
    • Total Members
      69,112
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Sherman_Charlie
    Joined 05/10/22 22:47
  • Posts

    • Stock Market SP 500, NASDAQ 100 NDX, Russell 2000 RUT. Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies. US Markets News Today: OPEC+ Agrees to Biggest Oil Production Cut Since Start of Pandemic/ reduce output by 2 million barrels. Elliott Wave Market Summary: The move upwards is a bear market corrective rally, how far it goes is the question and today I take a look a few possibilities  Elliott Wave count: Tracking two wave counts Day / Trend Trading Strategies: No Strategy Video Chapters 00:00 S&P500  16:15 NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 16:36 Russell 2000 (RUT)  21:45 Dow Jones (DJI) 24:35 End. Thanks for supporting! Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com    
    • Market data to trade on Thursday: Aussie Trade; Levi earnings With the upside risk for forecasts for the Australian trade data, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the long trade on the Aussie benchmark, the S&P ASX 200. Earnings out on Thursday include Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss.      
    • Dear All, On the September 22 I could not sell Presto automation stock $PRST.  I have reported that to IG helpdesk, had multiple calls etc. It is not obvious where this process is going and I need my refund money ASAP. I have sent the screenshots etc.
×
×
  • Create New...