Jump to content

Euro Price Latest – EUR/USD Slumps to 1.1000, EUR/GBP Hits a Near Six-Year Low


Recommended Posts

EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

  • EUR/USD continues to slide, will 1.1000 bring any relief?
  • US Job reports will act as the next, short-term driver.

Euro | Dollar: Euro falls to lowest since 2016 vs sterling, Aussie dollar  shines

The Euro is unable to buy a break at the moment with the single currency under pressure from a host of other major currencies. EUR/USD is now 1.1000, a low last seen in May 2020, while the Euro printed its lowest level against Sterling (0.8260) since July 2016. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are both hiking interest rates and looking to withdraw pandemic liquidity from their markets, the ECB is stuck and unlikely to raise interest rates until early 2023. The underlying shift in rate hike expectations over the past few weeks has weighed heavily on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP and will continue to do so in the months ahead.

 

The war in Eastern Europe is also pressing down on the Euro with Germany’s heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas seen as a negative for Europe’s largest economy. With energy prices sky-high, there are growing fears that the German economy may stall, bringing into doubt the ECB’s plan of reducing the zone’s dependence on quantitative easing. Inflation is also rife in Europe - as it is globally - and with slowing growth and rising inflation, the ECB needs to tread very carefully when looking to temper price pressures within the single block. Next Thursday’s ECB monetary policy meeting will be an event to follow closely.

Today’s US Jobs Report (NFP) will need to be followed, although its overall effect on the market is weakening due to the path of future US interest rate hikes being fairly well signposted. The US jobs market is tight and is expected to remain so for the immediate future.

For all market-moving data releases and events, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

EUR/USD is pressing down on 1.1000, a psychological level more than a pure technical level, and a confirmed break below here opens up the potential for a longer-term move all the way back down to the pre-pandemic double low at 1.0636.

Lessons For Becoming a Better Trader

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART – MARCH 4, 2022

Euro Price Latest – EUR/USD Slumps to 1.1000, EUR/GBP Hits a Near Six-Year Low

Retail trader data shows 68.93% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.22 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.65% higher than yesterday and 20.93% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.82% lower than yesterday and 12.06% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?

 

Mar 4, 2022 |  Nick Cawley, Strategist. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      23,593
    • Total Posts
      96,940
    • Total Members
      44,159
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    nguyetque
    Joined 01/12/23 13:36
  • Posts

    • Hi @THT Thanks for sharing great content. Have a Great Christmas and New Year All the best MongiIG
    • FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 remain bid as inflation slows Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 following a strong November. Source: Bloomberg  Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 01 December 2023 12:32 FTSE 100 ends month in positive territory The FTSE 100 slid to 7,383 on Thursday before reversing to the upside as inflation continues to weaken in the eurozone. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,494 capped and is doing so once more on Friday morning. Once overcome, the 17 November high at 7,516 will be in focus, together with the 7,535 November high. Minor support is found at the 21 November low at 7,446. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 continues to surge ahead as eurozone inflations weakens The DAX 40 continues to surge ahead as eurozone inflation came in weaker-than-expected on Thursday with the July peak at 16,532 being in sight. Minor resistance on the way up can be spotted at the 16,421 31 July low. Support below Friday’s intraday low at 16,236 is seen at Thursday’s 16,165 low. More significant support can be found between the August and September highs at 16,044 to 15,992. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 sees best November since 1980 The sharp November rally in the S&P 500 has lost upside momentum but the index nonetheless continues to trade in four-month highs as the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge came in as expected at 3% year-on-year in October. November was not only the best performing month for the S&P 500 this year but also the strongest November since 1980. Resistance is found at the November peak at 4,587, followed by the July peak at 4,607. While this week’s lows at 4,539 to 4,537 underpin, the short-term uptrend remains intact. Slightly further down sits potential support at the 4,516 mid-September high. Source: ProRealTime
    • If you want to succeed in this game you have to know and understand the rules - 99.9% of people don't, but of those a few % slip into the trading success net It's not my Intention to show you how to trade or make money - I'd be loathed to help some greedy wealthy person increase their wealth, through a easy trading method, but I'm happy to show you the TIME side of the markets, because I know hardly anyone will take note or use and it satisfies my "I tried to help them" lifes reflections etc Above I showed you Gann Square of 9 showing MONTHS on the SP500 and that lots of those turns on a monthly basis came out on KEY points on the Sq9 - namely the UP, DOWN, HORIZONTAL and DIAGONAL lines/points If you quickly study the chart below, you will see lots of times the EURUSD hit some of those points nicely, look at month 218 & 257 as examples - now scroll up and look where those 2 numbers are located on the Sq9 They are smack bang on key positions of that Sq9 chart - All I want to show you is how freely traded markets are somehow landing on pre-built number sequences over and over - not every one is a direct hit, but I'm sure you'd agree in the SP500 example above AND this EURUSD below its a canny coincidence! So, lets look at the EURUSD, because the Sq9 above resulted in too many options and you'd struggle to formulate a easy to use strategy from Gann used lots of differing Squares to calculate from, he used a Square of 12 (12x12 = 144) and we'll look at that for the EURUSD MONTHLY chart (Note ALL Gann's Squares where derived from the the pyramid's!)   We'll keep it simple and just use STATIC monthly cycles, here's a 12 month cycle (remember we are using Ganns Square 12 to base this all from) As you can see its quite effective, I've highlighted the 36 month cycle with THICK lines, because its resonating with the market pretty **** well and as you can see the Square of 144 is working really well with the EURUSD (All markets will work well with differing Squares, so its not a one size fits all thing) To save a huge amount of explaining, the square of 144 has principles within it that resonate with the sacred geometric solid of a PENTAGON and we know from mathematics, that a pentagram fits into a pentagon in the form of all its sides UNFOLDED, when these open arms/points hit the edge of a circle it creates a set point on that circle and you have 5 points of 72 degrees around that circle (Remember Pythagoras, he had a secret hidden order where the Pentagram was the symbol of the order! and he was a very very very clever person)  So IF, 72 (half of the Square of 12) is important then, harmonically related numbers to that 72 will also be Important, as in the chart above we've seen that 36 was In the chart below I've tided up the chart a little and added a 54 month cycle because 54 is an Internal angle of the pentagram, its also a Hurst cycle too - I also for visuals show basic Fibonacci cycles of 38/62/138/162 MONTHS  But as we can see 54 & 36 months  are definitely causing the EURUSD to sing to its tune - Remember these are STATIC cycles, the markets are NOT static, hence why its not perfect and exact Hopefully given you some food for thought - Remember you are VIEWING Time & Price action on a 2 Dimensional chart, Price & Time don't move in a 2 Dimensional fashion, Have a Great Christmas and New Year THT
×
×
  • Create New...
us