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Risk event for the week starting 14 March: Fed rate decision


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Had the Russian invasion of Ukraine not happened there would have been the debate as to whether the Federal Reserve would have restricted the Wednesday 16 March rate decision to just 50 basis points (bps).

 

 

Now, despite evidence of increasingly hot US economic data with inflation running at well over generation highs, the debate is whether the economy will withstand anything more than 25bps, because of the effects of the invasion.

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor caught up with Warren Venketas from Daily FX who discusses not the hike, because he is convinced it will be just a quarter point, but the surrounding rhetoric which, he says, is likely to be hawkish.

He looks at a trade around the Dollar Basket.

 

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