Jump to content

EUR/USD Forecast: Fading Euro Looks Ahead to Key Economic Data

Recommended Posts


  • War in Ukraine maintains grip on Euro.
  • U.S. and Euro zone inflation in focus.
  • IG Client Sentiment: Mixed.


With nothing substantial on the economic calendar today, we look ahead with anticipation to U.S. and Euro zone inflation data (see economic calendar below). With forecasts markedly higher for both regions, we may see further appreciation for the dollar and Euro respectively. This being said, with inflationary pressure mounting in the Euro zone due to the war in Ukraine, markets have been pricing in this higher figure for some time. I think a release in line with expectations may see a muted reaction in terms of Euro upside with a miss resulting in significant downside.

From the U.S. perspective, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will follow on Friday with some projecting figures higher than the 475K forecast. This will further reinforce the tight labour market within the U.S. and give provision to the aggressive Fed tightening outlook, leaving the door open for a softer Euro.


EUR/USD economic calendar

Source: DailyFX economic calendar



EUR/USD daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

After barely holding above the 1.1000 psychological support level last week, EUR/USD bears have slipped lower on Monday continuing the ascending triangle pattern (blue) breakout as mentioned in my previous analysis.

Price action now heads towards the key area of confluence at the long-term triangle support zone (black) which has held since 2016. A confirmed weekly candle close below could mark the beginning of a significantly weaker Euro.

Resistance levels:

  • 1.1138
  • 50-day EMA (blue)
  • 20-day EMA (purple)
  • 1.1000

Support levels:

  • Triangle support (black)
  • 1.0867 (March 2022 swing low)


IGCS shows retail traders are currently LONG on EUR/USD, with 65% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment however, recent changes in long and short positions have resulted in a mixed bias.



Mar 28, 2022 |  DailyFX
Warren Venketas, Analyst


Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • It is a consensus that Web3 wallets offer users whole control over their assets, ensure protection against unauthorized access, deliver seamless access to the growing world of blockchain services and more. However one quality that many participants are yet to tap fully is the earning opportunities they unlock. So in my exploration to access those juicy opportunities, I’ve discovered quite a few on Bitget wallet. Earned good rewards from the previous ZETA airdrop, and now in line with offering an unparalleled rewarding trading experience in Web3, Bitget Wallet has launched a massive airdrop for its ecosystem token BWB. Scheduled to last from March 18 to April 28, participants are invited to download Bitget Wallet app on their devices and claim BWB by participating in events through the app—the more tasks completed, the more points you gain. I just think that considering that 164m BWB points have already been issued over the period of 5 weeks, with one more week to go, no better time to hop on this opportunity than now especially with a welcome bonus of 50 $BWB points up for grabs!
    • this sounds like an amazing opportunity for users in the crypto world. It's important to approach futures trading competitions with caution, ensuring one's financial stability and a comprehensive understanding of the market. While the prizes are enticing, responsible trading remains the ultimate goal. Thanks for sharing such an intriguing event, I’ll definitely be taking a look at it ! 
    • As a newbie crypto trader, I dove headfirst into the world of futures trading on Bitget. Feeling overwhelmed by the charts and analysis, I discovered their copy trading platform. It was a revelation! Following the strategies of Bitget's elite traders, I learned the ropes while making real profits. Their expertise took the guesswork out of trading, allowing me to focus on understanding the market. This new Bitget Futures Elite Trader Selection Program is fantastic news. It incentivizes these top traders, giving them greater exposure, while also helping new users like myself identify proven performers. It's a win-win for everyone, and a huge step forward in making futures trading more accessible and successful for beginners. Thanks Bitget!    
  • Create New...