Jump to content

Crude Oil Forecast: Brent Crude Remains Under Pressure Despite Positive Open


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOC1) ANALYSIS

  • Markets await details around IEA stock release.
  • Yemen truce holds off supply concerns.
  • Shanghai lockdown stifles demand forecasts.

Crude Oil Forecast: Brent Crude Remains Under Pressure Despite Positive Open

CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude remains above the psychological $100/barrel level with the aid of a slightly weaker U.S. dollar this morning. Last week Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that its member states would contribute to another synchronized oil release to ease tight market conditions. This extended crude oil losses only a day after the U.S. declared its intentions to release 180MMbbls from its SPR.

Particulars of the IEA release are much anticipated by markets and could give bears additional impetus to weigh on crude prices. Markets have largely stayed indifferent to the IEA news until more clarity is provided. Relief from the supply side comes in the form of a truce between the UAE and the Houthi group to stop military activity on the Saudi-Yemen border.

Learn more about Crude Oil Trading Strategies and Tips in our newly revamped Commodities Module!

Demand side changes via lockdowns in China (most recently Shanghai) have also lowered oil forecasts as the nation continues to adopt a ‘zero tolerance’ policy.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BRENT CRUDE (LCOc1)DAILY CHART

brent crude daily chart

Chart prepared by Warren Venketas, IG

Hesitancy after last weeks sharp drop is evident from the small candle prints including Friday’s doji. This is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI)hovering around the midpoint 50 mark that favours neither bullish nor bearish momentum. Recent price action resembles a descending wedge with the horizontal support (red) and downward sloping trending (black) making up the pattern. Traditionally, the descending triangle points to downside continuation with a preceding downtrend however, brent crude displays a preceding uptrend leading into the descending triangle. Regardless, a breakout below triangle support could spark a further move lower.

Key resistance levels:

  • $120.50
  • Triangle resistance (black)
  • $109.03/20-day EMA (purple)
  • 50-day EMA (blue)

Key support levels:

  • $100
  • 100-day EMA (yellow)

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT BEARISH

IGCS shows retail traders are marginally NET LONG on Crude Oil, with 55% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment resulting in a short-term downside bias.

 

Apr 4, 2022 |   Warren Venketas, Analyst. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,617
    • Total Posts
      91,854
    • Total Members
      41,891
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Mhada
    Joined 23/03/23 08:10
  • Posts

    • #GBPCAD: Pullback From Key LevelGBPCAD reached a major horizontal resistance.The price has nicely reacted to that, forming a bearish engulfing candle on 4H time frame.I expect a retracement from the underlined structure.Goals: 1.68 / 1.677
    • #EURUSD: Important Breakout 🇪🇺🇺🇸   Bulls push 🟢EURUSD heavily after yesterday's Interest Rate Decision and FOMC. The price has successfully broken and closed above a solid horizontal supply cluster.   The next solid resistance that I see is 1.099 - 1.103 area. Probabilities will be high that it is the next goal for buyers.   For those, who missed entries, I strictly recommend waiting for a pullback first. I will post an update later on. For Additional confirmation use: Xmaster Formula MT4 Indicator
    • The Nasdaq’s gains are starkly contrasted with relatively weak performances this year from US index peers the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30), suggesting some sector rotation has occurred. Source: Bloomberg   Indices Nasdaq-100 S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Technical analysis  Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Monday 20 March 2023  The Nasdaq 100 index, after being out of favour in 2022, has managed to produce double digit price gains within the first quarter of 2023. These gains are starkly contrasted with relatively weak performances this year from US index peers the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30). The failure of smaller financial counters Silvergate, First Republic and Silicon Valley Banks, has sparked fears around a mini banking crisis prompting weakness in larger banking peers which make up some of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial index constituents. In turn there is a suggestion that we are now seeing some sector rotation by investors back into technology stocks found within the Nasdaq 100 index. Relative strength comparison: Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500   Source: IG The chart above shows a ratio comparison of the Nasdaq 100 (numerator) and the S&P500 (denominator) from the beginning of 2022 up until now (20 March 2023). The red trend line (arrow) highlights the downtrend in this ratio which reflects a significant underperformance of the Nasdaq against the S&P500 in 2022. The blue arrow highlights the upward trend of this ratio which began in early 2023. The upward trend now prevalent, highlights the Nasdaq 100’s outperformance of the S&P 500. Relative strength comparison: Nasdaq 100 vs Dow Jones Industrial Average   Source: IG Similarly, to our previous chart (Nasdaq100 / SP500) the above chart of the Nasdaq 100 (numerator) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (denominator) ratio highlights these same trends, i.e. in 2022 Nasdaq 100 consistently underperformed the Dow, while in 2023 that trend appears to have reversed. Year to date index moves compared   Source: IG Albeit from a lower base, the Nasdaq 100 has outperformed its benchmark peers the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average significantly in 2023. Nasdaq 100 – Technical analysis Source: IG As highlighted in a previous article, the 50-day simple moving average (50MA) (green line) has recently crossed above the 200-day simple moving average (200MA) (blue line). This moving average crossover is commonly referred to as the ‘golden cross’ in technical analysis terms. The suggestion is that it marks the beginning of a new longer-term uptrend in a market, in this case the Nasdaq 100. While we have seen some short-term gains to follow in the index, the Nasdaq 100 does now also trade in overbought territory. The overbought signal suggests that trend followers looking for long entry might be afforded an opportunity to do so through either a near term price pullback or sideways consolidation.   Source: IG The price break above resistance at 12350, now sees this level as possible support, should a pullback ensue. Traders supporting the long-term uptrend might look for long entry on a pullback to either this level or trend line (solid black line) support. Preferably a pullback would need to end with a bullish reversal (candle) pattern. In this scenario, 12900 and 13190 provide initial resistance targets, while a close below the reversal low might be used as a stop loss indication for the trade.
×
×
  • Create New...