Dollar Climbs as Fed Manages to Further Boost Rate Forecast, Yield Curve Corrects
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10/06/21 10:53
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Early Morning Call: CNH down as China CPI loses ground It is becoming more and more unlikely that China will meet its government target of average consumer prices at about 3% in 2023. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 09 June 2023 09:06 Indices overview US equity markets ended the session higher, with the S&P 500 entering bull market. APAC indices mostly rose overnight. It is becoming more and more unlikely that China will meet its government target of average consumer prices at about 3% in 2023. On the contrary, the risk of deflation is a growing concern. China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year (YoY), accelerating from a 0.1% rise in April, but missing the estimate of a 0.3% increase. Food price inflation, a key driver of CPI, slowed to 1.0% year-on-year from 2.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, food prices fell 0.7%. China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years. May PPI fell for an eighth consecutive month, down 4.6%. Macroeconomics The end of the week is very quiet in terms of macroeconomic data. Investors are already focussed on next week, with two big central bank meetings to come. First is the US rate decision on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Ahead of the Fed decision though, markets will get an update on US inflation. The consumer price index, due on Tuesday, is expected to fall to 4.7% YoY, following a 4.9% rise the previous month. The focus will be on core CPI, forecast to fall to 5.4% YoY, from 5.5% in April. Since the March headline CPI figure is below core CPI, the market fears the spread between the two indicators could be widening. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points, and again in July before pausing for the rest of the year. This is according to a poll conducted by Reuters which indicated that economists believe inflation across the single currency economies remains sticky. After 375 basis points (bp) of hikes over the past year, economic activity across the region has slowed, with Europe's biggest economy - Germany - and the eurozone as a whole falling into a winter recession. EVs General Motors announced it will adopt Tesla's North American charging plug standard. GM electric vehicle (EV) buyers will now be able to use the Tesla Supercharger network. A similar agreement had earlier been made with Ford which means now that three of the top EV sellers in the North American market have agreed on a standard for charging hardware. It could turn out to be a major win for Tesla, which invested heavily to deploy its fast-charging stations across North America. This agreement will have significant commercial and public policy implications. The Biden administration wanted to impose a rival "combined charging system". Now the alliance between Tesla, Ford and GM seriously challenges the White House's plans. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to. -
A relatively quiet week is heading towards its end, after a positive session in Asia that followed the lead set by Europe and the US. A rise in jobless claims bolstered the view that the Fed would leave policy on pause at its next meeting. However, rate hikes this week in Australia and Canada have unnerved investors, and so caution could well prevail over the first half of next week. Given that the coming week also includes ECB and BoJ decisions, plus US inflation figures, it promises to be full of potential volatility flashpoints.
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By tradinglounge · Posted
Analog Devices Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Analog Devices Inc., (ADI:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 9 June 23, ADI Stock Market Analysis: We were tracking the possibility of wave 2 to be complete as we had a clear three wave move into wave 2. We are starting to resume higher as we are looking for place longs on the way up. ADI Elliott Wave Count: Wave {i} of 3. ADI Technical Indicators: 20EMA as support. ADI Trading Strategy: Looking for upside, we need to break wave 1 in a five wave manner to have additional confirmation. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Analog Devices Inc., ADI: 4-hour Chart, 9 June 23 Analog Devices Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ADI Stock Market Analysis: Looking for further upside as we potentially complete wave (i) and (ii) with the red line acting as invalidation level. We broke the top of (i) as we seem to be in wave iv of some degree. ADI Elliott Wave count: Wave (iii) of {i}. ADI Technical Indicators: Above all averages. ADI Trading Strategy: Looking for five waves up into wave (iii).
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