Jump to content

US Dollar Technical Analysis: Watch EUR/USD, Setback Could Be Near


Recommended Posts

USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near long-term trend-line
  • EUR/USD rejected new lows on Thursday post-ECB
 

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: WATCH EUR/USD, SETBACK COULD BE NEAR

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading very near a trend-line dating to 2001. It only has the bare minimum connecting points to make it a trend-line, but the current rise towards testing the trend-line could become its first meaningful test and confirmation.

Given the duration of the trend-line a turn at any point from current levels (100.60) up to around 102 will be considered a test and validation of the trend-line. The buffer could extend higher if the DXY were to trade up and reverse hard on the monthly chart to close below the 100-102 area. The bottom line is that the DXY is in the warning zone for a reversal at a long-term threshold.

On Thursday, the Euro fell through the March 7 low (& 2016 trend-line) on a dovish ECB, but managed to close back above 10805 for the day and week (Thursday was effectively the last day of the week given the Good Friday holiday). The rejection to trade lower is seen as a potential catalyst this week for the Euro to bounce.

Given that the Euro makes up 57% of the DXY it of course has a significant impact on how the index moves. If the low from Thursday at 10757 holds then look for the Dollar Index to turn lower here in the days ahead.

The market is largely bearish the Euro, and it has been for good reason, but an overly bearish market that fails to break key levels with a catalyst is prone for a move back the other way. This could result in only a relatively small bounce, but the stage is set for a strong reaction.

A top-side reaction out of the Euro will at least dent the DXY to some degree, even if other currencies don’t follow suit in trading higher against the USD. The first level to watch on the downside is the top of the range it recently broke out of, it sits around the 99.41 level.

A hold of the top of the range will be important for the DXY if it to maintain a generally strong upward bias, as a decline into a range is effectively like falling into an air pocket and would be seen as leading to the other side of the range in the mid-97s.

If the DXY continues to press on higher in the days ahead, then look for trading to become more volatile as a queue that the trend is becoming unstable and may want to turn. Also, keep an eye on the March 2020 low at 10635 in EUR/USD as another major inflection point.

US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) WEEKLY CHART

dxy weekly chart

DXY DAILY CHART

dxy daily chart

DXY Charts by TradingView

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

eur/usd daily chart

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst. 18th April 2022. DailyFX

  • Like 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Staying stuck in gloomy bearish seasons has never been the right approach in the market, so when the market isn’t so favourable I tend to always explore various events to stay profitable. Events don’t get more fun and rewarding at same time than spinning events, so when I saw 100% Spin hot coins events on Bitget with Apple sets and other rewards up for grabs, I just had to quickly jump on it. Participation is pretty simple too, one just has to register, make a net deposit using deposit methods to get spins, trade copy or futures trading for more spins, then spin for the rewards. One exciting thing about the event is its extended duration, lasting from August 28 to September 25, giving participants ample time to spin and get incentivized. A fun and rewarding event if you ask me, only be sure to follow the rules to stay eligible.
    • Today, the U.S. Congress is making history by holding its first-ever hearing on decentralized finance (DeFi). This landmark event could have significant implications for the DeFi sector, including the price of Uniswap (UNI). Key Details of the Hearing Date and Time: The hearing will take place today at 10 a.m. ET. Focus: The session is titled “Decoding DeFi: Breaking Down the Future for Decentralized Finance.” Participants: The Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion will lead the discussion. Notable witness Rebecca Rettig, Chief Legal and Policy Officer at Polygon Labs, will be among those present. Impact on Uniswap Price Uniswap's price is currently showing a bullish reversal pattern, despite ongoing scrutiny from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With Uniswap's price approaching a crucial 139% breakout zone, the hearing could be a turning point. As of now, UNI is down 0.54% in the last 24 hours, trading at $6.62, according to Coinpedia Markets data. Why This Hearing Matters The hearing represents a significant shift in how DeFi is perceived by U.S. lawmakers. Republican Congressman French Hill has criticized the Biden-Harris Administration for using "rule-making and enforcement actions" that, he believes, stifle DeFi innovation. As the DeFi landscape in the U.S. is under intense scrutiny, Uniswap stands out as a major player, particularly since it attracted more U.S. users than other countries in August 2024, according to Statista data. Looking Ahead If the hearing results in a favorable policy shift, Uniswap's price could see a substantial increase. Market conditions will play a critical role, but if they remain favorable, Uniswap might be on the brink of a 150% breakout rally. As Congress delves into DeFi, the future of Uniswap and the broader DeFi sector could be set for a significant transformation.
    • I recently came across an interesting event on Bitget called "100% Spin Hot Coins! Win your Campus Lucky Draw and Apple Sets." It seems like a promotional campaign where participants can win various digital currencies like PEPE, ****, BGB, KAS, TRX, WIF, and FLOKI, along with Apple products. To join, you need to register and complete the KYC verification process. The event is available to users from specific regions, including the UK, Canada, Australia, and several European countries. The total prize pool is 50,000 USDT, and rewards are given on a first-come, first-served basis. If you're into crypto and enjoy participating in such events, this might be worth checking out. Just make sure to read the terms and conditions carefully before diving in.
×
×
  • Create New...
us