Jump to content

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at +428k v/s +391k Forecast, Unemployment at 3.6%


Recommended Posts

NON-FARM PAYROLLS TALKING POINTS:

  • It’s been a very busy week across global markets with considerable focus around the Wednesday FOMC rate decision.
  • Non-farm Payrolls for the month of April is released just two days after that rate decision, and following this morning’s data, there’s a slew of Fed-speakers on the calendar for this afternoon. So it could remain a very busy day as we head into the weekend of what’s been a big outing for markets.

NFP and Oil Weakness | Daily Trade Watch - TheLiveTradeRoom

Updated 8:44 AM ET

Initial take on this data outlay is that it wasn’t too bad. The Fed did appear to get a bit of help with Average Hourly Earnings coming in a bit under the expectation, printing at 5.5% versus last month’s 5.6% release. This speaks to inflation and given the Fed’s fight against higher prices, any help there is likely welcomed. And, it seems unlikely that a single 25 basis point hike from March would’ve made that difference here nor would this week’s 50 basis point hike have had impact on April data.

But – perhaps the Fed’s messaging has started to take a toll? And, similar to rates markets, labor markets are proactively responding to the Fed’s anticipate shift? This is all theoretical, by the way, because Average Hourly Earnings is still at 5.5%, well beyond the Fed’s 2% ‘Average Inflation Target’ and this is unlikely to mean much just yet. But, most big trends have small beginnings so, the Fed may have some hope here. But we’ll hear about that later today as we have a number of Fed speakers on the calendar, including John Williams giving a speech at 9:15 AM ET.

Outside of Average Hourly Earnings, the headline number came out a little higher than expected at +428k versus the +391k expected. The unemployment rate was a tick higher at 3.6% versus the forecast of 3.5% but, that’s inline with last month’s 3.6% print. This has also been a focal point of the Fed, focusing on slack in the labor market and this unemployment read stayed flat from last month, indicating that there hasn’t been much progress there.

MARKET RESPONSES

This is a bit more of a loaded equation given how everything transpired this week. The initial response in the USD had been weakness with price continuing to pullback after this morning’s fresh 19-year-high. There doesn’t appear to be much in this report that could serve as damaging to that bullish trend. But, given the veracity of the move this week, which has been pumping higher in a fairly aggressive manner since yesterday morning, and there could be some more profit-taking to be seen ahead of the weekend.

This can open the door for support visits down to the 103.00 handle, which has seen both support and resistance during this recent run. This remains an area of interest in the US Dollar.

US DOLLAR 30-MINUTE PRICE CHART

USD 30m chart

Released 8:31 AM ET

This morning brings the release of Non-farm Payrolls for the month of April and, after what’s already been a very eventful week, this data point is likely going to garner considerable attention.

The Fed has just hiked rates by 50 basis points for the first time since the year 2000. This, of course, is in effort of reducing the 40-year highs that continue to show with inflation data, and a large portion of that inflationary focus is on wage growth, which will be touched on in this morning’s NFP release.

The expectation for this morning’s release was for the US to have added +391k jobs in the month of April, along with an unemployment rate at 3.5% v/s a prior print of 3.6%. But – on that wage growth front, the expectation is actually for some softening – to 5.5% versus last month’s 5.6%.

While .1% is a nominal difference, seeing some reduction here would likely bring a sense of relief for the Fed as they’re faced with a number of options that all contain some considerable downside potential.

Updating…

Ahead of the release, the US Dollar remains very near recently-established 19-year highs. Initially the Dollar dropped on the back of the FOMC announcement. But, it came raging back yesterday as buyers bid the dip and prices broke through resistance to set a fresh high.

US DOLLAR DAILY PRICE CHART

US Dollar daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • As the cryptocurrency space evolves, Bitget keeps bringing up worthwhile initiatives to make crypto trading interesting and easy for its users as well as helping them maximise profit.  Gleaning from the likes of Candybomb to PoolX and the likes, the CEX has been seen to steadily provide these services. The PRE MARKET trade seems to be the newest product on the block right now. It is an over the counter trading platform that specialises in providing a pre-traded marketplace for new coins before official listing.  Simply put, it is a p2p framework of some sort that facilitates trading between buyers and sellers enabling them to acquire coins at optimal price thus enhancing advance liquidity and complete delivery at a mutually agreed upon time.  The interesting thing about the Pre Market is that; it allows the advocates or supporters of newly launched projects to trade through a contract before the token goes mainstream or before being airdropped.  This framework is very good for projects that have very high speculation, speculative traders should check out this product.  Good thing is the Pre trade is already live, you can leverage on it to purchase $MERL before its official listing, you could get to earn massive ROI. Here's the link; https://www.bitget.com/pre-market/MERLUSDT
    • Atomic Wallet is experiencing issues with their staking and rewards, so I would like to transfer my ATOMs to another crypto wallet. I contacted Atomic Wallet Support and they recommended Cosmostation Wallet and gave me instructions on how to do this. I followed the links they sent me, which required me to fill in my seed phrase. My ATOMs transferred to Cosmostation Wallet but were immediately transferred out. I never made that transaction. I contacted Cosmostation Wallet Support and asked them what happened. They informed me that I must have been talking to a scammer posing as support from Atomic Wallet. I contacted Atomic Wallet and they said I wasn't talking to a scammer and those links are legit. I lost my funds because my PC must be infected. Atomic Wallet wouldn't outright scam me would they?  
    • With the recent surge in "Cat Coins," a wave of playfulness and intrigue is sweeping the crypto community. KHAI, a meme token built on the Solana blockchain, is at the forefront of this movement. Fueled by a bullish community sentiment, KHAI has experienced a staggering 15.27% price increase in the past 24 hours, pushing its market cap to a noteworthy 24.4 million dollars. This impressive growth comes on top of a remarkable 94.3% price jump over the past week, significantly outperforming both the global market and other Solana-based cryptocurrencies. Could KHAI be the next big memecoin to reach unprecedented heights? Its recent listing on the Bitget exchange, accompanied by a giveaway event, certainly adds fuel to the fire. However, the question remains: will this newfound attention propel KHAI to even greater heights, or will it succumb to the volatility often associated with memecoins? Only time will tell.
×
×
  • Create New...
us