Jump to content

Where next for Target shares after worst plunge since 1987 crash?


Recommended Posts

Target’s 25% share price fall, the worst one-day decline since 1987’s Black Monday, dragged other retailers down and hit the broader market.

RetailSource: Bloomberg
 
 Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 19 May 2022 

Target widely misses estimates

The US behemoth retailer Target widely missed analyst estimates as a surge in costs squeezed margins in the first quarter (Q1).

When the company cut its profit forecast it triggered the sharpest one-day decline in its share price since the Black Monday 1987 crash.

Target’s supply chain constraints, rapidly rising fuel, and freight costs in Q1 amid a shift in consumer shopping habits which led to a sharp slowdown in apparel and home goods sales, led the company to mark down bloated inventories and lower its forward guidance.

The retailer stated that it would have to spend $1 billion more on freight in 2022 than it expected to at the start of the year as widespread Covid lockdowns in China created congestion at Asian sea ports, and rising petrol prices have driven up the cost of trucking.

Added to that, Target ordered too many bulky home goods which US consumers bought less of, and which are especially costly to ship and store because of their size and weight, forcing the company to rent additional warehouse space in the tightest warehouse market on record to store its excess inventory before selling it off at highly discounted prices to free up storage space.

All of the above led to Target’s net income dropping by 52% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 and a near 25% drop in its share price on Wednesday.

Where to next for Target’s share price?

Year-to-date the Target share price has declined by 30%, the majority of which yesterday, with it falling to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 bull market at $155.22 before consolidating in the short-term.

Target weekly chartSource: ProRealTime

 

Over the next few days this year’s decline is expected to continue with the August 2020 high at $152 representing the first downside target, followed by the October 2020 low and the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $146.90 to $144.83. In this area the share price may find support.

On the daily chart a huge gap has been formed between Tuesday’s low at $209.27 and yesterday’s high at $167.77 which is not expected to get filled for several months at the very least.

Target daily chartSource: ProRealTime

 

In case of the share price stabilising in the short-term, the 50% retracement of the advance from the March 2020 pandemic low and the November 2020 high at $176.40 to $177.43 may act as initial resistance.

If not, the next higher February low at $183.07 is likely to be more solid resistance and is expected to cap, if reached at all.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • The first half of 2024 saw the debut of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, several lesser known cryptocurrencies such as BGB (annual increase of 100%, market value of US$1.6 billion); **** (annual increase of 90%, market value of US$1.5 billion), WIF (annual increase of 1,306%, market value of US$2.1 billion); PEPE (annual increase of 815%, market value of US$5 billion) also gained significant attention during this period. The overall market value of all cryptocurrencies rose by $661 billion in the first six months of 2024. BGB, the native token of the Bitget cryptocurrency exchange, was among the top 10 best-performing cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization over $1 billion in the first half of 2024. The token saw a 100% increase in its price during this period. While the exchange token is not considered a "meme coin" like some of the other top-performing tokens on the list, its significant price appreciation suggests growing investor interest and adoption of the exchange and its associated cryptocurrency. As one of the world's largest crypto exchanges, The exchange performance reflects the broader bullish sentiment in the crypto market over the first six months of 2024.
    • PixelVerse, a platform designed to transform virtual interaction is gaining traction amongst the Metaverse, Gaming, NFT and DEX enthusiasts. Out of curiosity I digged dip to get a grasp of what the project is really about.  At first glance, Pixelverse gives an aura of an encompassing ecosystem that meets digital realm needs. For instance, Metaverse enthusiasts bask in the euphoria of using PixelLaunch, a launchpad product that also offers access to innovative Metaverse and gaming experiences. The Gaming, NFT, and DEX counterparts are engrossed in PixelHouse, PixelNFT and PixelSwap; accessing a thrilling/rewarding gaming experience, an open NFT marketplace and a customised DEX respectively. Pixelverse could offer immersive virtual world experience especially for $PIXEL holders. Understandably, this vast token utility has the community anticipating the imminent listing on Bitget. Which feature are you looking to explore most?
    • Q2 Netflix earnings preview and share price analysis.   Source: Adobe images   Shares Netflix Revenue Income Streaming media Stock market   Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Market Analyst, London   Publication date: Wednesday 10 July 2024 17:06 Netflix's second-quarter 2024 earnings preview: the fight to stay on top As Netflix gets ready to announce its earnings for the second quarter (Q2) of 2024, investors want to know if the popular streaming service can keep attracting lots of new subscribers, make the most of its ad-supported plans, and remain the top streaming platform. When will Netflix share its latest earnings information? Netflix will reveal its April through June 2024 financial results after the stock market closes on Thursday, 18 July 2024. Another Netflix revenue increase seems to be on the cards Netflix expects its revenue to increase 16% year-over-year (YoY) to $9.49 billion in the second quarter of 2024 but analysts predict Netflix's Q2 revenue will be slightly higher at $9.53 billion. In the first quarter of 2024, Netflix's revenue was $9.37 billion, up 15% from the prior year. Earnings are also expected to rise Regarding earnings, Netflix forecasts net income of $2.06 billion, or $4.68 per share, for the second quarter of 2024 whereas analysts estimate Netflix's Q2 earnings per share will reach $4.74. For comparison, in Q2 2023, Netflix reported a net income of $1.48 billion, or $3.29 per share. Netflix's net income in quarter 1 (Q1) 2024 was $2.3 billion, or $5.28 per share. Further revenue growth in the pipeline YoY Netflix expects 21% FX-neutral revenue growth in Q2. Paid net additions are likely to be lower in Q2 than Q1 due to seasonal trends but global average revenue per membership is predicted to increase YoY in Q2 (on an FX-neutral basis). In Q1 2024, Netflix added 9.3 million net subscribers, grew global paid memberships 16% YoY to 269.6 million, and increased average revenue per membership 1% YoY (or 4% on an FX-neutral basis). Engagement remained solid despite changes like paid sharing. Netflix sales revenue chart   Source: TradingEconomics For Q2 2024, Netflix forecasts $2.52 billion in operating income and 26.6% operating margin, versus $1.82 billion and 22.3% in Q2 2023. This compares to Q1 2024 operating income of $2.63 billion and operating margin of 28.1%. LSEG Data & Analytics analyst Netflix recommendations LSEG Data & Analytics data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Netflix – 11 strong buy, 18 buy, 16 hold and 1 sell (as of 10 July 2024).   Source: Refinitiv Netflix – technical view The Netflix share price, up over 45% year-to-date, is approaching its November 2021 record high at $700.99 which, since it was made near the major psychological $700 mark, probably won’t be easily overcome. Netflix monthly chart   Source: TradingView.com A rise above the $700.99 all-time high would allow for the $750 region to be in focus, though. On the daily chart, the Netflix share price has been range bound since late June but last week did rise to its current July high at $697.49, close to the $700.99 record peak. The upside is being supported by the May-to-July uptrend line at $678.42 below which good support can be spotted between the May high and the late June and early July lows at $633.78 to $662.30. While this area underpins, the short-term uptrend will remain valid. Netflix daily chart   Source: TradingView.com For a medium-term top to be formed, the Netflix share price would have to fall through its $626.44 June low. Slightly above this level, the April high at $639.00 would be expected to offer support in such a scenario.
×
×
  • Create New...
us