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Are markets too early in pricing an easing of China’s Covid lockdown?


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Markets discount future expectations and among the headlines that have been circulating is that China is preparing to open again after what some say was a draconian lockdown strategy.

 

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor caught up with John Meyer from SP Angel who said that any recovery is likely to be patchy at best.

Other news discussed was the likelihood of China entering Taiwan, and US President Biden’s wish to look at potentially unwinding some of the Trump-era trade sanctions on China.

 

 

 

 

 

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    • Fits in well with my cycle low expectation  
    • Natural Gas Mode - Impulsive  Structure - Impulse Wave  Position - Wave (iii) of 5 Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play   Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.   Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.   Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.   Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.       Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!
    • TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) Daily Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Intermediate (1) DIRECTION: Acceleration in wave 3.   DETAILS: Looking for upside in wave 3 as we seem to have had a shallow wave {c} of 2, potentially indicating a strong upward momentum.       TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) 4Hr Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave {i} of 3. DIRECTION: Top in wave {i}. DETAILS: Looking for a pullback in wave {ii} as we top in wave {i} to then look for additional longs, looking for 172$ to provide support. We conducted a detailed Elliott Wave analysis for Texas Instruments Inc. (Ticker: TXN), examining both its daily and 4-hour chart movements. This analysis aims to provide valuable insights into potential future price movements for traders and investors interested in TXN stock.     * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* Texas Instruments Inc. is currently exhibiting a strong impulsive trend, characterized by a motive structure placed in Intermediate wave (1). The stock is anticipated to experience acceleration in wave 3 following a shallow wave {c} of 2. This suggests a robust upward momentum, signaling favorable conditions for bullish positions. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* On the 4-hour chart, TXN's impulsive trend is further evident, with the stock positioned in Wave {i} of 3. As the stock approaches the top in wave {i}, a pullback is expected in wave {ii}. This corrective phase presents an opportunity for traders to consider additional long positions, with the key support level identified around $172.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
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