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GBP/USD Price Setup Ahead of Crucial FOMC and BoE Rate Meetings


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GBP/USD, FOMC AND BOE NEWS AND ANALYSIS

  • Anticipated rate hike divergence leaves sterling susceptible to the USD
  • GBP/USD setup ahead of the FOMC and BoE rate decisions
  • Major risk events ahead: FOMC, BoE rate decisions and US retail sales
 

FED AND BOE PREVIEW:

While the Bank of England (BoE) was the first of these two major central banks to begin the rate hiking journey, souring fundamentals in the UK and an increasing sense of urgency to calm soaring inflation in the US, has led us to this juncture. On Thursday, we could very well see a stark shift in the pace and size of future rate hikes for both regions as the market expects over 70 basis points to be added to the Fed funds rate later this evening, while the BoE is poised to hike by a comparatively low 25 bps.

Fed and BoE Implied Rate Hike Odds

GBP/USD Price Setup Ahead of Crucial FOMC and BoE Rate Meetings

Source: Refinitiv, prepared by Richard Snow

The urgency for the FOMC to up the pace of rate hikes was confirmed last Friday when US CPI surprised to the upside, coming in at 8.6% vs 8.3% - rendering prior hikes somewhat ineffective when it comes to calming inflation. The phenomenally strong labor market in the US and soaring inflation certainly supports calls for an aggressive rate hike; however, recent warning from major retailers Walmart and Target around the susceptibility of the US consumer has left markets on recession watch.

An overly aggressive hike threatens to squeeze household incomes and place un-needed stress on debt laden companies, potentially placing the US on the path to recession, or worse, stagflation. Speaking of stagflation, the UK has been hit with soaring energy costs due to the ongoing war in Ukraine which necessitated fiscal support by way of a windfall tax. The fiscal support, while welcomed, doesn’t make the task of the BoE much easier as the mood music coming from the Bank points to a more gradual approach to normalization. The previous rate setting meeting saw members of the MPC judging risks to growth and inflation as “balanced”, relinquishing the need for continued, hawkish forward guidance.

GBP/USD SCENARIO ANALYSIS: URGENT HIKER (FED) VS RELUCTANT HIKER (BOE)

There are a number of permutations that could arise over the next 48 hours so it may be prudent to consider the base case before mentioning various deviations.

Market Expectations: Fed to hike by 75 bps and BoE to hike by 25 bps.

Implied probabilities based off Fed funds futures lie closer to 75 bps than 50 bps while the BoE equivalent remains closer to 25 bps but remains elevated at 32 bps. 75 bps from the Fed could suggest a bullish continuation on the dollar, after the dust has settled, while 25 bps from the BoE could be viewed as a hawkish disappointment and lead to a lower move in GBP/USD.

The pair briefly breached the 1.2000 mark (see the monthly chart) yesterday before pulling back as we head into the FOMC meeting. The RSI has retreated from being ever so slightly in oversold territory – raising concerns about a lasting recovery. The prior dip into oversold territory (red circle) was invalidated, meaning that we could still see a re-test of 1.2000 in the coming days.

Near-term resistance comes in at 1.2155 with 1.2250 a better indication for a deeper pullback.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Price Setup Ahead of Crucial FOMC and BoE Rate Meetings

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

The monthly chart helps reveal the significance of the psychologically important 1.2000 level as it has acted as a pivot point in the past.

GBP/USD Monthly Chart

GBP/USD Price Setup Ahead of Crucial FOMC and BoE Rate Meetings

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

That being said, we could witness a 50 bps hike in the US as was previously suggested by Jerome Powell and other FOMC members. This is clearly well below current market expectations and runs the risk of sending the dollar lower as the ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ mentality takes hold. As for the Bank of England, anything other than 25 bps would be a shock but markets are likely to be more interested in the vote split of the decision for further insight into their overall appetite for higher interest rates.

MAJOR RISK EVENTS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS

Forex traders have certainly been blessed with all that is on offer this week but the main risk events include the FOMC and BoE decisions with an honourable mention for US retail sales. Previously I mentioned the worsening state of the US consumer which could be reflected in the data. Last week a University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey dropped significantly from 58.4 to 50.2 as consumers’ economic outlook and prospects soured drastically. Next week, UK CPI could be the judge as to whether the BoE decision was justified.

GBP/USD Price Setup Ahead of Crucial FOMC and BoE Rate Meetings

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

 

--- Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com. 15th June 2022

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    • Hi Skyreach, Thanks for the comment Yep, most charting software does not do it right, this is purely down to the SCALING of computer screens and the software - there is a solution though The perfect way is to find out the scaling for the market you're looking at (they are ALL different) - If you take the SP500 as an example and I think I showed this on my "Are the markets random" thread, the High of Jan 2022 to Oct 2022 was a PERFECT 1 x 1 down angle in terms of Gann - the scaling formula is EXACTLY the same scaling for UP angles Gann angles aren't the be all and end all as they have there limitations but you can use them for certain things - What Gann did was right specific courses for huge amounts of money with confidentiality clauses that explained exactly what the markets were/are doing, those courses have remained hidden from the public, with only a tiny amount of evidence as to what was going on - BUT, Gann was talking about planets and planetary positions on charts in relation to prices and his Gann angles, were approximate planetary lines for the general public to use, not precise, but good enough as the angles are based on %'s of the circle See the following chart: DJIA from 2009 - People would have writen off the 1 x 1 angle after 2011, but look at it in 2022 perfect example of price and time balancing - this is a perfectly scaled chart and angles Notice: the 1 x 1.5 angle (never talked of of published on charting software) it was effective throughout and ran through the 50% level of the "covid" plunge EXACTLY This chart is the DJIA from 1982 to 2000: The 1 x 1 forecast and timed the big 2000 highs, notice the support it provided in 1987+ and notice that the 1.5 x 1 angle ran right though the 50% level of the 1987 crash - in just 2 charts we've seen the 1.5 angle split major crashes precisely and exactly to the 50% level So to come back to your comment about scaling etc and again I've shown this in "Are markets random" thread, but didn't highlight it - If you find a well defined market swing of a number of weeks or months as shown in the chart below - box the swing, split it proportionally into 25%'#s draw angles to intersect those 25%'s as shown = YOU WILL HAVE A PERFECTLY SCALED ANGLE FOR YOUR COMPUTER SCREEN AND CHARTING SOFTWARE  As long as you don't change the scaling on the chart by adding or reducing more price bars etc it will be accurately scaled, you can then COPY the angles and move around the chart - On my charting software I look back over 6 months, if I changed that to say 9 months then the scaling would change and the angles created on the 6 month basis would not be to scale, so as long as i keep the look back to 6 months any angles created will be perfectly scaled etc My software also allows me to view the angle on different timescales without moving it I mentioned planets above Not shown on the chart is the Mars/Jupiter combo at the 2009 low - the SP500 stopped dead at 666.79 points  - the Mars/Jupiter line was at a longitude of 307 degrees on a circle of 360, add 360 to 307 and you get the value of 667 = which was the value in points at which the SP500 "suddenly" stopped dead at and turned around!  This chart proves the conjunction value of mars/jupiter: The first chart is Gann's 1948 Soybeans charts shwoing Mars and Jupiter conjunction at the HIGH Then this is Mars/Jupiter conjunctions in the SP500 from 200 high - not all timings are significant but some are Here's, the trendline as a line from the 2000 high - notice that in 2018 it caught the high around the conjunction date - the thing to consider here is like the 2009 low, PRICE was 2872, the 2018 conjunction was the 8th conjunction since the 2000 high - 8 x 360 = 2880 degrees from the 2000 high = 8 points from perfection As we can see when Mars/Jupiter time and price balanced, the market dropped - only a minor drop in the grand scheme of things, but it did exactly as Gann said it would, trend reversal So although Gann mentioned his gann angles, really was he was saying was "Planetary lines" - which is exactly why when we trade gann angles, they often don't work that well, because we're trading them with the wrong scaling, the wrong reasoning and something else is creating the lines and angle of them, that most people are oblivious to That being said, people can still trade the steeper Gann angles from either the box method of creating them or the proper scaled method of knowing the points per bar figure - markets above the steeper angles often keep on rising  THT
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    • WD Gann Said over 100 years ago "When TIME & PRICE BALANCE, the trend HAS to change" . Yes, there is a definite maths relationship, Via Gann or Elliot-waves. The pity is I cannot get Gann Angles on IG as they are not properly defined as per Gann, and do NOT REMAIN FIXED AT THOSE ANGLES WHEN YOU CHANGE TO ANY TIMEFRAME!!!!!!!! Even the Gann fan angles, used by all brokers, are a joke. These angles are not set arbitrarily as the system allows, and no means to measure angles!!!!  
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