Jump to content

AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Waning Bets for RBA Rate Hike in July


Recommended Posts

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS

AUD/USD consolidates within the June range as it manages to hold above the yearly low (0.6829), but the exchange rate may face headwinds ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision on July 5 as the central bank tames speculation for another 50bp rate hike.

AUD/USD Outlook Mired by Waning Bets for RBA Rate Hike in July

AUD/USD OUTLOOK MIRED BY WANING BETS FOR RBA RATE HIKE IN JULY

AUD/USD fails to extend the series of higher highs and lows from last week’s low (0.6869) on the back of US Dollar strength, and the Greenback may continue to outperform its Australian counterpart as Governor Philip Lowe acknowledges that “like other countries, we’re having to raise interest rates and there are uncertainties around how that’s going to affect the economy.”

As a result, Governor Lowe went onto say that the central bank is “on a narrow path back to low inflation” while speaking at an event held by UBS, with the central bank head emphasizing that the benefits of meeting every four-weeks is that the RBA is able to “take stock of information at a very high frequency basis and are able to respond to the changing circumstances.”

The comments suggest the RBA will move to the sidelines after delivering a 50bp rate hike for the first time since 2000 as the minutes from the June meeting reveal that “over the preceding couple of decades, increases in the cash rate had typically occurred in 25 basis point increments,” and waning speculation for a further shift in monetary policy may drag on the Australian Dollar as the ASX RBA Rate Indicator now shows a“64% expectation of an interest rate increase to 1.50% at the next RBA Board meeting.

Image of ASX RBA Rate Indicator

Keep in mind, the indicator showed an 80% chance for a July RBA rate hike during the previous week, and the different approaches between the RBA and Federal Reserve may keep AUD/USD under pressure in the second half of 2022 as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. show a greater willingness to implement a restrictive policy.

In turn, the consolidation in AUD/USD may end up being temporary with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on track to implement higher interest rates over the coming months, but a further decline in the exchange rate may fuel the tilt in retail sentiment like the behavior seen earlier this year.

 

Jun 29, 2022 | DailyFX
David Song, Strategist

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • I trade leveraged futures on Binance so I'm going to miss them, not that much though cos I also use Bitget exchange, and they have high liquidity and low fees, So I will just move my funds there and continue leveraged trading.
    • If you've tried using Ethereum, you know it can get slow and expensive. Think of Starknet as a helper that makes everything faster and cheaper. It does this by taking a bunch of transactions, squishing them into one, and then processing that one. This means more transactions can happen at once without clogging up the system. For people making apps on the blockchain (they call these dApps), Starknet is like a dream come true because it lets their apps handle a lot more users without slowing down. It also gives them the freedom to make their apps work just how they want, making things better for users. When it comes to making money, Starknet charges fees to use its network and lets people 'stake' their coins – that's like putting your money in a savings account that helps the network run, and you get a little reward for that. So, what do you think about Starknet? It's all about helping Ethereum handle more action without any hassle. Could be a big deal for how we use digital money, right?
    • Why is this?    what’s the reason? I’ve had open positions on this stock for over 3 years 
×
×
  • Create New...
us