Jump to content

Stocks and Bonds Up, Dollar Down (For Now): Top Trading Opportunities


Recommended Posts

Stocks and Bonds Up, Dollar Down (For Now): Top Trading Opportunities

Jul 7, 2022 | DailyFX
Paul Robinson, Strategist

It appears that towards the very end of last quarter we hit a major inflection point in the trend of higher dollar and rates and lower stocks, and anything perceived as risky. While the longer-term outlook appears likely to continue supporting the first half theme, corrections will happen. It is even possible the correction in recent trends will have the market thinking the worst is behind us.

At any rate, I’ll take it one step at a time. For now, a recovery rally in stocks and bonds is anticipated while the dollar falls. The S&P 500 could rally up to around 4200, while the 30-yr ultra rallies to 160 or higher. The DXY could ease back inside the multi-year range towards the 100 level.

The S&P 500 isn’t necessarily bouncing from a highly notable level but the price action and sentiment suggest we have seen the worst for now.

S&P 500 WEEKLY CHART

Stocks and Bonds Up, Dollar Down (For Now): Top Trading Opportunities

Source: TradingView

The 30-year took out the 2018 low and reversed back above, suggesting we saw a wash-out.

30-YR ULTRA BOND WEEKLY CHART

Stocks and Bonds Up, Dollar Down (For Now): Top Trading Opportunities

Source: TradingView

Failing to stay outside of the multi-month range is setting up the DXY for selling.

DXY MONTHLY CHART

Stocks and Bonds Up, Dollar Down (For Now): Top Trading Opportunities

Source: TradingView

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Facebook owner Meta Platforms saw its shares down heavily in extended trade after revenue forecasts disappointed. Some analysts are also now questioning the staggering amounts of money Meta is investing in artificial intelligence. Written by: Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London   Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 10:28 Earnings per share came in at $4.71, comfortably above estimates of $4.32 and revenues up 27% year-on-year, at $36.46bln, above the forecasts of $36.16bln. That was the fastest rate of revenue expansion for any quarter since 2021. However, shares have quite clearly been priced for perfection as the outlook, however strong it is, quite clearly disappointed the market. Q2 revenue is expected at $36.5 to $39bln with the midpoint at $37.75bln, which would represent 18% year-over-year growth, but below analysts' average estimates of $38.3bln. However, the company is also expected to invest between $30-37bln into AI, possibly as much as $40bln, which some said was too much given current engagement. (AI Video Summary) Meta Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook, experienced a significant stock drop post-market following its quarterly earnings report, despite beating earnings expectations with a share price of $4.71 against a forecast of $4.32, and posting revenues of $36.46 billion. Meta's aggressive investment in AI technology This drop was attributed to concerns over its aggressive investment in AI technology, with spending on AI expected to be between $30 to $40 billion. Despite initial investor trepidation, there's notable buying interest in the stock at the lower prices, with 87% of clients holding long positions. The heavy investment in AI technology continues to spark debate among investors regarding the company’s future direction.     This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
×
×
  • Create New...
us