ECB - European Central Bank

[Caseynotes]

Draghi speaks today at 1.45 pm, might be interesting given Merkel's comments short while ago re, Euro too low and recent (March) FT comments re, ECB could start to normalise interest rates while tapering bond purchases rather than waiting for tapering to complete.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e9c12ed2-0f06-11e7-b030-768954394623

 

 

[Caseynotes]

'A big move in the Bund today could set off a chain reaction' (indices, currencies). Short vid from Nic Dukes on potential bund breakout on ECB  announcements today.  Rate decision 12:45,  presser 1:30. 

 

https://t.co/TPUyCFjoT3

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Article on ECB mismanagement and the inescapable trap Draghi finds himself in.

 

https://mises.org/wire/there-any-way-out-ecbs-trap

 

[Caseynotes]

Not much expected from today's rate decision at 12:45, more potential for movement from the presser at 1:30.

 

http://www.marctomarket.com/2018/01/and-now-word-from-draghi.html

 

[Caseynotes]

ING  cut out guide to the ECB presser and potential effect on eurusd, treasury and bund.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

ING's ECB crib sheet.

 

[Caseynotes]

ING's cut out and keep crib sheet for today's ECB presser.

 

[Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG]

@Caseynotes I like this ING sheet, stated EUR/USD levels seem reasonable. 

I'd (as would everyone else) be very surprised by a rate hike / hardening of monetary policy. Press conference likely to be slightly more choppy than recent (Draghi has been unusually placid of late).

As usual, we'll widen guaranteed stop distances on affected FX pairs, indices & rates beforehand. 

[Caseynotes]

I just hope he actually has something to say @Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG, the pressers are always about 45 minutes long and interminably boring when he doesn't.

[Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG]

Hah, true. Fingers crossed.

[Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG]

TD's take on it. 

[Caseynotes]

Yes, "Draghi waffles on translation issues" 80% - doesn't bode well.

[JamesIG]

With everything coming in within expectations all eyes are on Darghi.

Should be coming up in 5 minutes. EUR crosses under the spotlight. 

You can watch the press conference LIVE here, or using the official link below if you would prefer.

 

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_pc_m.en.html 

[247trader]

market looking relatively range bound going into the meeting.

[Caseynotes]

That's right @247trader, always flat going in, need to be a bit cautious with pressers because price can shoot one way then completely reverse on the very next sentence and this can go on for 45 minutes. With a data release directional consensus is usually reached relatively quickly.

So far, with Bund slightly down and Dax rising slightly the early signs are base case to mildly hawkish.

[Caseynotes]

Draghi about to start his usual 45 min ramble, Hedgeye cheat sheet below;