Jump to content

Technical Analysis 101


Caseynotes

Recommended Posts

Trader1707

 

I just applied Warren Buffet's thinking and beliefs to Dax and Dow indices , it works  I just go for value.

 

The problem is these guys using mainly technical analysis, on it's own, without learning market behaviors and lack of understanding of "how to profit from trading " , are ending up on in the 95 % club.95% are losing , using technical analysis alone , then there is a problem with the Gurus  who teach.

 

http://besttradingforums.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/95-of-traders-lose-below-confirms-this.html 

 

 

Link to comment
  • Replies 103
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

If  marketing timing is difficult , the application of the underlying technical analysis is redundant.

 

Why technical analysis is shunned by professionals http://www.followingthetrend.com/2014/05/why-technical-analysis-is-shunned-by-professionals/

 

Technical analysis is about market timing, it is difficult to time the markets.

Why market timing doesn't work

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-market-timing-doesnt-work-2013-10-23

 

one in 100 investors will be successful using timing.

Price action relies on market timing , both technical analysis and price action require market timing to work.Both don't work and make money because it is difficult to time the entries and exits.

4 Reasons Why Market Timing Fails as a Money Maker

 

https://jarredbunch.com/investing/4-reasons-market-timing-fails-money-maker/

 

If you can't time the markets on longer term investing, it is certainly more difficult in the short term trading .We are being taught by educators who make money from selling education.

Link to comment

There is another upstanding method for analysing the market - it's the dollar basket chart - US Dollar Index. 

Though the most strong influence this 'basket" makes on EUR/USD as it has the biggest weight in the total proportion between major US pairs, but i think it's possible to apply the chart of dollar basket to other partials: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and so on. So - called another variant of technical analysis.

Link to comment

There is nothing in what you say or in your links that qualifies the statement 'If  marketing timing is difficult , the application of the underlying technical analysis is redundant'.

 

Neither linked articles on market timing mention technical analysis at all and you also include a link to a piece on technical analysis that doesn't mention market timing.

 

The two things are different concepts and it is difficult to see how this even fits in this thread.

 

 

Link to comment

The only way to test if all this works is for you to call out trades in advance, like I do and prove that with  live trades and advance calls .

 

I challenge you to post 20 trades in advance, using technical analysis  and prove to us it makes money.

 

I am sure you will not take this challenge, I see a lot of sites singing technical analysis,  but all this singing about technical analysis is of  no benefit to a trader, unless he can use it to make money.

 

An advance call example is 

 

Buy ftse 7605, stop loss 7580, date 27/12/2017 

 

All this should be unedited posts.pooh.gif

 

 

Link to comment

Good grief oilfxpro, haven't we been through this before, discretionary traders usually can't post in advance and lets not forget your own record is less than successful and opaque,

 

Lets see, starts the 'set in stone' options dow and dax system in early 2016 but soon trails off and then goes dark.

Comes back with mark 2 (long only).

Then mark 3 (off support long only).

Then Mark 4 (not daily but weekly).

 

Can't wait for Mark 5.

Link to comment

Casey 

 

I am baiting you "to prove you can make money" using technical analysis.

 

Only 20 trades to be called in advance, in a separate thread.

 

Trading industry provides quite luring opportunities to earn risk-free, by teaching new traders. As far as there are wannabe traders who can afford education. But this education goes to the level of qualification of mentor .If you can prove it works, then we will all sign up and could all offer you our million dollar accounts to call signals on.Fink 1000 subscribers @ £100 per month = £100,000 a month  earn risk-free.

 

 

Yachts mansions Porsche

 

yach  g s.jpg

 

paradise house.jpg

 

 

Link to comment

What's to prove? I've already seen your 'infallible' system fail over a year ago and this year has been no different. I am happy with what I already know.

 

The reason you must constantly adjust your 'set in stone' system is because it can only ever work in very specific market conditions as I have pointed out before. If you applied a bit of basic technical analysis you would see clearly whether or not those specific market conditions were actually present instead of blindly taking options on a daily basis, that was always going to fail and so it's no wonder that after a short spell you stopped posting your trades, again.

 

So I look forward to the Mark 5 version and it's inevitable failure as you continue to reject and deny the very thing that thing that would help. 

Link to comment

Do you realise these last two posts don't actually make any sense? But it comes as no surprise that you are taking fx advice from a cafe manager you found on yet another poor forum site though, it explains a lot. Anyone who believes the markets are 'totally random' does not understand how an auction works.

Link to comment

It is likely that ftse may correct, it becomes more expensive for foreign investors, if £ is stronger.

That is really not technical analysis. It is fundamental analysis.Technical analysis alone is unreliable.It is only the road map to the trading gold.

 

We don't know whether to place a short on ftse, in case gbp weakened.If all other indices are  still bullish,shorting ftse can be dangerous.

 

gbp usd.jpg

 

ftse.jpg

Link to comment

I don't use technical analysis.I looked at correlation on DOW  , S and P , Nadaq and DAX.It is more relevant.

 

More on technical analysis below 

 

Technical analysts suffer from psychological biases, in processing technical analysis information.

 

http://vantharp.com/consulting/vkt_interview.htm

 

Van Tharp" At the most basic level, people must trade by processing information. Unfortunately, we're not very efficient information processors. We have a lot of biases which enter into trading decisions. I've documented 25 of them. However, I think most of those biases can be summarized by realizing that trading/investing are very simple processes and we human beings try to make it into something much more complex. Those biases are all about adding complexity to the world.".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment

In the main I find people try and read into things far too much, the market will do what the market does and the market makers have the dabble too!  In my experience if personally find using Heikin-Ashi provides over 75% confidence in direction and serves me very well.  No other indicators other than those mentioned previously are used.

Link to comment

Casey wrote

There is nothing in what you say or in your links that qualifies the statement 'If  marketing timing is difficult , the application of the underlying technical analysis is redundant'.

 

Neither linked articles on market timing mention technical analysis at all and you also include a link to a piece on technical analysis that doesn't mention market timing.

 

The two things are different concepts and it is difficult to see how this even fits in this thread.

 

If market timing was easy, your technical analysis system, using market structure and wyckoff etc,  would allow you to enter on 3 moving averages, as a result you would get  80 % plus success rate.If you could get a 80 % hit rate you would be very very wealthy.

 

My studies show that market timing is not easy, otherwise I would be doing it.

Link to comment

There is no single system to cope with all changing market conditions, so either have a range of systems or simply wait for the market conditions to change to suit the system you are using, or look for a chart that the system will suit. When the dax started ranging that no longer suited your system, you were right to take a look at the ftse instead.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      16,045
    • Total Posts
      76,903
    • Total Members
      64,024
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Saggy
    Joined 24/09/21 06:16
  • Posts

    • In the news; - oh dear never mind, it's all good data;  'A Turkish Prof, Zafer Kurugöl has said on TV that they have "accidentally" vaccinated babies with covid vax (adult dosage) and will publish the results (of their accidental experiment). He was also member of the Scientific Committee at Pfizer's Scientific Research Competition.' Professore Notte Botta @note_bot_ Pfizer’in Bilimsel Araştırmaya ve Genç Araştırmacılara Desteği Devam Ediyor | Pfizer Türkiye     'Newly reported deaths in Hawaii have risen 1,740% in the past two months despite one of the longest mask mandates in the world & overwhelming compliance…so I have to ask once again why Ron DeSantis did not mandate double masking & spend more time promoting vaccinations there.'  IM @ianmSC         Cases in South Korea have been at record high levels for nearly 3 months now despite 99% mask compliance, mask mandates and fines for non-compliance, so it’s always nice to hear politicians and experts keep pushing more mask mandates & forcing masks on 2 year olds.  IM @ianmSC   .
    • Ei Robsy, unfortunately nothing apart from the comment above. you? any more luck?
    • yes, and as everywhere else did nothing but harm;     'Type 2 diabetes in children appears to have doubled during the C-19 pandemic, data from two new US studies suggest, with the lead investigator of one saying she was "surprised by the staggering increase in cases of type 2 diabetes .. severity of presentation." 'Staggering' Doubling of Type 2 Diabetes in Kids During Pandemic (medscape.com)      
×
×
  • Create New...