Risk Event for the week 5 September: ECB rate meeting – Dax
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Gold and oil prices volatile after Middle East news, while natural gas price moves higher for a fourth day News of a possible Israeli counter-strike against Iran lifted oil and gold prices before both rapidly retreated, while natural gas is continuing to edge higher. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 19 April 2024 10:48 Gold knocked back from $2400 again Gold prices once again attempted to clear $2400, but ran into selling pressure for the second time. This pause to upward progress might signal that some short-term weakness is at hand, though there is at present little sign of any renewed downside. Buyers need a a close above $2400 to open the way to additional upside. Source: ProRealTime Brent spikes on Middle East tensions Oil prices had been under firm pressure in the previous two days, but spiked higher on news of a possible Israeli strike in Iran. The limited nature of the strike, and the muted Iranian response, meant that the price could not sustain gains, and the price fell back from its highs. However, if the $86 low can hold from Thursday then a short-term move higher may develop, particularly if tensons in the Middle East continue to rise. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas moves higher Natural gas prices have edged higher over the past four sessions, rallying off the 50-day SMA. Further gains would target the $2000 level, and then on the 100-day SMA at $2138. A more bearish view would require a close back below the 50-day SMA. Source: ProRealTime -
FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 drop on Israel retaliatory strike on Iran Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as investors fret about escalating tensions in the Middle East. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 19 April 2024 10:34 FTSE 100 stabilizes following sharp out-of-hours drop The FTSE 100 dropped like a stone to its late February high at 7,751 as Israel fired missiles at Iran in a retaliatory attack in out-of-hours trading. Even though the index still opened lower, it has so far regained the majority of its intraday losses as hopes that further escalation will not take place become more prevalent. While no rise above Thursday’s high at 7,899 is seen, though, the FTSE 100 remains under pressure and may revisit Tuesday’s low at 7,794. Minor resistance sits at the early April 7,856 low. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 drops to levels last seen in February The DAX 40 fell to levels last traded in late February when it hit the 17,400 mark on Middle East escalation as Israel launched missiles at Iran. The index is trying to heave itself above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 17,715 which may act as resistance with the 17,711 low seen on Tuesday. Further resistance sits at last Friday’s 17,831 low. For the bulls to even short-term be in control again, a bullish reversal and rise above Tuesday’s high at 17,903 needs to ensue. Support is found at the 7 March 17,619 low and the 50% retracement of the mid-January to April advance. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 slips to two-month low The S&P 500 is on track for its third consecutive week of losses as it hit levels last traded in mid-February at 4,927 amid a retaliatory missile strike by Israel on Iran. The index is trying to remain above this low but will now have the psychological 5,000 mark to contend with which should act as resistance. Further up the mid-February high at 5,049 may also act as resistance. Below today’s intraday low at 4,927 lies the 4,920 mid-February low. Source: ProRealTime
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Trading volatility: DXY on US Q1 GDP With the US economy seemingly able to cope with relatively high US interest rates there’s the potential for this coming week's US GDP reading for Q1 to be strong. Written by: Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 19 April 2024 10:08 If this comes to pass there will inevitably be a long trade to be had around the US dollar. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at likely levels which may be key. The data is out on Thursday 25 April. (AI Video Summary) U.S. GDP data Anticipation of strong U.S. GDP data for the first quarter, expected to affirm the resilience of the U.S. economy amid high interest rates. This optimism is reflected in the forecast of the U.S. dollar's strength, particularly noted in the dollar basket's potential movement. Traders are advised to watch for a break above 106.19 in the dollar basket, suggesting a move to 106.98 on a robust GDP outcome. This analysis is tied to expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates to combat inflation, impacting dollar positions and providing key insights for financial enthusiasts interested in currency markets and economic indicators. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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