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US Dollar (DXY) Rally – The Cleanest Shirt in the Dirty Laundry Basket


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US Dollar Price and Chart Analysis

  • US dollar breaches 110 in holiday-thinned conditions.
  • Euro and Sterling are roiled by fresh energy concerns.

US Dollar (DXY) Rally – The Cleanest Shirt in the Dirty Laundry Basket

The US dollar basket (DXY) broke above 110 early today for the first time in over 20 years as the greenback’s dominance of the FX market shows no sign of abating. The DXY is up over 21 big figures since the start of 2021 - a 23.5% rally – and further gains look likely if the ongoing energy crisis in Europe remains. The US dollar basket is calculated by factoring in movements in six major currencies with the Euro having a 57.6% weighting in the calculation. Weakness in the single currency shows up as a strength in the US dollar basket.

While today’s move higher may be exacerbated by US Labor Day holiday-thinned market conditions, the move higher in the DXY looks set to continue. The US is ahead of the rest of the world’s central banks in the rate hiking cycle, despite Fed chair Powell leaning on ‘transitory’ for too long, and with the US jobs market remaining robust, US rates can stay higher for longer if needed to break inflation.

Looking at the latest DXY monthly chart shows little in the way of resistance ahead. Prior monthly highs may slow any move higher but as these were made around 20 years ago their effect in slowing any further rise in the DXY are likely limited. The US dollar looks overbought but that doesn’t mean that it won’t move higher as the greenback remains the currency of choice.

US DOLLAR (DXY) MONTHLY PRICE CHART – SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

US Dollar (DXY) Rally – The Cleanest Shirt in the Dirty Laundry Basket

 

Sep 5, 2022 | DailyFX
Nick Cawley, Strategist

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