Jump to content

Hang Seng extends recovery as China's economic turmoil continues

Recommended Posts

Hong Kong saw the Hang Seng Index jump more than 2.70% on Friday, the best gain in two weeks.

1663052927707.jpgSource: Bloomberg
Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Tuesday 13 September 2022 

The Hang Seng and China's stock market returned from the long weekend with the risk-on sentiment as global investors await the US consumer price data for August.

Hang Seng weekly review

Hong Kong stocks made a spectacular recovery after plummeting for weeks. Falling to the five-month-low last Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index jumped more than 2.70% on Friday, the best day in two weeks.

Chin's CPI On September 9th, China reported its consumer prices for August. Prices rose at a slower-than-expected pace and an 18-month-low reading for producer inflation. The CPI increased 2.5% from the same month a year earlier, slower than 2.7% in July and the 2.8% average forecast. The reading was in line with the ascending prospect that the world's second-largest economy has been plagued by weakening domestic demand as the country continues to commit to its zero Covid policy.

1663052927762.JPGSource: Trading Economics

On the bright side, a lower inflation print is leaves more room for the People’s Bank of China to further ease its monetary policy, going in the opposite direction to most developed countries, in order to support local economic growth.

Hang Seng technical analysis

Despite last week’s strong rebound, the Hang Seng Index is still placed below the 20-day SMA, which could hold as resistance for the near term. Looking at the bigger picture, the downtrend stays enacted as illustrated in the sliding trajectory. If the momentum remains, a breaking higher will see the price retest the 50-day line near the 20000 key mark. However, in the event of a backfoot, key support appears to 19158, where the May low sits.

1663052927771.JPGSource: TradingView
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 03/06/23 20:25
  • Posts

    • I don't know but it looks like a really awesome service Because I have come across all sorts of mixers in my work  
    • Charting the Markets: 2 June Indices rally as US agrees debt ceiling bill. EUR/USD, GBP/USD rally while EUR/GBP stabilises as US debt ceiling bill is passed. And WTI recoups recent losses while gold, silver on track for first weekly advance. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 June 2023               This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
    • It was a blockbuster number yesterday for the ADP private payrolls, showing 278,000 jobs opened in May, while forecasts had been for 170,000.  Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 June 2023 IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor suggests a similar upside surprise could see almost 300,000 jobs created under the non-farm payroll count with estimates for 190,000 job creations. The unemployment rate is seen rising one notch to 3.5%. (Video Transcript) NPFs: what to expect Could yesterday's strong private payrolls number from the ADP reading give us an insight into the potential upside risk to today's non-farm payrolls? That report from ADP yesterday showed 278,000 jobs opened in May - forecasts had been for 170,000. Now the NFP expectations, 190,000 job creations are forecast for the month of May proportionately using that ADP surprise. That would mean an upside reading for NFPs close to 300,000. Why the increase? Now, the unemployment rate is seen rising one notch to 3.5%. Why is that rising? When you've got that rise in the number of job creations, the unemployment rate is not taking the same data that the jobs numbers themselves are being produced from average hourly earnings. We're looking there for that to go up 0.3% month-on-month, 4.4% year-on-year, still below the rate of inflation. Now, this chart shows the unemployment rate back to pre-Covid-19 levels. It's clear that jobs have been created at an appreciable rate and this alongside a relatively strong GDP number and inflation coming down, there may yet be a soft landing for the US economy. But if the Federal Reserve (Fed) does continue to raise rates, things may get a little bit more sticky for the economy and a little bit more difficult to predict. This is a comparison of fed funds rates and US consumer price inflation (CPI) since January 2021. So you can see here the rate at which the US central bank has been piling the pressure on the monetary markets with that rise to five and a quarter percent. And at the same time, the CPI number is coming down, which is a good thing, but it's still not down to the 2% level, 4.9% is a long way away still from the 2% target. So the Fed is entitled still to have an excuse to raise interest rates. US dollar basket Let's take a look at what's been happening with the US dollar basket. Yesterday, we saw a pullback coming through as we saw money going into risk assets because of that rubber stamping from the Senate or the vote in the Senate to approve the budget that's now gone for the presidential seal. EUR/USD And we've seen a second day in a row of losses or the euro for the dollar basket as far as the euro/dollar is concerned, bouncing away from that 76.4% retracement. And I think now, you will have been stopped out if you were short on this, you would have been stopped out on this and hopefully you would have got some profits on the way down. So that's where things are ahead of non-farm payrolls out today at 13:30 UK time. And we will be live on the IG platform at 13:25 today.
  • Create New...